Wait...what just happened?
Are the Knicks maybe not terrible? Is this good? Help.
You know what my favorite thing about the 2012-13 Knicks team was, aside from the fact that they were, you know…good?
It’s that they were so damn straightforward.
Everything about that season was simple, from the team’s big picture goals all the way down to their style of play. I didn’t wake up every morning finding myself asking complex, existential questions that left me with a headache before I’d even had a sip of coffee.
I also never woke up as shell-shocked from a game result as I did today. That Knicks team, with all its firepower, topped out at 125 points (you may remember that crazy Sunday early afternoon affair in Oklahoma City).
Yesterday, against a Hawks team that looked like, well…that looked like we did two weeks ago, New York threw up 143, a number that hasn’t had relevance to me since I had a beeper and my high school girlfriend would page me with those digits on the regular and it would just warm my little heart.
I found myself yelling “I love you” at the TV screen a lot last night, which hasn’t happened much this season but has been increasing of late. It’s been two months’ worth of many emotions, and more than that, many wonderings, ponderings, queries and otherwise confusing subplots about a franchise that thought it had it all figured out six months ago, but that since the night of June 30, has routinely left us all scrambling to figure out what the hell’s going on out there.
On that note, here’s a current Top 10 list, by my rudimentary estimation, of the most important questions many of us are now asking ourselves:
10. Are the Knicks - now 3-3 under new head coach Mike Miller, with a nearly dead even net rating - better than we thought?
9. Does it matter if they are?
8. Is New York still benefiting from the dead cat bounce of a new coach, or is this more the product of a player’s only meeting that coincided with the change?
7. Was David Fizdale really that bad (or conversely, is Mike Miller really this good)?
6. If Elfrid Payton had been healthy all season, would Fiz still have a job (and is it a happy coincidence that Elf wasn’t, and Fiz doesn’t?)
5. How does this effect the trade deadline?
4. If the goal coming into this season was to be a respectable organization, both on and off the court, did that goal evaporate just because of the grotesque failure on each front through the first 22 games, or does it remain?
3. How different would the narrative of the season (and surrounding the organization at large) be if they had played this brand of basketball since opening night?
2. Do we all need to reconsider our collective denigration of the front office that assembled this roster, or…
1. Would continued strong play actually be the worst thing for the franchise, as it would keep the men who assembled this team employed, perhaps at the expense of someone better suited for the job?
I don’t pretend to know the answer to any of these questions, but before we get to the game categories, let me say this: I said repeatedly over the rough opening stretch of the season that things are never as bad as they seem during the worst times and never as good as they seem during the best times. That’s just as true today as it was then.
Still…for all the hand-wringing, all the snide tweets, and all the national media eulogies, the Knicks just saw their locker room have a player’s only meeting in which certain guys called out the biggest names on the team (Julius Randle and RJ Barrett specifically, as reported by Stefan Bondy and which I 100% believe to be true). By all indications, they’ve internalized the accountability edict resulting from that meeting, to the point that it may have turned around their season.
I always talk about culture as being something undefined but that you know it when you see it. That is culture, and whether the seeds of it are starting to germinate because of the decisions the front office made over the summer or despite them, it seems to be happening. For every one of us who has spent time wondering whether this whole operation would always be a lost cause under this owner, that is as refreshing a sign as anything that happened on the court last night.
It’s why, regardless of your opinion on any of the above questions, what’s happening right now absolutely matters, and why it would be in the best interest of all parties involved (fans included) if they kept this train moving for as long as it’ll go.
Maybe they get blown out Friday and Saturday against the Heat and Bucks, two well-oiled machines that will not resemble the opponent we saw yesterday. If that’s the case, so be it, and let the chips continue to fall where they may.
But I’m curious to see if maybe this team has another surprise or two left in them. Because don’t they always.
On to the categories…
One Big Thing (well, two)
Some Lost Kids, Showing Signs
Between Kevin Knox and Dennis Smith Jr., it’s unclear who needed a good game more heading into last night.
DSJ’s value had never been lower, as he looked like a player who not only didn’t remember what made him the top recruit in the nation once upon a time, but didn’t exist in the same body either.
Knox, meanwhile, had shown recent signs of progress, but nothing to quash the fears that New York may have blown a lottery pick on a guy who would never start a meaningful game in his professional life.
Much like the team as a whole, the questions about each player still remain after last night…but boy, was it nice to see major signs of life from each.
Let’s start with Knox, who reminded everyone why he got drafted ninth overall after a year at Kentucky mostly spent resembling a bright but wholly unformed lump of clay:
That kind of coast to coast ability isn’t supposed to come in a 6’8”, 215 pound package, nor is the touch required to pull off a pass like this - the second game in a row he’s put one in a spot where only his Go Go Gadget Arms teammate could get it:
That this second play came when the game had already devolved into a Rookie Sophomore All Star Weekend spectacle is almost immaterial. If there’s one thing that’s been lacking in Knox’s game through one and a quarter seasons, it’s basketball instinct. Here, he didn’t think; he reacted.
There are still warts, like when Knox fell asleep on a Hawks transition opportunity in the first quarter, but more consistent offensive production will make it easier to handle the hairpin turns on what remains a steep learning curve.
Just like Knox, not everything from Dennis Smith Jr. was perfect last night. He had three turnovers in just 13 minutes, and his first free throw attempt nearly broke the backboard.
But the fact that he was still plus 16 in that short amount of time despite those turnovers wasn’t an accident. Smith was playing his brand of basketball. It isn’t always pretty, but it’s authentic, and any progress he makes needs to start from that place.
As Mike Miller said after the game, Smith came in an played fast, pressing the issue every chance he got. The Knicks played with a pace of 120.16 with DSJ in the game last night, which was easily the highest on the team. He doesn’t play with the precision of Ntilikina or the wherewithal of Payton, but what he does well, no one else on this roster can do.
Perhaps even more encouraging, at least for him: when the spectacular wasn’t available, he took the easy play:
Mike Miller now has three point guards who all deserve time. Speaking of which…
Humble Suggestion
Play all three point guards every night.
Is it realistic? On it’s face, maybe not. But as I mentioned above, these three players are different enough that occasionally playing them at the same time can and should work.
There are 48 minutes in a game. If Miller overlaps each of his point guards 4 minutes with another one, he can get each of them roughly 20 minutes a night. That seems manageable.
Of course it won’t work out exactly this way, but the effort should at least be made. Too often under Fiz, there were far too many “dem’s da breaks” decisions that lead to players being on the outside looking in when it felt undeserved.
Thus far, Miller has avoided these types of situations. Let’s see if he can keep it up.
Stats of the Night (well, the last 6 nights)
+ 2.6 / - 10.4
49.1 % / 64.1 %
Let’s break these down:
The first set of numbers are the net ratings for the Knicks with Julius Randle on and off the court in the six games since Mike Miller took over. The plus 13 points per 100 possessions difference is the largest on the team over that span (with Marcus Morris trailing ever so slightly at 12.8).
The second set of numbers represents the Knicks assist rate over that same six-game stretch with and without Randle. So…yeah.
In short, New York has been a much, much better team when Julius has been out there since Miller took over, albeit still playing a style of ball that isn’t always appealing to the eye. Randle’s first several shot attempts last night reminded you that for all of the progress they’ve shown on offense under Miller, there are still a handful of possessions every night that make you shake your head.
But overall, Randle is in a good place. Would we like to eliminate more of the ISO’s and see the occasional screen that isn’t slipped? Yes. Yes we would.
But we’ll take what we can get, for now at least.
Made me Smile
I mean, how can you not look at this and just have an absolute shit-eating grin plastered across your face:
There aren’t many humans alive, if any, who can pull that type of thing off.
Last night was a great reminder that for as much as he’s shown already, Mitchell Robinson may still just be scratching the surface. And to think folks were ready to find his replacement when he was struggling early in the year.
Patience, folks. It pays off.
RJ Barrett is Awesome
We’ve gone away from this category of late, but there’s never been a better time to go back to it after Barrett just posted his career high of 27 points on 13 (!) shots.
According to Basketball Reference, Barrett is the youngest rookie ever to score as much on as few attempts. For all the concerns over his efficiency, he’s also still on pace to become just the ninth rookie in the last 16 years to average 14 points, five boards, two dimes and one steal per game. Here’s the full list:
That’s obviously a wide range of outcomes, and we should note that no one else had overall shooting numbers as low as Barrett does right now.
But they also weren’t that far off. RJ’s effective field goal percentage is at .436 right now; LeBron ended his rookie year at .438, Melo at .449. Evans and Cousins were both lower.
Keep hope alive, RJ Stans.
Final Thought
It’s impossible not to overreact a little bit to a game where everything comes together about as perfectly as possible. When you’re a fan, and you’ve had to crawl through 500 yards of the most foul-smelling shit imaginable, reaching daylight is a glorious happening, even if you do still reek of turds.
But for as much as we should all probably take last night’s dominance with a grain of salt (and a bar of soap), it was a reminder that through all the nonsense, this team never let go of the rope.
I stand by my stance yesterday - that the notion of this front office making potentially large scale alterations to the roster is something we should all be fearful of - as much now as I did then. One night doesn’t earn back the trust that we all granted, perhaps haphazardly, before it was vanquished (gradually for some, instantaneously for others) starting on June 30.
But it’s a step in the right direction. A few more of those, and maybe we’ll have to reconsider our stances yet again.
Player Spotlight
For today’s PredictionStrike Player Spotlight, a reminder: don’t listen to anything I say, ever, not even a little bit, when it comes to gambling.
Here’s what I wrote about Trae Young yesterday when I advocated for folks to wait until after last night’s game to buy shares in him:
Due to New York’s desultory record and still low-ranked defense, Young is projected to get 42.63 fantasy points tonight, which is quite a jump from his 34.0 average. He’s currently trading at $2.06 a share. I say that after Frank puts on the clamps tonight, that price dips below two bucks, making it the perfect time to buy low.
Naturally, Young blew his projections out of the water after scoring 42 points and dishing out eight assists. He’s now trading at $2.20 a share, up 6 percent over yesterday’s price.
If you’re smart, you’ll continue to read this part of the newsletter and do the exact opposite of whatever I suggest. No need to send part of your winnings my way either; a simple thanks will do just fine.
And as a reminder, if you’re not yet on the PredictionStrike bandwagon, just click here and use code KFS when signing up to get $10 with your first deposit of $10 or more.
News & Notes
compiled by Michael Schatz (@mschatz99)
Matthew Miranda really hit the nail on the head in his Posting and Toasting recap from last night when he went through each Knick possession from the first quarter vs Atlanta. Check out the whole article, but here’s the part I’m talking about, which drives home just how much progress New York has made under Miller:
Reggie Bullock is almost back. Yay for shooting!
On This Date: Stephon Marbury scores game-winning finger roll against the Utah Jazz
by Vivek Dadhania (@vdadhania)
Stephon Marbury lifted the undermanned Knicks team to an improbably 97-96 victory against Deron Williams and the Utah Jazz. The Knicks dressed only 8 players for the game due to the suspensions from the melee against the Nuggets only 2 days prior. 4 players – Nate Robinson, Jerome James, Mardy Collins, & Jared Jeffries – were suspended for the game. Additionally, starters Steve Francis & Quentin Richardson were sidelined due to injury.
Thanks for reading everyone…see y’all tomorrow!