Yes, That Happened...
...but we've got one more to go.
Good morning. Or is it night? Everything is running together.
Oh, the Knicks can win the NBA championship tomorrow evening in San Antonio. Read that again if you need to.
But first, we must get to today’s newsletter, and my top 13 most unheralded moments from a comeback for the ages, plus Stars of the Game.
Lastly, shout out to the KFS merch department for getting these OG tees out in no time, with an assist from the legendary Mike Breen. What a call.
Reliving A Dream
Manic. Delirious. Euphoric. Hysterical.
Yes, we were all there. Probably still are, one sunup removed.
That’s not why Game 4 was a lifetime moment though.
It was a lifetime moment because you could pick a random win on a Tuesday night in February of 2006, or 2016, or 2026, and the odds are that all of the above descriptors would still apply, at least if you’re reading this newsletter. We earn the right to lose our minds in the biggest moments by bringing the same level of passion to the smallest ones. It is a disease, but it is our disease.
Which brings us to today, a day to reflect and appreciate, but also to anticipate, as the job is not yet finished. If you don’t believe me, just ask Jalen Brunson.
As far as adjustments or keys to Game 5, I think we’re now deep enough into the series where we know what needs to be done. On defense, continue to have appropriate aggression, and be ready to weather a mini-shooting storm to keep your shell intact. Nothing easy, stay in front, and keep those close outs disciplined. Most of all, don’t make your life on defense harder than it needs to be, and please clean up the goddamn turnovers. Offensively, the playoffs and finals leader in total plus/minus must stay on the court, so please KAT, do not give the zebras an excuse to ding you with an early foul. I’d give Deuce and Clarkson a shot in the first half, but be ready to pivot quickly. Shoot when open. Quick decisions remain paramount, which is why Jose Alvarado may have to see his first 20+ minute game of the playoffs. Get up the floor fast, and trust the pass.
Ultimately, the Game 5 winner likely won’t be decided by X’s and O’s any more than Game 4 was. I just pray that it won’t take a Halley’s Comet level rarity to secure New York’s first title since 1973.
How unlikely was this win? After Wemby converted a put-back that only Wemby could convert with 9:33 left in the game, the Spurs had a 99.6 percent chance of winning according to ESPN.com:
But it gets better.
My good friend Ray Marcano did some internet digging, and found that according to Second Spectrum and NBA tracking data, the probability of a player in OG Anunoby’s circumstances successfully tipping in that game winning bucket was between 12 and 15 percent.
So if we take that 12 to 15 percent and apply it to the 0.4 percent chance that remained with 9:33 to go, by my math, the Knicks win that game roughly 1 in 5000 times. They have played 6691 games as a franchise, regular season and playoffs combined.
But hey…if you’re going to use your one chance, what better time to use it?
Of course, so much needed to go right for the OG’s tip to even matter. More than that, a lot needed to go wrong for San Antonio, which is where we’ll start our retrospective.
Do I find it fitting that one day after the league decided not to upgrade a clear flagrant foul on Victor Wembanyama, the Knicks began their comeback with two free throws that came as a result of a Wemby flagrant?
Why yes. Yes I do.
After watching Vic in this postseason, there’s little doubt in my mind that he’s an immature, dirty player who thinks his status as the GOAT-in-waiting gives him the right to play by his own rules. Count me as shocked - shocked - that a Frenchman has been undone by his own arrogance.
After Towns hit both free throws, JB missed a three, which led to three consecutive attempts around the rim for Keldon Johnson, none of which went down. It was one of those little moments that make you raise an eyebrow, like “if this thing ever gets interesting, we might look back at those misses and wonder.” And here we are.
From there, we got our first real push of the comeback, an OG semi-transition dunk…
…followed by a Brunson triple:
For as much as the Wemby flagrant may have kick-started things, on the Anunoby flush, you can see the first signs of the big guy tiring out. Either that, or he has decided that challenging OG at the rim is not a business he’s willing to invest in. Hard to blame him.
