10-Game Temperature Check
Let's see how the Knicks stack up approximately 1/8 of the way through the season. Plus, the Hawks are on tap, and Zach LaVine may be on the block.
Good morning! Hope everyone’s week is starting OK, and everyone is in the mood to crunch some numbers with me, because what could possibly be more fun than that?
In today’s edition:
Hawks / Knicks preview
Why the Knicks shouldn’t trade for Zach LaVine, and a look at who else might
Some interesting comments from former GM Scott Perry
A 10-Game Statistical Check-in, featuring a big picture overview, in-depth looks at the defense and offense, lineup data, some notable individual numbers (both good and bad), and a look ahead to the next part of the schedule.
Here we go…
Game Night
Tonight: Knicks at Hawks
When: 7:30 pm
Injury Report: The Hawks played last night in Detroit, and Trae Young sat out the game - partially because its the first night of a back to back, and partially because his wife just had a baby. You can bet he’ll suit up tonight.
As for the Knicks, RJ Barrett is listed as questionable with a migraine. That’s worrisome. This feels like a game New York should win if RJ plays, but one that becomes a lot dicier if he sits.
Halftime Zoom: Eff Trae Young. Here’s the link.
What to watch for: The Hawks have roughly the opposite statistical profile as the Knicks, with the league’s 6th ranked offense and 16th ranked defense. We know New York, and Jalen Brunson in particular, will relentlessly hunt Trae Young. The better question is how. In their matchup a few weeks ago, Brunson tied a career high with 12 attempts from deep and set a new career mark with eight makes. That stands in stark contrast to last year against the Hawks, when Jalen attempted 16 threes over four games, making just three. We’ll see which way he leans tonight.
🗣️ News & Notes ✍️
🏀 The Bulls and Zach LaVine may be nearing a breakup. According to Shams, “there’s been increased openness from the organization and player about exploring a trade.” He added that the Lakers, Heat and Sixers are expected to show some level of interest.
Let’s get the Knicks angle out of the way first: no. Just, no. For a few reasons:
The Knicks already have four 20+ usage guys. Even if you could add a fifth under the cap without swapping out one of Jalen, Julius, RJ or IQ, there is only one ball, last I checked. LaVine, like New York’s core four, is a perfectly fine playmaker for his position, but prefers to operate with the ball in his hands. The whole hasn’t been greater than the sum of the parts with three-ball dominant guys in Chicago. Five in New York? No thanks.
Defensively, he would be yet another player whose weaknesses the Knicks would need to overcome. Finding a scenario where that is worth it, considering all the other trade offs, is diffciult.
Because the Knicks would need to send back at least $36.4 million to Chicago1, they’d realistically have to swap out one of Brunson, Barrett or Randle (plus Evan Fournier’s salary) in any deal.
Brunson ain’t going anywhere. Before the season, you probably could have talked me into an RJ-centered trade that made sense, but that ship has sailed. That fact that Barrett makes $70 million less than LaVine over the next four seasons is all the more reason to shut down any such notion.
Randle is the power forward version of LaVine, and vice versa. Even if the Knicks had a backup four to slot into the starting five if they moved Randle, this is one instance where I’d rather stick with the devil I know. Julius at least jives with the team’s identity: a physical group that will gradually wear you down through brute force if nothing else. LaVine is the far better shooter but I don’t think the trade off is worth it, especially given their respective contracts.
Is there a three-team deal out there that sends Randle (or RJ, I suppose) to Chicago and brings some other star to New York?
Let’s put aside the question of whether the Bulls would have any interest in Randle and skip to the most interesting part of this story, to me at least: where is the team that is dying to get in on Zach LaVine - a bad defensive guard who likes/needs the ball, isn’t going to be a top-two option on a championship caliber team, and is owed $178 million through the 2026-27 season?
I posed the question on the KFS Chat yesterday and got a few answers, none of which I loved (no offense to anyone who suggested them). The Lakers were the most popular answer, but haven’t we already seen the formula that leads LeBron and AD to a title? It’s surrounding them with defense, just enough shooting, and predominantly guys who can be effective without the ball. “What about Kyrie” is an easy retort, but at least he knows how to play off of LeBron. I’m not sure I trust LaVine to do it as well, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Other teams make less sense. The Sixers are rolling with their big 2.5 (throwing Tobias some love here), so despite Shams report, I’d be surprised if this is where they cashed in their chips.
The same goes for Miami, who essentially said “thanks but no thanks” to Bradley Beal. Is LaVine someone they’d feel markedly different about?
This would be the panic move of all panic moves for Memphis, and that’s not their organizational DNA. They also don’t have the salaries.
A few people brought up the Pacers, but do they really want to take the ball out of Tyrese Haliburton’s hands unless its for a true star player? Historically, that organization is also all about the slow play. Similarly, I don’t think Orlando would fast track their development for such an imperfect (albeit supremely talented) player.
Lastly, I can’t for the life of me see Golden State giving up on Klay for LaVine of all people.
So what are we left with? Brooklyn, for Simmons’ contract and some picks? Meh. A Pascal Siakam challenge trade, with Pat Williams going…somewhere, I guess?
I guess we’re back to the Lakers, and essentially a salary dump that nets Chicago a distant first. If that seems light for LaVine, ask yourself whether any contending team would be banging down Chicago’s door to get him.
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