$100 Million Man?

A recent report indicates Isaiah Hartenstein's market may be higher than the Knicks are allowed to pay. Is there another team that might break the bank?

Good morning! Believe it or not, we’re a little more than three weeks from the NBA draft (and with it, the accompanying draft content right here in the KFS Newsletter). Right after that comes the start of free agency, which is the focus of today’s newsletter. More specifically, the Knicks have a center on their roster who is about to get a massive raise. New York can open their checkbook, but it might not be enough.

Today, we explore just how worried they should be.

Assessing Isaiah’s Market

While re-signing OG Anunoby remains priority the top priority for the Knicks this summer, keeping Isaiah Hartenstein is a definite No. 2 on that list, if not a 1B.

All season long, we’ve pondered whether a cap space team might swoop into to give I-Hart the first big payday of his career, and on Friday, we finally got a bit of clarity courtesy of Yahoo’s Jake Fischer:

“…league executives and cap strategists are projecting Hartenstein will be able to draw at least $80 million, and perhaps upward of $100 million, from a team hoping to steal Hartenstein from Madison Square Garden.”

As we went through in great detail last week, the Knicks can pay their starting center up to four years and $72.5 million, although that number should come with an asterisk. A little over 10 percent of what New York can pay Hartenstein will be in the form of likely incentives. These are the same likely incentives I-Hart has reached in each of the last two years: playing more than 1,350 minutes for a team that wins at least 40 games and goes to the playoffs. There’s no reason to believe he won’t hit those incentives again, but it might be a consideration in the upcoming negotiations.

On the bright side, Isaiah has said he’d like to stay in New York, all things being equal. While it’s certainly possible that a difference of a few million dollars could make a difference to him, one might assume that a team trying to pry him away would need to offer a contract in the high 80’s, at least.

If Hartenstein even ops for the most years he can get, which itself isn’t a guarantee. As many have speculated, I-Hart could opt for a shorter deal lasting three total years, with the third season being a player option. That would allow the Knicks to acquire Isaiah’s full Bird rights and give him a much more lucrative extension in a few seasons.

This would require Hartenstein betting on himself in a big way, but he just turned 26 years old, so it’s not out of the question he makes that bet.

Still, threats loom. Based on Keith Smith’s current projections, eight teams can generate at least $20 million in cap space this summer:

Today, I’m going to go through each one to assess the threat level that they nab Isaiah Hartenstein away from Thibs & Co.

Let’s start at the top, with the team that has the most cash to blow…

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have, at one time or another, employed every center, none of which have been very notable until now. After lots of money spent on much mediocrity, they seem to be set at the position with Jalen Duren, who they acquired from New York on draft night two years ago.

Isaiah Stewart is also on the books for $15 million next season, the first of a four-year, $60 million extension that hasn’t even kicked in yet. They were derided for playing Stewart at the four as often as they did, and with the emergence of Ausar Thompson, one would figure that experiment is over. As a result, Stewart will likely see the majority of his minutes as the backup five.

The only scary thought here is that the Pistons are so lost in the woods that nothing can ever be completely ruled out with them.

Threat level: 1/5

Philadelphia 76ers

Wouldn’t it be something if the Sixers, after striking out on all of their big name targets, pivoted to the best available wing (Zach LaVine, I’d guess) and then turned their attention to screwing over the Knicks?

As devious as this would be, I just don’t see Daryl Morey spending $20 million annually on a guy who will play 10 minutes in a big playoff game if Joel Embiid is healthy (and if Embiid isn’t healthy in April, May and June, none of this will matter to them anyway).

Threat level: 1/5

Utah Jazz

Walker Kessler was a revelation in his inaugural NBA season, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting and gernering more All-Defense votes than the 3-time (now 4-time) Defensive Player of the Year winner he was traded for. The Jazz seemed set at the center position for years to come.

That script contained an unexpected turn this season though, as Kessler came off the bench for 42 of the 64 games he played. Instead, the Jazz featured John Collins as their de facto starting five, perhaps to juice the spacing, perhaps to juice Collins’ trade value. Neither worked all that well.

Signing Hartenstein would make quite a statement with Kessler set to enter the penultimate year of his rookie contract, after which he can negotiate an extension. I wouldn’t rule it out, but this still seems highly unlikely.

Threat level: 1/5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Here’s what Fischer had to say about the Thunder’s potential pursuit of I-Hart:

“Oklahoma City has been the potential destination most mentioned by team executives after rebounding woes plagued the Thunder during their second-round defeat to the Mavericks. Dallas bested OKC 287-241 on the glass over those six games.

In one respect, Hartenstein would seem incongruent with the rest of the Thunder’s roster and playing style, as Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault oversaw a drive-and-kick offense with Chet Holmgren at center and all five OKC players boasting the ability to create off the dribble. Hartenstein is not that, but his prowess as a dribble-handoff screener and passer — constantly slinging back-door bounces to Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo — could introduce an added dimension to what already exists with the Thunder. Hartenstein has also shown an ability to coexist with another big man amid various lineup structures with New York.”

As Fischer alludes to at the end of the blurb, we saw firsthand how a center doesn’t need to shoot threes in order to space the floor. Thanks in large part to Hartenstein’s ability to serve as an offensive hub, the Knicks often survived long stretches with multiple additional players who didn’t space the floor in the traditional sense.

More than that, based on what we saw this season, Hartenstein’s ideal role probably has him playing between 25-30 minutes a night as opposed to 30-35. Given how conservative the Thunder organization is with their players (they stuck with a 10-man rotation for almost the entirety of the playoffs, and rarely pushed Chet over 34 minutes), it’s fair to assume that Hartenstein and Holmgren would only share the court for 12-18 minutes a game anyway.

The bigger question is whether the Thunder have it in them to make this sort of cash outlay to what is effectively an ancillary piece. They’re not in danger of paying the luxury tax next season or even in ‘25-26, but max extensions for Chet and J-Dub will kick in in 2026, which is one year before SGA’s next deal starts.

That’s surely a concern to some degree, but the Thunder could very well view this as a problem they don’t need to worry about. In two more years, Holmgren figures to bulk up significantly, to the point that Hartenstein may be expendable by then.

So then it really comes down to whether this is how they want to spend their money…and that doesn’t just mean in free agency.

No, there’s no unrestricted free agent who fits OKC’s needs and timeline (other than OG Anunoby, who hopefully won’t be tempted to leave the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden), but that’s not the only way to use cap space. The Thunder have very little by way of fungible salary, and while Josh Giddey figures to be the centerpiece of any trade, he only makes $8.3 million next season. If there’s a big money player who becomes available, Oklahoma City’s cap space will be needed to absorb that sort of contract.

And if no such player materializes? The Thunder could do what they’ve always done and take on another team’s unwanted money in exchange for more / better future draft goodies.

So yes, there are several reasons why Sam Presti might not decide to bark up Isaiah’s tree, but they still have to be considered one of the main threats to pry him away.

Threat level: 4/5

Orlando Magic

Here’s how much faith the Magic had in Wendell Carter Jr at the start of the playoffs: after he started 48 of 55 games for them this season and 182 of 196 since he was traded from Chicago in 2021, Jamahl Mosley moved WCJ to the bench in favor of Jonathan Isaac.

Granted, the move didn’t go great, and Carter was back starting by Game 3. He averaged over 30 minutes a night in the final five games of the series, and certainly wasn’t the reason they eventually lost in seven.

That said, the decision to bench Carter was telling, as was their pursuit of a certain free agent center two summers ago even after Wendell had a very successful first full season in Orlando. Per Jake Fischer, Hartenstein “nearly signed with Orlando” in July of 2022. Hartenstein said after he chose the Knicks that he could have gotten more money from another team (presumably the Magic) but picked New York because he thought it gave him a better chance of playing for a winner.

Fast forward two years, and the young Magic just went 47-35 with a core of players mostly on their rookie deals.

Even if his initial concern has been aleviated, there are still reasons to believe this won’t happen. For one, that Magic are as desperate for perimeter playmaking as any (decent) team in the NBA. Spending big money on Hartenstein would make it more difficult to facilitate a deal for the same reason it’s hard for OKC: the lack of fungible salary.

They also have a lot of balls in the air at the center spot.

I mentioned Carter, who is owed $11.95 million and $10.85 million in each of the next two seasons. It’s no big deal to pay a backup center that kind of money, but then what is Orlando doing with Moe Wagner, who has an $8 million team option?

Then there’s Jonathan Isaac, who played alongside Moe in the Magic’s bang-up backup brigade. His $17.4 million expiring salary for next season is fully non-guaranteed, but the guarantee date isn’t until January of 2025, so there’s a good chance the Magic keep it on the books unless they know they have someone better to spend the money on.

Orlando could easily find a new home for Carter Jr if they want to make a play for Hartenstein, but again, that doesn’t really solve their bigger issues, and they’d need to significantly cut into their cap space to entice him.

Like the Thunder, the Magic’s bill is also coming due soon, with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs both extension eligible this summer, and Paolo coming up a year from now. This fun young team is about to get very expensive.

Given how teams aren’t exactly climbing over themselves to acquire fairly paid, league-average starting centers these days, the notion that Orlando can just sign Hartenstein now and move him when the books get more cumbersome doesn’t really hold water (an issue for the Thunder as well, should they contemplate the same tactic).

All things considered, there are reasons to fear Orlando will be heard from.

Threat level: 3/5

San Antonio Spurs

This one is the real wild card.

Hartenstein might be a perfect fit on the Spurs. Offensively, he’s tailor made for how San Antonio has always played. Couldn’t you envision him playing the Boris Diaw role on that majestic 2014 Spurs offense? On defense, he could protect the rim and allow Wemby to roam off the ball as the most dangerous free safety since Ronnie Lott.

And yet, there are issues. Like the Magic, the Spurs want to upgrade their perimeter playmaking, and will probably need to inherit a large contract into their cap space to do so.

Speaking of the cap, San Antonio just inked Zach Collins to a fully guaranteed two-year, $35 million extension that won’t even kick in until next season. That probably wouldn’t be the easiest deal to move if they wanted to shift course to another center.

If they view Wemby as more of a center than a power forward, paying what it would take to get Hartenstein doesn’t really pass muster.

Threat level: 2/5

Charlotte Hornets

They just drafted Mark Williams, who is very promising and figures to be their starter moving forward.

Threat level: 0/5

Toronto Raptors

Jakob Poeltl is under contract for three more years at $19.5 million per season. He stagnated last year and doesn’t figure to be the easiest pact to move.

For as much as the Raps would surely like to screw over the team that’s suing them, I don’t see this one happening.

Threat level: 0/5

Conclusion

If I was a betting man, I’d wager that the man who has endeared himself to Knicks fans everywhere since his arrival from the West coast will be back on a new deal.

I also wouldn’t bet much. Hartenstein is damn good and seems to keep getting better. More than that, $20 million isn’t what it used to be, even for the NBA’s least premium position.

So…what’s the backup plan if New York can’t retain their beloved big man?

I’ll dive into one possible answer to that question tomorrow, in what will surely be the least popular newsletter I write all summer.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”