2024-25 Knicks Confidence Rankings

Plus, some rough injury news on Precious Achiuwa and a bevy of roster moves.

Good Morning, and congrats to the New York Liberty on the 2024 WNBA title! On the men’s side, the regular season is almost here, so what better time for a jumbo edition of the KFS newsletter. Here we go…

News & Notes

🏀 The season hasn’t even started yet and already the Knicks are feeling the brunt of injuries.

After pulling up lame on Friday night, Precious Achiuwa sustained a strained left hamstring and will be re-evaluated in 2-4 weeks according to the Knicks. “Re-evaluated” is different than “will return,” so it’s possible that Achiuwa will be out even longer than the 13 games New York plays between now and November 17, which is four weeks from yesterday. Optimistically, he could miss as few as a handful of games.

While not quite a devastating blow, Achiuwa figured to play anywhere from 14-16 minutes a night (if used exclusively as the backup four alongside Jericho Sims) to 20-25 minutes a night (if he served as both the backup four and five) to 30+ minutes (if Thibs gave in to Josh Hart’s whims about coming off the bench and started a bigger lineup with Achiuwa at power forward). Regardless of the exact total, Precious was - and eventually is - going to play a key role.

As for what they do now, there is a chance the Knicks feel confident in what they have in house and bypass the urge to sign someone off the street. In theory, Jericho Sims or Ariel Hukporti could step in as the backup center and play both behind KAT and alongside of him if he shifts to power forward for stretches when OG Anunoby sits. This would likely put the starter-who-plays-with-the-subs hat on Towns, which might be for the best. It would also put an immense amount of pressure on whichever big man gets that job, as they’d be playing north of 20 minutes every night.

Alternatively, Sims/Huk could be limited to whatever minutes Towns sits, and then New York simply goes small for a larger portion of the game.

The skeleton key to threading this needle might be the 6'8" Pacome Dadiet, who finished the season with a team leading 69.4 effective field goal percentage, albeit in just 45 minutes. He looked ready to real action against the Hornets and Wizards, but that’s a far cry from the slate of teams New York will face in the opening weeks.

Or perhaps the answer to replacing Achiuwa isn’t currently on the roster, which brings us to our next topic…

🏀 The Knicks made their final preseason roster moves before Saturday’s 5pm deadline, waiving their three remaining camp contracts belonging to Landry Shamet, T.J. Warren and Chuma Okeke. Per Ian Begley, Warren is heading to Westchester to join New York’s G-League club.

This gives the Knicks 12 players on their roster at the moment. The NBA minimum is 14, but teams can dip below that limit for up to 28 total days during the NBA season and up to 14 days at a time. The reporting suggests that New York will stick with 12 for the time being, possibly up to the max 14 days they are allowed.

At that point, one would expect Ariel Hukporti to be converted from his two-way contract to a standard NBA deal, which would get them up to 13. Maybe that timeline has moved up in light of the Achiuwa injury, but there’s no bar against Hukporti playing in games right off the bat, even if he’s still on a two-way.

As for the 14th and final roster spot, this could eventually go back to Shamet, although that’s less than a sure thing, especially with Precious hurting. While Shams reported that New York will “look to bring Shamet back once he recovers from dislocated shoulder,” Ian Begley reported that nothing “has been decided” on the Landry front and that the Knicks “would consider re-signing him if [the] rehab process goes well.” Both reports were before the Achiuwa news, although presumably New York had an idea of his condition when those reports came out.

Regardless, Shamet’s rehab is likely to take longer than 14 days, so New York will need to figure out something else in the meantime. Fred Katz suggests they may take advantage of the full 28-day period during which they can go under 14 players. Katz adds that going under 14 by multiple players (as they are now, with 12) doesn’t add additional days to the ledger. In other words, being two players under 14 for 24 hours still counts as one day, not two.

The reason they’re looking to do this is money, and specifically, valuable cap dollars under the second apron. For every day the Knicks are under the max of 14 players, they gain a few more dollars’ worth of flexibility with which to maneuver between now and June 30, when the NBA fiscal year resets for all 30 teams. That may not seem like a big deal, but for a team that could be a Hyundai Sonata away from the second apron by the end of the season, every dollar counts.

They have no shortage of options, but each of those options will involve a trade off. They could save the absolute most money by signing a 14th player with no NBA experience to a non-guaranteed deal and then waiving that player soon after, thus only incurring the pro-rated amount owed to a player with no service time, which is notably much less than what they’d have to pay a player with even one year of NBA experience¹. They could stay at 13 players for 14 more days and then sign another player with no NBA experience, potentially even converting a second two-way contract (either Kevin McCuller Jr or Jacob Toppin), and then keep that player for the rest of the year.

The problem with this strategy is that even though it saves the max number of dollars, it also leaves them perilously thin. Here’s the more likely scenario, as far as I see it:

• convert Hukporti before 14 days

• sign a second player with no NBA experience to a non-guaranteed deal before 14 days

• keep that player on the roster for as long as they can. That length of time will likely depend on whether anyone gets hurt, and their need for an additional player who can actually contribute as opposed to serving as a warm body

• eventually waive the non-guaranteed guy, ideally when Shamet’s recovery process is coming to an end, and dip back down to 13 players for 14 days

• re-sign Shamet after the second 14 days, or, if either Shamet’s recovery didn’t go as well as expected or someone like TJ Warren really impresses them in Westchester, sign Warren or a different vet to an NBA deal for the rest of the season. Warren, according to Begley, “had support” among some Knicks coaches and the front office to make the final roster

Of course, all of these machinations could go up in smoke if there’s someone they really want right now - perhaps a guy like Lonnie Walker IV, who was just waived by Boston, or Marcus Morris, who feels like the best available option to replace what they’ll be missing from Achiuwa.

In short, the situation is fluid. More importantly, one would assume that New York’s willingness to start the season with 12 players (two of which are the injured Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa) means they have faith in rookies Tyler Kolek and Pacome Dadiet. While it’s possible they cut the rotation to eight guys, even having a rookie as the “next man up” counts as a vote of confidence.

For the reason why that level of confidence might exist, let’s talk about Friday night…

Friday Recap: Knicks 117, Wizards 118

• New York’s starters began the game, closed the first half, and opened the third, but didn’t play the fourth. Their defensive effort & engagement was poor.

• Deuce McBride was a healthy scratch as Jericho Sims, Tyler Kolek and Pacome Dadiet all saw first half minutes in addition to regular subs Payne & Achiuwa

• Dadiet impressed early while Kolek made some big baskets late in a close game

• Mikal Bridges was 0-for-10 from behind the arc

• Josh Hart is perplexed

With a couple of exceptions, the less said about this game, the better.

You could look at New York’s starters’ noticeably subpar defensive effort in one of two ways. Either this is a team ready for the regular season that just wanted to get through this game without taxing themselves too much, or that they have a ways to go before they’re a functional, coherent defensive unit. After the game, Thibs’ said the D “has to be a lot better,” so you know where he comes down. Tuesday night in Boston, facing off against last season’s No. 1 ranked offense, will be telling.

Adding to the worry are two of New York’s starting wings, with Josh Hart saying he feels “lost” in the offense and Mikal Bridges admitting he’s still trying to “figure out” a jumper that seems to have gone awry. More on them in a bit. Precious Achiuwa’s injury, sustained midway through the fourth quarter when he came up limping and went immediately to the locker room, added injury to insult.

On the bright side, the Knicks appear to have some rookies who are ahead of schedule. Pacome Dadiet yet again looked good, displaying solid movement off the ball and hitting two 3-pointers in three attempts. It’s tough to tell how his defense will hold up against better competition, but thus far he doesn’t look overmatched. Thibs notably gave Dadiet (along with Cam Payne) extended run with Brunson, KAT and OG in the first half after first turning to Tyler Kolek and Jericho Sims off the bench.

The other positive was Kolek, who shook off an uncharacteristically rough first half to score 13 fourth quarter points and nearly bring home a victory. It should not surprise anyone if either he or Dadiet sees minutes on Tuesday night.

Speaking of Tuesday, let’s play a little game of “How we feeling?”…

2024-25 Knicks Confidence Rankings

Mikal Bridges

Let’s start with the man of the hour who has so many people clutching their orange and blue pearls.

Bridges was 2-of-9 from deep heading into Friday night’s game, which saw the former Net hoist it 10 times from behind the arc and come up with a goose egg. In 474 regular season games, Bridges has never attempted more than eight threes without making at least one, so this is a new unofficial record.

After the game, James Edwards III asked New York’s newest swingman about what was going on with his shot:

“Ever since I got into the league, I’ve been trying to fix it back [to] normal since I was in college. It’s been seven years of, just, every day.”

When asked if it the shot feels normal right now, he replied:

“When I can out of college, I kind of tweaked it a little bit, and then my second year in the league, I had the hitch, and I’ve tried to build back from that ever since. So just trying to get it right.”

The hitch in Bridges’ shooting form actually didn’t come around until his third season, which DJ Zullo did a great job of capturing here, alongside one of the misses from Friday evening:

As we can see, it’s not a hitch as much as it is a higher release point, which alters the energy transfer from lower to upper body, as DJ explains:

The only question now is how long it will take Mikal to tinker his way back to a cleaner form, like the one he displayed last season in Brooklyn:

I have little doubt he gets there, although your guess is as good as mine as to how long that takes. With New York’s difficult opening stretch, it’s not hard to imagine a slow shooting start from Bridges costing the Knicks a game or two. That’s especially true with Mikal looking primed to get first crack at the starter who plays with the bench. If he struggles, those minutes could be rough sledding.

For that reason, my confidence scale isn’t a 5/5, but Bridges has been one of the surest things in the NBA for a long time. He’s going to be back to normal sooner rather than later.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 ½ out of 5

Josh Hart

Josh Hart had just finished off an unassuming preseason, even if it was short on counting stats. That is until he unloaded his innermost thoughts to Stefan Bondy:

Before we get nuts, let’s remember that Hart should be taken less seriously than a clown at a kindergartner’s birthday party. That said, this isn’t a complete troll job. Clearly he’s feeling out of sorts.

But Josh Hart isn’t paid $18 million to be an on-ball option. He’s paid to be a chaos agent, which he arguably does better than anyone in the league. Implied in that role is the need to self-start. With all due respect to Jalen Brunson’s comments yesterday, no one gets Hart’s motor going for him; it’s his activity that keeps everyone else at their best.

Benjy Ritholtz summed up what the ideal version of Hart looks like in this offense over the weekend with some helpful clips, but in short, it’s rim pressure, playmaking, rebounding and pace. None of this has much to do with “role,” although all that matters is what’s going on inside Josh’s head. If he feels like he can be the best version of Josh Hart coming off the bench, then I’m not sure we’re in a position to disagree.

Ultimately, like with Bridges, Hart will be fine. It just might take a while (see: the first ~20 games of last season). Recall that we went through this song and dance last year, and after voicing his frustration, he came out looking like the Josh Hart of old. I expect the same to happen now.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 out of 5

Jalen Brunson

Brunson finished the preseason as the NBA’s third leading scorer, with a better field goal percentage than anyone who averaged over 17 points per game. He looks primed for a run at the league MVP, provided his teammates can hold up their end of the bargain.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 out of 5

Karl-Anthony Towns

KAT didn’t exactly light the nets on fire, hitting 51.5 percent on twos and 17.4 percent on threes, but unlike Bridges, his form looks fine. I’m not concerned. More importantly, he seems pretty comfortable on offense for a guy still getting used to a new set of teammates. Despite the sixth worst effective field goal percentage in the league during preseason, the Knicks were still the ninth most efficient offense. A lot of that is simply due to the presence of Towns.

On defense, it seems very clear that KAT will be used almost exclusively in drop coverage, at least at the outset. While he’s no Mitchell Robinson, he was far from a disaster, and New York’s defensive woes are no more on his shoulders than anyone else’s.

Factoring in expected growing pains, it’s hard to feel too bad about where the big guy is at.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 out of 5

OG Anunoby

OG was one of two players (along with Andre Drummond) to play multiple preseason games and average at least 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks. He’s had a few off-ball snafus, but when he’s been locked in, it’s been a scary sight. As usual, it’s all about health with Anunoby.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 ½ out of 5

Deuce McBride

Take preseason individual net rating with several grains of salt, but no Knick had a higher one than Deuce.

Only four players hoisted more 3-point attempts per game in the preseason than McBride, who looks ready to be the driving force behind bench units. It speaks volumes that Thibs felt comfortable enough with his 6th man that he held him out of the preseason finale just to get a look at other guys. While certainly not as efficient as Brunson (47.9 eGF%), no other player looks as ready for prime time as Deuce.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 🏀 out of 5

Cam Payne

Payne looked like a jitterbug out there, keeping the backup offense moving whenever Brunson sat, but his shot was hit and miss and go go offense didn’t always get someplace good with him running the show. I think my biggest question at this point is how much time Thibs will try to buy with Payne running point in place of Brunson alongside multiple non-Hart starters. In conjunction with that, we’ve seen the Cam-Jalen backcourt a few times, not likely by accident. Having two point guards who can run pick & roll is never a bad thing provided it doesn’t take too much off your defense, and Payne has been a pain on that end of the court.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 🏀 ½ out of 5

Precious Achiuwa

This would have been four or four and a half basketballs, but goes down as an incomplete until further notice.

Jericho Sims

It’s surely not all on Sims, but New York’s defense imploded whenever he played this preseason, as his individual defensive rating was 113.7. Dadiet was next lowest among players who saw real minutes at 109.5. For as big as he looks, the intimidation around the rim simply isn’t there. The thought of him playing anything more than 8-10 minutes a game is tough to stomach right now.

Confidence meter: 🏀 out of 5

Tyler Kolek

I can’t shake the feeling that a backup unit featuring him, Payne and Deuce is going to be a bit small. The passing is so legit, and his ability of get the rock and immediately put it on the floor en route to the next domino is a form of advantage creation on its own, but I’m not sure the path to minutes is there right now.

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 out of 5

Pacome Dadiet

I so desperately want to believe, and honestly, he hasn’t given me a reason not to.

Still…a teenager on the parquet against the defending champs who can hurt you in more ways at either end than any other team in the league…what could go wrong?

Confidence meter: 🏀 🏀 ½ out of 5

Ariel Hukporti

Playing center in the NBA is really, really hard, which is why it’s so rare to see a rookie big contribute to winning.

Confidence meter: 🏀 ½ out of 5

THAT’S IT FOR NOW! SEE YOU TOMORROW FOR OPENING DAY!!

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. The minimum for players with no years of service time is $1.1 million. For players with one year, it’s $1.8 million. Two years bumps it up to $2 million.