All-Star Randle Redux?

We begin making the case.

Good morning! It’s been 38 games, so it’s about damn time we did a deep dive / appreciation newsletter for the All-Star campaign Julius Randle is building. Buckle up, because this one is going to cover a lot.

🏙 Game Night 🏙

Who: Spurs

Where: MSG

When: 7:30 pm

Injury Report: Obi Toppin has been upgraded to doubtful for the first time since he went out, so that’s a good sign. On the down side, RJ Barrett is still listed as out and will miss his fourth straight. Derrick Rose is questionable, as is Devin Vassell for San Antonio.

TV: MSG

Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter.

What to watch for: How about not losing to the league’s worst team (by net rating, at least) twice in the span of one week? How about that?

All-Star Randle Redux?

#WeBack?

When Julius Randle first uttered the words “New York, We Here!” following his 40-point performance in a win over the Atlanta Hawks - the Knicks’ eighth straight in the spring of 2021 - it was just about the happiest single moment I’ve had as a fan since…Jeremy Lin’s Toronto game winner? Learning about the Melo trade? Beating Indiana in Game 6 of the ‘99 Conference Finals?

Whatever the answer, I’d have had to go back between 10 and 20 years to get to it. That’s how meaningful it was to see this player, in the midst of a legitimate run onto voters’ MVP ballots, acknowledge and adopt the sentiments of a fan base that had fallen in love with him and his team.

And then to go from that to this…

…in less than eight months, well…that’s not something I’ve experienced in over three decades of watching sports.

The fall was more dramatic than the rise, not only in how it happened, but in the permanence that seemed to stamp itself on Randle’s new, sullen place in the hearts and minds of the same fans he once endeared himself to.

And now, in what is becoming the ultimate roller coater ride of sports fandom, we have this…

…less than a year after the thumbs down gesture that I was sure would come to define his Knicks tenure.

It seems (yet again, at least where Randle is concerned) I was mistaken. Maybe one of these days I’ll get it right on him.

No day like today, as they say.

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It’s overly simplistic to say that Julius Randle has dramatically turned around his season, at least in the ways that are most obvious.

From the outset, he’s been a far more efficient player than the shell of himself that we saw last season. For the most part, that level of efficiency has remained flat, as we see from Cleaning the Glass’ 10-game rolling average displaying Randle’s Points per Shot Attempt, which is a catch-all efficiency metric that takes into accounts two’s, three’s and free throws:

While Randle’s counting stats have certainly gone up (he’s averaging just over 28 points and 11 rebounds in his last 18 games, up from about 20 & 9 in his first 20), that’s more a function of volume than anything else. And as they should, those bigger numbers matter when it comes to All-Star consideration, because the higher the volume, the more difficult it is to maintain top notch efficiency.

But with as much credit as he’s getting for his offensive output lately, you’d think that a much higher percentage of his shots have been going down, and that simply hasn’t been the case. He’s been efficient all season long¹.

Similarly, while the eye-test shows a more consistent and concerted effort on the defensive end, we’re still talking about someone in the 5th percentile league-wide when it comes to defensive on/off metrics, per Cleaning the Glass. Like the increase in volume on offense, there’s been improvement here too. For the season, New York is now just 8.8 points per 100 possessions worse on defense when Randle plays, whereas this number was above 14 points per 100 earlier in the year. But also like his offense, considering how much it feels like a 180 degree turnaround, these numbers aren’t what you’d expect.

And yet, even with these two sets of data, Randle’s transformation from the empty-calorie, no-defense player he was perceived to be through most of the first month and a half into a genuine All-Star candidate isn’t a case of mistaken identity. His turnaround has been very real. We just need to know where to look.

That starts with his passing, which he’s doing more of to his own teammates, and just as important, less of to his opponents:

• Julius Randle, first 19 games: 3.0 assists, 3.0 turnovers

• Julius Randle last 19 games: 4.7 assists, 2.1 turnovers

This split has gotten even more dramatic in the last six games, when Randle is averaging 5.0 dimes per night with only 1.7 giveaways. Given how demoralizing it was to see those moments every game when Randle would have a bad turnover that would immediately be followed by an exasperated look towards the ref and a lack of effort to get back on defense, I’d argue that this has been as big a part of his improvement as anything.