I had been cringing when RJ gets to the rim and puts up a shot inside 5 feet because he used to miss many of those, or have them deflected. What I'm seeing now -- and I think this is something new -- is that he's using the glass A LOT more. And it's helping a lot.
Watching the game I was almost certain they were going to call Mitch for a foul on Jokics 3 point attempt that started the play that led to the dunk.
Also, with the way things are going injury wise for Zion and off the court wise for Ja - how much has RJ closed the gap, especially with his play of late.
I think about that top 3 a lot. Zion is a surefire superstar when healthy and I still think he's got one all time season in him. RJ doesnt have that ceiling but I believe he'll have the best overall career of the three. Ja is electric but I wonder how he'll age.
I agree on the superstar part - I’m not sure the health will be there. I don’t think he’s played enough games in total to make one full season. I could be wrong but I’d be surprised if it’s by much.
You're probably right about the games played. But there's so much there I think he basically gets lucky and plays one great season. I hope it's more but I think he gets one.
Great article. Listened to the pod this morning. This was most definitely the RJ game. Hart already had his coming out party more times than I can count. This version of RJ can really catapult this team. What a stat about his usage rate! Here is my question. Does RJ do better when he doesn’t face a rim protecting 5? More importantly will RJ therefore be the answer if the other team goes small ball? We know Thibs won’t counter going small himself.
Thats a great Q about small ball. I think the rim protector thing matters more, because we saw RJ get to the rim on Gordon (a big) much like he's taken advantage of smalls. Great rim protectors, however, seem to give him issues, which is a worry if we face Cleveland, who has 2 of those guys.
What would that look like? Walking it down the court then switching from second gear to fifth in the last few seconds of the clock?
Wasn’t one of the (very many) grumbles last season the low pace (29th in the NBA)? Is it just the addition of Brunson and the increase in selflessness from Randle that is the difference, or other things too?
Pace is just how many possessions you use per 48 minutes, but even if you use very few, you can still "pay fast" within a possession by moving a lot, moving purposefully, etc. Granted, on the play I highlighted, that's not really what happened...it was merely getting into the possession earlier.
Brunson is a perfect example of this because of his very sudden aggressive movements where he will lull you to sleep and then do a quick rip through or blow by. He also can accelerate and decelerate at a dime and so that change of pace is a factor even if your team overall plays slower. Also the uptempo 2nd unit anchored by Hart and the offensive rebounding of this team also makes up for a slower pace by still giving us as many possessioms as faster paced teams off second chance points.
The pace issue is interesting - am very much guessing that despite a lower pace their shots per game have not decreased. What i suspect they have done is reduce their opponents field goal attempts through lowered pace / reduced turnovers/ etc while offensive-rebounding their way to a greater # of shots themselves. This is well suited to playoff ball if so.
Hadn't even thought to look this up...NY is 27th in pace but 12th in both FGA per game and opponents' FGA per game. I have NO idea what to make of the opponent FGA number...the Cavs have the best defense in the NBA and give up the 2nd fewest shots per game. Meanwhile, the Bucks have the 3rd best defense and give up the 2nd MOST shots per game...
That makes sense. Am willing to double down and bet that opponent shots per game was an issue that drove the Hart trade - we needed his defensive rebounding to limit second/third shots. So preHart we would see more opponent FGAs and a new, lower Avg FGA after. Would love to learn how to get my hands on these data and import them into an actual stats program - then we could really play!
Just checked pre- and post-Hart trade....about the same. I hear you though on the rationale, and the on/off numbers back it up. NY's normal opponent OREB rate is 28.1 percent but only 26.7 % with Hart on the court, according to the NBA's on/off data
Love the new/adjusted format. Very well written! I too have been impressed with the adjustments RJ has made that are reaping benefits for him and the team. It seems to me he’s added some moves to his arsenal, rather than being overly commitment to driving into contact and is diving with a set of options in mind. It felt like previously he was diving with a purpose of getting fouled and getting to the line and it seems he has learned (or it has been suggested to him) that he’s not getting the bailout call from the refs. Further, getting to the line when you’re not a great FT shooter is not a great outcome. He’s now more focused on a faster step and body alignment focused on getting the basket (rather than the foul). Ironically, he’s getting more foul calls and +1s because the refs are noticing that too. Hope he keeps it up and continues the non-linear development of a 22 yr old.
Thank you! I got another similar comment from someone and I think this might be a format I use more regularly. And totally agree with RJ's improved process on drives...a fantastic observation.
I had been cringing when RJ gets to the rim and puts up a shot inside 5 feet because he used to miss many of those, or have them deflected. What I'm seeing now -- and I think this is something new -- is that he's using the glass A LOT more. And it's helping a lot.
Watching the game I was almost certain they were going to call Mitch for a foul on Jokics 3 point attempt that started the play that led to the dunk.
Also, with the way things are going injury wise for Zion and off the court wise for Ja - how much has RJ closed the gap, especially with his play of late.
I think about that top 3 a lot. Zion is a surefire superstar when healthy and I still think he's got one all time season in him. RJ doesnt have that ceiling but I believe he'll have the best overall career of the three. Ja is electric but I wonder how he'll age.
I agree on the superstar part - I’m not sure the health will be there. I don’t think he’s played enough games in total to make one full season. I could be wrong but I’d be surprised if it’s by much.
You're probably right about the games played. But there's so much there I think he basically gets lucky and plays one great season. I hope it's more but I think he gets one.
Not a crazy question at all
When I first saw Zion, I was both astonished with his athleticism and appalled by his body type (I won't say "his weight").
He absolutely does not look like a basketball player. RJ looks the part.
Great article. Listened to the pod this morning. This was most definitely the RJ game. Hart already had his coming out party more times than I can count. This version of RJ can really catapult this team. What a stat about his usage rate! Here is my question. Does RJ do better when he doesn’t face a rim protecting 5? More importantly will RJ therefore be the answer if the other team goes small ball? We know Thibs won’t counter going small himself.
Thats a great Q about small ball. I think the rim protector thing matters more, because we saw RJ get to the rim on Gordon (a big) much like he's taken advantage of smalls. Great rim protectors, however, seem to give him issues, which is a worry if we face Cleveland, who has 2 of those guys.
As I was making my coffee, I asked my wife I wonder if Jon will have a newsletter this morning... she said “who’s Jon?”... lol
Both coffee and newsletter are fantastic!
LMAO...tell here "the guy who is as insane as I am"
Does the relatively slower pace make this team well-suited to play postseason basketball?
Not sure but going to do some digging to find out. Also, as Fred Katz told me once, playing at a low pace doesn’t necessarily mean you play slow.
What would that look like? Walking it down the court then switching from second gear to fifth in the last few seconds of the clock?
Wasn’t one of the (very many) grumbles last season the low pace (29th in the NBA)? Is it just the addition of Brunson and the increase in selflessness from Randle that is the difference, or other things too?
Pace is just how many possessions you use per 48 minutes, but even if you use very few, you can still "pay fast" within a possession by moving a lot, moving purposefully, etc. Granted, on the play I highlighted, that's not really what happened...it was merely getting into the possession earlier.
Brunson is a perfect example of this because of his very sudden aggressive movements where he will lull you to sleep and then do a quick rip through or blow by. He also can accelerate and decelerate at a dime and so that change of pace is a factor even if your team overall plays slower. Also the uptempo 2nd unit anchored by Hart and the offensive rebounding of this team also makes up for a slower pace by still giving us as many possessioms as faster paced teams off second chance points.
The pace issue is interesting - am very much guessing that despite a lower pace their shots per game have not decreased. What i suspect they have done is reduce their opponents field goal attempts through lowered pace / reduced turnovers/ etc while offensive-rebounding their way to a greater # of shots themselves. This is well suited to playoff ball if so.
Hadn't even thought to look this up...NY is 27th in pace but 12th in both FGA per game and opponents' FGA per game. I have NO idea what to make of the opponent FGA number...the Cavs have the best defense in the NBA and give up the 2nd fewest shots per game. Meanwhile, the Bucks have the 3rd best defense and give up the 2nd MOST shots per game...
Going to need to ask Benjy about this.
That makes sense. Am willing to double down and bet that opponent shots per game was an issue that drove the Hart trade - we needed his defensive rebounding to limit second/third shots. So preHart we would see more opponent FGAs and a new, lower Avg FGA after. Would love to learn how to get my hands on these data and import them into an actual stats program - then we could really play!
Just checked pre- and post-Hart trade....about the same. I hear you though on the rationale, and the on/off numbers back it up. NY's normal opponent OREB rate is 28.1 percent but only 26.7 % with Hart on the court, according to the NBA's on/off data
Huh! Now I really want that dataset! 🤓
Love the new/adjusted format. Very well written! I too have been impressed with the adjustments RJ has made that are reaping benefits for him and the team. It seems to me he’s added some moves to his arsenal, rather than being overly commitment to driving into contact and is diving with a set of options in mind. It felt like previously he was diving with a purpose of getting fouled and getting to the line and it seems he has learned (or it has been suggested to him) that he’s not getting the bailout call from the refs. Further, getting to the line when you’re not a great FT shooter is not a great outcome. He’s now more focused on a faster step and body alignment focused on getting the basket (rather than the foul). Ironically, he’s getting more foul calls and +1s because the refs are noticing that too. Hope he keeps it up and continues the non-linear development of a 22 yr old.
Thank you! I got another similar comment from someone and I think this might be a format I use more regularly. And totally agree with RJ's improved process on drives...a fantastic observation.