Anatomy of a Meltdown

I went back to the scene of the crime.

Good morning, and I hope the wings last night treated you well. As for our basketball team, the best thing I can say is that after tonight, the season will be 70 percent over with. Is it lottery time yet?

Game Recap: Knicks 103, Blazers 112

The Knicks came out of the gate ice cold and more than a little sloppy, failing to score in the first 4:30 and falling behind 12-0 to the Blazers. That’s when the lights turned on and New York used a 21-4 run to get back in front. It was a one-possession game for most of the second quarter, which ended with Kemba Walker showing his first real signs of life in weeks and the Knicks taking a five-point lead into halftime.

After an Anfernee Simons three opened the 3rd quarter scoring, New York blitzed Portland with a stretch that had fans wondering how this team has ever looked so inept so often this season. Quentin Grimes, Walker and Julius Randle combined to score 29 point in under six minutes, and every Knicks fan was checking the standings to see just how quick we could overtake the Hawks. Up 23 points with under 17 minutes left to play, the Knicks looked poised to go home on a 2-game winning streak, with the possibility of taking four straight W’s into the break. But of course…

This. Freaking. Team.

Anatomy of a Meltdown

There are polar opposite reactions one could reasonably have to the sort of cataclysmic breakdown that caused the Knicks to blow a game like they did on Saturday night:

1. Never think about it again (and honestly, never think about this team again - not this season at least. In fact, that is the only reasonable reaction)

2. Dissect it, in a futile attempt to draw some relevant conclusion about that which has caused us pain.

What did I choose? As a wise man once said, to live…is to suffer, but to survive…well, that's to find meaning in the suffering. Here we go…

While the true system failure didn’t occur until the fourth quarter, there were already signs of trouble midway through the third. On this first Portland possession after the Knicks went up by 23, we see first hand why so many fans have been calling for Tom Thibodeau to do what he did two month ago and bench Kemba Walker.

On offense, Walker was awesome in this game, starting 7-of-9 from the field with four made threes. But the Blazers targeted him early and often on defense, like Simons does here, bodying Walker like a rag doll and forcing Taj to help off Jusuf Nurkic, who easily converts down low.

Was anything different on defense during New York’s big third quarter run? Not really…Portland was still hitting shots but was sloppy with the ball, turning it over five times in a stretch of under four minutes. Walker was never able to put up any resistance, but his offense made it worth it, at least at first.

Sure enough, following Quentin Grimes drawing a foul and hitting 1-of-2 from the line, New York made sure Grimes was guarding Simons on the next Portland possession. Grimes was incredible on defense for most of this game, but here it didn’t matter:

Sometimes you just have to tip your cap, and for as much agita as this game caused, Simons simply being a supremely talented young guard who’s finally been coming into his own had a lot to do with the comeback.

No worries, New York was still up 20. Julius Randle, who did well to push the pace for almost the entire game, hustled up the floor and set up a nice dribble hand-off that sprung Grimes for an open look that just missed. Next Blazers possession, Walker got matched with Simons again, and fearing the drive, played far enough off of him to give up a good look. 30-footer, splash mountain. Lead down to 17.

The inverse of an Anfernee Simons-type playing great, of course, is someone who is normally decent coming out with a stinker, and on Saturday, that man was Evan Fournier.

Shocking, I know.

Last season’s Knicks, for all their faults, were a metronome. You knew exactly what you were going to get in terms of execution and effort, not only from game to game, but quarter to quarter, and no one exemplified that more than Reggie Bullock. Sometimes shots went down, sometimes they didn’t, but Bullock was so incredibly consistent in his approach, and most of all, never let his struggles impact his defensive tenacity.

Even Fournier, Bullock’s replacement, is almost the complete opposite. He is bipolar disorder on a basketball court, sometimes ultra aggressive on both ends, forcing the action and bending defenses to his will. Other times, he’s the guy we saw on Saturday, resorting to threes for 10 of his 13 shots even though he was 1-of-10 on these attempts.

On the play above, Kemba does a nice job drawing help and finding Fournier in the corner. This is a shot Fournier has made a lot, but on this night, he’d have been better served driving driving baseline and forcing the next defensive reaction. Instead, he shoots, misses, hangs his head, and then lollygags back as his man sprints out for a transition dunk.

Here’s the thing about Fournier though, and it’s a point that Fred Katz of the Athletic astutely referenced in his post-trade deadline column: inconsistency has always been the norm for him. This is what he is. As we heard the Knicks were shopping him less than a year after the signing, Katz asked a valid question: “What does that say about the homework the organization did before signing him?” My guess is that they were willing to live with his faults for the added benefits, never once thinking that his high variance would impact the greater whole so drastically.

And maybe all things being equal, it wouldn’t have. But all things have not been equal this season, and other fissures have appeared in the foundation. Oops.

Following a timeout, Thibs pulled Taj and Kemba for Burks and Mitch, and on the first play, both subs paid dividends:

Right away, New York got back to what had worked so well, with lots of high action above the arc setting up Randle for a drive to the rim. Burks makes a great pass, and Mitch’s presence as a lob threat gives Julius the full runway he needs.

Thibs gets a lot of grief for a lack of creativity on offense, and some of it is deserved. At the same time, a lot of it comes down to execution. Here, for example, Randle has to make solid contact on the high screen, and he does. Two plays later, Randle sets another solid screen on a well-placed DHO with Burks, and Alec knocks down the triple to put New York back up 18¹. Fun fact: coaching looks better when guys hit their open shots.

Another thing Thibodeau can’t control is injuries. Aside from Derrick Rose, whose absence has taken its toll in countless ways, Nerlens Noel has been a shell of himself and Robinson has only started to become a difference-maker over the last month and change. For a defense that counts on the center as its backbone, this is sort of a big deal, and Robinson’s limited time was felt on Saturday, as he played just 14 minutes due to what appeared to be a sprained ankle. In addition to a block of Simons in the third, Mitch later got switched onto Simons on the perimeter and forced a tough look that missed².

After Randle was fouled on a mid-ranger and sunk two freebies, he followed it up with a nice close out to the corner on the other end. He wasn’t perfect on Saturday, but this was another performance with more good than bad from New York’s moody marauder. At the very least, it’s night and day from most of the season.

At this point, New York had withstood Portland’s punch and was back up by 18 with just over a minute to go in the 4th. Crisis had seemingly been averted. And that’s when the bench made its mark.

This play, in which Cam Reddish runs around like a chicken with his head cut off before allowing an easy drive, followed an offensive possession in which Reddish put up an absolutely unconscionable off-the-dribble, step-back three with 13 left on the clock. Then, early in the 4th, Cam was supposed to help from the corner after Josh Hart drove past Alec Burks, but Reddish never got into the play.

He wasn’t alone in the blah bench performance. On New York’s first possession of the fourth, Immanuel Quickley either missed or ignored an open Reddish in the corner in favor of a contested fallaway runner. On the next possession, Quickley had a wide open triple that clanked, and then a few possessions after that (on the basket that got the lead down to 10 and prompted Thibs to send four starters back into the game) gave Elijah Hughes too much room behind the arc and watched as he nailed a three over his head.

The worst bench effort was on the prior play though:

Reddish absolutely dies on this screen, and while you love Obi’s active feet, they’d be better served not sending him in the opposite direction of the driver.

These are the sacrifices you make with a “play the kids” approach. It’s not that you’re accepting poor play - IQ, Obi and Cam have all had stretches where they’ve outplayed the veterans in front of them, sometimes to a significant degree - but that you’re opening yourself up to inconsistency. Most organizations have to give over to this sort of thing at some point in the life cycle of going from bad to good and good to great, and as long as the players actually have potential and bad habits are being weened out and not reinforced, it’s acceptable.

But there needs to be organizational commitment, and Item No. 1 on Leon Rose’s agenda over the break is deciding whether they want to take that plunge. Thus far under Thibs, any and all development has fallen squarely under the accountability umbrella. To some extent, that will need to change.

Although perhaps not by much.

After the starters re-entered the game, Randle sunk a fadeaway to get the lead back to 12. The bleeding was momentarily stopped. After a nice Walker contest on a Hughes corner three, Kemba had a wide open deep attempt off a Julius DHO, and bricked. After another missed three from the Blazers, Randle again got a teammate an open three - this time Taj from the corner - and again, it missed. After some truly horrific transition defense yielded a Josh Hart layup, Walker drew a shooting foul and sunk both.

At this point, even with his defensive issues, Kemba had earned the right to be in at this juncture. He was sinking shots, driving occasionally, and the Blazers weren’t able to exploit him every time they had the ball. And yet, a few possessions later, there’s our point guard, settling for a really difficult contested fadeaway two when he had Grimes unguarded right behind him (see above).

The biggest criticism of New York’s fourth quarter implosion was that they didn’t find Grimes enough. Two possessions before the above play, Grimes made a three, but it was waived off due to a Fournier offensive foul. That was it though. The next possession, Julius drew a switch and had Simons on him, but settled for a tough baseline turnaround instead of trying to draw a double in the post and perhaps finding Grimes. On the possession after the above clip, we got a Randle turnover. Next possession, Fournier gets Nurk switched onto him, settles for a fadeaway three, and misses. Next one after that, Walker get the same switch, settles for the same shot, and gets the same result.

A point guard has many jobs, but near the top of the list has to be finding the hot hand. Among the many areas Walker has fallen short this season, this is one of them, and rarely if ever do you feel like he has any command of New York’s attack. Some of this absolutely goes on Randle, who is really the point guard of this team, but that leads to a different question: if Walker isn’t actually playing point guard, what exactly is his value?

Plays like this, in which Walker finds himself matched up with a wing (or God forbid a big) in transition, are unavoidable. They create a domino effect in which help needs to come immediately, and it usually results in something bad. Even traditional matchups are often problematic, as we saw a few plays before this one, when Simons yet again turned Walker into burnt chicken on a drive and ended up getting an and-one when Randle came to help.

Walker wasn’t the only defensive culprit in the fourth quarter. Thibs tried to juice the offense and went center-less for a few possessions, the first of which yielded an offensive rebound & kick out for a corner three, and the second being the aforementioned Simons drive on Walker. There was another possession during this stretch where Fournier helped way too far off Simons to help Simms guarding Nurk (why, Evan…why???) and Simons splashed a three over his flailing arms.

But Walker is by far the most consistent minus on this end, yielding a bottom three defensive rating in his minutes, whereas the Knicks have a borderline top-five rating when he sits. It’s why, despite a 7-for-12 shooting line, Thibs had no choice but to pull him for the last four minutes.

And Burks, to his credit, made the shot that gave the Knicks the lead back, yet again teaming up Julius Randle for a nice two-man action that got him an open look.

But he also left a lot to be desired. He drove on his first play back in the game and not only missed the shot but missed an open Grimes behind the arc. After his made three, there was an answer by Simons to put Portland back up by one (this was a really tough shot, by the way, sidestepping into his shooting motion after Burks went above the screen and Taj was right there with a decent contest. Simons is damn good).

Next possession, Burks kicked to an ice cold Fournier in the corner, who missed, and then after a couple McLemore freebies put Portland up three, we had this:

Burks has made some tough shots this season, but he’s been slumping of late, and this simply can’t be the shot on the most important possession of the game.

And yet, that’s the best the Knicks can get out of the point guard position right now. Randle’s late game woes trying to direct an attack against a keyed in defense have been well documented. Walker can’t be trusted to guard anyone. Quickley is a lost soul. Burks is doing what he can, but his best isn’t good enough. Without Derrick Rose, this team has by far the weakest point guard play in the league.

And how much of a difference does an advantage-creating point guard make? Here’s Portland’s next possession:

Simons doesn’t score on this play, nor does he get credited with an assist. But the Blazers get an easy bucket all because Alec Burks was scared out of his mind and picked up his man 45 feet from the basket. Simons, with the help of the perpetually underrated Nurkic (the latest reminder of the benefits that can be had from a center who can be productive more than 3 feet from the hoop), makes them pay.

No point guard. An imperfect offensive engine who struggles to maintain pace and can’t impact the game at a high level when the game slows down. A starting wing who couldn’t hit the ocean from the beach. Another starting wing on the bench because his coach played Russian roulette with his health. A starting center who can never seem to stay on the floor for long. A bench missing its key ingredient and filled with players showing their youth. And a head coach who hasn’t pushed any of the right buttons he found so often last season.

That’s how you end up with a blown 23-point lead, and more urgently, a 25-32 record with the toughest part of the schedule yet to come. At this point, it’s no longer just about finding answers. It’s about asking the right questions - ones that matter for the long term health of the organization.

Step one to getting there is admitting the truth. This team is not good. It’s time to start looking forward to the future, and how they can best use the rest of this season to change their current predicament.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Kemba Walker: The good: 23 points on 12 shots. The bad: Just two assists. The ugly: the entire other half of the court. He’s here more by default than anything else.

⭐️ ⭐️ Julius Randle: Ended up with 28 points on 20 shots, including 12-of-13 from the line, to go with 16 rebounds, six assists, and of course, five turnovers. It’s never perfect. But at least Randle has gone from a reason (and perhaps the biggest reason) the team is losing to a guy they can win with if he gets adequate help around him.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Quentin Grimes: Amidst all the dismay and depression this team has caused, Grimes remains a bright spot. He’s not a wing creator - the most valuable asset in the sport - but he does everything else you need at the position, including all the little things that win games.

Sneak in for an offensive rebound? He had three. Get a key steal? Grimes swiped two during that big third quarter run. Efficiency? How’s 20 points on 10 shots, moving him up to the 4th highest effective field goal percentage among 32 rookies who have appeared in at least 30 games.

And then there’s that defense, which is just about the most reliable thing on this team at the moment:

New York’s steal of a pick at 25 continues to pay dividends. Aside from RJ Barrett and maybe Mitchell Robinson, he is the best young prospect on this team.

🏙 Game Night 🏀

Who: Knicks vs Thunder

When: 7:30 pm

Where: MSG

Who’s out: RJ Barrett is out, Mitchell Robinson and Cam Reddish are questionable, and in the shocker of the day, Nerlens Noel may also miss the game. For OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Mike Muscala will miss the game/

Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter!

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#NYK75: No. 21 - Bill Cartwright

All-Time Franchise Ranks:

• Games Played: 537 (17th)

• Points scored: 9006 (11th)

• Scoring average: 16.8 (22nd)

• Rebounding Average: 7.1 (42nd)

• Win Shares: 56.8 (7th)

Best Stat: Of 28 Knicks to play at least 400 games for the franchise, he has the highest field goal percentage at 55.2 (2nd: Patrick Ewing at 50.8 percent)

It’s taken 55 players on this list before I arrived at someone whose placement left me truly conflicted. But that’s where I’m at with Bill Cartwright.

Statistically speaking, Cartwright’s Knicks resume is prodigious. Whatever numbers you want to look at - advanced, efficiency, traditional - Cartwright has an argument as one of the 10 best Knicks in history, and his placement down here makes me a bit queasy. There are a scant few players who have spent at least seven seasons in New York - and Cartwright was here for eight, nine if you count a year he missed due to injury - with his stats. An All-Star as a rookie, Cartwright has an argument for the most underrated career in franchise history.

And yet, when it came time to pick nits between four or five guys and decide who’d get left out of the top 20, my gut told me it had to be Cartwright. For one, it’s meaningful that every player above him is known primarily as a Knick, whereas Cartwright will forever be remembered as the starting center on three Bulls’ title teams even though those came past his prime.

He also didn’t do much winning here. The Knicks were just 15 games over .500 in his first five seasons, with one 50-win season that ended in a first round playoff loss to the lower seeded Bulls. Cartwright averaged just 6.5 points in that two-game series despite being the team’s leading scorer. Their two playoff series victories, in 1983 and ‘84, came with Bernard King leading the way.

After that, a foot injury temporarily derailed Cartwright’s career, and he played just two games in over 900 days. When he returned, the team had a new center of attention named Patrick Ewing, and after it became clear that a twin towers approach wasn’t going to work, Cartwright was relegated to the bench for his final season as a Knick. Then in the summer of 1988, he was traded to Chicago for young enforcer who made more sense alongside Ewing named Charles Oakley.

For all of the above reasons, Cartwright gets bumped. Is it fair? His being one of four Knicks to accumulate 9000 points and 3500 rebounds, along with Ewing, Frazier and Reed, might suggest it isn’t. But that’s how tough the competition is for the Top 20. We’ll find out who’s the first to make that cut later this week.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. The intervening plays: Mitch blocked a Simons drive, spurring a Randle-led fast break, but Portland swiped an attempted pass to Grimes in the corner, and with Simons still in the backcourt, it resulted in an easy two.

2. Unfortunately, Greg Brown skied for the offensive rebound and a put-back over Randle that was probably a missed over the back violation