As OG Goes...
...so go the Knicks. Let's look at the numbers and the tape to see why.
Good morning! The Knicks are back in action tonight in Toronto, who is healthy outside of rookie center Collin Murray-Boyles. Mitchell Robinson is not on the injury report. Join me and DJ on the KFS YouTube channel for a live watch along if you’d like.
As OG Goes...
After Friday’s win in Milwaukee, I noted that the Knicks were 22-4 when OG Anunoby finishes with an effective field goal percentage of .500 or higher.
You can now make that 23-4.
No other Knick has been that kind of bellwether.
Hart comes the closest, leading the team to a 23-7 record when he hits a 50 eFG%. When Brunson reaches the mark, the Knicks are 31-11. When Bridges does it, they’re 33-141. When Towns does, they’re 23-13.
The OG / shooting record is interesting, but as I was digging through various numbers to prepare for today’s newsletter, it wasn’t the most astounding thing I came across. Not close, in fact.
In the 27 games Anunoby has sported at least a 20 usage rate, the Knicks have the same record as they do when OG clears a 50 eFG%: 23-4. That win total includes five games when he had an effective field goal percentage under 50 percent.
Now here’s the really interesting part: One of those losses was the Hawks game that KAT, Mitch, Hart and Shamet all missed. The other three losses came without Jalen Brunson2.
So essentially, when New York has their two stars and OG Anunoby is still a significant part of the offense, the Knicks do not lose.
Like, ever.
Now this may seem like an odd stat to throw out following a game in which Anunoby had his sixth lowest usage rate of the season, but I’d argue the opposite. The book on OG has long been that he’s more engaged when his shots are falling (or if the above numbers are to be believed, when the shots are simply there, regardless of whether or not they fall). Sunday afternoon was proof that peak Anunoby is still accessible even when he isn’t as heavily involved.
And just how important is OG at his defensive best? When Anunoby has an individual defensive rating of 104 or less, the Knicks are 15-0 this season. Last season, it was 19-1 (and 22-1 when the number was 106 or less; plus 7-0 in playoffs). In the ‘23-24 season, they were 11-0 when OG generated a defensive rating of 106 or less, plus another win in playoffs.
That’s a 45-1 regular season record when the Knicks allow 106 or fewer points per 100 possessions during OG Anunoby’s minutes, plus an undefeated slate in the postseason3.
I’d say that’s pretty, pretty, pretty good, and Sunday’s masterclass showed us how exactly an A+ defensive game from OG directly translates into A+ success for the Knicks. It started right from the opening possession of the game, the first of a dozen clips we’ll look at today:
