Back to the Future

If the Knicks front office has shown us anything, it's that they always have an eye on what comes next.

Good morning, and a belated Happy Father’s Day and Happy Juneteenth. Are you ready for the madness? I hope so, because it’s about to begin. Over the next two weeks, while the entire landscape of the league isn’t likely to change, I’m betting that there will be more moving and shaking than any draft and free agent period in recent memory. Why? Because no one has money to spend, and the only way to shake up rosters will be via trade. In other words, buckle up.

Today, I’m going to go a bit deeper on a specific type of trade the Knicks have shown us that they are ready and willing to make. But first, a reminder to those who aren’t full subscribers: there’s no better time to get on board than right now! Here you go:

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 This was a slow news weekend (outside of Draymond Green’s Twitter exploits, at least), with the only news of note being that Duke center Mark Williams worked out for the Knicks. Here’s the most up to date list of players who have had confirmed workouts for New York¹, courtesy of HoopsHype:

I don’t want to make too much of this list. After all, the Knicks brought in a ton of guys last year but Quentin Grimes wasn’t one of them (or if he was, they kept it hush hush). That said, it’s interesting that with the exception of Dyson Daniels, the top names on this list are all viewed as mid-first rounders.

Which leads us to…

Back to the Future

We’re getting close.

Close enough that we can start to count down the hours until Adam Silver strides to the podium to announce: “With the first pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic select…”

Jabri Smith? Chet Homgren? Paolo Banchero?

Unlike most years, there will be at least some uncertainty right off the bat, although Smith sure seems like the smart money at the moment. With the second and third picks, the Thunder and Rockets could also surprise, but just like at No. 1, it would be something of a shock if any of the “Big Three” were left on the board when the Sacramento Kings came up to the plate at four.

And that, according to most observers, is where the draft will really begin. As I noted on Friday, Woj reported that at least four teams, including the Knicks, have registered inquiries about moving up to take Jaden Ivey with the fourth pick. There have been other rumors and rumblings in addition to the Woj report, but as we know from past experience, everything we hear at this time of year should be taken with several grains of salt.

That said, if there is one constant that seems to be making the rounds, it is that the Knicks are not content to stay where they are. Trade up? Boy would they love to². But in lieu of a jump? Down they’ll go.

For what it’s worth, I buy it. And it’s not because I have any insight about New York’s draft board, nor do I know whether the tiers that seem to be forming in the media are reflective of how they see these prospects. What I do know, however, is that this front office values value itself above all else. What does that have to do with possibly trading down? Stay with me here…

At the moment, it seems like the draft is breaking as follows:

• 1st tier: Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero

• 2nd tier: Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray

• 3rd tier: Dyson Daniels, Ben Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe, Johnny Davis

Does this mean that Ivey can’t sneak into the top three, or that Murray falls below one or two players from tier three? Of course not. It also doesn’t mean that someone I haven’t mentioned doesn’t sneak into the top seven or eight. But there are pretty clear reasons to buy all of the above names, and in conjunction, good reason to be skeptical that any of those nine fall out of the top 10.

If any one of them do, I could easily see the Knicks staying put and pouncing. But if not? The question not only then becomes “who do the Knicks want most?” but “how far can they drop to get that player?”

That’s where things get really interesting. Right now, there appears to be very little consensus about the order of the next 10, 12 or even 15 guys to be picked. To that end, it’s worth noting that there are 22 green room invites…or 13 more names in addition to the nine I listed above. I think we can find some commonalities within that next loose tier of players, with clear reasons why teams could be both tempted and wary:

• Jalen Duren, Mark Williams: Both are traditional centers, more or less. Teams seem hesitant to spend important draft capital on these sorts of players.

• AJ Griffin: Covered on Thursday, it’s a combination of the meds and questions about what else he’ll be good at besides outside shooting.

• Jeremy Sochan, Tari Eason: What will they be as offensive players, and more specifically, will they ever shoot it form deep with consistency?

• Malaki Branham, Ousmane Dieng: Tantalizing over a smaller sample size (especially Dieng), but was it enough to project bigger and better things? How will their overall level of consistency develop over time?

• Ochai Agbaji: The token upperclassman. How much room is there to grow?

• TyTy Washington: As covered recently, is his ceiling higher than a top backup?

• MarJon Beauchamp, Jalen Williams: Might have ceilings as high level 3 & D guys.

• Blake Wesley: Insane physical gifts and shows promise, but incredibly raw in pretty much every aspect of the game.

• Jaden Hardy: Started the season slow and there are red flags with shot selection and defense, but he came on strong late and was the 4th ranked recruit in his class.

That’s another 13 names, and I haven’t even mentioned Patrick Baldwin, Kendall Brown, Nikola Jokic and EJ Liddell, all of whom have appeared in the teens in various mock drafts. It is entirely possible that if the Knicks can’t get Ivey and don’t see one of the top eight when it’s their turn to pick at 11, they’ll roll the dice and wager that their next best option will still be there further down the board.

This might seem like a dangerous game, but it’s one that the front office has more than a little experience playing. In fact, the last two drafts are proof that they’ve gotten very comfortable with moving around the draft board to ensure they’re high enough to get their guy but not too high that they’re selecting ahead of what they think his range is. Recall:

• 2020: They were rumored to be ready to trade up for Toppin until it was clear that he’d slip to them.

• 2020: They used 27 and 34 to move up to 23, with (I’m guessing) Tyrese Maxey in mind, and then once he went off the board, they moved down a bit to grab IQ

• 2021: Once it became clear they couldn’t use 19 and 21 to move up for Duarte, they moved off 19 completely and moved down from 21 because they knew they could get Grimes lower.

• 2021: Wanting McBride but seeing an opportunity to grab an extra draft and stash guy in the process, they traded down to where they knew they could still get Deuce.

With all that mind, if they can not trade up, I would be somewhat surprised if they can’t figure out a way to trade back.

(The one guy who gives me pause in suggesting this: AJ Griffin. I heard that he met with Leon Rose himself yesterday, and while no workout has been reported, this might be an example of the Knicks not wanting to give away their intention to pounce on the former projected top-five pick if he’s there at 11.)

This “trade back and pick up an asset” theory is why I pitched my (admittedly crazy) Brogdon/Brunson trade idea last week, but as many pointed out, that would be very uncharacteristic of this front office. They always seem to have an eye on upping the future asset chest. That doesn’t mean they won’t give up something for the occasional present day upgrade (see: Rose, Derrick for Smith Jr, Dennis, and a second round pick), but that sort of trade happens if and only if the cost is too cheap to walk away from.

The more likely scenario has New York trading down to pick up an additional future asset or assets. With that in mind, I went through every team who owns selections in the 12-22 range, checked to see what future first round draft assets they own, and assessed the likelihood of a deal:

OKC (12th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: I could list them all, but that would require at least one additional newsletter, and probably two.

Likelihood: Moderate. The Thunder have thrown around picks somewhat wily nilly over the last two years, sending 34 and 36 to New York for 32 in last year’s draft and recently giving up the 30th pick to acquire a future protected Denver 1st. Recent rumors have them angling to trade up even further than 11, perhaps with a particular player in mind. If that player dropped and they were worried about another team swooping in instead, might they be willing to give up something decent, like the 2024 Clippers’ first? This all presupposes the Knicks wouldn’t be after the same player, but they’d presumably know that ahead of time.

Charlotte (13th and 15th picks)

Future 1st round draft assets: They owe a protected pick to Atlanta; cannot trade a future first until 2027 at the earliest.

Likelihood: 13 and 15 for 11 would objectively be an overpay, at least going by similar trade ups we’ve seen over the decade or so. If they really love a guy though, maybe they do it, which would then enable New York to swap 13 or 15 for one of the future assets lower on this list.

Cleveland (14th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: Owe a lottery-protected 2023 first to Indiana that converts to two seconds if not conveyed next year; can trade a first rounder as soon as 2025

Likelihood: Low. The Cavs aren’t giving up a future first to move from 14 to 11, although I did think of this madness: New York swaps 11 for 14 and gets Cleveland’s 2023 1st that would convey only if it fell between picks 11 and 14 (again, it’s owed to Indiana if it falls between 15 and 30). I don’t think the Knicks would do this unless they were absolutely convinced the player they’d take at 11 would still be there at 14, but if they were, this isn’t a bad little lottery ticket, as the pick would likely convey in the event that the Cavs made the play-in but didn’t advance to the playoffs.

Atlanta (16th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: 2023 first from Charlotte, all of their own future picks

Protections: The Hornets pick is protected for selections 1-16 in 2023, 1-14 in 2024 and 1-14 in 2025; if the pick has not conveyed by 2025, Charlotte will instead convey its 2026 2nd round pick and 2027 2nd round draft pick to Atlanta.

Likelihood: Low. The Knicks already owned this pick and decided they’d rather have Cam Reddish instead, possibly against the head coach’s wishes. This pick - obtained when they traded the 19th pick in the 2021 draft - always felt like the best they could do in the moment as opposed to something they truly coveted.

Houston (17th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: A bunch. They have swap rights with Brooklyn in 2023 and 2027, they own Brooklyn first rounders in 2024 and 2026, and a Milwaukee first in 2023. Houston also owes outgoing picks to OKC in 2024 and 2026

Protections: Their outgoing firsts to the Thunder are both top-four protected.

Likelihood: Low, although the 2026 Nets pick is an interesting little asset. KD will be coming off his 19th NBA season, Ben Simmons will be coming off his fifth consecutive summer back procedure, and Kyrie Irving will be coming back from visiting his homeland on Mars. Who knows what the state of the Nets will be by then?

For that reason, I actually think this might be too good of an asset for the Rockets to use to jump up six spots. They also have the 27th pick, which I think would be of greater interest to other teams than the Knicks, so maybe they try to use that to bump up a few spots instead.

Chicago (18th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: 2023 first from Portland; owe a 2023 first to Orlando and a 2025 first to San Antonio.

Protections: The Portland pick is protected for selections 1-14 in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028; if Portland has not conveyed by 2028, they will instead convey a 2028 second to Chicago. As for the Bulls’ own outgoing picks, the 2023 first is top-three protected in 2023, top-four protected in 2024, and then converts to two seconds. The pick due to San Antonio will convey two years after Orlando gets their pick, and is protected for selections 1-10 in the first draft, 1-8 in the second draft and 1-8 in the third draft. After that, it converts to a second.

Likelihood: Low. The Bulls have basically traded away all of their own future draft equity, so that’s out. As for the Blazers pick, the way they seem to be operating this offseason, my guess is that they’re at least a 50/50 bet for the playoffs next season. In other words, this feels a lot like the lottery protected Charlotte pick New York just dealt away for Reddish. I don’t see it, but I wouldn’t be shocked either.

Minnesota (19th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: Own all of their own picks.

Likelihood: Moderate. The man who ran the Wolves now works for the Knicks. I can’t imagine Minnesota would want any draft obligations lingering far into the future, so this would come down to agreeing upon protections on a 2023 pick. 11 for 19 and next year’s top-four protected Wolves first…who says no?

San Antonio (20th pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: 2025 first from Chicago, 2028 first from Boston

Protections: The Bulls pick will convey two years years after Chicago’s obligation to Orlando is fulfilled and is protected for selections 1-10 in the first draft, 1-8 in the second draft and 1-8 in the third draft before converting to a 2028 2nd round pick to San Antonio. The Celtics’ swap is top-one protected.

Likelihood: I wouldn’t say a deal is likely, but I do think this is the most likely trade partner on the list.

In addition to 20, San Antonio also owns picks 9, 25 and 38. The Spurs have historically loved their international guys and maybe there’s a draft & stash prospect or two they like enough to keep all of these picks and not worry about the roster overflow. My guess is that they’ll try to consolidate assets though.

Except there’s a problem: 20 and 25 (or one or both of those with 38) is not getting them high enough up for where they want to go. But 20, 25 and the Bulls pick is a tasty package. If they dealt those three picks for 11, perhaps with the Knicks sending back a future second to even things out, they could then either make two selections in the lottery or try to package 9 and 11 to move up even higher. This is exactly the sort of big swing the Spurs can afford (and arguably need) to make.

As for the Knicks, They’d be banking heavily on the Bulls getting pretty bad but not so bad for so long that the pick never conveys (or more accurately, that someone trading for this pick would worry about it eventually conveying). There are two bigger issues though, the first being that dropping from 11 to 20 is steep, and the second being that they’d then be stuck with an additional late first that we can be pretty certain they don’t want.

Again though: this front office has shown an immense amount of comfort wheeling and dealing in the moment. Maybe they turn around and flip 20 and 25 for something in the mid-teens. Or maybe they send out 25 for a distant lottery protected first, a’la the Hornets trade last year. Whatever way they’d go, a deal like this would send a very clear message: In Brock Aller, we trust.

Denver (21st pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: Cannot trade a future 1st until 2029 at the earliest, which will not become legal until after this draft.

Likelihood: Zero.

Memphis (22nd pick)

Future 1st round draft assets: 2024 first from Golden State

Protections: Protected for selections 1-4 in 2024, 1 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026

Likelihood: Very Low. It’s highly unlikely either the Warriors pick or any Memphis pick is decent anytime soon, and 22 to 11 would be a pretty big jump.

Conclusion

There are enough assets up for grabs here that I’m betting the Knicks find something they like, especially when you factor in New York’s additional need to shake up the roster and find new homes for some members of its overstuffed rotation. In short, the only think that would really surprise me on draft night is if the Knicks simply stay put at 11. Yes, that might change if a player or two from my projected top-nine falls to them at 11, but if that were to happen, might there be a team willing to overpay Leon Rose for the right to get their guy? We know that they were in love with Obi two years ago and likely nothing would have gotten in the way of that, but who’s to say they feel the same way about anyone who will be on the board for them this Thursday?

We’ll find out soon enough. 3 days and counting.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. I say “confirmed” because there are some articles indicating Johnny Davis worked out for the Knicks, but I couldn’t find anything confirming as much.

2. I’ve heard RJ was the ask to move from 11 to 4, but that that talk was shut down. A more likely scenario would have the Knicks making an intermediate jump from 11 to the middle of the lottery, and then another jump up to four. To that end, Jake Fischer reported late last week that a deal between OKC and Portland was discussed where the Blazers would send 7 to the Thunder for 11 and Lu Dort. Might the Blazers find one of New York’s young players preferable to Dort? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.