Beginning of the End
The writing is starting to appear on the wall.
Good morning. Remember the preseason, when our biggest collective worry as Knicks fans was finding rotation minutes for Cam Reddish or risk him languishing on the bench?
Those were good times.
Game Recap: Knicks 135, Thunder 145
⌚️30 Seconds or Less: This one was defense optional from the opening tip, as the Knicks scored a franchise record 48 points in the first quarter. Unfortunately, they also gave up 36, and after an 18-point second quarter turnaround, Oklahoma City took a six-point lead into halftime. How bad was it? During one stretch in the second, OKC hit 12-of-13 shots from the field, scoring 30 points in six and a half minutes. The second half didn’t get much better, and at one point with just under five minutes to go in the third, the Thunder were shooting over 70 percent from the field and 62.5 percent from deep. There was a minor fourth quarter push by the Knicks led by Cam and IQ, but they were never able to hit the big shot to cut it to single digits.
And right on cue…
🔥 Hot seat alert: Courtesy of Ian Begley, the seat of Tom Thibodeau is officially starting to heat up.
Begley implies here that a bad west coast trip, with upcoming games in Utah, Denver, Golden State, Phoenix and Oklahoma City, might spell the end for Thibs as Knicks head coach.
I’ll have many more thoughts on this below.
🤔 Rotation Reflections: The Quentin Grimes saga continues. He’s back…but also clearly not back, as Tom Thibodeau has kept his minutes “situational”…but he’s also not really situational, at least not in the way Tom has used that term in the past (to describe guys out of the rotation) because Grimes has played meaningful minutes in each of the last two games. There just haven’t been very many of those minutes, with 13 in total vs Detroit and OKC.
Yesterday was also the first time since Mitch went down that we haven’t seen Julius Randle and Obi Toppin share the court in a game despite the fact that New York was playing a team without a true center.
🏀 About Friday Night… The Knicks beat the Cade Cunningham-less Pistons 121-112. By net rating, Detroit is the worst team in the NBA, and New York approached this game as such, never really putting the Pistons away but making enough shots to get away with it. The Knicks probably got a little lucky that sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanovic missed all five of his threes, as he was nearly perfect everywhere else (9-of-10 from two; 25 points). Old friend Alec Burks made his season debut and played well, scoring 17 off the bench in a role that suits him far better than the one he had here. All in all, there was nothing about this one that should have left any Knicks fan feeling great about being .500 after a dozen games.
✍️ News & Notes: Over the weekend, Ian Begley reported that “the Knicks have gotten calls from teams about trades involving guard Immanuel Quickley,” with “some teams [feeling] that the Knicks will consider trading off at least one of the young players on their roster as the deadline approaches.”
This shouldn’t come as a shock, especially given Begley’s report earlier this season that New York may not be enamored with the idea of extending both Quickley and his draft class teammate, Obi Toppin. With IQ struggling from the field before his breakout performance yesterday, it’s reasonable to assume opposing teams were interested in poaching a player in a slump who may not be in the Knicks’ long term plans.
Hopefully they’ve been hanging up the phone. Even before yesterday, it figured that an IQ breakout was coming. All the while, he’s arguably been New York’s best defender, as the 16.1 point per 100 possession improvement in their defensive rating during his minutes shows. The threes will start dropping eventually.
One other point of interest: even though he still doesn’t start, Quickley has played the entire fourth quarter in the last two games. He’s also played the 10th most total minutes off the bench in the league (as of 10:30 last night, at least). If Quickley’s camp is desirous of him getting more playing time heading into extension negotiations this summer, there seems to be an indication that it can happen in New York. At the very least, someone seems to have finally given Thibs the memo to play Quickley more when it matters.
💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫
⭐️RJ Barrett
⭐️Immanuel Quickley
⭐️Cam Reddish
Couldn’t narrow this down to two of the three, as it would have been unfair to someone that had a big performance.
Of the three, IQ was probably closest to earning two stars. He played the entire fourth quarter on Friday and hit the game-sealing triple with 40 seconds to go and New York up six. Then yesterday, in a game no one should be proud of their overall defensive effort, Quickley was feisty enough to make things interesting with three steals in the final frame. He also had an 11-point burst over a three-minute stretch that felt like the IQ of old. His 24 points were easily a season high.
Not to be outdone, Cam Reddish had his best offensive outing, not only of the season, but as a Knick. He scored 26 points on 17 shots while adding four steals and - gasp - two assists! His defense was the best of any Knick on this dreary afternoon, but even clearing that lowest of bars should be credited.
Last is RJ, who had his best offensive game of the season on Friday vs Detroit. A combination of getting to the line (7-of-8 from the stripe) and converting around the rim led him to 30 points, although his defense left something to be desired. Most impressive was his passing, as Barrett had five assists for the third time in six games. His nicest pass didn’t even show up on the stat sheet:
Even with the nice passing and point total,Barrett was probably closest to being left out of this group. His offense was truly abysmal yesterday (2-for-10, no free throws, no assists, two turnovers, and just two minutes played in the second half after picking up his fourth foul early in the third). More urgently, his defense has run so hot and cold, whereas an improvement in that area had to be part of the calculation in his extension.
Simply put, RJ is nowhere near a good enough offensive player to justify his contract if he’s not going to be a plus on defense, if not a significant plus.
⭐️⭐️⭐️Jalen Brunson: I’m keeping a running tally of games I’m absolutely certain the Knicks would have won this season even if Jalen Brunson wasn’t on the team. So far, the number is two: the first Detroit win, and the win in Minnesota. And even with them, I’m not completely sure.
On Friday night, it never really felt like the game was in danger, but I wonder how much of that was because Brunson never let the Pistons make a real push. His 11 fourth quarter points were huge, and his final line of 26 points, seven assists, zero turnovers and four steals tells you need to know.
Yesterday was a far stranger outing, as Brunson was incredibly efficient, scoring 17 on nine shots, plus seven assists, three steals and one turnover, but in just 24 minutes. He left midway through the third quarter and never checked back in. OKC took advantage of Brunson defensively, but he was in great company there, and it’s not like either of Derrick Rose (who played nine second half minutes) or Evan Fournier (who played the entire fourth) were much better.
In short, he’s the easy choice for top honors because he came the closest to playing two complete games.
Beginning of the End
I want to start here, not because I think it’s the most important point or even because I necessarily believe it to be true, but just because it needs to be said:
The Knicks probably lost to a better team yesterday.
That is (and should be) hard to believe when you think about it, even for a bit. The Thunder, after all, are involved in a multi-year tanking effort that rivals anything Sam Hinkie ever did in Philadelphia. Their GM just knows how to play the game better, but the P/process is no different.
But Sam Presti’s “I’ll stay ‘till you run out of questions” press conferences aren’t enough to hide the obvious truth that wins are nothing more than an unfortunate by-product of their larger plan. That process was on full display yesterday, in the form of a team chock full players with skill sets that make sense in the modern game, and whose coach is willing to experiment with what he’s been given.
Now, that collection of players isn’t always very good - see: OKC’s 29th ranked 3-point accuracy entering yesterday’s contest - but they know exactly what they’re trying to do on both ends. They’re also led by a star, and maybe even an emerging superstar, in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had the most effortless 37 points you could ever hope to see. Led by SGA, the tanking Thunder went into MSG and scored more points against the Knicks in regulation than any team since the Kings on December 8, 1979.
That would be the Kansas City Kings, to be clear1.
Again, it has to be said: Oklahoma City isn’t a bad team, with a record that now stands at 6-7 and nearly a dead even net rating. Like any team who has lost or will lose to one of the tankers, New York’s front office should be ashamed. They should probably be even more ashamed at not leaning into an obvious tanking opportunity themselves, but that’s a different conversation for a different day. Point is, they put together a roster with the intent of getting wins. And yesterday, after setting a franchise record with 48 first quarter points and scoring 135 total points themselves, they should have been able to get one, even against a star-led team that is, arguably, better.
But as a 13-point first half lead eventually flipped to a six-point halftime deficit, which then devolved into a 19-point borderline blowout, any such hope faded away. With it, so went the hope that this season would go as planned. Just 13 games in, and just a game under .500, the alarm bells are ringing.
And getting louder by the day.
Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern. Four times? That’s a hot seat.
Over the last 12 days, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks have blown a 23-point home lead to the Hawks, gave up a franchise record 27 threes to the Celtics (also at home), were decimated by 27 by a Nets team that had been mired in turmoil just days earlier, and now gave up their most points in regulation in nearly 43 years.
For a coach whose calling card is supposed to be stability, this isn’t a great sign.
Nor is the fact that their wins in this stretch have come against a Pistons team with the worst net rating in basketball, a Sixers team missing their two best players, and a Wolves team in their own state of crisis. That the Philly victory felt miraculous and the Detroit game was within four in the fourth quarter are not encouraging signs either, nor is the fact that New York has but one victory all season - over the Embiid & Harden-less Sixers - over a team ranked higher than 20th in net rating. Of their next seven opponents, six have a top-15 net rating, and the exception is the defending world champion Warriors. The easy part of the schedule is over.
Up until now, even after Brooklyn, it felt premature to put the “not if but when” label on Thibodeau’s job status. But yesterday feels different, for a few reasons.
First and foremost is the fact that Thibs got out-coached by a wide margin, and we’re not just talking about sticking his head in the sand on substitution patterns (although there was surely some of that as well). OKC is a bad team from distance, but they played five-out all game long and the looks they were getting were practice shot quality, as has been the case all season for Knick opponents. Worse yet, New York’s defense wasn’t taking anything away at the rim even though they played a traditional center for all 48 minutes. Instead of guarding the basket, Jericho Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein were routinely caught in no man’s land, and as a result, almost every Thunder driver ate.
All the while, Thibs stayed in drop coverage, never thinking to adjust by going small and switching everything. Might it have worked? Who knows? But it certainly couldn’t have gone any worse.
Even more damning was his choice to go with Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier for 37 combined minutes even after it became clear that they needed every ounce of perimeter defense they could get.
At least Rose made a few shots. Fournier, meanwhile, finished 0-for-5, somehow ending without a point in a game in which several ushers made baskets.
Not only that, but Evan played the entire fourth quarter even though he provided no discernible benefit outside of appearing to try hard on some defensive possessions. Not appearing in that fourth quarter were two men who the Knicks spent over $200 million on this summer, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett.
Thibodeau was asked about his decision to stick with Fournier after the game, and his reasoning was that Fournier was part of a group that made a run:
On the surface, this is true. Fournier was out there as New York cut a 16-point lead down to 11 with 5:21 to go. Also true: Thibs has gotten knocked in the past for pulling bench units that have made runs only to reinsert starters that had been ineffective. Last but not least, it’s not like RJ or Brunson provided an obvious answer. Barrett had one of his worst offensive halves of the season (although he at least played respectable defense on SGA, and is known for big second half turnarounds), while Brunson was good offensively but struggling on the other end.
Squint hard enough, and you can see the thought process. But that’s also viewing things with blinders on. For one, Fournier was awful, and has been awful all season. Fittingly enough, when the Knicks did get the lead down to 11, the Frenchman took the next three shots for New York. All missed. He is now shooting 34 percent on the season and has been a glaring defensive minus throughout.
More than that, the tough love approach that Thibs seemingly applied to Brunson and Barrett was thought by many to be a nonstarter for this coach and his top players. How else could we explain the endless rope Thibodeau has given Julius Randle over the last year and change? That rope was as long as ever yesterday, as Randle toggled between failing to provide the appropriate defensive effort and getting targeted by OKC drivers who knew he wouldn’t be able to keep up (nor would he be able to make the proper rotation when another Knick picked up his slack).
Randle’s defensive performance this season, when taken in conjunction with fans’ ire over perceived favoritism, has to be viewed as the ultimate irony. He is playing like a guy trying to get his coach fired. Amidst that level of effort, what message is Tom Thibodeau sending by benching his two other cornerstone players? In particular, RJ playing only two second half minutes seemed like a message being sent. That Thibs felt such a message needed to be sent, after 12 and a half games, tells you just how much the foundation may be crumbling beneath this house.
At least he realizes the situation is dire, and that something needs to change. 145 points is a team-wide breakdown. Any reasonable excuse - like a team ranked 29th in 3-point shooting making 55 percent of their threes - falls flat. The Thunder only took 31 shots from deep. Their demolition of the Knicks was in every facet of the game. Taking it a step further, New York has the 27th ranked defense in the league over this seven-game stretch despite playing just one team ranked in the top-10 in offense. Pinning the downturn on Mitchell Robinson’s absence also feels hollow, partly because he wouldn’t solve several of these problems and partly because his presence makes their life on offense that much more difficult.
(I won’t even get into Quentin Grimes, who played eight minutes yesterday after playing eight and five the previous two games. He didn’t show up on the injury report and the Knicks claim he is fine, even if Thibodeau has claimed Grimes’ conditioning is not yet where it needs to be. The situation is truly starting to border on the bizarre.)
The worst part: even in the lowest moments this season, the Knicks haven’t played like a team that has quit on their coach. The effort, in large part, has been there.
But yesterday, these Knicks did play like a team whose coach had abandoned them, with a game plan that embodied the definition of insanity by the end.
If this is the beginning of the end for Tom Thibodeau (and spoiler alert: if they don’t win some games they’re not supposed to over the next three and a half weeks, it sure feels like it could be), it’s not because he flubbed a golden opportunity. It’s been anything but. He’s been given an imperfect, star-less roster that’s light on shooting and overstuffed with playable rotation guys.
That last part is supposed to be their strength, but so far this season, it has seemed like anything but. That’s not all on Thibs, even if he is in charge of minutes, but for as short as they are on top-end talent, even the most pessimistic fan can’t say that this is a bad roster. It’s not.
But that’s not why he might find himself out of a job before long. Nor will it be because of his continued tethering to Julius Randle, or his reluctance where the young players are concerned. It will be because he stopped winning enough games.
Thibodeau’s methods, while maddening to some, have been tolerated if not outright embraced by the front office because they have led to wins. As of today, he still has one more regular season victory as Knicks coach than he does losses. If the scales finally begin to tilt in the opposite direction, I would think a change is going to come.
Unless…
Unless the front office is so frightened of what would happen after Thibs gets fired that they refuse to make a change until the offseason. A firing followed by more losing would direct the spotlight right back where it should be: at them. Thibodeau’s act may finally be wearing thin, but expecting another coach to take on the same challenge and get better results is far from a certainty.
The end may be near, but where the big picture is concerned, the descent into darkness may only be getting started.
🏀
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter
H/t Steve Popper.
This is a brilliant assessment, Jonathan. For the first time in awhile I feel I am losing interest in the Knicks. The poor play, the frustration, the inability to use the young players properly, the silent front office, the lack of intelligence on the court, the Julius Randle fiasco, the awful owner–it's really too much for the loyal and devoted fan base. The Knicks front office, for all of the hype they generate, really couldn't care less about the rank and file fans. The fish rots from the head, and we all know where that leads. Does Rose ignore the press because that's a condition of being hired? Probably. Read Henning's great book on the Riley Knicks and you can learn about the origins of the fall when Dolan interfered with Checketts' decision-making. There is an executive malfunction at MSG. There has been for decades now. As a former university president I know malfunction in organizational life when I see it. It starts and finishes with opaque communication, petty squabbles (see the Oakley incidents), and a lack of transparency. I do think some of the basketball minds at MSG know what they are doing, but I doubt they were given carte blanche to build this team for the future. Sometimes I think the only reason I watch is to listen to Clyde and Breen, and because every one in life has to hold on to hope. Without hope, where are we?
Is this season at MSG a staging of Waiting for Godot or Götterdämmerung? I wish the Knicks' organization could just build a team that plays winning basketball. But, the Garden always seems to be a place of midtown arrogance, corporate deceit, feudalistic intrigue, ownership's bruised ego, and Cablevision's atavistic greed. How's their MSG App going to sell? Maybe, this chapter of the Knicks Saga ends in Salt Lake City if young Will Hardy's spirited Jazz piss all over the Knick's in humiliating fashion and Danny Ainge pimp walks past the Knicks bench saying, "How you like me now, mothertruckers," or words to that effect suitable for a Mormon audience. Would be poetic: Johnnie Bryant, returns to his professional basketball home and rises from the ashes of the Knicks' devastation! Or, maybe, nothing happens and we just go on. Waiting...
Thanks JM and KFS. You are a Knicks universe bright spot. The drama never stops.