Biggest Questions for Knicks vs Cavs

Plus one prediction, all courtesy of guest author Tom Piccolo

Good morning! Today I’ll be taking a break from my own multi-part series preview so guest author Tom Piccolo can shine some light on his biggest questions heading into Knicks vs Cavs. But first, we got a little news on the state of Julius…

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Per head coach Tom Thibodeau, Julius Randle participated in “some” of yesterday’s practice but did not take contact. Thibs said Randle’s participation was limited to “some running, shooting [and] scripting.”

This has been your Julius Randle health update. Carry on.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…

by Tom Piccolo

Headed into this season, I knew what this Knicks team was going to be. In my head, I might as well have etched it into the folds and grooves of my brain. I wasn’t the only one, either; we all knew exactly what was in store for us.

We knew this group was going to finish with 40-42 wins and wind up in the play-in tournament. We knew this team was a 9 or 10 seed in the making. We knew we were going to see modest, yet encouraging development from the young guys. We knew Jalen Brunson would outplay expectations and be considered a neutral contract by the end of the year. We knew this season would be a transitional one, primarily recognized for its silver lining, backlit by whichever superstar this organization set its sight on next. 

Thankfully, we knew nothing.

This team, game-by-game and possession-by-possession, managed to widen the aperture of what we viewed as possible. This team, with the same tenacity that Josh Hart employs hunting down a long rebound, obliterated any preconceived notions we had of this group and gave us the one thing that fans need: a chance.

A chance to be surprised. A chance to be a part of something bigger. A chance to witness something special. A chance to ask questions like, “What is this team really capable of?” 

This team, with their underdog, chip-on-the-shoulder ethos has reignited our spark of curiosity. With that in mind, here are four things I’m curious about heading into the series opener, plus one prediction.

1. How will Julius Randle look?

This is the biggest question of the series, bar none. I’ve heard some speculation about whether the Knicks would have a shot to beat Cleveland without their potential All-NBA forward. Certainly, crazier things have happened, but I’m convinced that the downgrade in talent, shotmaking, physicality, and depth would be too much for New York to overcome if he were to miss multiple games. Regardless, I hope we don’t have to find out. 

One thing we do know is this: If Julius Randle is healthy enough to go, this coach is going to play him big minutes. How he performs may very well act as the bellwether for this series. An area I’ll specifically be monitoring is Randle’s three-point shooting. One reason Randle had his most efficient season since coming to NYC (in terms of both eFG and TS%) is that he cut back on the long twos in favor of threes (one of the many benefits of Jalen Brunson’s presence). 

Randle particularly leaned on the long ball to help set the tone at the beginning of games. No player took or made more first quarter threes than Julius Randle who averaged 38.8% on 3.5 attempts in opening periods this season. 

It’s critical for Julius to get off to hot starts. For one, it should help him mentally, allowing him to find a rhythm and lock in on both sides of the floor. We know from watching this guy over the years that seeing the ball go through the net energizes him, and that energy ripples to both sides of the court, animating other parts of his game that may otherwise lay dormant.

Randle finding his stroke early should provide more tangible results too. Not only does his shooting open up the floor for drives by the likes of Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett, but his spacing should pull Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (assuming Mobley starts matched up on Julius) away from the rim where he's been among the league’s best deterrents this season, ranking sixth in the league in total blocks. If Mobley doesn’t respect the shot, Julius has to make him pay. Watch here as the Cavs big leaves Ju to tag Jericho Sims on the roll, leading to a miscommunication and a wide open Randle three:

Mobley is most comfortable roving off-ball, patrolling the paint. If he is forced to respect Randle’s shot from the jump, it should pay massive dividends throughout the series.

2. Can New York dominate the possession game?

“How on earth did the Knicks finish with a top-4 offense despite being a below average shooting and assisting team?” For one, they get to the free throw line a lot — good for the eighth-best free throw attempt rate in the league. Secondly they dominate the possession game by snaring a lot of offensive rebounds (second in OREB%) and committing very few turnovers (fifth in TO%). It’s those last two strengths that make them particularly well-suited for this matchup versus Cleveland. 

First, the Cavs struggle to end possessions with a defensive rebound. In the 38 games since January 16, the Cavaliers ranked 29th in defensive rebounding. Paradoxically, teams have not been able to do much damage with those additional opportunities, as Cleveland ranked top-10 in second-chance points allowed during that time frame. 

But, New York is a different animal. On the season, the Knicks rank third in second-chance points thanks to the efforts of Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Josh Hart. The Knicks will get second chances and it’s imperative that they are able to convert them into points.

Specifically, I think there’s potential to exploit Evan Mobley’s slight frame and welcome him to postseason basketball, as Benjy Ritholtz showed after the last time the teams played.

As long as Robinson and Hartenstein are playing aggressively, New York’s bigs have a level of strength and physicality that Cleveland simply cannot match.

Then, on the turnovers front, Cleveland’s offense largely relies on its ability to turn opponents over and score off those miscues. On the season, the Cavs rank fourth in opponent TO% and third in both total points scored off turnovers and points per possession off live-ball turnovers.

New York, on the other hand, has been elite at protecting the ball. Their TO% of 13.1% was top-five in the league this season. Brunson is as reliable as a metronome. Of the top 50 players in MPG this season, JB ranked 4th in TO Ratio (measuring TOs per 100 possessions used) behind just Kawhi Leonard, Mikal Bridges and Kyrie Irving. Immanuel Quickley’s TO Ratio was even better.

However, in the four game sample of the season, the Cavs did give New York some issues forcing turnovers. On the season, the Knicks averaged just 13 TOs per game, but in the four games vs. Cleveland, they coughed it up 15.5 times per game. If New York is going to have a chance to outscore this Cleveland team, they’ll need as many bites at the apple as possible, protecting the ball and not giving this Cavs team a chance to capitalize on turnovers.

3. How will the Cavs handle the Knicks pick-and-roll attack?

The Knicks finished the regular season with the number one ranked offense following a made basket, per Inpredictable. That means, when opponents scored and were able to get back to set up their defense, the Knicks were still able to answer back, converting at a league-high efficiency. 

A big reason for that is the team’s pick-and-roll attack. We saw in the fourth and final regular season game versus Cleveland that the Cavs really struggled to contain Jalen Brunson. It should be noted that Isaac Okoro missed that game with an injury, so as a result, the Cavs were trying everything and everything to stop Jalen.

They tried switching screens. Brunson torched any mismatch thrown his way:

The Knicks were even able to punish the other side of the switch when Mobley ended up on Brunson.

Here, Hartenstein gets his number called and makes the most of it, drawing the defense’s attention before dumping it to RJ Barrett on a beautiful cut.

They tried trapping. Brunson made the right play – here he finds Mitch on the short roll, who makes the smart pass out to Obi who swings to RJ in the corner.

They tried having their big get up to the level of the screen, again to no avail.

Brunson had an answer for everything. So, the question becomes: when Okoro matches up on Brunson, how will Cleveland handle screens? I’m particularly curious how they handle guard-to-guard screens. I can see Donovan Mitchell going with the hedge and recover technique. It makes sense for Cleveland to not trust his ability to stop Brunson one-on-one.

But what about Darius Garland? Will the Cavs really allow their defense to get into rotation because they are afraid to switch Garland onto Brunson? If he gets the switch, will Brunson be able to exploit that matchup with his array of post moves? This game inside the game will be the most fun tactical piece to monitor.

4. Will Tom Thibodeau consider letting the Deuce loose?

On the other side of the ball, the Cavaliers ranked third in the league in points per possession on plays finished by the pick-and-roll ball-handler. Both Mitchell and Garland rank in the top-12 in points scored when finishing PnRs. If you catch them on the wrong night, Caris LeVert and Ricky Rubio both have the on-ball juice to light up a defense on a given day. Conversely, the Knicks gave up 20 points per game to PnR ball-handlers, the fourth-most in the league.

The Knicks starters will likely have Quentin Grimes matched up on Spida, then RJ Barrett on Darius Garland, with Brunson hiding on Okoro. That is a tough matchup for RJ who typically does better sliding up a position to use his strength against bigger opponents. 

In general, I’m dubious of the Knicks perimeter defenders as far as their ability to guard the point of attack and stop dribble penetration. Grimes is a solid option, but we’ve seen before that he can get tricked into silly fouls, and his shooting on the other end is too valuable to lose to foul trouble. Even off the bench – Josh Hart is another guy who does a good job against bigger wings, using his strength and physicality to bump guys off their spot. And, Immanuel Quickley is a virtuoso off-ball, but his on-ball defense is often just so-so. 

All of this is to say: I’d give strong consideration to giving Deuce McBride spot minutes. He is, without question, the best on-ball defender on the team and his maniacal defense always gives this team a jolt of energy and toughness. I’m not saying I need big minutes from Deuce, but I do think some short stints where he can go all-out and make life uncomfortable for the Cavs’ guards would make a real impact. Think about it, Thibs!

1 Prediction

I’m taking the Knicks in six. Now, that brings up some valid questions. Am I taking the Knicks simply because I am a fan of this team and I am writing a column for the Knicks Film School newsletter? To take this to an extreme, if my life depended on predicting the outcome correctly, would I still take the Knicks over the Cavs? Do I just want to manifest a Knicks playoff clinching win at Madison Square Garden? Am I too invested to take my prediction seriously?

And, to be honest, I’m really not sure. I truly believe this Knicks team, if close to fully healthy, does match up pretty well against Cleveland. I like the Knicks’ depth a lot more. As discussed, New York has real strengths that can be used to exploit Cleveland’s weaknesses. There’s enough here for me to justify taking the Knicks and not thinking it’s some massive homer pick.

But, I also think it’s OK to pick with the heart. This Knicks team has shown us over and over that they’re a special group.Will they beat the Cavs? I say, yes. But, either way, there’s a chance and that’s all that matters.

Tom Piccolo is a contributing writer and frequent podcast guest for Knicks Film School and the co-host of Talkin’ Knicks. When he’s not sharing his insight on the Knicks, he’s doing PR and communications for Jomboy Media.

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