But I WANT It!

We all know Fred VanVleet is going to get overpaid this summer. But how much is too much, and should the Knicks go over the sticker price to get him?

Before I get to today’s edition, a brief but heartfelt Thank You to everyone who already became a paid subscriber. Never could I have anticipated the launch getting the amount of attention it did, to say nothing of the number of you who signed up. I don’t get overwhelmed…and I was overwhelmed.

I may not know every one of you personally, but please know that I appreciate each and every person who has ever read this, and especially those of you who are continuing on the journey with me. We will forever be joined in our sick, twisted love for this godforsaken team, and I, for one, couldn’t be happier about it.

And if you haven’t yet signed up to become a paid subscriber (only three free newsletters left!) you can still get in on the launch week special of $3 per month or $30 per year right here:

One final thing: if you have not already done so early, please, please vote. Vote with your head. Vote with your heart. Vote with our present or our future in mind. And please vote with an open mind and an open heart. Just vote.

And now, finally, on to the (slightly longer than normal) newsletter:

News & Notes

• Adam Silver sounded less than encouraging yesterday when he noted that “we’re running out of time” to get a deal done in time to start the ‘20-21 NBA season by the proposed date of December 22.

• ESPN’s Jonathan Givony theorized on Windy’s pod that the Knicks would be very pleased if Tyrese Halliburton made it to them at 8.

  I don’t have any intel here but I don’t think he’s that far off base. I could easily see Haliburton being sixth on the Knicks board after Ball, Wiseman, Edwards, Toppin and Deni (and I’m assuming as much with the later three, especially Deni, who we really haven’t heard connected to New York at all). I could also see Killian, Vass and Okoro all being ahead of Hali. Maybe Kira too, although I doubt it.

• According to Adam Zagoria, Kansas Sophomore PG Devon Dotson has met with the Knicks, as well as several other teams picking between 20 and 36. He is projected to go anywhere from the late first to the mid-second. He’s also very fast.

• Lastly, it was incorrectly reported yesterday that scoring machine Grant Riller measured with a 6’7” wingspan. Jonathan Wasserman later corrected the record: it’s 6’5.25”.

  These are the hard-hitting stories, folks.

Ask Macri

Fern @TheRealFern_FR3

@shwinnypooh @JCMacriNBA Here is my question. What can the Lakers offer OKC. What picks do they have left? Does okc love kuzma? Plus he need to get paid. Even if the laker have a package I can't imagine it that amazing that the Knicks would have to give up that much to still get cp3.

knicks lyfe @freespree5

@JCMacriNBA Per your newsletter today, let’s say Sam Presti calls Leon Rose, the Clippers, and the Lakers, and says final and best offer by midnight. What is each of the three teams’ offer left on the table? Also.... could BK be a dark horse?? @TheCohencidence @mikeplugh

Here are what I assume the packages would be from each team based on salary-matching needs and appropriate value:

Lakers: Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (must opt in or agree to sign and trade), Avery Bradley, Quinn Cook and the 28th pick

This trade would have to happen in the new league year, first due to the issue of OKC not currently having enough roster spots to pull off a deal, but also because the Lakers can’t trade away their first rounder before draft night having already dealt away their 2021 pick in the AD trade.

That said, the teams could agree beforehand and LA would be making the pick for OKC. There’s another version of the deal that includes Kyle Kuzma, but Kuzma and the pick feels a little rich, especially with the vets LA is giving up and the subsequent value those guys might net OKC in a midseason trade or two. That said, the Lakers could feel forced if their crosstown rivals were competing for Paul’s services.

On that note…

Clippers: Montrezl Harrell (sign and trade), Patrick Beverly, Ivica Zubac (or Lou Williams) and Landry Shamet

The Clippers are hamstrung in that they’ve already traded away nearly every future draft asset they have, all of which are unprotected, to OKC. They’ve not only lost the kids in the divorce, but gotten a vasectomy in the process.

Thankfully, their package of current players has more value than the Lakers’ offer. Harrell at the right number would be an asset, and Zubac or Williams can fetch value in a trade. Maybe Pat Bev too. So that leaves Shamet vs the 28th pick. In this draft, I’d say Shamet has the edge, even if he is two years away from his next contract.

If the Lakers put Kuzma into the deal, it becomes very close though, even if he is going to seek a big contract in a year.

Brooklyn: Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, Garrett Temple, Jarrett Allen and the 19th pick

Do Paul and Irving really fit well together? Especially given how much KD likes to have the ball? Jrue Holiday is such a cleaner fit, I don’t see this one happening.

Knicks: Julius Randle, Frank Ntilikina and the 27th pick

This is the most I can see Leon Rose giving up, and it isn’t as good as either of the LA packages. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I feel pretty good about this one.

Translation: if either of the LA teams wants Paul, they’re probably going to get him. If both LA teams make a play for him, New York doesn’t stand a chance.

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Switching up the “Read This” section to highlight up & coming writers who could use your clicks (and actually put our content worth clicking on). Today, Alex Trataros writes about three options for the Knicks at the 8th pick.

Tweet of the Night

Zack Stentz @MuseZack

Tonight's mood:

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But I WANT it!

There are two types of overpays.

The first type of overpay is one you’re all too happy to make, like yesterday, when we took our daughter to Michael’s to get some Thanksgiving crafts to do while home from school today.

She insisted that before we left the store, she absolutely must have this thing:

Now I knew darn well that she’d forget this toy existed by the time she got home. Hell, she probably knew it too. But it didn’t stop her from throwing herself on the floor as we approached the cash register and crying like a banshee.

Needless to say, I relented. She stood up calmly as if nothing had happened, and we all walked to the car, one with slightly less pride, and with the balance of power tilting ever so slightly in her direction as I continue to lose ground quicker than the French.

Nevertheless, this was an acceptable overpay.

A week prior, however, when we went to Target for dishwasher pods and my daughter wanted to walk out with an 18-piece Disney Princess doll set, I deemed that an unacceptable overpay (thankfully the store was rather empty and her shrieks fell mostly on deaf ears).

Point is, when it comes to knowingly paying more than you’d like, there is a thin line between acceptable and unacceptable, and in the case of NBA contracts, cap-crippling and merely annoying.

I got to thinking of the difference between the two after reading John Hollinger’s article yesterday for The Athletic in which he pegged Fred VanVleet’s value at almost $22 million annually ($21.96 to be exact). It reminded me of a convo I had with Shwin on a recent pod we did together in which he said he’d be more than happy to give Freddy the Malcolm Brogdon contract, which is four years, $85 million. At Hollinger’s number, FVV would be getting four for $88 mil.

Whether $22 million per season over four years would be enough to get VanVleet to leave Toronto is anyone’s guess, although my assumption is that getting him to New York would require something closer to a contract worth a nice, round $100 million. Let’s split the difference at $23.5 million per year / $94 million total. My gut (read: I’m not reporting this) is that New York would at least entertain such a number, depending of course on what happens with Chris Paul, and to a lesser extent the draft.

So how bad would that be, exactly? Would that slot into the regular old “acceptable overpay” category? Or is there is a chance it would it venture into the dreaded “unacceptable, 18-piece Princess” category? The difference is huge, because even acceptable overpays have value on the trade market and are almost always in demand. Unacceptable overpays? Not so much.

As I am wont to do, I looked to recent history for the answer, going through the last five years of free agency to see how the larger deals of the NBA have aged. The goal is to put each of these into one of four groups: Unacceptable Overpays, Borderline, Acceptable Overpays, or Not Analogous.

(For my breakdown of Fred VanVleet’s game and his fit on the Knicks, I covered that a few months ago here)

Here were my perameters:

• I only looked at players who had made one or zero All-Star games when they signed their contract, but I didn’t waste time listing players who showed clear All-NBA potential when they signed their deal (Towns, Booker, Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Beal and Kawhi)

• I only considered deals that were at least three fully-guaranteed years in length.

• For rookie contract extension guys, I listed them in the year when the deal kicked in.

• I listed all player contracts meeting the above two criteria and were either above the $23.5 million annual number I’m assuming for VanVleet or within 20 percent of it’s cap percentage equivalent for any given year (for example, $23.5 million is 21.5 percent of next year’s presumed $109 million cap. In 2015, 21.5 percent of the cap would equate to $15 million, so I only looks at contracts whose average annual value was within 20 percent of that figure. I promise I’m making this seem more confusing than it actually is. Just keep reading.)

Starting with the most recent deals, and going backwards…

2019 - $109 million cap

2019 equivalent of $23.5 million: $23.5 million

Tobias Harris, 27

Re-signed with Philadelphia - 5 years, $180 million, $36 million annually

This is a year longer and over 50 percent more per year than what I’m figuring VanVleet will fetch, so it’t not really analogous, although it’s notable that this has aged about as well as a tuna melt left out on a Texas porch in the middle of July.

Verdict: Not Analogous

Khris Middleton, 28

Re-signed with Milwaukee - 5 years, $177.5 million, $35.5 million annually

Similar to the Harris pact except Middleton is a much better fit on his current roster, and the Bucks had no choice but to sign this mammoth deal. Again, not really learning much here.

Verdict: Not Analogous

Kristaps Porzingis, 24

Extended with Dallas - 5 years, $158.2 million, $31.6 million annually

Hate him all you want, but Dallas probably does this again. At the very least, they have a meeting about it and immediately rue the decision they don’t make either way.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

D’Angelo Russell, 23

Signed and traded from Brooklyn to GS - 4 years, $117 million, $29.3 million annually

A year into this deal and Russell seems to still be viewed as an asset, although I’m not sure its fair to go by what Minnesota gave up to acquire him given that Karl Anthony-Towns has that franchise by the cojones.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Nikola Vucevic, 28

Re-signed with Orlando - 4 years, $100 million, $25 million annually

I’ve never had a great read on Vooch and have even less of one now that we may be on the verge of a big man resurgence but he also doesn’t defend at anything close to a passable level. Either way, this is fine.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Harrison Barnes, 27

Re-signed with Sacramento - 4 years, $85 million, $21.25 million annually

No one thought Barnes was worth this deal at the time he signed it and no one thinks he’s worth it now, but the consensus on him hasn’t really changed much, and it’s easy to see teams continuing to talk themselves into him as only a slight overpay. For what he gives you at both ends, that’s not nuts.

Verdict: Borderline

Malcolm Brogdon, 26

Signed and traded from Milwaukee to Indiana - 4 years, $85 million, $21.25 mil. annually

If Shwin says its acceptable, well…it must be acceptable.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Myles Turner, 23

Extended with Indiana - 4 years, $80 million, $20 million annually

One of the few deals on here that looks like something close to an underpay, although not quite because Turner still hasn’t taken that one final step you’d ideally have liked to see.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Terry Rozier, 23

Signed with Charlotte - 3 years, $56.7 million, $18.9 million annually

I hate Rozier, but this deal was short enough and his numbers were good enough that it can’t be considered unacceptable. I refuse to give him the complete benefit of the doubt though, if only because I know how much whiskey I’d consume if the Knicks ever traded for him.

Verdict: Borderline

2018 - $101 million cap

2018 equivalent of $23.5 million: $21.7 million

Andrew Wiggins, 23

Extended with Minnesota - 5 years, $147.7 million, $29.5 million annually

I refuse to believe there isn’t someone out there who could still talk themselves into taking this on with a halfway decent sweetener, but this is still really bad. This also really isn’t quite analagous given how much more Wiggins got two years ago than VanVleet figures to get now. We also had the “former first overall pick” bump that made this pretty stinky in the moment (not to mention unnecessary, as it was inked a year before he entered unrestricted free agency)

Verdict: Not Analogous

Gary Harris, 24

Extended with Denver - 4 years, $84 million, $21 million annually

Tough to judge because he’s been playing hurt for significant portions of the last two years, although it’s also fair to point out that he wasn’t exactly a picture of health before he signed this extension either. But yours truly nearly talked himself into taking this contract into New York’s cap space on a pod this weekend, so I can’t sit here now and say it’s egregious.

Verdict: Borderline

Aaron Gordon, 23

Extended with Orlando - 4 years, $80 million, $20 million annually

The textbook definition of meh.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Zach LaVine, 23

Extended with Chicago - 4 years, $78 million, $19.5 million annually

Would still very much love to see LaVine on the Knicks at some point if the price is right.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Clint Capela, 24

Extended with Houston - 5 years, $90 million, $18 million annually

Atlanta just gave up a solid asset to acquire the remaining three years of Capela’s deal. All it takes is one asshole, as they say, but it’s enough to give him the benefit of doubt here.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

2017 - $99 million cap

2017 equivalent of $23.5 million: $21.3 million

Gordon Hayward, 27

Signed with Boston - 4 years, $127.83 million, $31.95 million annually

I don’t know what you do with this. Between the injury and the fact that this is almost 50 percent more (in 2017 dollars) than VanVleet figures to get, this isn’t really a helpful comp for our purposes.

Verdict: Not Analogous

Otto Porter, 24

Signed O.S. w/ Brooklyn (Washington matched) - 4 years, $106.54 mil, $26.6 mil. annually

A year and a half into this, Chicago willingly took it on, giving up a vaguely interesting young player they had no intention of extending by the name of Bobby Portis (plus Jabari Parker’s cadaver and a second rounder) for the privilege. Since then, Porter’s been hurt quite a bit. And you know what? It’s still not that terrible.

Verdict: Borderline

Jrue Holiday, 27

Re-signed with New Orleans - 5 years, $131.8 million, $26.3 million annually

I love Jrue and I don’t care how much he makes.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Rudy Gobert, 25

Extended with Utah - 4 years, $102 million, $25.5 million annually

Dude’s won two DPOY awards and finished second last year. The contract has been a gem. His next pact, on the other hand…

Verdict: VALUE!!! (confetti rains from the ceiling)

Steven Adams, 24

Extended with Oklahoma City - 4 years, $100 million, $25 million annually

He’s so helpful to winning games that no one ever cared how much this contract probably wouldn’t have been tradable had OKC ever actually tried to move it. The center version of Fred VanVleet, perhaps?

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Serge Ibaka, 28

Re-signed with Toronto - 3 years, $65 million, $21.66 million annually

He helped them win a ring.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Danilo Gallinari, 29

Signed with LA Clippers - 3 years, $64.7 million, $21.58 million annually

This was bad the minute it happened, got a lot worse when Gallo missed 61 games during the first year, balanced out when he was damn good in 2018-19, got salary dumped in the Paul George trade, and finally was in demand at the trade deadline. I’m splitting the difference.

Verdict: Borderline

Victor Oladipo, 25

Extended with Oklahoma City - 4 years, $84 million, $21 million annually

Regardless of how rough the last year and a half has been, Dipo made two All-Star teams in the first two years of this deal.

Verdict: Value!

Tim Hardaway Jr, 25

Signed Offer Sheet with New York - 4 years, $71 million, $17.7 million annually

You know…here’s the thing: had it been any team other than the one whose entire organizational plan centered around clearing every possible penny for the mere chance that the bottle stopped spinning in front of them, this wouldn’t be viewed as quite the disaster it is around these parts.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay (but barely)

2016 - $94 million cap

2016 equivalent of $23.5 million: $20.2 million (As I’ll get into more before we finish up, it should also be noted that the cap spike had GM’s treating real dollars like Monopoly money in 2016, so the below prices should probably be decreased a tad to accomodate for the overspending that went on league-wide.)

Mike Conley, 29

Re-signed with Memphis - 5 years, $153 million, $30.66 million annually

Memphis was between a rock and a hard place here…the cap spike plus them being SOL if Conley every left was just a bad combo at the worst time. And yet: they were probably happy with how the deal turned out.

Verdict: Not Analogous

C.J. McCollum, 25

Re-signed with Portland - 4 years, $106 million, $26.5 million annually

He’s given them everything they could have (reasonably) asked for.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Andre Drummond, 23

Re-signed with Detroit - 5 years, $130 million, $26 million annually

There were rumors the Knicks wanted to trade for this at last year’s deadline, and the general consensus was that this wasn’t completely insane. Drummond isn’t my cup of tea and may not be yours, but this never veered into true disaster territory.

Verdict: Borderline

Hassan Whiteside, 27

Re-signed with Miami - 4 years, $98 million, $24.5 million annually

Finally, Timmy gets company!

(That’s not really even fair. Portland more or less willingly took this on without getting an asset, only having to give up two less than ideal contracts in return. Still, this was bad.)

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Nicolas Batum, 28

Re-signed with Charlotte - 5 years, $120 million, $24 million annually

Aged as poorly as any contract signed in the last five years.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Chandler Parsons, 28

Signed with Memphis - 4 years, $94 million, $23.5 million annually

Actually, on second thought, this one comes close. Man, the summer of 2016 was rough.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Harrison Barnes, 24

Signed with Dallas - 4 years, $94 million, $23.5 million annually

Seemed like a lot at the time, but was always viewed as a decent deal, even if Barnes never seemed to do enough to justify that stance.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Evan Fournier, 24

Re-signed with Orlando - 5 years, $85 million, $17 million annually

Fine. He’s been fine. Just…fine.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

There were a bunch more big deals in the summer of 2016 that were all unacceptable overpays - Ryan Anderson (4/80), Allen Crabbe (4/75), Joakim Noah (4/72), Luol Deng (4/72), Bismack Biyombo (4/72), Kent Bazemore (4/70), Evan Turner (4/70) and Ian Mahinmi (4/64) - but they really aren’t relevant to the Fred VanVleet discussion for one very important reason: the minute they were inked, everyone knew what a disaster they were. In other words, if VanVleet signed for his max - something around $120 million - it still wouldn’t be viewed as instantly putrid as any of these.

2015 - $70 million cap

2016 equivalent of $23.5 million: $15 million

DeAndre Jordan, 27

Re-signed with LA Clippers - 4 years, $88 million, $22 million annually

DJ wasn’t ever as good defensively after he signed this as he was in his prime, but he still earned his paychecks.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Brook Lopez, 27

Re-signed with Brooklyn - 3 years, $60 million, $20 million annually

Brook always did his thing.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Wes Matthews, 29

Signed with Dallas - 4 years, $70 million, $17.5 million annually

Wes never came close to living up to this contract, but it never possessed anywhere close to the stink of a truly bad deal. Matthews was usually helpful, even when he wasn’t at his best

Verdict: Borderline

Enes Kanter, 23

Signed Portland O.S., OKC matched - 4 years, $70 million, $17.5 million annually

Ha!

Verdict: F*** Off (Unacceptable Overpay)

Goran Dragic, 29

Re-signed with Miami - 5 years, $86 million, $17.2 million annually

They’d do it again in a heartbeat.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Greg Monroe, 25

Signed with Milwaukee - 3 years, $51 million, $17 million annually

The best move Phil Jackson never made (even though he tried). Monroe pretty quickly looked bad in Milwaukee and was a shell of his Detroit self by the time this was over.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Draymond Green, 25

Re-signed with Golden State - 5 years, $82 million, $16.4 million annually

Best one on our board.

Verdict: Value!

Tobias Harris, 23

Re-signed with Orlando - 4 years, $64 million, $16 million annually

Got two teams to treat him like a value-add over the course of this deal, and got himself a huge raise. Still can’t call this one a value contract though.

Verdict: Acceptable Overpay

Reggie Jackson, 25

Re-signed with Detroit - 5 years, $80 million, $16 million annually

Jackson really fell off a cliff over the last year or two, but for a while after he signed this, he was seen as a solid, mid-tier starting point guard in the league.

Verdict: Borderline

DeMarre Carroll, 29

Signed with Toronto - 4 years, $60 million, $15 million annually

This really didn’t age well, seemingly because Carroll never fit as well in Toronto as he did in an Atlanta system that was perfectly suited to his strengths and minimized his weaknesses. For all the “VanVleet is a system guy” tinfoil hat people, Carroll should probably be Exhibit A as to why the Knicks should steer clear.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Brandon Knight, 24

Re-signed with Phoenix - 5 years, $70 million, $14 million annually

Up there with Parsons in terms of how badly this one aged thanks mostly to injuries.

Verdict: Unacceptable Overpay

Khris Middleton, 24

Re-signed with Milwaukee - 5 years, $70 million, $14 million annually

A steal in retrospect.

Verdict: Value.

OK, that’s 42 total contracts. Five weren’t analogous (Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, Andrew Wiggins, Gordon Hayward and Mike Conley) with the rest falling into the categories as such:

A few notes:

• It’s really rare to sign someone that isn’t a surefire perennial All-Star to a big money deal and have that contract truly be considered a great value. Even the “values” on the list above all have caveats (Gobert is the rare non-All-Star who has clear top-25 player value, Oladipo took an out-of-nowhere mid-career jump, and Green and Middleton got to play alongside two-time MVP’s)

• That said, there’s actually a pretty good chance that the player you sign won’t give you buyer’s remorse. Even the borderline guys above either aren’t or weren’t guys whose teams were pining to move off their money, even if they never would have fetched much in a trade.

• There are pretty good excuses to explain away most of the Unacceptable Overpay guys, or at the very least, distinguish them from VanVleet were he to sign a four-year deal worth somewhere between $88 and $100 million:

  • Hardaway Jr. was seen in the moment as a disastrous deal. His assumed market value - three or four years at $12 million per - was about half what he ended up getting. Everyone seems to agree VanVleet is worth at least $18 million annually on the low end.

  • Whiteside is the oddest of odd birds and Miami ignored the clear warning signs when they made him very, very rich.

  • Parsons’ and Knights’ bodies simply broke down.

  • Portland screwed OKC over with the Kanter offer sheet, and the game changed in such a way as to litigate him off the court. Ditto for Monroe.

That leaves Batum and Carroll as the best possible cautionary tales, and really, if that’s all there is, I’m not terribly worried. Batum’s deal was an extra year at a higher number, and he never had a season in Portland that was anywhere close to as good (or where he played nearly as large or a role) as VanFleet just did in Toronto. The same goes for Carroll in Atlanta, where he was the clear fifth fiddle.

In short, if the Knicks find themselves in a position to sign Fred VanVleet, whether its to $18 or $21 or $24 million a year, they should probably do it and feel good about the decision. Yes, this year’s paltry free agent class - and the fact that VanVleet looks much better by association - should factor in, but the league’s impending financial woes should at least help to balance out any truly absurd number he would otherwise get. Valuations like Hollinger’s only help his cause.

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Lastly, and most importantly, a final reminder: VOTE!!!!! #BlackLivesMatter