Continuity Counts
For the first time in a long time, the Knicks will bring back the same core as the previous season.
Good morning! Knicks training camp officially started yesterday in Charleston, South Carolina, harkening back to the days of Pat Riley, Patrick Ewing, and the 90’s teams that nearly won it all. Something tells me this group thinks it can do the same, and a big reason is because there won’t be any “getting to know you” period of camp. These guys are already very much on the same page.
We’ll tackle that topic today, in a special mid-week free edition for all subscribers.
And remember, if you want to get the KFS Newsletter delivered in your inbox every weekday (plus some weekends) and have access to daily chat threads, all for less than the price of a cup of coffee (sad but true), become a full subscriber today.
Continuity Counts
Continuity.
It’s not a four letter word, but it’s still plenty dirty around these parts.
While shorter contracts and player empowerment have made it far more difficult to keep an NBA roster intact today than it used to be, few teams in the 21st century have experienced as much roster turnover as the Knicks.
Since the end of the Ewing era 23 years ago, 220 different players have suited up in at least one game for the franchise1. That seems like a lot, but it’s also not too out of whack with normal NBA standards. The Spurs are at 184 players in the same time frame, while the Heat are at 194, and both are considered top tier organizations.
Roster fluctuation is the new normal for everyone, not just the Knicks. But even if all teams experience some healthy turnover from time to time, the one owned by James Dolan has been in a constant state of change.
Need proof? Basketball Reference keeps track of the percentage of a team's regular season minutes that were filled by players from the previous season's roster. Throughout all 77 years of NBA history, only once has a team had a continuity score below 50 percent for six consecutive seasons: the New York Knickerbockers from 2014-15 to 2019-20.
Just how unprecedented is that level of turnover? Only one other time has a team failed to top 50 percent in this metric in four consecutive seasons (the Lakers, from 2012-13 to 2015-16).
In addition to those half dozen consecutive seasons of flux, New York has had five other seasons in the last two decades where they brought back fewer than 55 percent of the previous season’s minutes getters. Only the Nets, with 12 such seasons, top that total.
The last time New York had consecutive seasons with exactly the same core rotation of players was a quarter century ago. In both the 1999 and ‘99-00 seasons, the top eight Knicks in minutes per game were Patrick Ewing, Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, Marcus Camby Larry Johnson, Kurt Thomas, Charlie Ward and Chris Childs. There were some differences between the two years, like Spree going from super-sub to starter and Ewing taking a bit of a dip in usage rate, but for the most part things remained unchanged.
And why wouldn’t they? New York made a surprising run to the Finals in ‘99 after a fairly tumultuous lockout-shortened regular season, so there was no reason to break up the group before seeing what they could do for a follow-up act. It turned out to be a pretty good decision, as Jeff Van Gundy’s troops made it all the way to the 2000 conference finals. That summer they traded Ewing, and haven’t gone as deep in the playoffs since.
Might this be the year they break the drought? They have a few things going for them - two All-Star caliber players in their primes, a deep roster full of proven NBA commodities, and a relatively open Eastern conference after the top two teams - but their greatest strength is arguably continuity.
I wrote about the concept of continuity earlier this summer and concluded that it wasn’t the panacea it is often made out to be. A well-balanced roster and the right star(s) can go a long way, even if a group hasn’t been together for long. Alternatively, a bad mix of stars and/or role players probably won’t age like a fine wine.
That isn’t to say continuity isn’t a popular goal for NBA teams. Before the 2014-15 season, Golden State GM Bob Myers seemed prescient when he said the following:
“If you've played basketball, you know there is a hard-to-quantify element of continuity. Playing together with the same group of people for a long time makes you better. It just does.”
Four titles and two additional Finals appearances later, Myers seems like a genius.
Would that be true if the Minnesota Timberwolves had selected Steph Curry instead of Jonny Flynn in the 2009 NBA Draft? Probably not.
But if continuity is a rising tide, that’s great news for the Knicks.
Just like in 1999 and 2000, the eight players who averaged at least 20 minutes per game will all be back in the Big Apple this season.
Even taken in the context of relative stability (by Knicks standards, at least) under head coach Tom Thibodeau, this will be a pretty big change. Here’s how the last three years have gone in relation to the one before it:
2020-21: After the rotation was set, the only holdovers from the final pre-Leon roster were Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock and Taj Gibson. Gibson was a third string center who ended up playing a lot thanks to Robinson missing 41 games, but if we put him aside, only half of the rotation from the previous year ended up playing big roles. Rookies Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin both got significant time, free agent signees Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel were big contributors, and midseason acquisition Derrick Rose arguably became their most important player.
2021-22: While the quantity of rotation changes wasn’t as high as the previous summer, the quality (or lack thereof) was massive. Both starting backcourt spots turned over with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier replacing Payton and Bullock, with mostly disastrous results. Injuries also sidelined Noel and Rose for over 50 games each, while newcomers Quentin Grimes and Jericho Sims made their presence known before too long.
2022-23: In what may turn out to be the most significant free agent signing in franchise history, Jalen Brunson took over as New York’s starting point guard and locker room leader. His stabilizing presence transformed the Knicks into a top-six team over the final two thirds of the season, but only after a tumultuous start that saw Fournier, Rose and Cam Reddish play their way out of rotation spots. Quentin Grimes also grabbed a bigger role, Josh Hart had a massive impact after he arrived, and new backup five Isaiah Hartenstein ended up playing more minutes than Mitch.
Which brings us to this season, where the biggest loss will be that of Obi Toppin, who played a scant 15 minutes a game over the course of his tenure2. Obi’s indirect replacement will be Donte DiVincenzo, which will make Tom Thibodeau’s life both easier and harder, but that’s a conversation for a different day. In terms of continuity, Donte’s below average usage rate, easily adaptable play style, and familiarity with his college teammates should make his transition into the rotation as seamless as any in the Thibs era.
So, for the big question: How much does continuity actually matter?
The answer depends on the evidence you choose to consider.
On one hand, we have the Nuggets and Lakers, two teams who faced off in the Western Conference Finals before Denver won it all. According to Basketball Reference, of all 30 NBA teams, only Utah had less roster continuity from ‘21-22 to ‘22-23 than LA (which ranked 29th) and the eventual champs (28th). On the other end of the spectrum, Chicago tied for the second highest continuity score, and they were the walking definition of uninspiring mediocrity. Clearly, continuity isn’t the be all, end all.
But the Nuggets and Lakers also employed Nikola Jokic and LeBron James, who are perhaps the two superstars least impacted by roster changes. The Bulls, meanwhile, were missing their ultimate glue guy in Lonzo Ball.
On the “pro-continuity” side, we have the Miami Heat, who led the league in continuity from ‘21-22 to last season. They had an up and down regular season, but were able to band together in the postseason for a run to the NBA Finals.
Looking back over the last three seasons, no team has consistently returned more of the previous year’s roster than the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve won 61 percent of their games in that time - fifth most behind only the Suns, Bucks, Sixers and Nuggets.
We could find dozens more examples from recent years to support both both the pro and con cases, but I don’t think that’s necessary. With Josh Hart in the rotation, New York was on a 60-win pace before two meaningless losses to end the season. Clearly, something about this group works, at least during the regular season.
Picking up right where they left off without many adjustments in store should give them a leg up on the competition to start the year. With a brutal early slate of games, that could wind up making a significant difference when we get to playoff seeding time in April.
🏀
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See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter
The franchise minutes leader since the start of the 2000-01 season is Carmelo Anthony, unsurprisingly. In second place? Kurt Thomas!
Cue to Obi stans everywhere shedding a single tear into their morning coffee.
These knicks remind me of those lillard/matthews/batum/aldridge/Lopez blazers team from a decade ago. A chance for a big "sum is greater than the parts" season since I believe all these knicks can be a star in their role
Love it. I very much believe the continuity is a big plus for us, and appreciate the attempt to ‘quantify’ it - though that’s a very tricky pursuit as the difference is likely to be observed as an improvement in collective play among the ‘continuous’ players so it would likely be more of a ‘within-subjects’ effect than a ‘between subjects’ one. That having been said: I’m looking for the continuity effects to be most observable in the first 20 games of the season compared with last season. We got off slow last year in part bc JB and JR were working out how to play together, RJ was trying to adjust and adapt around both of them, etc. So I’d expect a meaningfully better record after our first 10-20 games than we had last season, assuming comparable schedule difficulty. Beyond that, look for us to be less variable (e.g., less hot and cold play, fewer fallow periods, etc) on offense and slightly better (although possibly slightly more risk-taking) on D.
Free Prediction (worth what you pay for it:) I’m also looking for improvement, especially from QG. If things play out the way I think they should, he could well be among the top5 MIP candidates at the end of the season. A very optimistic projection of his stats based on my wishful thinking ... I mean instinct, eyeballed regressions and insight... is 18p/4.5r/5a at roughly 30 mins/game.