Everything Old is New Again
Derrick Rose is back. Here's what it means, why the Knicks felt they had to do this now, who they almost dealt, and what happens from here.
Lots to get to today, including extended thoughts on the Derrick Rose trade, the biggest questions raised by the move, what I heard over the weekend about the deal, and a recap of the Portland and Miami games, but first a reminder: if you’re not a full subscriber to this newsletter and want to become one, subscribe anytime this week to get 20% off:
Game 25: Knicks 103, Heat 109 - “A Perfectly Fine Loss”
⌚️TL;DW: This was a two-point game with under two minutes to go, and the Knicks certainly had their chances. It was a spirited, back and forth affair for most of the day, but in the end New York’s spry defense had a few too many late-clock breakdowns, while their offense got stuck in the mud on several key possessions late.
By losing, the Knicks continued an interesting trend. 49.4 percent of their shots came from deep, which was by far the highest all season and the 10th time that over 32.5 percent of their shots were 3-pointers. They’re 3-7 in those games, and lost yesterday despite making 16 of their 42 attempts. They just don’t have enough shooters to feel comfortable in these sorts of games.
❓❓❓ Substitution Questions: There were a few:
RJ Barrett sat for the last 17 minutes after going 1-for-6. Justifiable? Alec Burks came in with the Knicks down five in the 3rd quarter. He was 2-for-4 from that point forward, and was 3-of-6 from downtown on the afternoon. Thibs thought more spacing was the answer to Miami’s trapping, but RJ’s ability to penetrate the defense was clearly missing. It was a defensible judgment call.
Immanuel Qucikley taken out for Payton for a stretch in the middle of the fourth quarter. Justifiable? Quickley exited with the Knicks and Heat tied at 90, and when he came back in with just under four minutes to go, New York was down four. Payton took three shots in that time, missing two. He was 3-for-12 on the day, whereas Quick was 1-for-4, but he never once forced the issue and came up with the play of the day after he checked back in when the Knicks were dragging:
Far more than sitting Barrett, the decision to put Quickley on the bench for that stretch of time was costly.
After getting benched in the second half on Saturday, Austin Rivers remained in the rotation and played 17 minutes, going 2-for-5 but missing all three triples. Justifiable? It’s probably a moot point as Rivers is likely the odd man out of the rotation following the Rose trade, but Austin again gave Thibs very little for his continued faith.
📬 Obi Update: Until he really gets it going, we’re looking for signs. Juuuust signs.
We got a few on Sunday.
He also had a made three and a nice dunk on a backdoor cut that helped defeat Miami’s trap. He spoke over the weekend about how he’s still finding his offense, and it’s only been 15 games.
Even in that small sample size though, we continue to get signs that he’s going to be more than just a dunker. This attempted pass to Mitch down low didn’t end up turning into a bucket, but you can tell from the coaching staff’s reaction afterwards how much the liked the intent:
Given the bits and pieces we’re getting, it’s not time to worry about Obi just yet.
Game 24: Knicks 110, Portland 99 - “Respect Our Ugly”
⌚️TL;DW: After giving up 31 in the first quarter, the Knicks held the sixth best offense in the NBA to just 68 points over the final three quarters. The defense once again looked legit. This seemed like it wouldn’t be close down the stretch after New York took a 15-point lead with under five minutes remaining, but a late 7-0 run by Portland that included several makable misses from downtown provided some unnecessary tension.
Elfrid Payton tied for the team lead in scoring with 22 points *cough* on 19 shots *cough*, and Randle was his usual stellar self (22, 11 & 4), but RJ Barrett was the story.
Barrett had an efficient 18 points, including 2-for-2 from long range, but it were his makes from inside the arc that were most impressive.
As teams continue to crowd the paint and dare RJ to make midrangers, these pull ups will be vital for his continued growth. He had three in total against Portland, including the above play where he stops on a dime and shows zero hesitation - something that has been an encouraging characteristic of his takes all year long, even amidst the struggles.
He also got to the rim a fair bit against the Blazers, including this conversion against everyone’s favorite orange traffic cone:
Even after a rough outing on Sunday (1-for-6 overall, although the lone make was a three, meaning Barrett is now 44.4 percent from downtown over his last 13 games) RJ’s growth is evident.
💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫
⭐️ RJ Barrett: Honorable mention to Alec Burks (7-of -15) and Reggie Bullock (9-of-18), both of whom had great weekends from deep, but Barrett gets this, first for his game on Saturday, but also for being the type of kid who won’t let yesterday’s benching deter him.
⭐️ ⭐️ Mitchell Robinson: Continues to have moments every game that show the type of defender he’s starting to become:
He’s starting to get the most out of those Mr. Fantastic arms on pick and roll coverage, forcing the pass here and then recovering in time to absolutely stonewall Bam Adebayo.
On the whole, Robinson continues to have a really nice year.
⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Julius Randle: Weekend totals: 48 points on 34 shots, 5-for-12 from deep, 9-of-12 from the line, 24 boards, 11 dimes, four turnovers. He continues to be New York’s bail-out guy in late clock situations and moments where it seems like the offense just can’t get anything going. He has made more difficult shots than everyone else on the Knicks combined, and his defense is that of a player fighting to make the team, which has set the tone from day one. Bam - an All-Defense level player - had few answers:
If he does not make the All-Star team (Vote!!!!!!) it will be a damn shame.
Rose Reunion: 5 Questions
There’s a lot to digest on the Rose trade, and it definitely has some big picture implications that I’ll get to in today’s column, but first some housekeeping:
What was the trade? New York gave up Dennis Smith Jr. and Charlotte’s second round pick this season (currently 40th, originally received in the Willy Hernangomez trade).
It’s sad but fitting that DSJ is little more than an afterthought today. It seemed like the Knicks wanted to give him a legitimate chance to earn a rotation spot in the preseason, but his offensive performance was just so uneven that they couldn’t justify it. With the 2020-21 campaign already a wash in Detroit, maybe he gets some low stakes minutes to try and earn a second NBA contract.
As for the pick, no draft selection is ever expendable, but this was close considering the Knicks have three other choices, all of which will be better than this one. Speaking of which…
What did Detroit really want? Kevin Knox, according to one source. Ian Begley reported yesterday that the Knicks were unwilling to include him in this deal, but his inclusion was certainly discussed. I get the sense they’re saving him for a bigger fish.
It was also reported that Detroit wanted its own 2021 second round pick back, so good job by Leon Rose keeping that out of the deal. D.Rose would not have been worth it.
Lastly, I’m told the Pistons could have had Frank Ntilikina instead of Dennis Smith Jr if they wanted him. They didn’t.
Why Rose, and why now? Those answers are intertwined: they moved on Rose because they could have him now.
According to a source with knowledge of the Knicks thinking, New York was set on upgrading at point guard before the deadline (duh), but there was enough uncertainty regarding who would be available, when they’d become available, and what they’d cost to make the Rose acquisition easier.
What about the money? Rose makes almost exactly $2 million more than DSJ, so the Knicks cap space will go down that much, to $15 million.
One note: because Rose was acquired using cap space, his salary can be combined with other players in another trade before the deadline (h/t Bobby Marks)
What’s next? The immediate question is about the rotation, where Marc Berman has already indicated that Austin Rivers might be out, and Woj noting that “Rivers is likely to become a player that contenders seek in trade talks.”
Speaking of trades, Ian Begley reported that at least one playoff contender has called about the availability of Elfrid Payton, although its worth remembering that he has a de facto no trade clause by virtue of how the Knicks re-signed him. Between Frank, Knox, Payton and Rivers, I’d put the O/U on how many of those four are here after the deadline at 1.5.
Looking even further ahead, Begley already posited that New York will likely look to re-sign Rose in the offseason. Given the market, it would seem like something in the $5-6 million annual range is appropriate.
For right now though, I’m betting Elf stays as the starter, and we see a backup five of Rose, Quickley, Burks, Toppin and Noel.
Oh, and all the larger questions this trade raises, especially in the context of this unexpectedly competitive season? Why I’m glad you asked…
A Matter of Trust
Have you ever done one of those “trust exercises” where you have to fall backwards and have faith that your co-workers will catch you before you hit the ground?
I never have, thankfully. Even pre-pandemic, I didn’t like people touching me. I’d have just as soon fallen on my ass.
That said, I’m an inherently trusting person. Maybe it’s the lawyer in me sticking with the whole “innocent until proven guilty” thing, but whatever it is, until you violate my trust, I will always give you the benefit of the doubt.
It’s for that reason that one day after the Knicks reportedly acquired old frienemy Derrick Rose, my response is simple: OK. Fine. We’ll see how it goes.
No hand-wringing. No pearl-clutching. Just anticipation about how he might be able to help this team stay competitive.
If that view seems short-sighted, it’s probably because I’ve placed my trust in this front office, and by extension, this coach. Because I have, I’m viewing this trade through the same prism I would if any other team had made the deal - and based off the reporting, several more certainly tried.
That says to me that despite his woeful shooting numbers around the rim and perpetually subpar defense, league-wide opinion of Rose is still on the high side.
Assuming the rim numbers are mostly small-sample size theater and he continues playing against backups who can’t exploit his 32-year-old body too badly, that view probably isn’t unwise. Rose still averages nearly 20 drives per 36 minutes, on par with the league’s leaders, and his 11.2 assist rate on those forays into the paint ranks 19th out of 50 players averaging at least 10 drives per game.
Inserted into a Knicks offense that yet again stagnated - this time to the tune of 44 second half points versus Miami - that sort of thing may come in handy.
Even if it does, because I’m so full of faith, I trust that the head coach - despite his known affinity for Rose - won’t become overly reliant on his new old toy to the detriment of Immanuel Quickley, who has shown enough to warrant significant minutes moving forward.
I also trust that, should the Rose experiment not pan out, either the coach or the front office will pull the plug in a timely fashion. More generally, I trust that a front office which has yet to make a significant misstep knows what its doing and that the head coach sees the bigger picture.
But inherent in that belief, I’ll also have to trust that this process may not play out as I, or anyone, wants it to. In fact, I’m quite certain that there will be nights where 32-year-old Rose plays twice the minutes as the 21-year-old Quickley, or closes out games while the rookie looks on from the bench. This is a head coach who believes in winning above all. He thinks that the best development comes in environments where the games have meaning, and that the only way to engender accountability it to play the most deserving players.
That snickering you hear is from anyone who has had to watch Elfrid Payton play this season. In a sense, this trade is an acknowledgement that the people running this team see the same thing as us. Even if, as we expect, Austin Rivers will be the odd one out of this rotation, Rose’s arrival means that the leash on Payton just got a little shorter.
It also seems like a sign that their ideal role for Immanuel Quickley is - at this point at least - not at point guard, but alongside a primary ball-handler who can help guide the offense while he continues to adjust to the pro game.
Will this be a case of less is more? Or, as is so often the case around here, less is less?
That’s one of many questions that will remain unanswered until we see how this thing plays out. In all likelihood, we won’t be able to judge this regime’s approach to development - one that saw RJ Barrett glued to the bench for the entire fourth quarter yesterday - until at least next year.
For right now though, the fears that many fans expressed upon the hiring of Tom Thibodeau were realized just a little bit more when this trade was announced.
Vets are already carrying heavy loads. Knox is buried. Toppin makes mere cameos. IQ seems to be judged more harshly than his starting counterpart. And now Rose joins the party.
But then again, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson continue to show significant growth. Julius Randle has gone from inconvenient cap clogger to potential cornerstone. And Quickley is on track to make the All-Rookie First Team.
So its a mixed bag, at the very least. The same can be said of Thibodeau’s rotation and substitutions. Right now they have an 11-14 record, good enough for 8th in the East. That means that whatever questions have been asked are drowned out as the Knicks continue to play more competitive ball than anyone would have thought. Their sixth ranked defense remains a minor miracle.
But this trade will amplify those queries even more. The Knicks are toeing a thin line, trying to change the culture through winning while preparing for a future that they may be putting at risk in the process.
Will they get their cake and be able to eat it too? Or be left hungry as usual?
I trust we’ll find out soon enough.
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe for free to JB’s Metropolitan. See everyone tomorrow! #BlackLivesMatter
People complaining about Rose make me sick. If there is anything the FO can do to IMPROVE the team, I want them to do it !!! This IMPROVED the dam team
Trading for Rose will be acceptable if he's traded in short order.
If he's resigned the new front office is joke, no longer has any credibility and just isn't worth any more time.
It's sad that Knicks fans are left to dream about mortgaging the future for the possibility of a 9th or 10th seed being added.
An eternal rebuild gets cashed out months before a historic draft & in a season with no fans for Derrick fuckin Rose. It's a joke. A bad and insulting joke after crapping the bed here last time and then spitting in our face.
Thibs is a joke & sadly has gotten full faith because he's the first one the owner will allow to hold the players accountable & because the short offseason and his self centered coaching style means the Knicks can get a handful of early wins based on effort and burning out our best players. The idea that a team so desperate for shooting brings in someone who can't shoot to block rookie who can is basketballs version of trickle down economics. It doesn't work and at best it's pissing on our heads. It makes me sick.