Final Finals Thoughts

Before we move on to the offseason, let's take one last look at what we learned from this season's final results.

Good morning! Here’s hoping all the folks in Denver are still flying high. I dare to dream what that might feel like….

Final Finals Thoughts

Before we move on from the 2022-23 season for good, I want to spend one more day analyzing what we just saw, and considering the lessons learned about where the league is at and where it might be going.

Not that it’ll be easy. Forget trying to replicate the formula of teams that win it all; merely trying to understanding what makes them tick often seems like a fool’s errand. After all, the champ is almost always inextricably tied to the best player, and more often than not, that player will possess an irreplicable skill set. Whether it’s Steph Curry, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or in this case, Nikola Jokic, all of these guys are one of one.

But even if it may not behoove teams to scour the globe for another player who blends Dirk’s shooting, Magic’s passing and Shaq’s post game, Denver’s title run does provide some additional evidence about what you need to do to win it all, starting with which side of the ball matters more.

This is the 27th year that the NBA has been tracking advanced statistics for overall offense and defense. Over the first 19 of those years, from the 1996-97 season until 2014-15, there were only five teams that won the title without sporting a top-five defensive unit:

• The 2012-13 Heat, who finished 9th

• The 2008-09 Lakers, who finished 6th

• The 2005-06 Heat, who finished 10th

• The 2001-02 Lakers, who finished 7th

• The 2000-01 Lakers, who finished 22nd

Notably, three of these teams - the ‘12-13 Heat and the ‘00-01 & ‘01-02 Lakers - were repeat champs, having hoisted the Larry O’Brien trophy one year earlier as well. During those initial championship seasons, they ranked 1st and 4th in defensive rating, respectively. In short, the Shaq & Kobe Lakers and the LeBron & Wade Heat knew they had the ability to dial it up on D when it mattered.

My how times have changed - not in the sense that a great defense can’t lead you to a title¹, but in it being a prerequisite to winning it all. With Denver’s victory, this marks the fourth time in the last eight years that an NBA champ ranked 9th or lower in overall defense during the regular season. The Nuggets joined the 2021 Bucks (9th in defense), the 2018 Warriors (11th) and the 2016 Cavs (10th) in this group². Moreover, they had the second-lowest ranked defense of any champ in the 27 years on record, coming in 15th place with a 113.5 defensive rating³.

Naturally, there is a flip side to this coin. Starting with the 2012-13 season - the year Steph Curry introduced himself to a national audience with his first playoff run, perhaps not coincidentally - the league began to shift more towards elite offense as a necessary component to ultimate success.

In the first 16 years that offensive ratings were recorded, only five eventual champions finished in the top five in overall regular season offense. Some of the lower scoring teams to get a parade in their honor over that time:

• The ‘98 Bulls, who ranked 8th in offense

• The ‘99 Spurs, who ranked 10th

• The ‘03 Spurs, who ranked 8th

• The ‘04 Pistons, who ranked 19th - the lowest of any team recorded

• The ‘05 Spurs, who ranked 8th

• The ‘08 Celtics, who ranked 11th

• The ‘10 Lakers, who ranked 11th

• The ‘11 Mavs, who ranked 9th

Over the last 11 years though, only two NBA champions ranked outside the top five in offense during the regular season: the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers, who ranked 11th, and the 2022 Golden State Warriors, who ranked 16th⁴.

Like the exceptions to the top-five defense requirement from ‘97 to ‘15, these teams also come with a caveat in that each was led by one of the defining offensive forces of the last two decades. Sure enough, both the ‘20 Lakers and ‘22 Warriors ratcheted up their offenses significantly in the playoffs, when usually, the opposite happens.

So yes, the evidence confirms that these days, offense, more than defense, wins championships. Tell us something we don’t know.

What about how these great offenses are doing their thing though? To this end, I found one statistic particularly interesting. In the 20 seasons from 1997 to 2016, only seven teams managed to finish the postseason with an assist to turnover ratio over 2.0. Of those seven, only two were able to carry that ratio out of the first round: the Steve Nash-led Suns in 2006 and the Chris Paul-led Hornets in 2008.

But in the last seven seasons, 13 teams finished the playoffs with an AST:TO ratio over 2.0, including four this season. Not only is that the most in any single postseason in the database, but all four teams had significant success: the champion Nuggets, the runner-up Heat, and the last two West teams on Denver’s road to the title, the Suns and Lakers. Just missing the cut were conference semifinalist Golden State with a ratio of 1.96 and conference finalist Boston with a ratio of 1.95.