Friday Mailbag

Plus, a look ahead to New York's back to back weekend games.

Good morning! Before we get to today’s mailbag, a reminder that this is the last day of complementary newsletters for all partial subscribers. If you enjoyed the feeling of getting KFS delivered to your inbox every morning and not just on Monday, consider becoming a full subscriber. If you sign up month to month, it’ll cost you less than the price of a fancy cup of coffee.

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Game Night(s)

TONIGHT: Knicks at Hawks

TOMORROW: Knicks at Pelicans

When: tonight, 7:30 pm, MSG; tomorrow, 7 pm, MSG & NBA TV

Halftime Zoom: I’ll be on tonight but not tomorrow. Should be able to take some comments. Here’s the link.

What to watch for: Can the Knicks avoid a doomsday start?

I know, I know…this isn’t football, when an 0-3 start is all but a death knell to a team’s playoff chances. You have to play nearly five NBA games to get the equivalent of one NFL game, and we saw with the Lakers just last season that a team with a strong infrastructure can overcome a deep hole (LA started 2-10 in case you forgot).

All that being said, it would behoove the Knicks to pick up a W in at least one of these. Looking for soft spots in an NBA schedule nowadays is like digging through a pile of unripe avocados at the supermarket. You can poke and prod and convince yourself that a few might be winners, but the reality is that there are very few easy ones.

The Knicks did not bring their best on opening night and still nearly came away with a victory, so hopefully they can solve some of the issues that plagued them. Trae Young went 4-for-19 in Atlanta’s close opening loss in Charlotte but still scored 23 thanks to 15 trips to the line. The Hawks’ reserves were also terrific, albeit against a Hornets bench that is one of the league’s weakest. As always, it should be an interesting matchup.

As for Saturday, Zion is healthy, which historically has translated to a very tough job for Pels’ opponents. How the Knicks handle him might be the most interesting question of the weekend.

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 The official NBA Referees Twitter account admitted yesterday that they screwed up the Brunson flopping call from Wednesday night. According to them, because Brunson landed on Tatum’s foot, it should have been reviewed for a flagrant, and it wasn’t a flop.

In addition to that, the last two minutes report stated that the refs missed two additional calls that both went in Boston’s favor.

So that’s all lovely.

🏀 James Harden went to board the team plane for the Sixers’ flight for last night’s Bucks game, but according to Chris Haynes, was told to turn around and go home. Apparently Philly’s “suggestion” that Harden stay in Philly while his team opened their season on the road was more like a mandate.

Certainly this will end well for all parties.

📬 Friday Mailbag 📬

Hi friends. As fate would have it, the Knicks only play one Thursday game before January 11, so welcome to a new Newsletter segment that will be a staple for at least the next 10 weeks: the Friday mailbag.

Every Thursday morning, I’ll send out a call for questions on the Substack chat app, where full subscribers can pester me with anything that’s on their mind. The goal here will be a bit different from past “Ask Macri” segments, where I usually dive deep on one or two questions. Instead, I’d like to hit as many as possible with shorter (but still insightful) answers.

Without further ado…

🏀 Neil Ascher asks… Hi Jon, I think the free throw issue is a bigger problem than you do (probably). Rather than looking at the team’s overall % for last season, I’d like to know how they shot in games they lost by 5 points or less last year.

In order from the beginning of the season to the end:

• Game 1, MEM 115, NYK 112 - 15 for 18, 83 %

• Game 19, POR 132, NYK 129 - 24 for 28, 86 %

• Game 20, MEM 127, NYK 123 - 25 for 30, 83 %

• Game 33, CHI 118, NYK 117 - 15 for 26, 58 %

• Game 35, DAL 126, NYK 121 - 15 for 24, 63 %

• Game 41, MIL 111, NYK 107 - 20 for 22, 91 %

• Game 45, TOR 123, NYK 121 - 28 for 35, 80 %

• Game 68, SAC 122, NYK 117 - 20 for 31, 65 %

• Game 75, ORL 111, NYK 106 - 20 for 26, 77 %

• Game 82, IND 141, NYK 136 - 17 for 22, 77 %

Looking at this list, we see arguably the two most improbable losses of the season: the Bulls and Mavs games within five days of one another. The Chicago loss famously featured Quentin Grimes and Jalen Brunson missing pairs of free throws in the final minutes, and is the most obvious “free throw loss” of the year. Their free throw struggles in the Dallas game get overshadowed by the overall improbability of the closing minute of regulation, but its worth noting that Deuce McBride hit 5-of-6 from the charity stripe in the pressure-packed final 33 seconds. The Kings game is the only other loss that we can really pin on free throw woes.

So not all that many.

🏀 CT Pittman asks… I was at the game and clearly the best players on the floor last night were RJ, Quickley and Grimes. I have concerns about the bench depth and production. What are your thoughts on that?

I think you’re talking about two different things. The bench depth should be one of their strengths, if not an advantage they have over nearly every team in the league. Deuce McBride is arguably a top-five player not currently in an NBA rotation, and Jericho Sims has already proven to be serviceable as a backup big. His utility decreases a tad at the four, but the team stayed above water with that alignment for over a month last season.

Bench production is a slightly different animal. I take this to mean “how does the offense function when Jalen Brunson isn’t on the court.” If IQ and RJ are going to play like they did on opening night, this isn’t going to be a concern at all.

And yet, even in a game where they were the two best Knicks, there was still a stretch in the first half where the offense looked pretty clunky after Jalen and Julius left the court. It happens. On the whole, I feel confident that the bench production will be a strength for this team, especially taken in context of their defense, which should once again be excellent.

🏀 Chris Carter asks… Game 1 overreactions: if I set the line at 1.5 all stars for the Knicks this year are you going over or under?

I’m going under, but it’s not because of this game. Looking at the East, sitting here today, there are no less than 30 players for whom I can imagine a credible scenario in which they make the All-Star team. New York being good will help their case for getting two guys in the game, but I’m banking on the Bucks and Celtics getting two each automatically.

Will the Knicks really be so good that coaches will be comfortable taking just six players from the remaining 12 teams? Easy under for me.

🏀 Mike Pressman asks… I do have a question. Now that the window has closed on IQ signing, is there anyway that they can sign him before he declares for free agency and before the trade deadline or what is the timing to see if we can keep him. I can't help myself on this one.

They can’t extend him at any point this season, but the new CBA tweaked the old rules which said that you couldn’t negotiate with any free agents, including your own FA’s, until July 1 (or whenever the new league year starts). Now, teams can begin negotiating with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals is over.

The reality, I’d expect, is that this won’t make much of a difference for Quickley. His camp has already come this far, and they’ll want to see what money exists on the open market before signing on the dotted line in New York.

🏀 KW asks… Have a question…if you had to trade one player from the 9 players that played on opening night, who would you trade and for whom (1:1) to maximize this rotation?

One game and already trade questions! C’mon guys!!!

I kid, I kid…thanks for the question KW. If we’re talking any trade, realistic or unrealistic, sign me up for Donte DiVincenzo in exchange for Victor Wembanyama, please and thank you. If we’re talking something that is at least within the bounds of might-maybe-could happen, I’d probably swap out RJ for a player whose skill set is a little more suited to having the ball less (better shooting and defense, less creation). Cam Johnson maybe? He’d also help as a bigger option for the backup four (while also obviously serving as the starting three).

Even so, I don’t think I’d do that trade if I’m the Knicks. I’m lower on RJ than most, but even I acknowledge that there’s still a ceiling there worth investing in (and one a guy like Cam or other similar 3 & D wings don’t possess).

Instead of a one-for-one trade, the far more obvious move - aside from nabbing a superstar - is a consolidation trade that brings aboard a slightly less than All-Star level player.

🏀 Dave G asks… Here's one Jon. Is there anyone out there that can play the five and shoot the ball from the foul line in (or, God forbid, from 3) that might be available for trade? I'm dying for a Brook Lopez type on this team.

Not one that’s worth upsetting the apple cart for. You can probably go out and get someone like Chris Boucher, who was out of Toronto’s rotation in the season opener, but I’m not sure what that really does for you. Boucher or someone at that level certainly isn’t worth giving up what Mitch brings to the team, and while it’s easy to overlook Hartenstein, he’s as good a backup as there is.

🏀 Roy Ray asks… Why is IQ, who is our best free shooter, ignored to shoot technicals?

One of life’s great mysteries, Roy. Fred Katz dug into this a bit last season and if I recall correctly, the end result was that there wasn’t much rhyme or reason to who shot them. I’ll follow up with him next time he’s on the pod.

🏀 Eddy asks… Jon, do you think moving Grimes to the bench in place of IQ would unleash him/allow him to have more opportunities with the ball in his hand? For everything that is made of starting two small guards, IQ next to Brunson looked really good in stretches last night. My one concern is that IQs touches would get limited as well by playing with the mid-3.

You nailed the biggest reason why (in my opinion, at least) they keep IQ coming off the bench. This isn’t the playoffs, where teams will relentlessly hunt mismatches and will try to bully a team starting two small guards, even if one is as relatively strong defensively as Quickley. This has far more to do with spreading out the minutes of the most ball-dominant players on the team.

As Dr. Gadepalli brought up in the chat, the numbers with Brunson and Quick together are undeniable. They were gangbusters in nearly 1000 minutes last season, outscoring teams by 8.5 points per 100 possessions (+12.1 via Cleaning the Glass) through sturdy units at both ends of the court. You could argue that Brunson + Quickley + [name any three Knicks] is New York’s version of the death lineup given how good they were last season in any alignment that didn’t feature Jericho Sims as the starting center:

The “only one ball” problem is one we’ve discussed with New York’s starters even without considering Quick. Starting him for Grimes might exacerbate that issue, and while Grimes off the bench would theoretically get him a few more shots, I’m not sure if the trade off is worth it. His spacing if vital to the starting five. More importantly, at least where this question is concerned, is that there’s still more meat on the bone for Grimes as is, as Benjy details in this film clip from Wednesday.

🏀 Rob Neagle asks… Is there any chance that Randle falls into the same tier as the rest of the rotation (minus Brunson) where his playing time in the last 5 minutes is based on how he performs in that game?

Given how important his size is on the boards, I doubt it. He’s also a guy who has made two of the last three All-NBA teams. I know we don’t always think of Randle as a star, but his resume dictates that he should be a near automatic insertion into any closing lineup.

🏀 Dbn123 asks… I’ve got a question JM. How long do you think the Knicks will be satisfied at being semi-mediocre while chasing their unicorn before they realize it could take a decade or more to find “the guy?” What’s the back up plan Jonathan?

Disagree with the way this question is proffered, counselor (cue anyone who went to law school recalling why you can’t ask “when did you stop beating your wife?” to a witness). They aren’t satisfied with their current state, and for that reason, have been in on basically every star that has come on the market. But those opportunities have been imperfect or unavailable for one reason or another, and they have the luxury of time, even if some may be growing impatient. Eventually - likely in the next two years - the salary cap will dictate that they have to make some sort of “all in”-ish move, but there’s no reason to disagree with their approach thus far.

🏀 KW with another one…. Putting Wednesday night aside, say Randle has another all- NBA season, would you max extend him ? He is such a maddening player.

This inspired a lot of discussion in the chat yesterday about extension logistics for someone in Randle’s position, and its a topic I’ll dive deeper on at some point. For right now, I’ll point out that there are a few ways to extend Julius for multiple years after this season, and the annual salary for any of those options can start north of $40 million. Based on a number of factors that I’ll get into at a later date, I’d exercise extreme caution in any potential extension negotiations if I were Leon Rose. That’s not to say that I wouldn’t extend Julius or even that I wouldn’t give him a slight raise, but this is one situation where flexibility seems more beneficial than not, and nothing short of a relative bargain would get me to add more years to the current pact.

🏀 Tyler asks…Are we expecting too much out of Brunson and Randle? Not going to overreact after game 1 against a tough opponent, but Brunson didn’t exactly look great in the pre-season either. I guess my point is both were incredible and very consistent last season, and both made a lot of tough shots. Everyone made the assumption that Brunson would get better this season, but I actually am not expecting him to be able to duplicate what he did last year.

I don’t think we’re expecting too much. As you say, both guys played at an All-Star level last season, but given their pedigree and career progression to that point, I don’t consider either to be an outlier performance. Both players have been making tough shots for basically their entire careers. They each have faults that have been well-documented, but being able to thrive as shot-makers in the right situation isn’t one of them.

🏀 Earnest Monk asks…do you think Thibs has earned an extension or does he need to get to a certain point this season with this roster?

I’d give him the extension now, but I’m also biased because I love the dude. I also don’t think its necessary to extend him at the moment. There’s no lame duck cloud hanging over the locker room, and it’s not like the players doubt whether he has the full trust of the front office. I also wouldn’t make the decision to extend him based on how far they get in the playoffs or what their final win total is. He’s brought them pretty far from where they were when he took over. Can he be the guy to get them to that next step, assuming the top end talent is upgraded even more? The answer to that question will (and should) determine his fate.

One more….

🏀 Dylan asks… We've all seen RJ have great games in a Knicks uniforms. What I want to see is him put weeks of games together where he is consistently playing good on D, shooting league average or better from 3, and making good sharp decisions with the ball. Jon, what do you think the ceiling of this team is if he makes that leap?

Thanks Dylan. The player you’re describing sounds like a borderline All-Star, assuming RJ does all of the above with roughly the same usage rate as he has now. As a result, I do think it changes the ceiling of this team, but maybe not for the reason you think.

The version of the Knicks with the version of RJ you’re describing can probably win a few playoff rounds, and if everything broke right, maybe even push an elite team in the conference finals. Then again, I kinda think that’s the same ceiling they have right now.

The reason this version of RJ changes their ceiling is because it gives them a true blue trade chip to headline a package this summer or beyond. Daryl Morey may loath the idea of sending Joel Embiid up I-95, but if the big dude asks out and he has a chance to pair Tyrese Maxey with a fellow under-25 guy with tangible All-Star upside, plus the bundle of picks that would surely be in that deal, it’s a much easier sell.

Not sure if that’s what you were going for with your question, but that’s the best I got.

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions, and if I didn’t get to yours, I’ll try my best to get to it next time.

Have a great weekend everyone!

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”