Homecoming

Let's take one more look back at an emotional Saturday night.

Good morning! I hope everyone enjoyed yesterday’s bonus newsletter. This weekend certainly deserved one.

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Game 43: Knicks 126, Raptors 100

In a New York minute…

On a night you could easily novelize given all the storylines, we saw strong basketball from both teams right out of the gate. From there, some spirited Toronto defense and a healthy dose of Knicks sloppiness resulted in a 13-0 Raptors run. New York’s hot shooting allowed them to tie the game after one, but more turnover issues made this a 4-point game after two.

Out of halftime, the Knicks began to flex their muscles on both ends, getting out to a 20-point lead before the end of the third. Toronto had a brief push to end the quarter, but New York was always in full control. Jalen Brunson and Precious Achiuwa (you read that correctly) put on a show in the fourth quarter, and this one ended with several minutes of garbage time.

Three Things

1. Family first. There are certain sports moments where you know well before they start that you’ll remember them for the rest of your life.

Saturday night was one of them.

Right off the bat, the game lived up to the hype. From the pregame intros to Immanuel Quickley dancing & prancing after scoring Toronto’s first points (off an RJ Barrett assist, no less)…

…to Barrett himself taking a charge from the man who replaced him in the lineup, and then following that up with a driving dunk along the baseline, the first few minutes had it all.

By halftime, it was impossible not to be impressed with both former Knicks. Barrett was opportunistic in transition and on his drives in the half court, and fittingly tied both Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle with an efficient 15 first half points. Meanwhile, Quickley was orchestrating the Raptors’ attack with the savvy of a 10-year vet, dishing eight assists with zero turnovers.

The second half was a different story, in part because the Knicks tightened things up on both ends, but also because the entire Toronto team seemed to experience a collective come down after rocketing out of the gates. It was impossible to watch Barrett miss five of his final six free throw attempts and not think the emotions of the evening got the better of him.

All in all though, everyone had reason to smile as the final buzzer sounded. As I wrote yesterday and as many have surmised over the last few weeks, this appears to be a trade with only winners and no losers. On that note…

2. Knicks are rolling. The back-to-back to end last week really threw me off my game, and I didn’t get a chance to do the 10-game temperature check I’d have liked. Oh well. Round numbers are over-rated.

So, a day late and a dollar short, here’s some data on where the Knicks stand after 11 games with OG Anunoby in the lineup, with comparisons (where appropriate) to the 31 games before he arrived¹.

• Offensive rating after trade: 117.2 (13th in the NBA)

• Offensive rating before trade: 117.0 (10th in the NBA)

• Defensive rating after trade: 103.5 (2nd in the NBA)

• Defensive rating before trade: 114.8 (15th in the NBA)

• Net rating after trade: + 13.6 (2nd in the NBA)

• Net rating before trade: + 2.2 (11th in the NBA)

• Starting 5 net rating after trade: + 19.3 (127.9 OFFRTG, 108.6 DEFRTG, 169 min.)

• Starting 5 net rating pre-trade (with DiVincenzo & I-Hart): - 10.4 (117.0 OFFRTG, 127.4 DEFRTG, 102 min.)

• OG Anunoby on / off differential, per CTG: + 39.7 (+ 10.9 OFF, - 28.8 DEF)

• RJ Barrett on / off differential, per CTG: - 7.8 (- 5.1 OFF, + 2.6 DEF)

• Jalen Brunson off-court net rating, pre-trade: +2.6 (107.1 OFF, 104.5 DEF, 384 min.)

• Jalen Brunson off-court net rtg, post-trade: -2.7 (100.7 OFF, 103.5 DEF. 124 min.)

Those last two stats are a reminder that it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. New York has struggled to generate a cohesive offense with Brunson off the court since Quickley and Barrett were sent north, although considering how often those minutes feel like pulling teeth, getting outscored by only 2.7 points per 100 possessions could be seen as a minor victory.

For the most part, the post-trade results have been a smashing hit, with other fun little nuggets to be found by digging a little deeper.

For example, in the 288 minutes Brunson and Anunoby have shared the court, the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 27.2 points per 100 possessions. Going into yesterday’s games, that was tops among the 121 two-man combos that have played at least 200 minutes together since January 1. Not bad.

Or how about this: in 170 minutes together, the wing combo of Josh Hart and OG have a positive 30.3 net rating, with a perfectly average 115.7 offensive rating and a “wait, is the other team only playing with four guys?” defensive rating of 85.3.

Collectively, they’re doing special things as well, like leading the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding since the trade. They’ve also jumped from 29th in assist rate to 20th - a significant improvement considering the sort of offense they run.

Some of these numbers are ridiculous, but they’re also coming at a cost. Since depleting their depth in the trade, three Knicks - OG, Jalen and Julius - are among the top 20 players in minutes per game. Isaiah Hartenstein was on track to make it four, but he left Saturday’s game early with an ankle injury.

From now on, any injuries that force a player to miss a game or games will be correlated with the amount of time they’re on the court. At the same time, we were reminded of why the starters are playing so much late in the third quarter against the Raptors, when Deuce McBride committed two unconscionable turnovers in the final minute of the third quarter.

Speaking of turnovers…

3. Giving it away. The Knicks led by two points at halftime, but it could have easily been a double digit advantage if they’d taken even moderately good care of the rock.

Instead, it was another first half where New York kicked the ball around like a grade school soccer team. They committed 13 first half turnovers which led directly to 21 Raptor points.

Things improved in the second half, with nine turnovers leading to eight Toronto points, but the sum total of 22 giveaways was still jarring, especially under a head coach who values possessions like air.

After making it to New Year’s Eve with a 13.4 turnover rate that had them in a 3-way tie for 13th in the league, the Knicks have given it away 16.4 percent of the time in the new year. Not only is that dead last in the league, but they’re a full percentage point below the 29th ranked Lakers.

The problem seems to be a lack of focus out of the gate:

• 1st Half Turnover Rate since January 1: 17.5 percent

• 2nd Half Turnover Rate since January 1: 15.2 percent

It seems to be a team-wide issue, perhaps a result of adjusting to a changed roster, or maybe because they’re making an overt effort to share the ball more. They’re also getting their centers more involved in the offense. That has its benefits, but Hartenstein and Achiuwa both sport a turnover rate above 17 percent.

Hopefully familiarity breeds more precision as the season moves along.

Play of the Day

Here’s one of several plays from Saturday night that left me far more understanding of the high turnover numbers than I have any right to be:

We know what the Knicks want to do offense. It would probably be fine with them to walk the ball up the court on every possession, cross the half court line with 16 on the clock, run a pick and roll, iso, and have one of their creators either shoot or kick it out.

To their credit, they’re damn effective when they do exactly this. But it also gets bland, and worse, predictable.

It’s why possessions like the one above are such a positive sign for this offense. The baseline pass from Brunson to OG in the opposite corner is dangerous, but also shows an immense amount of skill. As Ian Begley noted over the weekend, Jalen’s assist numbers have skyrocketed since the trade.

For as incredible as his shooting has been this season, JB’s continued progression as a passer might be equally important when all is said and done.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Julius Randle: One of the most difficult decisions of the season. Donte DiVincenzo (17 points on 7-of-12 shooting) was an afterthought but he was his usual stellar self. He could easily have been here. Ditto for OG Anunoby (14 & 7, three blocks), who I already find myself taking for granted. His nightly presence on defense is neck and neck with Brunson’s scoring for most consistent trait of any player on the team.

This silky smooth move also raised some eyebrows:

But the guy who really has an argument is Precious Achiuwa. He played 25 minutes due to Isaiah Hartenstein’s ankle injury, including the entire fourth quarter in which he went 7-for-7 from the field and grabbed seven boards. His final line - 18 & 11 on 9-of-10 shooting - was his best of the season, even going back to the 25 games he played as a Raptor. As far as “Welcome to NY” moments go, it was up there.

For as good as Achiuwa was though, this has to go to Randle.

This was one of Randle’s 10 assists, which he added to 18 points and 16 boards for his first triple double of the season.

It wasn’t all pretty. Julius was in the running for a quadruple double with seven turnovers, as Toronto’s swarming defense occasionally got the better of him. His turnover rate remains up a few percentage points from last season’s career low, but the ceiling on his passing has unquestionably risen.

Here was another play from the third quarter, after he grabbed an offensive rebound on an Anunoby missed three:

Patience is the ultimate two-way street for Randle. Wait too long, and he risks missing a rogue hand swiping at the ball while he’s looking for an outlet.

But plays like this are a reminder that Julius can use his unique gravity on offense to bend a defense in ways few can. At 6'8", he can still see above many defenders that traditional point guards cannot, and goodness knows he has the strength to deliver a pass on time and on target.

Very encouraging night for (hopefully) one of New York’s two 2024 All-Stars.

⭐️ ⭐️ Josh Hart: You wouldn’t know it from the final score, but the Knicks were down by 11 midway through the first quarter. That’s when Josh Hart checked into the game.

12 minutes later, Hart checked out with his team leading by three. He scored eight points, pulled down four rebounds and blocked a shot during his first half stint, but as usual, his impact wasn’t defined by the numbers. The energy of the game completely changed when Hart checked in. Compare that to the Wizards game, when no Hart meant no spark, and a far more difficult win than it should have been.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson: Allow me to set the scene…

Fourth quarter, just under three minutes remaining. The Knicks are up by a million, and the subs have arrived to the scorer’s table. After this possession, New York will foul to get the starters out of the game.

Jalen Brunson is sitting on 38 points two nights after he put up 41 against the Wizards. “Consecutive 40-point games” would be such an easy little thing for ESPN to run on their ticker, and the timing couldn’t be better with the final decision on All-Star starters coming down this week. Scoring 40 in consecutive games also isn’t something Brunson has ever done before, and may not be something he’ll get a chance to do again anytime soon.

So of course, after roasting the Raps for seven consecutive points to get to the precipice of 40, on what he knows will be his last possession of the game, Jalen Brunson does this:

If there was ever any question about where Brunson’s priorities are, let this leave no doubt.

He is about one thing and one thing only: winning. It’s why he’s the league-leader in charges despite often being the smallest guy on the court. It’s why he works so hard to improve the parts of his game that will translate directly to more victories for his team (he was 7th in the NBA in pull-up threes heading into yesterday, with a better shooting percentage than everyone else in the top 10). It’s why he’s the most important Knick since Patrick Ewing.

It’s why he is Him.

(Did I do that right? I’m so old…)

Tip-Ins…

🏀 No word on whether the ankle injury that knocked I-Hart out in the third will prevent him from missing tomorrow night’s game in Brooklyn. As a reminder, Hartenstein has yet to miss a game as a Knick.

Before he left, he had the defensive play of the night:

🏀 Perhaps the trade rumors are impacting Quentin Grimes’ shooting stroke. After a 2-for-8 game, he is now four for his last 21 from the field. Even on an off night though, he was responsible for a nice possession in the fourth quarter that it would be great to see on a more consistent basis:

🏀 At one point during the third, the Knicks were out-rebounding the Raptors 40-14. The final margin was 61-31. It was not a fair fight.

🏀 Of court news & rumors: According to Ian Begley, Bruce Brown and Alec Burks “are 2 players squarely on New York’s radar.” After the game, Brown sold himself pretty hard as a perfect fit on a Thibs team. As for Jordan Clarkson, the price “has been very high, according to teams monitoring the situation.” Lastly, on Malcolm Brogdon, Ian hasn’t “haven't heard anything significant there.”

Up Next…

The Knicks head to their home away from home in Brooklyn tomorrow.

Final Thought

If you’re a Knicks fan, you had a great weekend.

If you’re an IQ or RJ fan, you had a great weekend.

If you’re in love with the OG Anunoby acquisition, you had a great weekend.

And if you’re Jalen Brunson, you had a really great weekend.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. I’m not including the Pacers game on December 30, as they had non of RJ, IQ, OG or Grimes for that game, which was also the second night of a back to back.