Is This The Real Life?
The Knicks are good. The question is, HOW good?
Good morning! Boy am I excited about today’s piece. I hope you enjoy as well.
🏙 Game Night 🏙
Who: Nets
Where: Brooklyn
When: 7:30 pm
TV: MSG
Weiss & Rosenbloom Personal Injury Report: Everyone is good to go for the Knicks. Ben Simmons is likely out for the Nets, which is great news for the Nets.
Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter.
🗣 News & Notes ✍️
🏀 New York made a roster move yesterday, signing guard Duane Washington Jr. to a two-way contract.
Washington Jr, who went undrafted out of Ohio State in 2021, is probably most memorable to Knicks fans for his performance as a Pacer in January of last year. In the game, DWJ played a then career-high 36 minutes en route to 17 points and nearly an upset victory. This season, Washington Jr appeared in 31 games for Phoenix, averaging eight points and two assists in 12.7 minutes. In short, he’s an undersized shooting guard who seems worth a flier based on the scoring ability he’s shown at the pro level.
Is This The Real Life?
Let’s get in the proper mood before today’s article…
Never a bad time for that one.
Anyway…on Tuesday night, after the Knicks polished off their sixth consecutive win and second straight victory over the league-leading Celtics, I found myself in an unfamiliar place.
I, the guy who used to go on postgame live streams with the giddiness of a kid on Christmas morning, was tempering expectations left and right. Rather than reveling in the vibes, I was pissing on everyone’s good time. We must keep expectations in check! I will not give in to reckless enthusiasm! To hell with the very essence of fandom…give me the harsh realities!!!
It was a strange position to be in, and one I didn’t quite enjoy. At the same time, my brain only works one way, and has been hard-wired by three decades of watching NBA basketball to accept certain truths as fact: Superstars win in the playoffs, and all things being equal, talent generally wins out.
Looking at the top of the East, it’s a murderer’s row of MVP candidates and All-NBA pedigree. And if we go down to the 4th place Cavs, all my statistical arguments fall apart because Cleveland is neck and neck with Boston for the best net rating in the whole damn league.
But the vibes…the vibes! Fred Katz put it succinctly in yesterday’s piece for The Athletic:
Before Monday’s game against the Celtics, a reporter asked Thibodeau what has stood out the most about Brunson’s impact during the point guard’s initial season in New York. Thibodeau spoke only about Brunson’s leadership by example. He said the point guard was in the Knicks’ practice facility shortly after he signed and kept showing up. Not long after, 10 other guys were there with him.
The Knicks have made a conscious decision to acquire people who fit into Thibodeau’s passionate personality.
Katz also pointed out that the Knicks are stocked with two-way players who amplify their top two guys, and added an anecdote about a text he received from the coach of an opposing team: “Knicks are legit…(they) play so hard.”
V.I.B.E.S.
(aka, the Very Incredible Benefits of Endorphins from Success™)
So what’s an analytical brain to do?
Research, of course.
At the moment, only three teams - the Celtics, Cavs and Sixers - check the two boxes that have traditionally defined contenders in most NBA seasons: being top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. There are exceptions to that rule, like the 2016-17 Cavs who would have won the title in a lot of seasons and lollygagged their way through the year with a 21st ranked defense before flipping the switch in the playoffs.
But those are the exceptions reserved for veteran-heavy groups that have been there and done that, not the rule. Maybe this season’s Bucks, with a 23rd ranked offense that has been without Khris Middleton for most of the season, will qualify. Maybe even the Warriors. We’ll see.
More often than not though, the regular season track record will tell you a lot. To that end, after Boston, Cleveland and Philly, there are two more teams who are right there, knocking on the door of the double-top-10, both of whom went into last night tied for the league’s 12th ranked defense: Denver, who has the second best offense in basketball, and New York, whose 115.9 offensive rating currently ranks 6th.
Call me crazy, but I’m not worried about the Knicks’ defense when push comes to shove, provided Mitchell Robinson is healthy and upright of course. In the 29 games between his two injury absences, the Knicks had the 7th ranked defense in the league with a 111.5 rating that was as close to 3rd place as it was to 9th in that time. If he is there, they will defend.
No, it’s the other side of the court that has me worried, which brings us back to how my brain has been trained: in the last five minutes of a playoff game, it turns into your best guy vs my best guy, and the Knicks aren’t likely to have the best guy in any series they’re involved in1.
They do have two very, very good top bananas though, although my issue isn’t really with them. Brunson and Randle are more than adept at kicking out to open shooters when that’s the correct play. If New York’s shooters can simply hit their open shots at the end of tight playoff games, this offense should be able to thrive.
Here’s the problem: they haven’t hit those shots. Or at least not enough of them to present themselves as a legitimate threat to win a playoff series come April.
New York currently ranks 23rd in the league in effective field goal percentage according to Cleaning the Glass. From the 2016 to the 2021 playoffs - six postseasons in total - not a single team that finished in the bottom 10 in eFG% won a playoff series. Here are the squads that made it and failed to get out of the first round, with their overall offensive rating rankings in parentheses:
2021: Knicks (24th in OFF RTG), Grizzlies (15th)
2020: Nets (22nd), Magic (21st)
2019: Pistons (21st), Thunder (16th)
2018: Spurs (17th), Blazers (15th)
2017: Bulls (20th), Grizzlies (19th), Thunder (16th)
2016: Grizzlies (16th), Pistons (12th), Celtics (11th)
Some of these teams were definitely lower rung playoff entrants, but there are some good squads in this group too. Both the 2018 Blazers and 2019 Thunder won 49 games. And yet, not only did zero teams from this list win a round, but none even got to a Game 7. Most were swept or lost in five games, including the 2021 Knicks.
That’s the bad news. Now for some good news: none of the above teams ranked in the top 10 in overall offense like New York currently does.
More good news: just last season, the Memphis Grizzlies won their first round matchup against the Wolves before pushing the eventual champion Warriors to six games despite not having Ja Morant for some of that series. The Grizz ranked 23rd in effective field goal percentage, just like this season’s Knicks, but withstood those shooting woes en route to the league’s 4th ranked offense.
How did they do it?
By dominating the league in offensive rebounds, ranking 1st in OREB% by a healthy margin, and…
By taking care of the ball, sporting the 9th lowest turnover rate in the NBA
Interestingly enough, Memphis didn’t grade that well on the third of the four offensive factors, free throw attempt rate, ranking just 22nd.
Besides the presence of Ja Morant, that’s arguably the biggest difference between the ‘21-22 Grizz and the ‘22-23 Knicks, who are 9th in the league in FT rate. They’re also 5th in turnover rate and 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage, a hair ahead of the aforementioned Grizzlies. New York is one of two teams, along with the Mavs, to rank in the top 10 in three of the four key offensive factors. Essentially, they have gotten around their shooting woes by being elite or near elite at every other component of NBA offense.
Is it enough to overcome the absence of an MVP candidate on their roster and win a tough playoff series? Say what you want about him, but Morant finished 7th in the voting last season and finished 6th in the most recent ESPN MVP straw poll.
This brings us to the last piece of good news, which is probably the best news of all: New York has a coach who knows a little bit about overcoming shooting woes and the absence of a true blue superstar.
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