King Me

Which team is most likely to trade for Julius Randle? The one we'll see in the Garden tonight.

Good Morning! Why is it a good morning? Because we are a mere 10 days away from the trade deadline, and with it (we hope), a conclusion to this season that we can all feel good about. Because right now, I mean…yeesh.

What needs to happen between now and February 10 will be the focus of this newsletter for the next 10 days, and we’ll start that process today. Before we get there though, if you’re not fully on board and want to become a full subscriber to this newsletter, here you go:

🏙 Game Night 🏀

Who: Kings at Knicks

When: 7:30

Where: MSG

Who’s out: De’Aaron Fox has missed the last four games and we have no word on whether he’ll be available for this one. Terence Davis is also out for the Kings. For the Knicks, everyone seems likely to be available again, and Tom Thibodeau already said he’s sticking with the same starting five. In more long term news, Derrick Rose said yesterday¹ that he plans to return very soon after the All-Star break. The first game is February 25.

Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter for all you night owls.

What to look for: What kind of reception does Julius Randle get at home? The fan base (at least the segment that’s active on Knicks Twitter) is in a lather over the former All-Star and there is now a very vocal contingent of folks who want him moved before the deadline. All eyes will be on his body language at home after some not-so-great moments in recent games/weeks/months.

Speaking of dealing Randle…

King Me

Waaaaaaay back in November, when this season started going sideways and the red “uh oh” flags began inching up the Julius Randle pole², I began to think to myself about possible Randle trade destinations.

At the time, I didn’t think there was any chance such a deal would happen unless a team vastly overpaid and made the Knicks an offer they couldn’t refuse. Now, with teams around the league inquiring about Randle, as I reported here last week, my guess is that opposing front offices are starting to wonder whether they can get the 2021 All-Star on the relative cheap.

And who can blame them. The team is bad, the vibe is bad, their place in the standings is bad, and with so many good to decent young players on the roster, there’s an easy pivot the organization can make…not into full-on tank mode, but in accepting that a Randle-centric core simply doesn’t warrant further exploration.

Not that it ever really required as much. We knew that a team with Julius as its best player had a defined ceiling, but the vibes were so good that most of us happily kicked that can down the road. He’ll be a great number two! Given a shooting regression this severe, that’s probably no longer true. More importantly though, all the good feelings from last season have evaporated, and there are reports of tension in the locker room³. Just based on the eye test, Randle looks like the guy least happy to be here, so why not get him out?

Knicks Unified @KnicksUnified

@deanjoannou Doesn’t want to be here

The ideal pivot, of course, is to deal Randle for a better star player. That deal doesn’t seem to be on the table at the moment. If the front office thinks there’s a chance something like that will be available in the summer - say, Randle and picks or a young player for a glitzier name - they’ll likely hang on to him regardless of what’s available at this deadline.

In the same vein, they’re not going to sell him for peanuts. Randle, for all his faults, is still an asset. He’s a highly imperfect asset - a big who doesn’t protect the rim and is once again a shooter opponents are happy to leave open - but he’s still an asset, especially on a team with a stretch five. On a contender, he could anchor bench units for 10 minutes a game, and be a release valve surrounded by better player(s) in the starting five. This would obviously require him embracing a different role, but on a team with title aspirations, he just might.

But it’s hard to imagine a contender giving up the assets New York would require to try and integrate a guy like Randle mid-season⁴, which brings me back to November, and the teams I first thought about when I contemplated a potential trade partner: Portland and Sacramento. Since then, the Blazers’ best player has gone down, and while they’ve actually played better in Dame’s absence, I have a hard time believing they’ll make a “win now” move for Randle.

Sacramento, on the other hand, has emerged even more for me as a possible partner. The Kings are perpetually desperate to break their playoff drought and this season is no different. Despite losing five in a row, Sac Town is just 3.5 games back of the 10th seed. Is that too far back to believe they have a shot? Perhaps, but in Randle, they’d also be trading for a player under contract for four more seasons, which to them is likely an added benefit.

There are no shortage of possible trade packages, including the off chance of a deal involving Fox, which I discussed in depth last week. But there are a number of reasons these two teams make for ideal partners. For one, Randle’s cap number is $21.78 million, and the Knicks will have an open roster spot once Ryan Arcidiacono’s 10-day expires. That means they can consummate a two-for-one, meaning the following combos are available:

• Buddy Hield, or Hield plus a player making less than $4.25 million

• Harrison Barnes, or Barnes plus a player making less than $7 million

• Any two of Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes or Tristan Thompson (all of whom make between $9.7 and $11.3 million)

The list of possible deals gets even longer when you consider the Knicks could send an additional player over in the trade. Kemba Walker, for example, makes $8.7 million. If paired with Randle, the Knicks could take back up to $38.2 million…in other words, Barnes or Hield plus one of the other three mid-level salaries). If you replace Walker with Rose or Fournier, they could take back Barnes and Hield.

Some of these names are likely to make most fans a bit queasy, and none are likely to get anyone particularly excited, but again, if the Knicks trade Randle now, their Q-rating won’t be going up. What almost certainly has to go up, and why Sacramento presents an interesting trade partner, is New York’s asset base.

If the Knicks make a deal now, they may wind up getting ancillary benefits like increasing team chemistry, upping the average effort level, giving RJ more on-ball reps, and seeing what they really have in Obi Toppin. They may even get a really helpful player like Barnes (someone I’d argue would be more coveted than Randle by most teams) or a shot in the dark like Bagley, or maybe even center stability in Holmes.

But the Knicks are not making this trade without a pick or a young prospect coming back in the deal. Who or what is that? Keep dreaming on Tyrese Haliburton, who isn’t happening. Davion Mitchell has had an underwhelming rookie season, is already 23 years old and is a 6'2" combo guard. I’m not sure he’s the prize the Knicks are looking for, especially with arguably a better version in Immanuel Quickley already on the roster.

That brings us to picks. Over the last 14 years, the Kings first round picks have landed at 4th, 5th, 7th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 6th, 8th, 5th, 2nd, 14th, 12th and 9th. In other words, a Kings first is one of the most valuable trade chips a team can have⁵. Is there any deal involving Randle that could get Sacramento to include either an unprotected first or an unprotected pick swap? How badly do the Kings want to unload Buddy Hield and the two fully guaranteed years on his contract that will pay him just over $40 million total? Would the Knicks sell that low on Randle, to the point of acquiring Hield and accepting just one pick, no matter how good? Or would they insist on at least getting back Barnes, who isn’t the shot creator Randle is but is good enough to play 25 minutes a night for any team in the NBA?

My gut feelings:

• Barnes would be a requirement in any deal. Casual fans may think about him as the 5th cog on the original Warriors title team and someone who’s been meandering on Dallas and Sacramento ever since, but Barnes is solid as a rock. He’s 29, has a few good years left, and over the last six years is good for 17.1 points, 5.5 boards and 2.1 assists per night. More importantly, he’s been steadily between 38 and 41 percent on around five attempts from deep for four seasons now, and while last season’s 56.7 percent shooting from 2-point range seems like an outlier, his overall points per shot attempt this season is in the 91st percentile league-wide for forwards⁶. It’s also not like Barnes can’t create for himself in a pinch if need be; a little less than a third of all his shots are unassisted, including about half of his attempts at the rim⁷.

• Davion Mitchell will not suffice as the extra asset. Mitchell may very well turn out to be a solid player, but the Knicks already have an undersized quasi-point guard in Immanuel Quickley who is nearly a year younger than the former Baylor standout.

• The Knicks will require a first rounder: The blueprint for this sort of trade was laid out verbatim in 2018, when the Clippers dealt the newly re-signed Blake Griffin to Detroit for Tobias Harris and 1st rounder in that upcoming draft, which turned out to be the 12th overall. Griffin had a far more established track record than Randle and was still performing at close to an All-Star level, but was a year older, more of an injury risk, and most importantly was signed to a full max contract. All in all, they are not dissimilar assets.

  The pick in that trade ended up being used to select Miles Bridges, who LA then flipped to Charlotte for SGA, who they then used as a centerpiece in the Paul George trade. Based on how the Knicks’ front office has operated, the guess here is that they’d strongly prefer a Kings pick that was a few years away and thus could be used in a star trade to be named later. I’d also assume Sacramento might want to get their obligation over with immediately, and prefer to convey something like a top-four protected 2022 selection instead.

• The Knicks will want Sacramento to take on a long-term contract. Well, “long term” in the sense that it isn’t expiring. Stay with me now…

  If you’ve been listening to the pod at all since the summer, you’ve heard Jeremy Cohen talk repeatedly about how the Knicks plan to operate as an over the cap team moving forward. This made sense for a variety of reasons, but if the Knicks are going to move Randle for Barnes (who makes about $8 million less next season), they’re suddenly not that far away from being able to operate with somewhat significant cap room this summer, assuming the current projection of a $119 million cap figure holds.

  What is significant room? If the Knicks deal Randle for Barnes and you wipe away Taj’s team option and include Mitch’s cap hold and a rookie salary slot⁸, that leaves them with about $114.2 million in committed salary for next season. Take away Nerlens Noel or Kemba Walker, and that gets them down to about $105 million, give or take a hundred grand. That would give them the ability to offer someone roughly a four-year, $60 million contract - or about $5 million a year less than what Jalen Brunson’s market is rumored to be. I’m not terribly worried about wiping away that extra $5 million, especially with all the second round picks the Knicks have at their disposal⁹.

Randle and Noel for Barnes, Tristan Thompson’s expiring contract and a pick with some creative protections¹⁰ feels like the framework of a deal. Will either side have the gumption to pull the trigger? Only 10 days left to find out.

💫 Stars of the Game(s) 💫

Reminder that we have extra stars to distribute because I couldn’t bring myself to award any the night of the Miami game. As such, the below totals will be worth double in the standings:

⭐️ Evan Fournier: He was the best player in the Bucks game, at least on offense, scoring 25 points on 19 shots in 32 minutes. Given that both he an Kemba were a plus in the final plus/minus column, I’m not surprised Thibs is keeping the starting five together for at least one more game.

⭐️ ⭐️ Obi Toppin: Are you ready for another round of my favorite parlor game: can you guess the players who currently share Obi’s per 36 averages of 17 points, eight rebounds, two assists, one block, and 53 percent shooting, and have played at least 700 minutes?

First, a musical interlude:

Knicks Post @knicks_post

OBI TOPPIN WHATS POPPIN

I loved this move from Toppin, who used his propensity to do a dribble hand-off to his advantage and completely faked Middleton out of his shoes. More of these sorts of moves, please!

OK, our answer…Toppin shares those stats with four players: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jarrett Allen, John Collins and Montrezl Harrell. I’ll say it again: he’s a 3-pointer away from being a really interesting prospect.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Quentin Grimes: Not only is he already the best perimeter defender on the team…

…and not only does he have one of the quickest triggers in the NBA, but he’s also the most efficient non-big on the Knicks.

Grimes has an effective field goal percentage of 57.5. Other than the guys who get almost all of their looks down low, that’s easily the best on the team, with Evan Fournier’s 53.5 the next best. After Fournier, every other non-big is below league average (see also: why the Knicks stink).

More than that, he continues to show flashes of a more expanded game every time he sees the court:

I was pretty off about a few preseason predictions, but one that looks like a safe bet to come true is that a Knick rookie would play at least 1000 minutes for the fourth year in a row. Since coming off the Covid list, Grimes has averaged just over 21 minutes per game. If he maintains that, he’ll comfortably blow past the 1000 minute threshold. At this point? I’d set the over/under on 24.5 minutes per game over the final 32.

💫 Stars Standings 💫

Through 50 games, here’s where things stand:

1. RJ Barrett: 35 stars

2. Julius Randle: 32 stars

3. Immanuel Quickley: 31.5 stars

4. Mitchell Robinson: 31.5 stars

5. Alec Burks: 31 stars

6. Obi Toppin: 26.5 stars

7. Kemba Walker: 26 stars

8. Quentin Grimes: 20 stars

9. Evan Fournier: 18 stars

10. Derrick Rose: 16 stars

11. Nerlens Noel: 9 stars

12. Deuce McBride: 6 stars

13. Taj Gibson: 5.5 stars

Biggest Risers:

RJ Barrett, who catapulted himself from 6th to 1st place, followed by Quentin Grimes, who more than doubled his total and is now in 8th place. This checks out completely. More than a few fans have told me in recent weeks that Grimes is the player they are most excited to watch. As for Barrett, it’s quite clear that the time has come for him to take the reigns, for better or for worse. He’s more than earned the opportunity.

Biggest Fallers:

Alec Burks drops from 1st to 4th as he’s hit just 32.8 percent overall and 34.1 percent from deep since our last standings. Kemba Walker, meanwhile, falls from 4th to 7th after attaining just one star in the last 10 games.

Biggest Takeaway:

The most stars available for a player to attain in these standings is 150. Julius Randle, with 32, has barely 20 percent of that number. It is still second place in these standings though, which speaks to how even this version of Randle has been massively important to the Knicks. And yet, compared to last season, when Randle probably would have had over 100 stars by game 50, he is a shell of himself.

That tells you pretty much everything you need to know about the dicy situation the front office is in as the trade deadline approaches.

The next entrant on the #NYK75 will come your way tomorrow!

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. H/t Marc Berman

2. Which, coincidentally, plays about as much defense this season as the actual Julius Randle.

3. h/t Ian Begley

4. There’s also no obvious candidate. Chicago? Eh…I doubt they need a fourth offense-first/only player, even with a glaring hole at the four. There might be a fit in Dallas, and Tim Hardaway Jr is a matching salary, but I have a hard time believing the Knicks are going to send Randle to his hometown team and risk watching he and KP lift the Larry O’Brien trophy side by side, no matter how much the Mavs sweeten the pot.

Philly is the only interesting one, but something about the fit between Randle and Embiid doesn’t sit right with me, even if Randle could serve as their backup five and only has to share the court with the Embiid for 20-25 minutes a game. Randle arguably isn’t much of an upgrade over Harris anyway, and it’s not like the Sixers are going to give up Tyrese Maxey to find out. New York would also need to send out more salary to make this work.

5. Remember how much was made of the Kings pick that Boston owned, and how it would be brought up as a golden ticket every time the Celtics would be rumored to be interested in a star. Ironically, this turned out to be their lowest selection of the last 14 years, ending up 14th overall.

6. Barnes is scoring 121 points per 100 shot attempts, while Randle is at 100.9. Yes, that difference is as big as it sounds.

7. A little more than half of Randle’s shots are unassisted.

8. I’m projecting the 10th pick.

9. Burks, I’m guessing, is likely to be dealt at this deadline. There’s also no guarantee they’ll use their upcoming first, depending on what deals are on the table. The last resort is to dangle one of their many seconds to have someone take on Kemba or Noel this summer. Alternatively, they could always just work out a sign and trade with the Mavs.

10. Something like a 2023 1st protected 1-10 that goes to top-eight protections in 2024 and top-four in 2025. The deciding factor on these seems to be whether the end result is “converts to two seconds” or “unprotected.”