Lineup Data Mining

Today I examine some notable Knick lineups for reasons both good and bad.

Good morning! The Knicks are back in action tonight, facing off against the Pacers in Indiana. Tip off is at 7:30 and the game will be broadcast on TNT. Mitch wis out, and while Thibs didn’t officially rule out OG Anunoby when he spoke to the press yesterday, the odds of him playing are slim. For an Indy team that had been rolling but comes in losing two of their last three, Myles Turner is questionable. Here’s the halftime link if you want to say hi.

Lineup Data Mining

It’s Tuesday, the Knicks have two more games before the break, and we’re coming off a shitty Saturday night. Sounds like a perfect time to look at some lineup data.

I’m a fan of lineup data because it’s usually good for uncovering a nugget or two, but I wanted to try something a little different today. I scanned through the heavy minute combos for five players, four players, three players and two players, and then picked out one combination from each category that stood out as either very good or very not so good.

Here’s what I found, starting with the five-man grouping:

5-Man Lineup

• Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby & Achiuwa: 107.1 OFFRTG, 112.2 DEFRTG, -5.1 NET

With an even 100 minutes on their ledger, this is the third most used five-man lineup after the starting five and the four perimeter starters plus Jericho Sims. Given the results, I expect it to see about as many minutes over the rest of the season as the Sims group.

While my preseason estimation of this roster was accurate in most respects, one area I was dead wrong concerns Precious Achiuwa, who I thought would help Knick bench units resemble those of recent vintage. For the last few years, New York’s bench couldn’t keep up with the offensive output of the starters, but they more than made up for it with exceptional defense. I figured the switchability of Achiuwa at the five would help keep this trend going.

It hasn’t been the case. According to Cleaning the Glass, the defensive rating of the starters with Precious at center is actually worse than with KAT at center¹. The offense, meanwhile, falls off a cliff when Towns is off the court, as you might expect.

Digging a little deeper, lineups with Precious at the five are hemorrhaging shot attempts in the restricted area, allowing teams to take over 36 percent of their shots from this zone - more than the league-worst Pelicans’ defense. Part of this number stems from the inordinate amount of putback attempts that Achiuwa-at-center lineups are allowing: 22.4 percent of opponents’ missed shots result in a second opportunity, which ranks in the fifth percentile league-wide.

Because the rim is so accessible, Knick defenders have sagged off of shooters to an untenable degree, resulting in a 41.4 percent make rate from deep for opponents - far worse than the worst team in the league.

Can we find any brights spot here? There is one, if you squint hard enough…