Midlevel Madness

Could the Knicks throw us all for a loop and sign a player in free agency after all? Today I explore how it might be possible - and look at some candidates.

Good morning! Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Today we continue our deep dive into every nook and cranny of the offseason with a topic I frankly didn’t expect to be writing about.

News & Notes

🏀 According to Ian Begley, the Knicks will hold a free agent camp today. Former 6th overall pick Jarrett Culver will be among the participants.

Midlevel Madness

I’ve said some version of this before, but it bears repeating today:

The coolest part of Knicks Film School is how often the other members of this community force me to reconsider positions that I never thought I would question.

Case in point: last Friday, I wrote that there was “virtually no chance” the Knicks would use their non-taxpayer midlevel exception this summer because it would hard cap them at the first tax apron. Doing so would mean they’d be unable to make any trade where the incoming salary would bring their total cap number above $178.6 million, which is not a restriction I ever imagined they’d voluntary take on.

Clearly, the overwhelming national narrative from the last few years had incepted my brain. The Knicks will be on the hunt for (another) star player until the end of time, and they would not do anything to compromise that endeavor - including hard capping themselves.

Shame on me for being so obtuse, not because the front office is going to abandon their search for star talent anytime soon, but because they’ve shown a willingness to leave no stone unturned, even if that means occasionally threading a needle.

What might that mean for the summer ahead? Let’s refresh ourselves on New York’s cap outlook to help us answer that question.

Lil’ Leeway?

Right now, if we go by our assumed ‘24-25 salaries for OG Anunoby ($35 million) and Isaiah Hartenstein ($16.2 million), the Knicks would have $180.4 million on the books with those two players plus Julius, Jalen, Josh, Mitch, Donte, Deuce, Jericho, Bogey and both first round picks. That total, obviously, is above the first apron, and we haven’t even given them a veteran or two for the bench (although NBA rules only require you to have 12 roster spots filled, so technically they could leave the roster as is in this scenario).

The big wild card is Bogey, whose ‘24-25 salary is only guaranteed for $2 million but who I’ve been assuming they’ll guarantee for the full $19 million, either because they already have a trade lined up, or worst case, so they could save it as fungible salary to use later.

That was before I recorded this week’s “Cap or No Cap” with cap maestro Jeremy Cohen. In the episode, he asked a very simple question: what if the Knicks don’t have a trade teed up for when the offseason kicks off in a few weeks? Would they still bypass the full midlevel and keep Bogey out of an abundance of caution?

The question stopped me in my tracks, not because it was out of left field, but because it was so obvious. It’s entirely possible that there won’t be anything on the horizon by the end of June, to the point that even mutually agreeing to push back the Bogdanovic guarantee date a few days won’t make a difference.

Again, I’d been assuming all the while that they’d rather have his salary on the books than have it simply vanish into thin air, but in doing so, they’d almost certainly be resigning themselves to first apron status even if they traded away one of their first rounders in the upcoming draft.

It begged the question of what’s more desirable: being a first apron team that isn’t hard capped, or being hard capped at the apron with some wiggle room to maneuver?

And that’s when Jeremy brought me back to my previous assumption, and had me wondering whether I should be so sure the Knicks won’t use their non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is worth a not-insignificant $12.86 million for the upcoming season.

All Roads Lead to Bogey

To answer the question, we have to go back to Bogey.

If the Knicks non-guarantee his contract, they’d be left with a $2 million cap hit on their books. Added to the salary totals I listed above, they’d have $163.34 million in commitments, which is about $15.5 million under the first apron / hard cap. Using the full MLE would leave them dangerously close to the apron, especially considering two additional factors:

• The Knicks would probably want to fill out the back end of the roster with a reliable vet or two, which would add a little less than $2 million a pop per player.

• When the NBA calculates team salary in relation to the apron, unlikely bonuses are included in the total. That means two unlikely bonus that don’t count for normal cap purposes - Julius Randle’ $1,378,080 bonus which he missed because he played under 65 games, and Donte DiVincenzo’s $750,000 bonus tied to various postseason awards - will count when calculating whether they hit the hard cap.

So, with that in mind, is there a world where they still sign someone to all or most of the non-taxpayer MLE? This is where the devil truly is in the details, and a few other factors will come into play, namely:

• $35 million has been tossed around as both a starting salary and an average salary for OG Anunoby, but those are two very different things. If his average salary on a four-year deal is $35 million, his salary for next season could start as low as $31 million if we assume max raises. On a five-year deal, it could start even lower. On the flip side, his max salary next season is $42 million. Whether he’s on the higher or lower end of this spectrum could make an eight-figure difference.

• We’ve heard conflicting reports about whether the Knicks intend to use both of their first round selections in the upcoming draft. If they move one of those picks and it was replaced by a minimum roster charge, they’d save something in the neighborhood of $1.5 million next season. Move both, and they’d save close to $3 million.

• This would be a bit drastic, but the Knicks have the option of stretching the $2 million cap hit that would come from waiving Bogey. That would get them an additional $1.33 million in wiggle room for ‘24-25.

• Finally, teams don’t have to spend their entire MLE, although the Knicks may need to use the entire $12.86 million to make a competitive offer for a player with multiple suitors.

Speaking of suitors, hers’ something that isn’t exactly working in New York’s favor: as of now, only about a third of the league is slated to be in the tax, give or take a few teams. That means around 20 teams will be able to outbid or equal the Knicks’ offer for any player, either using cap space or their own non-taxpayer MLE

In the past, there have traditionally been quite a few teams that hoard cap space because they aren’t making a playoff push, but that all changed with the introduction of the salary floor and the play-in tournament. Other than Washington and maybe Charlotte and Portland, every team in the league will enter next season with its sights set on the playoffs, or at the very least, the play-in.

Not that the Knicks don’t have some built-in advantages. For one, they’re good, and players would rather suit up for a winner, all things being equal. Second, it’s New York, which will always carry some level of appeal. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, there is a clearly defined role up for grabs: second unit engine.

In a perfect world, New York would grab an offensive initiator who would come off the bench but also be able to play alongside Jalen Brunson. As Fred Katz and I discussed on the pod a few weeks ago, that’s the whole reason they acquired Alec Burks. In theory, he would have been able to swing between both roles. With nearly $13 million at their disposal next season, they should be able to find a younger, better option.

There’s only one problem: there’s no player on the free agent market who checks all of those ideal boxes, and those that come close will be priced out of the Knicks’ range.

Cross-Offs

The best available bench guards this summer are Malik Monk and D’Angelo Russell. Neither of these guys have the defensive chops that the Knicks would like, but they’re both offensively gifted enough that New York would hold their nose and look the other way if they could get either for the right price.

Except they probably can’t. Malik Monk may be up for a contract nearly double the MLE after finishing second in 6th Man of the Year voting last season. As for D-Lo, he has an $18.7 million player option that he’s reportedly set to decline. There’s no way he does that to take significantly less money.

Chris Paul is a name that has come up in connection with the Knicks in the past, mostly because of his relationship with former agent Leon Rose. In recent years though, Paul has reportedly wanted to remain close to his family’s Southern California home. That would make either of the LA teams a more likely outcome, or even just staying in Golden State on a smaller deal.

Attainable Point Guards

Among guys who might have to settle for the full MLE, Tyus Jones is probably the best of the bunch.

Jones’ name came up in connection to the Knicks before the deadline last season, but they were reportedly more enamored with trades that would return at least one player who could potentially be under contract for next season. Hence, Bogey and his partially guaranteed contract found their way to New York, and Jones remained in Washington.

Now the former Dukie is free to sign with anyone he wishes, and he will have a robust market. Jones is coming off his best year as a pro, starting 66 games for Washington and putting up the best numbers as a pro, including a sterling 56.9 effective field goal percentage.

The problem with Jones is his size. At a slight 6'2", you know Thibs would have qualms playing him alongside Deuce McBride, let alone Jalen Brunson. There’s also a history between Jones and Thibodeau dating back to their two and a half years together in Minnesota, when the then backup point guard didn’t see the floor quite as much as he’d have liked to.

A bigger option would be former first overall pick Markelle Fultz. Fultz briefly revived his career in Orlando when he started 60 games in the 2022-23 campaign and averaged career highs across the board. This season was a step back though, defined by more injuries, inefficiency, and the loss of his starting job.

Fultz just turned 26 and there’s still an interesting player in there somewhere, even if he has completely abandoned his 3-point shot. That said, the full MLE would be too rich a bet, and not worth the potential pitfalls that come with the hard cap.

Bargain Hunting

Even though the Knicks could get access to their full non-taxpayer MLE, that isn’t the only exception available to them.

They could also use the taxpayer mid-level exception, which is for less money than it’s non-taxpayer alternative. It’s worth about $5.2 million for next season, and while you won’t be able to get quite as good a player with that amount, it does come with one major benefit: teams that use it aren’t hard-capped at the first apron. Instead, taxpayer MLE users are hard capped at the second apron, which the Knicks don’t figure to top this season, especially if they non-guarantee Bogdanovic.

They can also feel a bit better about using this for immediate help and not risk a long term financial investment¹. Fultz would be one option, but if the M.O. is to find someone to juice the backup unit, they could probably do better for less money.

We should all be thankful that the days of Russell Westbrook-to-the-Knicks rumors are long gone, but now that he’s entered a new phase of his career, could Russ be an option for New York? The former MVP didn’t exactly go out in a blaze of glory in the postseason, shooting 26 percent from the field in LA’s six-game defeat at the hands of the Mavs. Even so, I wonder if they’d consider him as a fallback option if nothing else came to fruition.

After that, it gets pretty gnarly. Kyle Lowry seems like he wants to remain in Philly, and he’s not exactly a backcourt juicer at this phase of his career anyway.

Monte Morris? Patrick Beverly? Spencer Dinwiddie? You have to figure the front office will have its sights set a bit higher, especially if they’re going to dispense with the Bogey salary slot.

But if they’ve shown us anything, its that when life gives you lemons, go find some sugar and a spoon,

No, the perfect bench initiator who fits their price range may not exist on the free agent market, but that doesn’t mean the full MLE won’t be an option.

They just might need to think a little outside the box.

TOMORROW: Midlevel Madness Part II: Top 5 MLE Candidates

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. Both the taxpayer and non-taxpayer MLE can be for as little as one year, but non-taxpayer MLE recipients tend to be good enough to command multi-year deals, whereas it isn’t uncommon to see taxpayer MLE guys sign for only one year.