More Preseason Predictions

by Jonathan Macri

ICYMI, last Monday I kicked off the preseason by stating I’d make 17 not-so-bold predictions about the year ahead - one for every win the Knicks had last season.

In that column, I only revealed one: the Mitchell Robinson was going to fully make the leap to stardom by 2020. After five fouls in 11 minutes Friday night, we’re off to a rousing start.

(in fairness, I did write that he’d experience some early foul woes this season being a full-time starter for the first time, but that he’d sort it out by November. I stand by it.)

Now, with a few preseason games in the book, here are predictions two through nine. The last eight will be revealed next week, including how many wins I think New York will end up with. For now though, let’s focus on a few of the players, starting with a guy who is sure to drive folks nuts in short order…

2. Julius Randle averages 25, 10, 5…and 5. I'm not comfortable predicting literally any other individual statistical benchmark for this roster, but this is one I feel good about.

The points and rebounds are almost givens. They're going to feature Randle so damn much, and we know Fiz is emphasizing the hell out of the boards.

The five dimes a game is more important than either of the first two numbers. If he gets there, it means the offense is gelling and this team might actually be - gasp - a treat to watch.

I wrote over the summer that Randle should be trying to model his game after Blake Griffin, who has averaged 5.3 assists per game over his last five seasons. Julius isn’t Blake, but he can get to something like 85% of that kind of playmaking, as shown by his 11 dimes through two preseason affairs. I mean, look at this baby.

So that’s good. Less good is the eight turnovers he’s had, which is where the last “5” comes in. I think Randle has a real shot to average five turnovers a game. I hope to God that I’m wrong, but we saw Boogie Cousins achieve this “feat” as a playmaking big with the Pels two seasons ago.

It’s not out of the question.

3. Allonzo Trier establishes himself as an honest-to-goodness helpful NBA rotation player. In this league, if you have one truly elite skill, almost regardless of what else you do or don't do, you're usually going to find yourself on a court.

Allonzo Trier is a scorer. His efficiency and usage combined put him in some elite company among his peers. He also lives at the damn line, shooting double digit free throws four times in 64 games, and the 3-ball is only going to get better from the 39 percent he hit last year.

I know some people have theorized that he might be in danger of some DNP's because of all the new additions. After playing just eight minutes in the first preseason game and not checking into the second one until the third quarter, these folks would seem to have a point.

I’m calling bullshit. I think Fiz knows what he has in Trier, likes what he has in Trier, and needs what he has in Trier, especially if RJ is going to start and the second unit is in need of someone who can break down a defense. He’s not going anywhere.

I wish I could say the same for every young player, but since I can't...

4. One of Frank or Dot is not here past the trade deadline. There's no prediction I hope I'm wrong about more than this one, as I love both of these cats, but doing the math, it just doesn't add up.

(If this were really a bold predictions column, here is where I'd suggest the Knicks won't pick up Frank's fourth-year option – which, regardless of how he figures into their future plans, would be insane – but I can’t go that far, especially after Fiz made a point to spend a few minutes talking up the kid during Day 2 of camp, and corrected Chris Iseman at Media Day when he referred to the point guard battle as merely a two-man race.)

Maybe I'm wrong and they both supplant a more obvious rotation piece sooner rather than later. Maybe the deals that are out there for each are so pitiful because neither plays enough to raise their value, and they survive the deadline. Maybe they play more to close out the season after someone ahead of them gets moved.

None of these scenarios are far fetched. I just wouldn't bet on it. That said...

5. Frank gets a real chance. I only add the caveat that I'm not sure the Knicks will ever play a system conducive enough to his strengths (or designed to hide his weaknesses) to convince them he's worth a long term investment. If he's a Knick next year, he's going to need to be the guy we saw during that splendid two-and-a-half-game stretch in early December last year, witnessed again during FIBA, and have seen take 17 shots in 42 minutes this preseason (although a few more makes would help).

I haven't ruled out him staying long term, and I don't think the Knicks have either. So in that case...

6. Yeah I guess I'm predicting Dot gets traded. Sigh. Love me some Dot.

Houston makes some sense, especially since Dotson is from the area. They need guys who fit Dot’s profile, and the fact that they just lost Gerald Green to a broken foot means they have an opening.

7. RJ Barrett will be bad...and no one will care. No, the fan base won't suddenly turn apathetic. I just think it's going to be readily apparent that Barrett has all the makings of a future stud despite the usual first-year struggles.

Most rookies, remember, are terrible. Even star-in-the-making, primary-option-types that have people fawning over themselves - Doncic last season, Mitchell the year before - are often woefully inefficient and turn it over a bunch. Barrett will fit this bill.

He'll also make it clear that these will be mere bumps in a long road that's going to get much smoother. The ease with which he repelled the stink from his first two summer league games was more impressive than anything he did on the court. Nothing phases the kid, and he seems to have a preternatural sense about what it takes to be a solid pro, no doubt due to his unique upbringing.

He'll be just fine.

8. DSJ isn't the Knicks long term answer at point guard. This is completely, 100%, not a shred of evidence whatsoever-based gut feeling.

I know the arguments (Hell, I’ve made them myself). He's got all the talent. I think the shot will be respectable enough. I'm not terribly worried about his back. His defense should improve with games that matter and with Elf lighting a fire under his ass. And my Lord, is the best version of Smith Jr. exactly the type of guy Fiz wants running his show.

I just...I don't know. Something irks me. Can't put my finger on it.

Nothing would make me happier than to have this thrown back in my face, because if Dennis kills it this year, the trajectory of this entire franchise changes in an instant. I’m just dubious it will.

(How was that for a reverse jinx? OK? I did my best, promise…)

And last but not least for today:

9. Marcus Morris will be everyone's favorite Knick by November. So what that this is obvious. I'm entitled to a freebee.

That’s it for now…check back next week for the final eight, and stay tuned later this week for more KFS Newsletters!