On par with Melo - i sports hated that guy so much. Lots of fans have similar blind dislike for him, and i don't think he can change that after last year.
There's not much written at this point about RJ's injury. How the hell did it happen? Do we need to check fingernails before the games? Hate to think about the potential for eye injuries if a fingernail was the villain.
Luka's size, height, footwork, and ball skills means he takes makable shots almost every time down the court. IQs size and speed means his only hi percentage shots come on "wide open" ones. Its a tough diet, and no wonder his efg is low. Any good comps for his size/speed being successful long term? Darren Collison?
Nice! However, I do have a slightly different take on the Randle position in the offensive Pantheon than your analysis suggests, as his proportional contributions to the offense are not on the same level as those you mentioned for the seasons you cited (HT basketball reference, all rounding errors my own - this was some back of the envelope stuff). When you take into account Randle’s contribution to the offensive side, he’s doing tremendous work, but meaningfully less than Ewing, McAdoo and King in 89/90, 78/79 + 83/84, respectively. At 24.1 pts/game, Randle is contributing 21% of the average scoring output for a team this year each game (113.7 avg ppg/team). He’s doing so at league average efficiency (47%). Ewing, in 89/90, contributed 27% of the avg scoring output of a team that year, and at about 7.1% greater than average efficiency. King in 83/84 contributed about 24% at +8.2% efficiency, and McAdoo also contributed 24% but at +5.1% efficiency. To be in this tier, Randle would have to contribute roughly 28.5 ppg at 53% efficiency for the year. And, fwiw, I’m guessing his minutes per game are as high or higher than the comps as well, so the counting stats interpretation becomes more nuanced. Again, it’s impressive as hell... but it isn’t Ewing/King/McAdoo impressive. Or maybe I’m just old and love me some old timey heroes.
You are 100% spot on Ben. And shame on me, because with RJ, I always point out how his eFG% needs to be taken in comparison to league average when its put up against guys with poor eFG% numbers from 10 or 20 years ago. The % of team points is also good, although funny enough, Randle is averaging the 28 points you noted over the last 18 games.
Not shameful at all. Hard to use some of those stats across eras anyway, especially when they seem like they should be directly comparable - for example, eFG favors 3pt % and implicitly favors any era in which the 3pt shot was a real weapon. That’s one of the reasons I prefer to think in terms of %team points fwiw. And re Randle - yes! That occurred to me as well - and it served as a reminder of just how variable his game can be depending (presumably) on his mindset.
We are a good team. Not a great team, but certainly a good team.
I predicted that we would finish 42-40, and that’s what we are on track to do. I also predicted that we would be 1 of 6 teams fighting for those 4 spots in the play in, and once Miami rises above the Pacers in the standings, and I believe most think that is a certainty, that is exactly what we will have.
The Knicks, like the other 5 teams in this group, are capable of looking very good at times, but also equally capable of looking very flawed at times.
There are no shortcuts in life, there is just no way to go straight from being a dumpster fire to bring a championship contender.
As far as this group of 6 teams I’ve been talking about all year, it also appears that we are starting to see some degree of separation between them, and barring a major injury to a key player, we should be closer to the top of this group.
The January schedule gets softer as the month goes on, when we get our guys back, we should have another little run in us.
"There are no shortcuts in life, there is just no way to go straight from being a dumpster fire to bring a championship contender." This is exactly the point in my mind, brother. Which is why above all else, I am actually happy where this organization is. And despite the errors the FO has made and as frustrating Thibs can be, I do not want them fired and change directions - yet again. Keep doing the right thing organizationally and something will eventually break our way so we can compete with the big boys. The "Tank-mentality," "fire everybody," and "get a star" type of get rich quick attitudes is the reason this has been a garbage organization, IMO. Our only path to relevancy is the good ol fashioned work for it and build from the bottom up approach....which we are actually doing.
All of that being said, the front office, through their amassing a war chest of draft equity, while at the same time managing their cap space to ensure maximum flexibility, have positioned themselves to make a deal for a player who can be the centerpiece to a championship contender.
We don’t yet know who that player will be, we don’t know who is going to tear down at the deadline, we don’t know which player is going to demand a trade, but there is always somebody.
One such somebody comes to the Garden this afternoon in the name of DeAndre Ayton. Ayton wants out of Phoenix so bad he was willing to go to Indiana. The reason he wants out is because Monty Williams doesn’t know how to use him, and he is frustrated. Ayton needs to play with his back to the basket, not the way he is being used presently in an offense built for Booker and Paul, who never pass to him anyway, where Ayton is used as a cutter and other than that is just a rebounder.
Ayton, if put in a Thibs offense would be a Joel Embiid type of player. Maybe he doesn’t reach that level, that is TBD, but close to it.
Mitch Robinson, Obi Toppin, along with 3-5 #1s would be an attractive offer to a Suns team in the midst of a free fall, who already have a hole at the 4 position, who are about to be sold to a new owner who would value the draft picks as an opportunity to bring their own people in.
Funny...My pipe dream is actually OG Anunoby and go all in on defense. Substitute OG's defense for RJ's defense (while still having assets - unlike all in for Mitchell) puts us another step closer to the big boys. Regardless, it sure is nice to be positioned to even speculate about taking another step forward, as opposed to the 20 year dumpster fire of an organization we have been!
I hear you about RJ, more and more I’m coming around to the opinion that he’s never going to reach his full potential. I think a big part as to why is because he grew up living a life of privilege, so he doesn’t have that kind of inner drive that kids who have less options in life do. Maybe the problem is that he feels he has met his goals and he doesn’t really want to raise the bar. Ironically, if the Knicks were to trade him away and give up on him, that would be the wake up he probably needs.
OG is a good player, no doubt, but is that trade going to yield a measurable improvement? Also, OG is pretty much at his ceiling as a player, where Barrett isn’t. Maybe RJ never fulfills his potential, then it’s a good trade, but if he does, then the trade looks bad over time. For that reason a straight up trade OG for RJ isn’t enough for me to get me to potentially give up on RJ too early. He’s still too young and he has shown flashes of taking it to the next level and becoming a 25 points a night player. Until he gives us a reason to cut the cord early, I want to make sure we hold onto Barrett until he is at least 25 years old.
I hear ya...to add to your point: it wouldn't even be a straight up trade. We would have to sweeten the pot. While you allow yourself to dream about RJ's upside (which includes defensive limitations due to his poor athleticism), I dream about adding an elite defensive wing to this squad along with 19-20 ppg. Yeah we also have to pay him. But Randle and JB are on reasonable contracts. Come on my brother, climb aboard my vision. Let's speak this into existence 😉!
We need a Randle backup, and in fairness Obi shouldn't want to be that guy--the money wouldn't be what he could command elsewhere as the starting 4. Sims doesn't have an outside shot so he's not a candidate. Find us a backup 4 that can defend, hit some 3s and get some boards. Don't see that guy on the Pacers. . . unless it's Jalen Smith ? ? ! !
Not so much like that. It's a combination of liking the Randle we are seeing now and realizing that Obi's future in New York is not what it could be with the right team. I love my Obi, for sure, and would miss his spectacular dunks. Also, getting Obi's next contract under the cap would be a problem, and I don't think I want Quickly's departure to be the solution.
Can a team without a "star" really think about trading Julius Randle if he puts together one of the great offensive seasons in Knicks history? Is it possible resurgent Randle performance is correlated to Obi being out? Before the season, I would have said trade Julius and keep Obi. But if we can only keep one of IQ or Obi, I would rather keep IQ and Randle than Randle and Obi. And, it's not close.
KFS, I am struggling to get excited about this team even though they aren’t that bad. I see a team that going to be decent BUT only capable of margin moves until they make a major change. I think Barrett, Randle, and Jalen are good players but they take turns on offense in a slow 1/2 offense and leave little room for anyone else. Outside of preseason and the first month of each year this is who we are. I don’t think it can take us that far and don’t think anyone else will pop with this group playing for this coach. I don’t think I’m alone. Maybe you guys could help. Why should we be excited heading into the new year?
In short, the team knows who they are, they play to their strengths, they avoid their weaknesses, and they play a brand of ball that is generally fun and enjoyable. How many Knick teams have you been able to say that about in the last 22 years? They're a star away, but there is a path to getting that star. We know what it is. It won't happen before the summer, but I see no reason why we can't enjoy a pretty good, pretty fun team in the meantime.
Thanks. I appreciate the effort. I think Barrett is my horse. He’ll get the usage to show his growth and has definitely shown significant signs. Still think this team could be much more fun with some minor tweaks. Move the ball a little earlier in the half, I couple on ball reps and a couple off ball screens plays for Grimes, a couple more mins and actions for Obi, a little high post Hart. Seems like everything is like the rotations where it’s all or nothing.
All those tweaks seem more than fair. You know RJ will keep getting the reps because they've invested so heavily in him in more ways than one. Now it's about making those reps good ones.
Randle has proven to be a good scorer (even better then I thought possible). He has also proven that he will sulk and act like a child if the team doesn’t play at a snails pace and run the offense through him most of the time. Knick fans and content creator have willfully overlooked the fact that for the 2nd straight year Randle rejected the role envisioned for him at the start of the year bc he wanted his. For the 2nd year in a row the team bent to his will. This time they are decent. They are also a slow down team with 3 high usage off the dribble play makers and everyone else watching. There is no room for a 4th impact player on O even if one of the kids was ready to be more. We are rearranging the deck chairs with few to no other possibilities until one of the team defining faces is moved or let go
I would argue that Julius has done a really nice job doing what the team needs of him. Less time with the ball, less long twos, less dribbling into bad situations...it'll never be perfect with him, but it's certainly better, and a lot better of late.
Randle is the family heirloom that half of the family hates...
On par with Melo - i sports hated that guy so much. Lots of fans have similar blind dislike for him, and i don't think he can change that after last year.
Oh so true, Bailey.
There's not much written at this point about RJ's injury. How the hell did it happen? Do we need to check fingernails before the games? Hate to think about the potential for eye injuries if a fingernail was the villain.
McAdoo can do! Where have you gone?
Thank you for the holiday newsletter, Jonathan! Sanity restoring victory (somewhat) last night.
Happy New Year to all!
McAdoo's numbers are nuts. Still their all time leader in PPG.
Thrilled my guy Randle is having this bounce back season. I don't know how long his Knick tenure will be but it's gonna be one of the weirdest ones.
Luka's size, height, footwork, and ball skills means he takes makable shots almost every time down the court. IQs size and speed means his only hi percentage shots come on "wide open" ones. Its a tough diet, and no wonder his efg is low. Any good comps for his size/speed being successful long term? Darren Collison?
Hmmmm...that's a good question. Collison is a good one.
Nice! However, I do have a slightly different take on the Randle position in the offensive Pantheon than your analysis suggests, as his proportional contributions to the offense are not on the same level as those you mentioned for the seasons you cited (HT basketball reference, all rounding errors my own - this was some back of the envelope stuff). When you take into account Randle’s contribution to the offensive side, he’s doing tremendous work, but meaningfully less than Ewing, McAdoo and King in 89/90, 78/79 + 83/84, respectively. At 24.1 pts/game, Randle is contributing 21% of the average scoring output for a team this year each game (113.7 avg ppg/team). He’s doing so at league average efficiency (47%). Ewing, in 89/90, contributed 27% of the avg scoring output of a team that year, and at about 7.1% greater than average efficiency. King in 83/84 contributed about 24% at +8.2% efficiency, and McAdoo also contributed 24% but at +5.1% efficiency. To be in this tier, Randle would have to contribute roughly 28.5 ppg at 53% efficiency for the year. And, fwiw, I’m guessing his minutes per game are as high or higher than the comps as well, so the counting stats interpretation becomes more nuanced. Again, it’s impressive as hell... but it isn’t Ewing/King/McAdoo impressive. Or maybe I’m just old and love me some old timey heroes.
You are 100% spot on Ben. And shame on me, because with RJ, I always point out how his eFG% needs to be taken in comparison to league average when its put up against guys with poor eFG% numbers from 10 or 20 years ago. The % of team points is also good, although funny enough, Randle is averaging the 28 points you noted over the last 18 games.
Not shameful at all. Hard to use some of those stats across eras anyway, especially when they seem like they should be directly comparable - for example, eFG favors 3pt % and implicitly favors any era in which the 3pt shot was a real weapon. That’s one of the reasons I prefer to think in terms of %team points fwiw. And re Randle - yes! That occurred to me as well - and it served as a reminder of just how variable his game can be depending (presumably) on his mindset.
I love % of team points. Going to try and incorporate moving forward
We are a good team. Not a great team, but certainly a good team.
I predicted that we would finish 42-40, and that’s what we are on track to do. I also predicted that we would be 1 of 6 teams fighting for those 4 spots in the play in, and once Miami rises above the Pacers in the standings, and I believe most think that is a certainty, that is exactly what we will have.
The Knicks, like the other 5 teams in this group, are capable of looking very good at times, but also equally capable of looking very flawed at times.
There are no shortcuts in life, there is just no way to go straight from being a dumpster fire to bring a championship contender.
As far as this group of 6 teams I’ve been talking about all year, it also appears that we are starting to see some degree of separation between them, and barring a major injury to a key player, we should be closer to the top of this group.
The January schedule gets softer as the month goes on, when we get our guys back, we should have another little run in us.
"There are no shortcuts in life, there is just no way to go straight from being a dumpster fire to bring a championship contender." This is exactly the point in my mind, brother. Which is why above all else, I am actually happy where this organization is. And despite the errors the FO has made and as frustrating Thibs can be, I do not want them fired and change directions - yet again. Keep doing the right thing organizationally and something will eventually break our way so we can compete with the big boys. The "Tank-mentality," "fire everybody," and "get a star" type of get rich quick attitudes is the reason this has been a garbage organization, IMO. Our only path to relevancy is the good ol fashioned work for it and build from the bottom up approach....which we are actually doing.
Love it, love it, love it.
All of that being said, the front office, through their amassing a war chest of draft equity, while at the same time managing their cap space to ensure maximum flexibility, have positioned themselves to make a deal for a player who can be the centerpiece to a championship contender.
We don’t yet know who that player will be, we don’t know who is going to tear down at the deadline, we don’t know which player is going to demand a trade, but there is always somebody.
One such somebody comes to the Garden this afternoon in the name of DeAndre Ayton. Ayton wants out of Phoenix so bad he was willing to go to Indiana. The reason he wants out is because Monty Williams doesn’t know how to use him, and he is frustrated. Ayton needs to play with his back to the basket, not the way he is being used presently in an offense built for Booker and Paul, who never pass to him anyway, where Ayton is used as a cutter and other than that is just a rebounder.
Ayton, if put in a Thibs offense would be a Joel Embiid type of player. Maybe he doesn’t reach that level, that is TBD, but close to it.
Mitch Robinson, Obi Toppin, along with 3-5 #1s would be an attractive offer to a Suns team in the midst of a free fall, who already have a hole at the 4 position, who are about to be sold to a new owner who would value the draft picks as an opportunity to bring their own people in.
Funny...My pipe dream is actually OG Anunoby and go all in on defense. Substitute OG's defense for RJ's defense (while still having assets - unlike all in for Mitchell) puts us another step closer to the big boys. Regardless, it sure is nice to be positioned to even speculate about taking another step forward, as opposed to the 20 year dumpster fire of an organization we have been!
I hear you about RJ, more and more I’m coming around to the opinion that he’s never going to reach his full potential. I think a big part as to why is because he grew up living a life of privilege, so he doesn’t have that kind of inner drive that kids who have less options in life do. Maybe the problem is that he feels he has met his goals and he doesn’t really want to raise the bar. Ironically, if the Knicks were to trade him away and give up on him, that would be the wake up he probably needs.
OG is a good player, no doubt, but is that trade going to yield a measurable improvement? Also, OG is pretty much at his ceiling as a player, where Barrett isn’t. Maybe RJ never fulfills his potential, then it’s a good trade, but if he does, then the trade looks bad over time. For that reason a straight up trade OG for RJ isn’t enough for me to get me to potentially give up on RJ too early. He’s still too young and he has shown flashes of taking it to the next level and becoming a 25 points a night player. Until he gives us a reason to cut the cord early, I want to make sure we hold onto Barrett until he is at least 25 years old.
I hear ya...to add to your point: it wouldn't even be a straight up trade. We would have to sweeten the pot. While you allow yourself to dream about RJ's upside (which includes defensive limitations due to his poor athleticism), I dream about adding an elite defensive wing to this squad along with 19-20 ppg. Yeah we also have to pay him. But Randle and JB are on reasonable contracts. Come on my brother, climb aboard my vision. Let's speak this into existence 😉!
I'm with you on predictions, although I've started to think maybe 43-44 wins for a total.
I’m surprised you didn’t touch on the Obi to Indiana rumor floating around the webisphere https://8points9seconds.com/2022/12/31/nba-insider-indiana-pacers-trade-rumors/
purposely avoided for now. That reporter has a spotty track record. That said, will be handling the notion of an Obi trade soon
We need a Randle backup, and in fairness Obi shouldn't want to be that guy--the money wouldn't be what he could command elsewhere as the starting 4. Sims doesn't have an outside shot so he's not a candidate. Find us a backup 4 that can defend, hit some 3s and get some boards. Don't see that guy on the Pacers. . . unless it's Jalen Smith ? ? ! !
No thanks! Obi is out a few games and you all ready to shack up with a new woman!
Not so much like that. It's a combination of liking the Randle we are seeing now and realizing that Obi's future in New York is not what it could be with the right team. I love my Obi, for sure, and would miss his spectacular dunks. Also, getting Obi's next contract under the cap would be a problem, and I don't think I want Quickly's departure to be the solution.
Can a team without a "star" really think about trading Julius Randle if he puts together one of the great offensive seasons in Knicks history? Is it possible resurgent Randle performance is correlated to Obi being out? Before the season, I would have said trade Julius and keep Obi. But if we can only keep one of IQ or Obi, I would rather keep IQ and Randle than Randle and Obi. And, it's not close.
I don't think a team without a star would trade for Randle, but then again, I'm not sure how many of those teams are out there.
KFS, I am struggling to get excited about this team even though they aren’t that bad. I see a team that going to be decent BUT only capable of margin moves until they make a major change. I think Barrett, Randle, and Jalen are good players but they take turns on offense in a slow 1/2 offense and leave little room for anyone else. Outside of preseason and the first month of each year this is who we are. I don’t think it can take us that far and don’t think anyone else will pop with this group playing for this coach. I don’t think I’m alone. Maybe you guys could help. Why should we be excited heading into the new year?
In short, the team knows who they are, they play to their strengths, they avoid their weaknesses, and they play a brand of ball that is generally fun and enjoyable. How many Knick teams have you been able to say that about in the last 22 years? They're a star away, but there is a path to getting that star. We know what it is. It won't happen before the summer, but I see no reason why we can't enjoy a pretty good, pretty fun team in the meantime.
That's the best I got.
Thanks. I appreciate the effort. I think Barrett is my horse. He’ll get the usage to show his growth and has definitely shown significant signs. Still think this team could be much more fun with some minor tweaks. Move the ball a little earlier in the half, I couple on ball reps and a couple off ball screens plays for Grimes, a couple more mins and actions for Obi, a little high post Hart. Seems like everything is like the rotations where it’s all or nothing.
All those tweaks seem more than fair. You know RJ will keep getting the reps because they've invested so heavily in him in more ways than one. Now it's about making those reps good ones.
Randle has proven to be a good scorer (even better then I thought possible). He has also proven that he will sulk and act like a child if the team doesn’t play at a snails pace and run the offense through him most of the time. Knick fans and content creator have willfully overlooked the fact that for the 2nd straight year Randle rejected the role envisioned for him at the start of the year bc he wanted his. For the 2nd year in a row the team bent to his will. This time they are decent. They are also a slow down team with 3 high usage off the dribble play makers and everyone else watching. There is no room for a 4th impact player on O even if one of the kids was ready to be more. We are rearranging the deck chairs with few to no other possibilities until one of the team defining faces is moved or let go
I would argue that Julius has done a really nice job doing what the team needs of him. Less time with the ball, less long twos, less dribbling into bad situations...it'll never be perfect with him, but it's certainly better, and a lot better of late.
What's the word on Obi Toppin returning?