Maybe your best newsletter yet on a topic I don’t want to read and yet can’t stop myself. There are four other reasons to be very concerned about the Rose regime:
1. The Knicks were arrogant: not only were they sure they could put together the best package, they made sure it was broadcasted. So Ainge had every emotional motive to trade Mitchell anywhere but NY. And that arrogance led the, to make the deal killing assumption, that the Jazz would bring the Cavs’ offer back to the Knicks. I am sure the Cavs said, take it or leave it and you may not shop it.
2. The Knicks got too cute. Every fan knows that you are going to give more than you want for a superstar. The Knicks thought they could have their cake and eat it too. And again, Ainge was more than pleased to take the Cavs offer and not deal with the Knicks.
3. This one hurts the most. The Knicks told their fans that the fans are wrong. They took a guy -- RJ who many fans were optimistic about and basically said, the fans were wrong, he is no star, he never will be a star. So now the fans either believe they are wrong or the Knicks are wrong. The Knicks being wrong means that RJ is just another player, one the Knicks don’t place high value. Thus, the fans should not either. Or you are like me and still have confidence in RJ developing into a star and now They question the intelligence of the Knicks front office.
4. Rose lost the negotiation. Hell, Rose was not here because he was a sharp evaluator of talent, he was brought here to get stars in the building and as a former agent, he would be a slick and smart negotiator.
Now the question is, “why is Rose the President of the Knicks.
So to some it up, we did not get the star we were promised, we wasted the 11th pick in the draft; the players we were all excited about Knick management is not; and hell’s bells, the least favorite Knick of the past 25 years is still on the team.
It feels very bleak around the Knicks and I think many (including myself) believe the Rose regime needs to go and they need to bring in an insider like the Nets did with Sean Marks or the Jazz just did with Ainge. The Knicks need to reset.
Sep 5, 2022·edited Sep 5, 2022Liked by Jonathan Macri
I want to believe the front office values Barrett and thinks he has the potential to be a star or at the very least a Robin to someone's Batman but also willing to deal him if it meant they could get Mitchell and hold on to some of their unprotected picks....but for the life of me I don't understand why the Knicks would leak (if it was the Knicks) offering 3 unprotected plus Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and Obi. I thought they didn't want to give up 3 unprotected picks and if they did why not do that plus leaving Barrett out?...which I thought was how this deal would eventually go down.
Man oh man, now I'm even more down on them than I already was! Your point about why is Leon here and not someone who has actually proven to have a track record in THIS particular job is one I could not bring myself to ask, but it has to be in the back of our minds. Masai was the rumored target, he went with Leon instead. We all know why that was at the time. Do we still? Alas, I can't call for a reset yet. Let's see how this season plays out. But I may be joining you by next summer.
Sep 5, 2022·edited Sep 5, 2022Liked by Jonathan Macri
Another phenomenal read!
I think you touched on basically all the points that needed to be covered, except for one: Leon and his background. At the end of the day, Leon is an agent. He’s not a FO executive and was never one until he joined the Knicks. This is not me putting down his credentials, I am simply pointing out that agents tend to view things and then subsequently act differently, then what we know as “normal FO executives”. I would like to clarify that I am clearly not an agent so I cannot speak to how they might view things in a different manner. However, in saying that, it might not be a coincidence that the Knicks and Lakers both had agents at the helm of their organization making decisions during their failed pursuits of Mitchell and (the initial failed pursuit of) AD, which as you point out are quite similar in a number of ways. Also, it would be quite interesting if we were to find out the opinions of one of our other FO members who actually had history as a FO executive, say Scott Perry, to see what his thoughts were about this potential trade, and to see if he was onboard with all the speculated proposals and ideas. Basically, I would love to know if this seemingly relentless pursuit of Mitchell, at least from the willingness to trade and table all the young players point of view, was driven by Leon and Wes, or from the more experienced FO members. Would love to hear any thoughts!
you nailed it Jonas. I try to keep the newsletter to only what I can justify with evidence, and I don't feel I have the evidence to suggest that as an agent, he went about this the wrong way, but that is my opinion, and I think Windy said it best when he said that you can know this business inside and out, but until you've done it, it doesn't mean much, and it is VERY hard to land the plane in these negotiations. Seasoned guys are able to do it. Leon could not.
Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 8, 2022Liked by Jonathan Macri
Well then going off what you said, here's my question: How does Leon gain the experience that is needed for the job? In order to do so, he certainly needs to play a bigger part than simply directing and observing from the sideline, and actually go out and do stuff, right? But then why was Rosas leading the negotiations for Mitchell during trade talks with the Jazz, if said report is true. How can Leon realistically become one of those seasoned guys if he is not getting his hands dirty while relying on others to do his bidding? That to me does not seem like a recipe for success. I get the idea of trying to create an FO that has a little bit of everything, with specialists in each field who each have a prominent voice and say, all reporting to an overarching authority, don't get me wrong. But to me, that looks and feels too much like a presidential cabinet and not a traditional NBA FO. And I genuinely feel that Leon is attempting to act from a good place with good intentions. But the processes and outcomes resulting from all of his actions (or lack of actions) are pilling up on the negative side, speaking for themselves, and doing the talking.
Maybe he feels like he never has to be the one on the phone. I honestly don't know. I love the cabinet comp, it seems apt. I also agree it comes from a good place, but in practicality it may not be tenable. Well said all around
a lot of the reporting on the deal seems contradictory. here's my take on how it went down.
> Ainge opened the negotiations asking for the moon -- RJ, Mitch, OBI and three UP firsts and more
> Leon said no way and resigned Mitch
> Leon countered with a pick heavy deal not including RJ
> Ainge said he needed RJ in the deal
> Leon told Bill Duffy the situation and said knicks would prefer to sign RJ at 100-120 mil b4 camp
> Duffy got word to Ainge that RJ wasnt playing in UTA for less than the full max
> Ainge called Duffy's bluff because he knew he could redirect RJ to a third team for a boatload
> Ainge continued to insist the knicks include their best asset - RJ
> Leon relents and tells Ainge he can have RJ but only 2 future picks not three and nothing else.
> Ainge insists on three picks and more assets WITH RJ
> Leon says no deal he's signing RJ long term.
> RJ signs long term so Ainge turns to Cavs.
with this TL Leon used the leverage of UTA wanting RJ ( at least as an asset to redirect) to get RJ for a less than FULL max deal.
the whole part of Leon valuing Q Grimes as untouchable but willing to offer RJ in any deal sounds far fetched or made up. i think the demands for RJ came from UTA -- Ainge was not doing a deal without the KNICKS best asset.. was it spite for showing up at the playoffs? maybe.. but AINGE wanted players HE liked.. REMEMBER he liked Sexton A LOT.. and getting sexton to agree to 4/75 was better for Ainge than getting RJ who would not want to play in UTA.
so we move on. hopefully knicks find a taker for Randle and Ev .. Randle more urgently.
This is very smart. I think the pivot point is really how much did the Knicks actually want to deal away RJ. What you do a great job of is explaining why, regardless of the reporting, Ainge certainly wanted RJ...HOWEVER he clearly didn't view him as a future no doubt about it star player (or, I suppose, didn't think he could find another team who would view him as such and b willing to put their money - picks - where there mouth was). If he did, I *think*, he'd have made more of an effort to take one of the RJ-centric deals before the deadline. I might be off here, but would love your thoughts.
i think -- and again this is complete speculation -- that RJ's AGENT Duffy didnt want RJ in UTA for less than the FULL MAX and AINGE viewed Sexton at 4/75 as a better asset than RJ at 4/XXX . Also, as i wrote below, RJ was certainly a player other teams coveted.. i mean how could he not be? anyone who watched him this year could see the leap he made.. and how much MORE there is in upside..
just spit balling but wouldnt OKC or Memphis or New Orleans give up whatever they could to get RJ Barrett even if they had to pay him a full max.? also would toronto give up MAJOR assets to bring RJ home? OF COURSE
I guess it comes down to this: how confident was Ainge that he could find a team that would give up 2 distant future unprotected firsts for RJ? And would it matter to him what the team was? Would he have been ok with the picks coming from the Raptors, who currently employ the best hoops exec in the sport? Or OKC, who seems to be building something that will be a powerhouse once they actually decide to start winning games? IDK...
I'd probably feel better knowing that Ainge insisted on RJ as I didn't want him traded but all of the rumors before everything went down was that the Knicks could get a deal done without trading Barrett and also that Ainge didn't even want Barrett. Was any of that even true...if it were I might have been willing to part with 3 unprotected picks for a player like Mitchell...just don't know how you get another star with all or most of your trade assets gone in a deal with the Jazz. I would have been okay with that (obviously the Knicks were not!) and my hope would be that Barrett becomes that star and Brunson continues to improve as well....realistically that doesn't win you a title but we are no where near that with this roster without a trade...basically stuck in mediocrity.
i bet New Orleans would have sent a TON of assets, including unprotected pics, to the JAZZ to pair RJ with his old buddy Zion. Ainge probably didnt "want" RJ but wanted to move him somewhere else. if Agent Duffy was playing hard ball on the contract extension with the Jazz then that fits..
Seems like everyone I root for is bad at talent evaluation to some degree, but the Knicks might have made a confused art form of not knowing what they are doing. And yet I still want to see what this team does. More fool me.
Jon - You started off summarizing that the Knicks attempted to complete the trade on their own terms and weren't willing to relent giving Ainge what he wanted.... and that's why the deal didn't get done ... I understand you are bummed but I think the front office was aggressive making a bunch of strong offers in various configurations and the Cavs ultimately made what Ainge thought was a better offer .... Maybe you should have a column or pod with Jeremy on the alternate history of the negotiations where KFS as the GM gets the deal done or walks away now we know the final outcome.
Regarding your points:
#1 - You assert that failing to get Mitchell demonstrates the Knicks ability to assess talent is in question. My view is that Mitchell is a star not a superstar. He's someone I would give up a lot (but not everything for). I believe the front office felt the same way. In your post-mortem last week, you said that ultimately you would not have given up RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, three unprotected firsts, two unprotected swaps, a few seconds and a protected first in exchange for Donovan Mitchell. Aren't you basically evaluating Mitchell's talent in the same ballpark as the front office? So, I don't understand why you are saying their ability to evaluate talent is in question? You also say they struck out twice in the last two months (including Ivey). But, they were actually 1-1 getting Brunson as a free agent. Brunson out-played Mitchell in the play-offs. So, worst case, they were 1-3 which gets you into the baseball hall of fame.
#2 - The front office offered RJ in a Mitchell deal because Mitchell is a better player than RJ is right now. I have to believe RJ understands his place in the NBA pecking order. They didn't give RJ a max deal because .... drumrolll ... he isn't a max player yet. They also didn't evaluate him like Seth Partnow would have. If RJ and his agent really thought he was a max player, he could have declined to sign this extension and bet on himself to prove it to the Knicks ala Ayton last year.
#3 I 100% believe the front office was surprised and disappointed. I also believe Steve Mills or Isaiah Thomas would have given up everything Ainge wanted and more to get the deal done. At the end of the day, the front office didn't want to give up what Ainge wanted and ultimately got. Surprise is only a big deal if Leon was actually willing to give up what the Cavs gave up. Your reporting says he wasn't. Of course, it would have been nice if Ainge caved and came groveling back and did the deal at the price Leon wanted to pay. But, the Cavs were willing to pay and we weren't.
#4 - A large part of the draft day maneuvering was to try to get Ivey. When they didn't, they made the trades to clear cap space to sign Brunson. The salary of the draft pick was also a factor in clearing cap space. We ended up getting Brunson -- who outplayed Mitchell in the playoffs -- and 3 future protected FRP's for the various players and the lottery pick. I personally would have preferred to draft someone at 12 and start IQ rather than pursue Brunson. I was disappointed initially but am ok with how the draft day trades went down since we signed Brunson.
To add to your first point I wonder if the Knicks had offered all of that draft capital and say 2 of 3 of Obi, Grimes, or Quickley plus a veteran contract to match salaries (Fournier or Rose)...would have that been enough? Did they even make that offer?...because I thought that was the offer that would get it done...which would be somewhat disappointing if that would have been enough for the Jazz. My rationale side realizes had the Jazz taken that deal it could have hurt the Knicks in the future...still.thought it was worth the risk.
Good points all around. You're right on 2, certainly on 3 (them being better than previous regimes) and of course on 4 (and I'm pro Brunson, so it's an even better point to me than to you probably). I'm having a little trouble following the talent evaluation point on 1...I wouldn't have made the deal because I don't know where that would have left them in terms of having enough assets to improve moving forward. I honestly don't know where I stand on RJ, as far as likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I guess my point is that I wish they're more sure about RJ than I am? Because their best path is if he (and the other younger players) knock it out of the park.
In my opinion the entire FO needs to be reevaluated from top to bottom. Their FA signings have been mostly failures, their draft classes are basically failures, and they cannot be perceived as to have ‘won’ any trades they have made. The coach they selected has not allowed the kids to play to see what they’ve got and the team in general sits in the middle of the pack, which essentially puts them right outside of having a shot to get a top pick.
I’m sure I’ll get some pushback on Rose, I’d agree if he wasn’t hurt all the time. Grimes, but I can’t agree either because I haven’t seen him play enough to agree (summer league doesn’t count). Some of the other other ‘kids’, but again I haven’t seen them play enough AND if they were that good, they’d be in Utah right now.
So, as a long time NYK fan, this may as well be a FO of years past with the only caveat being that they don’t trade away future No. 1’s.
It's reasonable to criticize the FO to some extent but considering the deep hole from which they started I think you should also acknowledge significant progress has been made. Obviously, there is a long way to go to get to being a consistent contender. To recall the bleak starting point ...
The last move of the Phil Jackson / Steve Mills front office was drafting Frank for no obvious reason. The new Mills / Perry front office retained Jeff Hornaceck to coach the team for the 2017-2018 season and brought in scrub Jarret Jack to start rather than developing our new rookie point guard. After the 2017-2018 season, the Mills / Perry front office drafted Kevin Knox and conducted an extensive coaching search (which included passing on Thibs) and deciding instead to hire David Fizdale as the coach. In the ensuing 2018-19 season, it became obvious after about 10 games that Fizdale had no idea how to coach the team (his coaching strategy was showing the team an axe and telling them to keep chopping wood) and the Knicks had the worst record in the NBA. We had bad luck in the lottery, whiffed in free agency, signed a lot of free agent power forwards for no particular reason. It was obvious both Fizdale and Steve Mills had absolutely no idea what they were doing (again) and the team was completely dysfunctional. Both Fizdale and Perry were fired mid-year just before the pandemic was about to start. We were one of the teams not invited to the bubble .... in other words, it was a s____ show.
In comparison, Leon has brought in a head coach and a group of experienced assistant coaches who appear to have achieved (at a minimum) a level of baseline competence. Over the last two seasons, under this front office, the team has been two games over .500 in total and has made the playoffs once. Leon has brought in experienced front office veterans (Brock Aller, Walt Perrin) and recruiters (World Wide Wes). After a sub-par rookie year, RJ has developed and we have drafted and developed promising young players (IQ, Obi, Grimes).
So, to summarize, there has been a winning record, young players have actually been developed, and we have more draft picks than when we started. Again, some other decisions could have been made (particularly last year in free agency) and there is a long way to go for us to become a contender. But, we are not dysfunctional either which is a major step forward that should be recognized.
Well put! I do think we could have done a better job with developing Obi and Quickley but circumstances (Randle and Thibs lack of trust plus wanting a rim protector to play with Randle which Obi at this point is not) led to Obi's lack of playing time....but even with inconsistent playing time I think you can see those two and Grimes are talented and should be given more opportunities to play. I just think most experts around the league are not as impressed with our young guys because of the lack of playing time.
Perhaps I’m overreacting a bit, especially considering how you so graciously reminded me of the massive dumpster fire that was burning on 7th Avenue a few years back. I do agree the moves haven’t been as awful as years past, but IMO they should either embrace a youth movement or go for something bigger. The moves made have again landed the team right in the middle, which is exactly where you don’t want to be. Another year or so should definitely give us an answer either way, I just hope it’s what we’d both presumably like to see - a highly competitive team making it deep into the playoffs because it’s been way too long since we’ve been able to watch that.
You're definitely not off base but I don't think we need to clean house yet. I like Thibs but he may need to go if he can't get on board with the youth movement. I think you're being a little hard on their drafting....definitely don't think they are failures in that area...but they need to play a lot more before you can give the front office a final grade. Free agents and trades outside of Rose and maybe Fournier are less than spectacular. Hopefully this won't be the case with Brunson.
I would like Thibs as well, if the team was further down the road than they are and knew more of what they have. As far as the drafting, I’d like to see much more before I agree, but it still doesn’t bode well if they were willing to send them out so easily, with the exception of Grimes. Not sure I’m on board with the half decent offensive season of EF along with a full bad season on defense. Time will tell.
Do you think 3 unprotected picks and a combination of 2 of Grimes, Obi, Quickley, some veteran to match salaries and some of the unprotected picks would have gotten this deal done? I always thought that's how the deal would have gone down and I would have been okay with that but it would have sucked losing a few young guys...but hey you gotta give to get! Now I don't know if the front office would like a deal like this because it may have stripped them of their assets to make a trade for a second star. Though maybe if they kept some of those unprotected picks one or two would have become rotational players or better...wishful thinking on my part!
Sep 5, 2022·edited Sep 5, 2022Liked by Jonathan Macri
....but man do I think they missed the boat on drafting Obi instead of Halliburton (who I wasn't even a fan of but what do I know!) and with all the wheeling and dealing of late round picks Leon has done...imagine they would have found a way of getting Bane in that draft too. I was big fan of him especially after Jon interviewed him!
If they had those guys...Ainge would be foaming at the mouth to get them....but he'd still ask for 10 unprotected 1st round picks!.....and if we did draft those two (Hali and Bane)...I would think the Knicks front office wouldn't even have dreams of a Mitchell deal!
I’m fine with it, Danny Ainge’s entire strategy was to make NY bid against themselves, and if not getting Mitchell is the price you have to pay to break that reputation around the league, then that’s what you have to do. The Yankees had to go through a period like this, where everyone in baseball held out because they knew Steinbrenner would overrule the front office and give away the store, which is the same thing Dolan has done for years.
This is actually good, we are probably a better team without the trade than with it. With Kemba Walker gone and Fournier either gone or reduced to 20 min a night the defense won’t be a sieve anymore, and we will more be in line with the team we were 2 years ago.
Think of it this way, the difference between Boston two years ago and last year was getting the defensive liability of Walker and Fournier off their roster. Not saying we are a 50 win team yet, but I feel we are a winning team, right now I feel we can win 42-45 games.
People might laugh at that, but this time a year ago people would have laughed if you said the Celtics would be in the finals.
I wouldn’t be against moving Randal, Redish, and Fournier to the Lakers for Westbrook. It clears money, clears PT for Obi, clears shots for everybody, and you pick up some picks as well, even if they are protected, which if you agree to pick protections probably gets the Lakers to pull the trigger. Whatever you get out of Westbrook is gravy, taking him in is more about the cap space, and that still puts the Knicks in the position where they can make moves, and they are still one move away.
I'm not laughing at it at all. Heck, if RJ takes a step up and Brunson is as good as I know HE thinks he can be with a bigger role, there is a possibility that VERY good things can be on the horizon. I'd also do those 3 for Russ and whatever draft equity I could get in a heartbeat.
“... front office who so flagrantly laid bare its intentions by showing up at Game 1 of Utah / Dallas, why, that was just the cherry on top.” Interesting thought. My assumption was that they were there to watch Brunson and maybe try to pedal Randall should the opportunity have arisen.
Can we begin by saying that Ainge took a vastly inferior package from Cleveland than anything NY was offering? Whatever we may think of RJ as a star or potential star, I think it’s fair to say he’s better than any of Lauri, Sexton, or Agbaji. Arguably all the young players the Knicks offered are better than what Cle offered - hell, Q was a better defensive player as a rookie than Sexton has been ever.
As for picks, 2 unprotected picks or 2 unprotected and a 3rd lightly protected pick from NY is likely to be vastly more valuable than 5 picks from a team with 3 all stars and the ROY runner up, who is already looking like a potential all star and perennial DPOY candidate, giving them 4 all star level players. Add to that our beloved team’s propensity to, shall we say, underperform, the much smarter bet for landing a lottery pick is to get NY’s picks. It would take a melt down of colossal proportions for Cle to be a lottery team again in 4 years. I think the appropriate phrase here is: it could happen, but it’s not the way to bet.
So Ainge took a substantially worse package from Cleveland. So, did Leon lose the negotiation? Or was he negotiating with a nut case? Ainge’s asking price was too high and he wouldn’t budge. From a basketball perspective Mitchell was a good but not great fit. So I’m not sure Leon lost the negotiation at all, and I kinda wish there was more talk about the fact that turning down those Knick offers for Cleveland’s poo-poo patter of 5 picks in the mid to late 20s was completely nuts. I think Ainge took a lesser package, for whatever reason.
Wrt Leon hanging his players out to dry in the media afterward: maybe. Wrt talent evaluation: I’ve complain about NYs shitty talent evaluation for years. Too much gut, not enough analytics, not enough thoughtful roster construction. I love IQ but Bane was a vastly better payer, and the analytics crowd knew it. I love Obi, but from a roster construction perspective we should’ve picked TyHal.
Executives have learning curves too. Thibs loves vets, so Leon gave him vets. The vets shit the bed in year 2 but Thibs played them anyway, making talent evaluation vastly more difficult. So in the off-season, Leon got rid of as many vets as possible, saving only D Rose & trying desperately to unload ALL the rest, Thibs favorites or no. This feels to me a bit like an executive learning the job, while occupying arguably the toughest job in basketball .
Next, he’ll hire more analytics geeks and draft better.
This year’s best case: RJ makes the leap, JB plays at near all star levels, Obi turns into Amar’e 2.0 with a better 3 pointer, and the kids get enough playing time for us to get clearer on what we have and what we need. Worst case: we suck , get one more high draft pick, and this time we get it right.
Thanks so much for this comment Marcus, you make excellent points. I'm obviously pro-Thibs. You say that "Thibs loves vets, so Leon gave him vets." I'd just add that Leon loved the idea of winning games sooner rather than later, which is why Thibs is the coach. He also doesn't need to continue to be the coach if the organizational priorities have changed to the degree that playing youth is SO important to Leon that he no longer feels he can take the risk that Thibs might not play them enough (sorry for that terrible sentence, but you get the point). Re: comparison of the package, I think it really does come down to the future draft equity in 2026-2029. If Ainge things Mitchell leaves in 2025, I think there's a real argument in favor of the Cavs package given that NY's picks and swaps, as I understand it, were in 2023-2026. I adore Garland and Mobley, but that isa historically bad organization who can probably find a way to mess things up, even with those 2 young guys there. In any case, it's debatable. Great comment all around.
Great article, JMac! I agree with much of it. One area where I will slightly disagree - I think the capacity for this front office to make evaluations has been in question since at least the 2021 off-season and arguably since their first season (the no fans, pandemic season).
Their mistakes in my view, which I called at the time I feel comfortable saying it’s not hindsight:
1) Toppin over Haliburton in their first draft. Toppin is a nice piece, Haliburton is the type of player you build around in the modern NBA. I screamed in agony when they didn’t take him in draft night. Obi seems like a wonderful guy… just not sure I see him starting on a playoffs team.
2) Not trading Randle when he started the pandemic season hot. Instead acquiring DRose. Knicks were 11-14, in a season with no fans in the building. And the 2021 draft was loaded. It was the perfect time to tank. Dump Randle, don’t trade for Rose and we have a chance at a top five pick in a draft that featured Cade, Green, Barnes, Mobley, and Suggs. Bonus points - we could’ve started evaluating Obi and RJ as offensive focal points that much sooner. It was Rose’s first season, he should have absolutely maximized the best asset he had at that point - his own 2021 draft pick. I said this at the time. It was a huge miscalculation imho.
3) The 2021 off-season. Doubling down on Randle’s fluky shooting in empty gyms to add terrible contracts. I said it at the time on your show via super chats, etc. Fournier contract was horrible - he plays no defense at all and basically signed for a similar deal as Lonzo Ball did, who is much better value even with the injuries. Kemba contract was a huge gamble, guaranteeing the second year cost them a first to unload his albatross. Not to mention they re-upped on Randle, which took about a month of play in the 21-22 season to feel like a terrible move.
4) Opportunity cost in the draft in 2021 and 2022. They unloaded their 19th overall pick, punting for a future Charlotte pick, which they then turned into Cam. One problem - their coach wasn’t on the same page and had no desire to play Cam. A guy who essentially plays the same position as Fournier btw. It is insane to me that they’re already out on Cam. Insane. But they seem to be ready to dump him. Then in the 2022, as mentioned, they had to dump the 11th overall pick to unload Kemba. Yes, they got back three protected firsts… but we’ve seen the value of those is low. Did those three firsts have as much value as Ochai Agbaji? It sure doesn’t seem like it.
I am very down on the big picture evaluations this front office has made. They’ve been conservative, which I appreciate in comparison to the Isiah regime… but when I look at the big picture roster evaluations and roster construction decisions… I have serious doubts. The single best thing this front office could have done would’ve been to tank in 2021. Imagine a core of Haliburton, RJ, and Mobley-or-Barnes right now? That’s a team that you feel comfortable giving up picks and adding Mitchell to. Keeping Randle in 2021 and then doubling down and signing him long-term feel like hugely terrible decisions.
I’ll still root hard for the boys. I’m excited to see Jalen Brunson. But we could have such a drastically different team right now and it kills me.
In a slightly different reality we have:
PG - Haliburton
SG - Mitchell
SF- RJ
PF - Mobley or Barnes
C - Mitch
I won’t even get into the talk about how terrible the 2017 and 2018 lotto picks Perry and Mills made. Those picks were also horrendous and set us back years. And Perry is still here, though it’s unclear what he does, since Windhorst reported Gerson Rosas was the one making calls to Utah on the Mitchell trade.
I have serious doubts about this front office going forward. Though even if we’d gotten Mitchell, I’d have serious doubts about them as well. To me the decisions made in 2021 during the season and off-season wrote the book for how the Mitchell negotiations would go and what type of team we could surround him with. Anyway. Moving on.
This is so smart. Toppin over Haliburton is the difference between DM being a Knick or not, plain and simple (if they even feel they still need DM as badly in that scenario, which, who knows). I've made the "they should have traded Randle when they were 11-14" point on the pod before and it's a great one. The dysfunction of the entire Cam acquisition should be blatantly obvious by this point. I love IQ, but even bypassing Bane is not great either. Wouldn't have been a stretch to pick him at all.
I think I disagree your take a couple times in this article. One Leon was brought here to make the team better. You can’t have 12 rookies trying to prove they are more then just a role players and win games. That’s just the way it works. They have not done a good job show casing there youth while trying to keep a blanche. While trying to keep a balance the team has accumulated assets to potentially use in trades. I think the take that says the job is to eventually trade for a star is off. They have assets and will look to make trades that make the team better. That doesn’t have to be big a block buster for ready made star. Second I don’t think Barrett is the best prospect on this team. I think it’s a legitimate opinion but and I don’t think he has done anything to make that a forgone conclusion at this point. Thanks for read and happy Labor Day
Of course, and thanks for the comment! I guess I just always revert to looking around the league and asking myself "how many of these teams have a path in front of them that is clearer than the Knicks" and my answer is something around 20, if not closer to 25. That's ultimately what spurred the letter, but I understand your points 100%.
As far as Barrett...why can't he turn into our version of Jimmy Butler? I think he is on his way to being that type of player! Remember Jimmy Butler wasn't Jimmy Butler until 3 or 4 years into his career! At this point that's the only thing I can hope for after losing out on Mitchell!
My ONLY hesitation here is that Jimmy is known to be a Kobe/MJ level worker. NOT saying RJ doesn't put in the time, but does he do it to such an insane degree as Jimmy? Maybe he doesn't need to though because he's got more ability to begin with. Either way, Jimmy has always been my ceiling comp for RJ, so I agree to some extent.
you make great points. I struggle with this stuff - the q's about whether more time would make them better assets. I don't pretend to know the right answer. Anyway, sorry for the unpleasant newsletter!
We'll see, you might be right. I'll just add that if Leon doesn't feel Thibs fits his strategy, he should probably let him go. If he feels he isn't the coach for this team and elects to keep him regardless, this would seem to be a reflection on Leon being fearful of his own job security, because as a POBO, once you fire a coach, the clock starts ticking.
Maybe your best newsletter yet on a topic I don’t want to read and yet can’t stop myself. There are four other reasons to be very concerned about the Rose regime:
1. The Knicks were arrogant: not only were they sure they could put together the best package, they made sure it was broadcasted. So Ainge had every emotional motive to trade Mitchell anywhere but NY. And that arrogance led the, to make the deal killing assumption, that the Jazz would bring the Cavs’ offer back to the Knicks. I am sure the Cavs said, take it or leave it and you may not shop it.
2. The Knicks got too cute. Every fan knows that you are going to give more than you want for a superstar. The Knicks thought they could have their cake and eat it too. And again, Ainge was more than pleased to take the Cavs offer and not deal with the Knicks.
3. This one hurts the most. The Knicks told their fans that the fans are wrong. They took a guy -- RJ who many fans were optimistic about and basically said, the fans were wrong, he is no star, he never will be a star. So now the fans either believe they are wrong or the Knicks are wrong. The Knicks being wrong means that RJ is just another player, one the Knicks don’t place high value. Thus, the fans should not either. Or you are like me and still have confidence in RJ developing into a star and now They question the intelligence of the Knicks front office.
4. Rose lost the negotiation. Hell, Rose was not here because he was a sharp evaluator of talent, he was brought here to get stars in the building and as a former agent, he would be a slick and smart negotiator.
Now the question is, “why is Rose the President of the Knicks.
So to some it up, we did not get the star we were promised, we wasted the 11th pick in the draft; the players we were all excited about Knick management is not; and hell’s bells, the least favorite Knick of the past 25 years is still on the team.
It feels very bleak around the Knicks and I think many (including myself) believe the Rose regime needs to go and they need to bring in an insider like the Nets did with Sean Marks or the Jazz just did with Ainge. The Knicks need to reset.
I want to believe the front office values Barrett and thinks he has the potential to be a star or at the very least a Robin to someone's Batman but also willing to deal him if it meant they could get Mitchell and hold on to some of their unprotected picks....but for the life of me I don't understand why the Knicks would leak (if it was the Knicks) offering 3 unprotected plus Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and Obi. I thought they didn't want to give up 3 unprotected picks and if they did why not do that plus leaving Barrett out?...which I thought was how this deal would eventually go down.
Man oh man, now I'm even more down on them than I already was! Your point about why is Leon here and not someone who has actually proven to have a track record in THIS particular job is one I could not bring myself to ask, but it has to be in the back of our minds. Masai was the rumored target, he went with Leon instead. We all know why that was at the time. Do we still? Alas, I can't call for a reset yet. Let's see how this season plays out. But I may be joining you by next summer.
Another phenomenal read!
I think you touched on basically all the points that needed to be covered, except for one: Leon and his background. At the end of the day, Leon is an agent. He’s not a FO executive and was never one until he joined the Knicks. This is not me putting down his credentials, I am simply pointing out that agents tend to view things and then subsequently act differently, then what we know as “normal FO executives”. I would like to clarify that I am clearly not an agent so I cannot speak to how they might view things in a different manner. However, in saying that, it might not be a coincidence that the Knicks and Lakers both had agents at the helm of their organization making decisions during their failed pursuits of Mitchell and (the initial failed pursuit of) AD, which as you point out are quite similar in a number of ways. Also, it would be quite interesting if we were to find out the opinions of one of our other FO members who actually had history as a FO executive, say Scott Perry, to see what his thoughts were about this potential trade, and to see if he was onboard with all the speculated proposals and ideas. Basically, I would love to know if this seemingly relentless pursuit of Mitchell, at least from the willingness to trade and table all the young players point of view, was driven by Leon and Wes, or from the more experienced FO members. Would love to hear any thoughts!
you nailed it Jonas. I try to keep the newsletter to only what I can justify with evidence, and I don't feel I have the evidence to suggest that as an agent, he went about this the wrong way, but that is my opinion, and I think Windy said it best when he said that you can know this business inside and out, but until you've done it, it doesn't mean much, and it is VERY hard to land the plane in these negotiations. Seasoned guys are able to do it. Leon could not.
Well then going off what you said, here's my question: How does Leon gain the experience that is needed for the job? In order to do so, he certainly needs to play a bigger part than simply directing and observing from the sideline, and actually go out and do stuff, right? But then why was Rosas leading the negotiations for Mitchell during trade talks with the Jazz, if said report is true. How can Leon realistically become one of those seasoned guys if he is not getting his hands dirty while relying on others to do his bidding? That to me does not seem like a recipe for success. I get the idea of trying to create an FO that has a little bit of everything, with specialists in each field who each have a prominent voice and say, all reporting to an overarching authority, don't get me wrong. But to me, that looks and feels too much like a presidential cabinet and not a traditional NBA FO. And I genuinely feel that Leon is attempting to act from a good place with good intentions. But the processes and outcomes resulting from all of his actions (or lack of actions) are pilling up on the negative side, speaking for themselves, and doing the talking.
Maybe he feels like he never has to be the one on the phone. I honestly don't know. I love the cabinet comp, it seems apt. I also agree it comes from a good place, but in practicality it may not be tenable. Well said all around
a lot of the reporting on the deal seems contradictory. here's my take on how it went down.
> Ainge opened the negotiations asking for the moon -- RJ, Mitch, OBI and three UP firsts and more
> Leon said no way and resigned Mitch
> Leon countered with a pick heavy deal not including RJ
> Ainge said he needed RJ in the deal
> Leon told Bill Duffy the situation and said knicks would prefer to sign RJ at 100-120 mil b4 camp
> Duffy got word to Ainge that RJ wasnt playing in UTA for less than the full max
> Ainge called Duffy's bluff because he knew he could redirect RJ to a third team for a boatload
> Ainge continued to insist the knicks include their best asset - RJ
> Leon relents and tells Ainge he can have RJ but only 2 future picks not three and nothing else.
> Ainge insists on three picks and more assets WITH RJ
> Leon says no deal he's signing RJ long term.
> RJ signs long term so Ainge turns to Cavs.
with this TL Leon used the leverage of UTA wanting RJ ( at least as an asset to redirect) to get RJ for a less than FULL max deal.
the whole part of Leon valuing Q Grimes as untouchable but willing to offer RJ in any deal sounds far fetched or made up. i think the demands for RJ came from UTA -- Ainge was not doing a deal without the KNICKS best asset.. was it spite for showing up at the playoffs? maybe.. but AINGE wanted players HE liked.. REMEMBER he liked Sexton A LOT.. and getting sexton to agree to 4/75 was better for Ainge than getting RJ who would not want to play in UTA.
so we move on. hopefully knicks find a taker for Randle and Ev .. Randle more urgently.
This is very smart. I think the pivot point is really how much did the Knicks actually want to deal away RJ. What you do a great job of is explaining why, regardless of the reporting, Ainge certainly wanted RJ...HOWEVER he clearly didn't view him as a future no doubt about it star player (or, I suppose, didn't think he could find another team who would view him as such and b willing to put their money - picks - where there mouth was). If he did, I *think*, he'd have made more of an effort to take one of the RJ-centric deals before the deadline. I might be off here, but would love your thoughts.
thanks man keep up the great work.
i think -- and again this is complete speculation -- that RJ's AGENT Duffy didnt want RJ in UTA for less than the FULL MAX and AINGE viewed Sexton at 4/75 as a better asset than RJ at 4/XXX . Also, as i wrote below, RJ was certainly a player other teams coveted.. i mean how could he not be? anyone who watched him this year could see the leap he made.. and how much MORE there is in upside..
just spit balling but wouldnt OKC or Memphis or New Orleans give up whatever they could to get RJ Barrett even if they had to pay him a full max.? also would toronto give up MAJOR assets to bring RJ home? OF COURSE
I guess it comes down to this: how confident was Ainge that he could find a team that would give up 2 distant future unprotected firsts for RJ? And would it matter to him what the team was? Would he have been ok with the picks coming from the Raptors, who currently employ the best hoops exec in the sport? Or OKC, who seems to be building something that will be a powerhouse once they actually decide to start winning games? IDK...
I'd probably feel better knowing that Ainge insisted on RJ as I didn't want him traded but all of the rumors before everything went down was that the Knicks could get a deal done without trading Barrett and also that Ainge didn't even want Barrett. Was any of that even true...if it were I might have been willing to part with 3 unprotected picks for a player like Mitchell...just don't know how you get another star with all or most of your trade assets gone in a deal with the Jazz. I would have been okay with that (obviously the Knicks were not!) and my hope would be that Barrett becomes that star and Brunson continues to improve as well....realistically that doesn't win you a title but we are no where near that with this roster without a trade...basically stuck in mediocrity.
i bet New Orleans would have sent a TON of assets, including unprotected pics, to the JAZZ to pair RJ with his old buddy Zion. Ainge probably didnt "want" RJ but wanted to move him somewhere else. if Agent Duffy was playing hard ball on the contract extension with the Jazz then that fits..
Well, that was not depressing at all.
Seems like everyone I root for is bad at talent evaluation to some degree, but the Knicks might have made a confused art form of not knowing what they are doing. And yet I still want to see what this team does. More fool me.
Fool me and you both. Nice to be in good company :)
Jon - You started off summarizing that the Knicks attempted to complete the trade on their own terms and weren't willing to relent giving Ainge what he wanted.... and that's why the deal didn't get done ... I understand you are bummed but I think the front office was aggressive making a bunch of strong offers in various configurations and the Cavs ultimately made what Ainge thought was a better offer .... Maybe you should have a column or pod with Jeremy on the alternate history of the negotiations where KFS as the GM gets the deal done or walks away now we know the final outcome.
Regarding your points:
#1 - You assert that failing to get Mitchell demonstrates the Knicks ability to assess talent is in question. My view is that Mitchell is a star not a superstar. He's someone I would give up a lot (but not everything for). I believe the front office felt the same way. In your post-mortem last week, you said that ultimately you would not have given up RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, three unprotected firsts, two unprotected swaps, a few seconds and a protected first in exchange for Donovan Mitchell. Aren't you basically evaluating Mitchell's talent in the same ballpark as the front office? So, I don't understand why you are saying their ability to evaluate talent is in question? You also say they struck out twice in the last two months (including Ivey). But, they were actually 1-1 getting Brunson as a free agent. Brunson out-played Mitchell in the play-offs. So, worst case, they were 1-3 which gets you into the baseball hall of fame.
#2 - The front office offered RJ in a Mitchell deal because Mitchell is a better player than RJ is right now. I have to believe RJ understands his place in the NBA pecking order. They didn't give RJ a max deal because .... drumrolll ... he isn't a max player yet. They also didn't evaluate him like Seth Partnow would have. If RJ and his agent really thought he was a max player, he could have declined to sign this extension and bet on himself to prove it to the Knicks ala Ayton last year.
#3 I 100% believe the front office was surprised and disappointed. I also believe Steve Mills or Isaiah Thomas would have given up everything Ainge wanted and more to get the deal done. At the end of the day, the front office didn't want to give up what Ainge wanted and ultimately got. Surprise is only a big deal if Leon was actually willing to give up what the Cavs gave up. Your reporting says he wasn't. Of course, it would have been nice if Ainge caved and came groveling back and did the deal at the price Leon wanted to pay. But, the Cavs were willing to pay and we weren't.
#4 - A large part of the draft day maneuvering was to try to get Ivey. When they didn't, they made the trades to clear cap space to sign Brunson. The salary of the draft pick was also a factor in clearing cap space. We ended up getting Brunson -- who outplayed Mitchell in the playoffs -- and 3 future protected FRP's for the various players and the lottery pick. I personally would have preferred to draft someone at 12 and start IQ rather than pursue Brunson. I was disappointed initially but am ok with how the draft day trades went down since we signed Brunson.
To add to your first point I wonder if the Knicks had offered all of that draft capital and say 2 of 3 of Obi, Grimes, or Quickley plus a veteran contract to match salaries (Fournier or Rose)...would have that been enough? Did they even make that offer?...because I thought that was the offer that would get it done...which would be somewhat disappointing if that would have been enough for the Jazz. My rationale side realizes had the Jazz taken that deal it could have hurt the Knicks in the future...still.thought it was worth the risk.
Good points all around. You're right on 2, certainly on 3 (them being better than previous regimes) and of course on 4 (and I'm pro Brunson, so it's an even better point to me than to you probably). I'm having a little trouble following the talent evaluation point on 1...I wouldn't have made the deal because I don't know where that would have left them in terms of having enough assets to improve moving forward. I honestly don't know where I stand on RJ, as far as likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I guess my point is that I wish they're more sure about RJ than I am? Because their best path is if he (and the other younger players) knock it out of the park.
In my opinion the entire FO needs to be reevaluated from top to bottom. Their FA signings have been mostly failures, their draft classes are basically failures, and they cannot be perceived as to have ‘won’ any trades they have made. The coach they selected has not allowed the kids to play to see what they’ve got and the team in general sits in the middle of the pack, which essentially puts them right outside of having a shot to get a top pick.
I’m sure I’ll get some pushback on Rose, I’d agree if he wasn’t hurt all the time. Grimes, but I can’t agree either because I haven’t seen him play enough to agree (summer league doesn’t count). Some of the other other ‘kids’, but again I haven’t seen them play enough AND if they were that good, they’d be in Utah right now.
So, as a long time NYK fan, this may as well be a FO of years past with the only caveat being that they don’t trade away future No. 1’s.
It's reasonable to criticize the FO to some extent but considering the deep hole from which they started I think you should also acknowledge significant progress has been made. Obviously, there is a long way to go to get to being a consistent contender. To recall the bleak starting point ...
The last move of the Phil Jackson / Steve Mills front office was drafting Frank for no obvious reason. The new Mills / Perry front office retained Jeff Hornaceck to coach the team for the 2017-2018 season and brought in scrub Jarret Jack to start rather than developing our new rookie point guard. After the 2017-2018 season, the Mills / Perry front office drafted Kevin Knox and conducted an extensive coaching search (which included passing on Thibs) and deciding instead to hire David Fizdale as the coach. In the ensuing 2018-19 season, it became obvious after about 10 games that Fizdale had no idea how to coach the team (his coaching strategy was showing the team an axe and telling them to keep chopping wood) and the Knicks had the worst record in the NBA. We had bad luck in the lottery, whiffed in free agency, signed a lot of free agent power forwards for no particular reason. It was obvious both Fizdale and Steve Mills had absolutely no idea what they were doing (again) and the team was completely dysfunctional. Both Fizdale and Perry were fired mid-year just before the pandemic was about to start. We were one of the teams not invited to the bubble .... in other words, it was a s____ show.
In comparison, Leon has brought in a head coach and a group of experienced assistant coaches who appear to have achieved (at a minimum) a level of baseline competence. Over the last two seasons, under this front office, the team has been two games over .500 in total and has made the playoffs once. Leon has brought in experienced front office veterans (Brock Aller, Walt Perrin) and recruiters (World Wide Wes). After a sub-par rookie year, RJ has developed and we have drafted and developed promising young players (IQ, Obi, Grimes).
So, to summarize, there has been a winning record, young players have actually been developed, and we have more draft picks than when we started. Again, some other decisions could have been made (particularly last year in free agency) and there is a long way to go for us to become a contender. But, we are not dysfunctional either which is a major step forward that should be recognized.
Well put! I do think we could have done a better job with developing Obi and Quickley but circumstances (Randle and Thibs lack of trust plus wanting a rim protector to play with Randle which Obi at this point is not) led to Obi's lack of playing time....but even with inconsistent playing time I think you can see those two and Grimes are talented and should be given more opportunities to play. I just think most experts around the league are not as impressed with our young guys because of the lack of playing time.
Perhaps I’m overreacting a bit, especially considering how you so graciously reminded me of the massive dumpster fire that was burning on 7th Avenue a few years back. I do agree the moves haven’t been as awful as years past, but IMO they should either embrace a youth movement or go for something bigger. The moves made have again landed the team right in the middle, which is exactly where you don’t want to be. Another year or so should definitely give us an answer either way, I just hope it’s what we’d both presumably like to see - a highly competitive team making it deep into the playoffs because it’s been way too long since we’ve been able to watch that.
You're definitely not off base but I don't think we need to clean house yet. I like Thibs but he may need to go if he can't get on board with the youth movement. I think you're being a little hard on their drafting....definitely don't think they are failures in that area...but they need to play a lot more before you can give the front office a final grade. Free agents and trades outside of Rose and maybe Fournier are less than spectacular. Hopefully this won't be the case with Brunson.
I would like Thibs as well, if the team was further down the road than they are and knew more of what they have. As far as the drafting, I’d like to see much more before I agree, but it still doesn’t bode well if they were willing to send them out so easily, with the exception of Grimes. Not sure I’m on board with the half decent offensive season of EF along with a full bad season on defense. Time will tell.
Do you think 3 unprotected picks and a combination of 2 of Grimes, Obi, Quickley, some veteran to match salaries and some of the unprotected picks would have gotten this deal done? I always thought that's how the deal would have gone down and I would have been okay with that but it would have sucked losing a few young guys...but hey you gotta give to get! Now I don't know if the front office would like a deal like this because it may have stripped them of their assets to make a trade for a second star. Though maybe if they kept some of those unprotected picks one or two would have become rotational players or better...wishful thinking on my part!
....but man do I think they missed the boat on drafting Obi instead of Halliburton (who I wasn't even a fan of but what do I know!) and with all the wheeling and dealing of late round picks Leon has done...imagine they would have found a way of getting Bane in that draft too. I was big fan of him especially after Jon interviewed him!
Super nice guy!
Sad truth is that if the Knicks had Hali or Bane, this negotiation is a breeze.
If they had those guys...Ainge would be foaming at the mouth to get them....but he'd still ask for 10 unprotected 1st round picks!.....and if we did draft those two (Hali and Bane)...I would think the Knicks front office wouldn't even have dreams of a Mitchell deal!
Personally yes I do.
I’m fine with it, Danny Ainge’s entire strategy was to make NY bid against themselves, and if not getting Mitchell is the price you have to pay to break that reputation around the league, then that’s what you have to do. The Yankees had to go through a period like this, where everyone in baseball held out because they knew Steinbrenner would overrule the front office and give away the store, which is the same thing Dolan has done for years.
This is actually good, we are probably a better team without the trade than with it. With Kemba Walker gone and Fournier either gone or reduced to 20 min a night the defense won’t be a sieve anymore, and we will more be in line with the team we were 2 years ago.
Think of it this way, the difference between Boston two years ago and last year was getting the defensive liability of Walker and Fournier off their roster. Not saying we are a 50 win team yet, but I feel we are a winning team, right now I feel we can win 42-45 games.
People might laugh at that, but this time a year ago people would have laughed if you said the Celtics would be in the finals.
I wouldn’t be against moving Randal, Redish, and Fournier to the Lakers for Westbrook. It clears money, clears PT for Obi, clears shots for everybody, and you pick up some picks as well, even if they are protected, which if you agree to pick protections probably gets the Lakers to pull the trigger. Whatever you get out of Westbrook is gravy, taking him in is more about the cap space, and that still puts the Knicks in the position where they can make moves, and they are still one move away.
I'm not laughing at it at all. Heck, if RJ takes a step up and Brunson is as good as I know HE thinks he can be with a bigger role, there is a possibility that VERY good things can be on the horizon. I'd also do those 3 for Russ and whatever draft equity I could get in a heartbeat.
“... front office who so flagrantly laid bare its intentions by showing up at Game 1 of Utah / Dallas, why, that was just the cherry on top.” Interesting thought. My assumption was that they were there to watch Brunson and maybe try to pedal Randall should the opportunity have arisen.
This has been a topic of discussion, as I understand it, throughout the league since it happened.
I’m super conflicted about all of this.
Can we begin by saying that Ainge took a vastly inferior package from Cleveland than anything NY was offering? Whatever we may think of RJ as a star or potential star, I think it’s fair to say he’s better than any of Lauri, Sexton, or Agbaji. Arguably all the young players the Knicks offered are better than what Cle offered - hell, Q was a better defensive player as a rookie than Sexton has been ever.
As for picks, 2 unprotected picks or 2 unprotected and a 3rd lightly protected pick from NY is likely to be vastly more valuable than 5 picks from a team with 3 all stars and the ROY runner up, who is already looking like a potential all star and perennial DPOY candidate, giving them 4 all star level players. Add to that our beloved team’s propensity to, shall we say, underperform, the much smarter bet for landing a lottery pick is to get NY’s picks. It would take a melt down of colossal proportions for Cle to be a lottery team again in 4 years. I think the appropriate phrase here is: it could happen, but it’s not the way to bet.
So Ainge took a substantially worse package from Cleveland. So, did Leon lose the negotiation? Or was he negotiating with a nut case? Ainge’s asking price was too high and he wouldn’t budge. From a basketball perspective Mitchell was a good but not great fit. So I’m not sure Leon lost the negotiation at all, and I kinda wish there was more talk about the fact that turning down those Knick offers for Cleveland’s poo-poo patter of 5 picks in the mid to late 20s was completely nuts. I think Ainge took a lesser package, for whatever reason.
Wrt Leon hanging his players out to dry in the media afterward: maybe. Wrt talent evaluation: I’ve complain about NYs shitty talent evaluation for years. Too much gut, not enough analytics, not enough thoughtful roster construction. I love IQ but Bane was a vastly better payer, and the analytics crowd knew it. I love Obi, but from a roster construction perspective we should’ve picked TyHal.
Executives have learning curves too. Thibs loves vets, so Leon gave him vets. The vets shit the bed in year 2 but Thibs played them anyway, making talent evaluation vastly more difficult. So in the off-season, Leon got rid of as many vets as possible, saving only D Rose & trying desperately to unload ALL the rest, Thibs favorites or no. This feels to me a bit like an executive learning the job, while occupying arguably the toughest job in basketball .
Next, he’ll hire more analytics geeks and draft better.
This year’s best case: RJ makes the leap, JB plays at near all star levels, Obi turns into Amar’e 2.0 with a better 3 pointer, and the kids get enough playing time for us to get clearer on what we have and what we need. Worst case: we suck , get one more high draft pick, and this time we get it right.
Thanks so much for this comment Marcus, you make excellent points. I'm obviously pro-Thibs. You say that "Thibs loves vets, so Leon gave him vets." I'd just add that Leon loved the idea of winning games sooner rather than later, which is why Thibs is the coach. He also doesn't need to continue to be the coach if the organizational priorities have changed to the degree that playing youth is SO important to Leon that he no longer feels he can take the risk that Thibs might not play them enough (sorry for that terrible sentence, but you get the point). Re: comparison of the package, I think it really does come down to the future draft equity in 2026-2029. If Ainge things Mitchell leaves in 2025, I think there's a real argument in favor of the Cavs package given that NY's picks and swaps, as I understand it, were in 2023-2026. I adore Garland and Mobley, but that isa historically bad organization who can probably find a way to mess things up, even with those 2 young guys there. In any case, it's debatable. Great comment all around.
Great article, JMac! I agree with much of it. One area where I will slightly disagree - I think the capacity for this front office to make evaluations has been in question since at least the 2021 off-season and arguably since their first season (the no fans, pandemic season).
Their mistakes in my view, which I called at the time I feel comfortable saying it’s not hindsight:
1) Toppin over Haliburton in their first draft. Toppin is a nice piece, Haliburton is the type of player you build around in the modern NBA. I screamed in agony when they didn’t take him in draft night. Obi seems like a wonderful guy… just not sure I see him starting on a playoffs team.
2) Not trading Randle when he started the pandemic season hot. Instead acquiring DRose. Knicks were 11-14, in a season with no fans in the building. And the 2021 draft was loaded. It was the perfect time to tank. Dump Randle, don’t trade for Rose and we have a chance at a top five pick in a draft that featured Cade, Green, Barnes, Mobley, and Suggs. Bonus points - we could’ve started evaluating Obi and RJ as offensive focal points that much sooner. It was Rose’s first season, he should have absolutely maximized the best asset he had at that point - his own 2021 draft pick. I said this at the time. It was a huge miscalculation imho.
3) The 2021 off-season. Doubling down on Randle’s fluky shooting in empty gyms to add terrible contracts. I said it at the time on your show via super chats, etc. Fournier contract was horrible - he plays no defense at all and basically signed for a similar deal as Lonzo Ball did, who is much better value even with the injuries. Kemba contract was a huge gamble, guaranteeing the second year cost them a first to unload his albatross. Not to mention they re-upped on Randle, which took about a month of play in the 21-22 season to feel like a terrible move.
4) Opportunity cost in the draft in 2021 and 2022. They unloaded their 19th overall pick, punting for a future Charlotte pick, which they then turned into Cam. One problem - their coach wasn’t on the same page and had no desire to play Cam. A guy who essentially plays the same position as Fournier btw. It is insane to me that they’re already out on Cam. Insane. But they seem to be ready to dump him. Then in the 2022, as mentioned, they had to dump the 11th overall pick to unload Kemba. Yes, they got back three protected firsts… but we’ve seen the value of those is low. Did those three firsts have as much value as Ochai Agbaji? It sure doesn’t seem like it.
I am very down on the big picture evaluations this front office has made. They’ve been conservative, which I appreciate in comparison to the Isiah regime… but when I look at the big picture roster evaluations and roster construction decisions… I have serious doubts. The single best thing this front office could have done would’ve been to tank in 2021. Imagine a core of Haliburton, RJ, and Mobley-or-Barnes right now? That’s a team that you feel comfortable giving up picks and adding Mitchell to. Keeping Randle in 2021 and then doubling down and signing him long-term feel like hugely terrible decisions.
I’ll still root hard for the boys. I’m excited to see Jalen Brunson. But we could have such a drastically different team right now and it kills me.
In a slightly different reality we have:
PG - Haliburton
SG - Mitchell
SF- RJ
PF - Mobley or Barnes
C - Mitch
I won’t even get into the talk about how terrible the 2017 and 2018 lotto picks Perry and Mills made. Those picks were also horrendous and set us back years. And Perry is still here, though it’s unclear what he does, since Windhorst reported Gerson Rosas was the one making calls to Utah on the Mitchell trade.
I have serious doubts about this front office going forward. Though even if we’d gotten Mitchell, I’d have serious doubts about them as well. To me the decisions made in 2021 during the season and off-season wrote the book for how the Mitchell negotiations would go and what type of team we could surround him with. Anyway. Moving on.
This is so smart. Toppin over Haliburton is the difference between DM being a Knick or not, plain and simple (if they even feel they still need DM as badly in that scenario, which, who knows). I've made the "they should have traded Randle when they were 11-14" point on the pod before and it's a great one. The dysfunction of the entire Cam acquisition should be blatantly obvious by this point. I love IQ, but even bypassing Bane is not great either. Wouldn't have been a stretch to pick him at all.
I think I disagree your take a couple times in this article. One Leon was brought here to make the team better. You can’t have 12 rookies trying to prove they are more then just a role players and win games. That’s just the way it works. They have not done a good job show casing there youth while trying to keep a blanche. While trying to keep a balance the team has accumulated assets to potentially use in trades. I think the take that says the job is to eventually trade for a star is off. They have assets and will look to make trades that make the team better. That doesn’t have to be big a block buster for ready made star. Second I don’t think Barrett is the best prospect on this team. I think it’s a legitimate opinion but and I don’t think he has done anything to make that a forgone conclusion at this point. Thanks for read and happy Labor Day
Of course, and thanks for the comment! I guess I just always revert to looking around the league and asking myself "how many of these teams have a path in front of them that is clearer than the Knicks" and my answer is something around 20, if not closer to 25. That's ultimately what spurred the letter, but I understand your points 100%.
As far as Barrett...why can't he turn into our version of Jimmy Butler? I think he is on his way to being that type of player! Remember Jimmy Butler wasn't Jimmy Butler until 3 or 4 years into his career! At this point that's the only thing I can hope for after losing out on Mitchell!
My ONLY hesitation here is that Jimmy is known to be a Kobe/MJ level worker. NOT saying RJ doesn't put in the time, but does he do it to such an insane degree as Jimmy? Maybe he doesn't need to though because he's got more ability to begin with. Either way, Jimmy has always been my ceiling comp for RJ, so I agree to some extent.
you make great points. I struggle with this stuff - the q's about whether more time would make them better assets. I don't pretend to know the right answer. Anyway, sorry for the unpleasant newsletter!
We'll see, you might be right. I'll just add that if Leon doesn't feel Thibs fits his strategy, he should probably let him go. If he feels he isn't the coach for this team and elects to keep him regardless, this would seem to be a reflection on Leon being fearful of his own job security, because as a POBO, once you fire a coach, the clock starts ticking.