Offensive

Boston finally found its shooting form on Saturday, but that only distracts from the Knicks' biggest issue.

Good morning, and a belated Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there. The start for Game 4 is 7:30 pm, and the only injury news of note is that Sam Houser has been upgraded to questionable. I’ll be back on at halftime for those who want to join.

One last thing before we get started: If anyone would be so inclined to take five minutes out of their day to help KFS with our new partners, please do so by completing this survey.

Game 4: Celtics 115, Knicks 93

Before we get into any analysis about Game 3, we have to start with an obvious but important acknowledgement:

Saturday afternoon was the most deflating two and a half hours of basketball in the modern history of this franchise.

I’m not prone to hyperbole, nor do I make sweeping statements lightly. I’ve been watching this team since 1993. I’ve seen many other big games. The Knicks failed to put their best foot forward in several of them.

But this? This was on another level from anything else, at least in the 32 years I’ve been a fan.

Boston took their first double digit lead less than seven minutes into the game and took a double digit lead for good less than eight minutes after the opening tip. One play into the second quarter, the Celtics were up by 18. The lead never again dipped below 16 points, and never fell below 20 in the second half.

Listening to the Garden crowd, you’d never know any of this. Going by the their cheers every time the Knicks made what passed for a run, you’d have thought this was never more than a one-possession game. When New York scored eight straight to end the third and begin the fourth, MSG reacted like their team had just taken the lead in Game 7 of the NBA Finals instead of cutting a 31-point advantage down to 23.

The import of this moment was not lost on the capacity crowd. Sadly, the players didn’t receive the same message. With such a golden opportunity in the palm of their hands, with nearly 20,000 people channeling the energy of Knick fans worldwide, to come out and die on the vine was simply inexcusable. It is what sets this game apart from all previous disappointments. Never has so much air been let out of a ballon so fast.

The saddest part? I wasn’t the least bit surprised.

For all the magic that this group has summoned over the last four weeks, the one thing they have yet to produce is 48 minutes is competent, serious basketball. That they have won six of nine games despite this fact is a testament to their grit, toughness and determination. None of that should be taken lightly. Its why, even with everything I’m about to write, I still believe this team has an NBA Finals run in them.

But make no mistake about it: the Knicks are winning despite their overall level of play, not because of it.

To wit: the Knicks have trailed by double digits in six of their nine postseason contests, including all three against the Celtics. If we add up their largest deficits in each of the nine games, the total is 127 points. Their total margin of victory? Just 21 points, and more than half of that came in Game 1 against Detroit, when they trailed by eight going into the fourth quarter.

While there are certainly issues on both sides of the ball, the thing that we thought was going to be their downfall all season long - the defense - has largely been OK. In the playoffs, New York is allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s more than a four point improvement from their regular season number and went into yesterday as the fifth best mark of the playoffs, behind only defensive stalwarts OKC, Boston, Minnesota and Cleveland.

Those data points can obviously be scrutinized after the Celtics put up 71 first half points on Saturday amidst some truly baffling defensive choices, but we also saw Boston do a 180 from downtown, to the tune of 12 makes in 19 attempts from deep.

Assuming (perhaps naively, but still) that Karl-Anthony Towns’ affair with his former lover known as drop coverage was nothing more than a one night stand, I’d expect the defense to improve. Boston might also find a happy medium between making everything and making nothing, which is all the Knicks can really ask for at this point.

And yet improved defense won’t amount to a hill of beans if New York doesn’t solve its issues on the other end of the floor.

Prepare yourself, because these numbers are gnarly:

• The Knicks currently have a 107.1 offensive rating in the postseason. That’s a little more than 10 points per 100 possessions lower than their regular season number and ranks 13th out of 16 playoff teams ahead of only the Magic, Heat and Grizzlies, who won one game combined before they were eliminated.

• The offense is even worse in this series, as New York has put up just 101.4 points per 100 possessions in 149 minutes against Boston, thanks in large part to an effective field goal percentage of 48.0 in the second round. As a point of comparison, the 18-win Wizards had the worst offense in the league at 105.8 points per 100 possessions, with an effective field goal percentage of 51.2.

• With their collective 3-point accuracy at 33 percent thanks in part to the Celtics’ penchant for switching liberally, the Knicks have attempted to attack the basket. It hasn’t gone great, as New York is just 10-for-27 on floaters, 8-for-25 on driving layup attempts and 3-for-10 on layup attempts on cuts¹.

I include all of this information not to be a Debbie Downer, but to emphasize the importance of this moment. Despite Saturday’s shellacking, the Knicks still have a golden opportunity on their hands to win a home game and come within one victory of their first Eastern Conference Finals in a quarter century.

Usually, teams in that position should probably keep doing whatever got them to this point, but the overwhelming majority of the data suggests precisely the opposite.

This seems like a good time for some positive news:

New York has played 437 postseason minutes thus far. In the 225 minutes when the five starters haven’t all been on the court together, the Knicks are outscoring their opponents by 16 points. In the 81 minutes the starters haven’t all been on the court against Boston, New York has a positive margin of 11 points.

Given that teams usually put their best foot forward with the starting five, these numbers would seem to be a cause for optimism. When it’s a team like the Knicks, about whom most NBA observers listed “lack of depth” as the number one preseason concern, this should be worthy of celebration.

Alas, back to the bad place we go:

• The starting five has a negative 20.7 net rating in this series, thanks mostly to an offensive rating of 90.4 in 68 minutes.

• Adding in the regular season to the last three games, in 133 total minutes against the Celtics, the normal starters have been outscored by 55 points, or slightly more than 0.4 points per minute.

• While there are many ways to express just how difficult a time the starters have had generating good shots, the one that stands out the most to me is a sub-1.00 assist-to-turnover ratio (0.95, to be exact). The Jazz ranked last among NBA teams in this stat during the regular season at 1.48.

The other reason I include assists-to-turnovers here is to show the stark contrast between the regular season and the playoffs, and how proof of concept in one doesn’t necessarily mean anything in the other. Over 82 games, the Knicks were sixth in the league with a 2.07 AST/TO ratio. The starters were even better, with a 2.29 figure that would have tied OKC for the league lead.

None of it matters now against a defense that has been a pool of quicksand for this group.

If ever we needed proof that something was amiss, look no further than the starting offense in the first quarters of this series. In theory, this is when they should be at their most prepared. Instead, the opposite has been true. In 18 first quarter minutes against Boston, the starting five has been outscored 40-22 (that’s a 59.5 offensive rating if you’re keeping track). They are an astounding 9-for-35 from the field across that time and have made just one of their nine attempts from behind the arc.

At this point, expecting the starters to come out and be better in Game 4 (or Game 5 or 6 or 7, depending on how long this series goes) seems like wishful thinking.

So…is there a move they can make?

The two most obvious solutions - replace Josh Hart with either Mitchell Robinson or Deuce McBride - don’t come with a lot of playoff evidence. The lineup featuring Mitch plus the starters has seen just five postseason minutes, while the lineup with Deuce in place of Hart has played even fewer.

Even so, I’m advocating for a move, and it’s a big one.

The lasting image of Saturday’s blowout loss may be Robinson holding his head in his hands following his second airballed free throw in as many games, but starting Mitch is still the change I’d make - not despite that sad moment, but because of it.

As a few KFS readers and viewers have suggested, having Robinson in the game to start every quarter would challenge Joe Mazzula’s Hack-a-Mitch strategy. If it was still so important for him to get Robinson out of the game ASAP, he’d be free to put the Knicks into the bonus mere minutes into each quarter. That in and of itself would be a minor victory.

And if not? Well in that case, the Celtics would have to deal with an extended run of New York’s twin towers, which is something they’ve thus far been unable to handle. Check out the following numbers on Robinson and Towns, both when they’re together and when they’ve been apart:

• Mitch + KAT: +25 in 65 total playoff minutes; +25 in 25 minutes vs Boston

• KAT without Mitch: -17 in 264 total playoff minutes; -38 in 78 minutes vs Boston

• Mitch without KAT: -7 in 96 total playoff minutes; +4 in 37 minutes vs Boston

The number that should stand out the most here is how badly New York has been pummeled in the minutes Towns has played without Robinson in this series.

To be clear, he’s far from the only one struggling without Mitch. On the contrary, KAT has fared slightly better than any of the other four starters in his minutes against the Celtics without Robinson:

Courtesy: PivotFade.com

Those numbers only further ram home the point that New York’s chances in this series will go the way of the dodo if they don’t start to get Mitch more time. He has been the one problem the Celtics haven’t been able to crack, evinced by their positive 22.3 net rating during his minutes in this series, free throw woes and all.

Would starting Robinson come with challenges? Of course. The free throw thing isn’t going away, although forcing Mazzula’s hand here would be quite the counter from Thibs. They also wouldn’t have the benefit of Mitch entering to provide a spark from the bench, and he’s been exceptional in this capacity. Starting him could dull some of that impact, to say nothing about opening the door to early foul trouble. Precious Achiuwa gave them good minutes in Game 3, but I’m not sure that’s a well they want to go back to on the regular.

But making such a move could also bring additional benefits (on top of the giant one with blaring sirens and flashing red lights: improved defense on the pick & roll, and keeping KAT further away from those actions). For one, Josh Hart would re-emerge as a bench spark plus. He’s always been best as a chaos agent, and this would return him to that capacity. Moreover, this would allow Thibs to align Robinson’s minutes with those of Boston’s starting five, which is when their attack is most threatening.

I understand how bold of a suggestion this is. I also know I probably wouldn’t be making it if the Celtics went 8-of-19 instead of 12-of-19 from deep in the first half, as Saturday’s game likely would have unfolded very differently.

I’ve praised Tom Thibodeau for many things over the years, but atop that list has been his ability to keep a steady hand on the wheel when the masses are clamoring for him to change course. Maybe this is one of those instances where his steely resolve will pay off.

Or maybe this is the exact time to shift gears.

The evidence is what it is, and something has to change. If not, those two comebacks in Boston will go down as asterisks rather than the stuff of legend.

The chance to go on the offensive starts tonight.

💫 Stars of the Game 💫

⭐️ Mitchell Robinson: Yes, even with him going 4-for-12 from the line. All he needs to do is make half. Do that, and everything flips.

⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson: As Benjy Ritholtz is fond of saying, Brunson is operating in a phone booth. The fact that he still scored 27 points on 21 shots is a testament to his mettle, although this was far from his best game even in consideration of the spacing concerns.

Perhaps even more than to keep KAT out of the pick & roll on defense, the biggest reason I want Robinson to start is to give Brunson a proper pick & roll partner. That is a staggering admission given how the KAT/JB tandem started the season as the league’s most devastating combination, but Boston has completely defanged that once potent attack. The Knicks cannot win this series is Brunson doesn’t look like Brunson, and he has looked most like himself operating with Robinson.

Need proof? In 42 minutes of shared court time in this series, Jalen and Mitch have combined for a 124.1 offensive rating. That is by far the best of any two-man combo that has gotten any usage of consequence.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Deuce McBride: Mostly here by default, but Deuce was solid in his 20 minutes.

Final Thought

Still have the upper hand.

Play tonight like it’s win or go home, because that’s exactly how it feels.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. All of those numbers are courtesy of the fine folks at Pivotfade.com