OG Down

The Knicks will be without their defensive stalwart for a little while. Here's what it means. Plus, a deep dive on KAT's Friday masterpiece.

Good morning!

We have to start today with yesterday’s unfortunate news (or encouraging news, I suppose, based on your outlook) that OG Anunoby will be re-evaluated in two weeks with a hamstring injury. Jalen Brunson also remains out with his sprained ankle, although he did join the team for this road trip, while Deuce McBride is questionable for personal reasons.

How will the Knicks navigate these absences? I’d lean towards Landry Shamet getting the start in Anunoby’s place, although Jordan Clarkson is a possibility there as well. One of those two will join Josh Hart off the bench (unless McBride has to miss the game, in which case I’d assume both Deuce and Clarkson start), and then Guerschon Yabusele better be ready for his close out.

Beyond that, there are no guarantees. Will Brown go with Kolek, sacrificing size and defense in the process? Does he tap Hukporti and shift Towns to the four for extended minutes? Or will we see Pacome Dadiet or Mohamed Diawara get a chance to fill the big wing role that Anunoby is temporarily vacating? My head tells me that Kolek will get first dibs, but my gut tells me that Brown would really like to see what Diawara can do with the opportunity. Maybe if Deuce sits, we see both.

Before we get to the newsletter, a quick announcement: THIS WEEK ONLY, any time someone purchases an annual subscription to the KFS Newsletter, I’ll be making a $15 donation to the Thanksgiving Drive run by my good friend (and the creator of this newsletter) Jeff Bellone over at Mets Fix. If you’ve been thinking about subscribing but have been waiting for the right time, maybe this can be it. Alternatively, if anyone would like to donate to the drive directly, you can do so here.

I’ll report back next Monday on how much we raised. Thank you!

The KAT’s Meow

Before we get to today’s look back at a KAT masterpiece (and a really good offensive performance in general), the old head in me feels the need to put Friday night’s Knicks Heat game into perspective.

On June 15, 1995, Pat “The Rat” Riley sent a fax to Knicks’ brass in which he tendered his resignation from the franchise to become president and head coach of the Miami Heat. In that moment, the fiercest rivalry in the NBA was born. For those who are too young to have witnessed it, take my word: the contests that followed between those two teams were far closer to gladiatorial combat than any sanctioned professional sport still in existence today.

I couldn’t help but reflect back to that original rivalry when the Knicks led the Heat 110-104 through three quarters on Friday night and I went “my, oh my, how times have changed.”

To wit: in the nine years from the beginning of the 1995-96 season - Riley’s first in Miami - until the end of the 2003-04 campaign, the Knicks and Heat played each other 61 times, with 37 bouts coming in the regular season and 24 grueling playoff matches on top of that. In none of those 61 contests did either the Knicks or the Heat ever score at least 104 points in a game. Only once, in February of 2001, did both teams score at least 100 points in the same game, and it was a 103-100 Knicks win in overtime. In those 24 playoff games, only once did either team top 100.

And to think, we were at 110-104 after three quarters on Friday…and that was with New York missing their first eight shots from the field!

That brings us to the matter at hand: Karl-Anthony Towns proving that he is quite capable of being an elite driver of offense for a very good NBA team.

It’s not a coincidence that among those eight missed shots to start the game for New York, Towns attempted just one, but it was an important one. Perhaps the most important shot a Knick attempted all night long even though it didn’t go in. The shot was a straight away three from the top of the arc, taken less than two seconds after the ball crossed half-court and with 19 left on the clock.

Andrew Wiggins was guarding KAT for the possession, as he would for much of this night. When Towns began to get into his shooting motion, Wiggins’ hand was just starting to rise, likely not anticipating that a shot was about to go up:

He wound up getting his left hand high in the air, but it was a shot-contest in name only given how far away he was. Towns missed, but a message had been sent: lay off at your own risk.

Sure enough, here’s how the Knicks got their first basket of the game:

There was some confusion here between Wiggins, who stunts at Towns and then starts to backpedal towards a rolling Mitchell Robinson, and Kal'el Ware, who was no Superman on this play, unsure of which man to cover and failing to get a hand anywhere close to KAT’s shot attempt.

Regardless of who was at fault, I hope Towns took the miscommunication as a personal insult. If he truly is, ahem…the greatest shooting big man of all time, then if anything, a miscommunication should result in both Wiggins and Ware jutting out to the 3-point line, not the other way around.

Think, if this was Jalen Brunson (career 3-point percentage: 38.9), there’s no chance he’s left this open, but when it’s the occasionally hesitant Towns (career 3-point percentage: 39.9), this is what happens. That he put up the shot without hesitation not only gave the Knicks their first points, but the dice had been cast for the rest of the evening.

Apparently, Miami still hadn’t learned their lesson. Hand down, man down:

This shot made it 7-6, and suddenly, New York was rolling.

After a Mikal middie, we got KAT’s fourth 3-point attempt in the first four minutes, which was blocked by Ware. Like the first shot of the game, the result wasn’t positive, but the process was incredibly encouraging. The Heat were now respecting Towns’ jumper as opposed to laying off and waiting for the drive.

Guess what happens the next time down the court:

Given how the game had started out, Ware didn’t stand a chance. Mitchell goes over the top of the screen to try and prevent a possible Deuce pull-up triple, but Ware has to stay close to the level of the screen in case Towns decided to pop for another three. Once KAT starts to roll, there’s nothing Ware can do. Outside of Victor Wembanyama, there’s no center in the NBA with the combination of length and foot speed to stick with Towns once that snowball starts heading downhill.

The other key here is the spacing. Watch Pelle Larsson, who is in low man help, as this play develops. He can’t get back to the middle in time to bother KAT. Why? Because Landry Shamet has just cut to the corner and Larsson can’t undo his momentum in that direction.

Quick aside: Through 12 games of this season, you better believe Mike Brown values spacing in a way that the last coach may not have. I count four significant pieces of evidence on this front:

• Ariel Hukporti has been banished from the rotation even with Mitch playing limited minutes and half the games.

• According to Cleaning the Glass, Karl-Anthony Towns has played 48 percent of his minutes in a true 5-out lineup¹.

• We have not seen a single non-garbage time possession where KAT has played with more than one non-spacer. As a result, Hart and Mitch have had to play together a fair bit, but even that total is less than half of Robinson’s total minutes.

• Brown has convinced Hart to fire away. He’s taking 4.5 threes per 36 minutes, which is almost a 50 percent increase from last season, and would easily be his highest as a Knick.

Oh, and then there’s a fifth piece of evidence: Landry Shamet is in the midst of a career year, perhaps emboldened by Brown in a way he never was by any other coach.

And wouldn’t you know it, here’s how the next possession went:

Back to KAT: he didn’t get an assist on this play - heck, he didn’t even touch the ball - but his presence is most responsible for this play unfolding as it did.

For proof of that, watch Norm Powell and Davion Mitchell. As Shamet cuts to the corner along the baseline, Powell immediately calls it out, but Mitchell is completely preoccupied with the pick & roll unfolding in front of him, perhaps still thinking of what happened on the previous possession.

From there, Josh Hart shows his immense value as a jack of all trades, able to suck in the defense before making a perfect pass to Shamet in the corner.

We saw the same general concept play out on the next possession, even though it didn’t result in a bucket:

This is a great look from Bridges, thanks in part to Towns’ gravity, but also to an offense in constant motion. You can see Powell’s momentary confusion when McBride cuts to one corner just as Mikal has cut to the other. This is also an ideal use of Hart, as the pick & roll ball-handler with Towns and surrounded by three shooters who demand a defense’s respect.

Second quick aside: I think we’re beginning to see the outlines of the three basic lineups Mike Brown will play when everyone is healthy (knocks on all the wood that they will all be healthy at some point):

• Starting lineup: Brunson, Mikal, OG, KAT, Mitch

• KAT only: Deuce, Clarkson, Hart, OG/Mikal, KAT

• Brunson only: Brunson, Shamet, OG/Mikal, Yabu, Mitch

There are obviously different variations of this that we’ll see, but this general alignment checks a lot of boxes. The one asterisk here should go next to Yabusele’s name, who has not proven himself rotation worthy as of yet, but should theoretically play a more prominent role at some point. In the meantime, less Yabu just means they roll with more 3-guard alignments and/or extend Mikal and OG for longer.

Back to the game…after a great move where KAT got Ware in the air and dished it to Deuce under the hoop for an easy bucket, we got this:

Give Ware credit. The young man did a nice job of staying in front of KAT and making him change course.

But as I noted in a newsletter a few weeks ago, the key to defending KAT is to get physical, and Ware certainly wasn’t. As a result, Towns had his way thanks to some incredible shot-making, plain and simple.

Last play for today:

We (ok, I) lamented after the Bucks game that Towns tried too hard to fit a square peg into a round hole. That doesn’t mean he should abandon this part of his game completely. It keeps defenses honest, and when executed properly, is a pretty efficient option. What I love about this play is the patience KAT displayed for the entirety of the possession.

And even though this newsletter focuses entirely on Towns using his gravity in a variety of ways to open up the game for him and his teammates, my biggest takeaway from this win was his patience and poise in the second half, when the Heat committed more bodies and attention to Towns but he never once forced the issue.

As the man in the mask said, this is the way.

And with Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby down for the count, he’ll need to continue on this same path for the Knicks to keep their heads above water.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

1. I obtained that number by filtering out all lineups with any of Hart, Mitch or Huk in it. Interestingly enough, these lineups have underperformed on offense, generating “only” 119.9 points per 100 possessions in 396 possessions. Meanwhile, lineups with Hart and Towns together are demolishing teams to the tune of 127.8 points per 100 according to Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with Mitch and KAT are breathing even more fire, with a 137.8 offensive rating, albeit in a far more limited sample size.