Congratulations to KFS and the KFS community on this fantastic season.
Before the Randle injury, I had suggested shortening the rotation to 8 players not including Obi because he seemed so lost on the court in limited minutes. With Hart's arrival, there was a minutes crunch among Grimes, RJ, Hart and IQ who have each individually been more impactful than Obi over the season. Grimes in particular was down to 20 - 24 minutes or so on many nights and RJ was struggling to get to 30. You just wrote about what Grimes has done over the last 6 games. Given a choice, I would rather get another 12 minutes of that than Deuce or pre-Randle injury Obi. Last night was a reminder of what Obi can do when given an opportunity. Let's hope it continues. T
Over the last handful of games, we have seen a little bit more flexibility from Thibs managing the rotations, including playing Obi the entire 2nd half last night and not bringing JB back in the 4Q when the bench was rolling. After Obi's performance last night, 8 of the 9 players in the core rotation have gone for 20 at least once this year. Season highs: Randle (57), Brunson (48), RJ(44), IQ (40), Grimes (33), Hart (27), Obi (21), Mitch (20). Other than JB, every player in the rotation has the ability to lock in on defense at least at some level. Looking at the playoffs, sometimes one player may be playing better than another player. If Thibs can continue to lean in to playing who ever is playing the best rather than sticking to pre-planned rotations, I think we have a really good chance against anyone in the east other than the Bucks.
I’m not too worried about the Pacers. At this late juncture it’s more in their interest to lose than win, and from that standpoint they are 1 Portland win away from being 5th heading into the lottery, meaning that they’d have the best odds at Wembamyama, outside the 4 teams which basically tanked the season, all of which who have flattened out odds under the new system. So try as the Nets may, with 2 games against the Pacers needing to just win 1, I’m not worried about it.
One thing that bears watching, is Mitch Robinson. The MSG cameras were intently focused in on him looking for a reaction at the end of the Cleveland game. Hartenstein is eating into his minutes, and the change to Obi Toppin with Randle out means that it’s a trend that’s going to continue.
We cannot win by just trying to plug and play, putting Toppin in in place of Randle. They are totally different players. Trying to win by going small, as some have suggested, will only result in us getting destroyed by Cleveland.
Our best chance of beating Cleveland is to play to the strengths of the lineup we have to put out there. So if we have to play Toppin, then we have to start Josh Hart over RJ Barrett to make up some of the rebounding that we lose without Randle. Furthermore, you also need to switch Hartenstein into the starting lineup for two reasons, Mitch Robinson and Obi Toppin are both lob guys, so there is redundancy in putting them on the floor together. Also, Hartenstein clearly has chemistry with Obi Toppin, together pushing the ball and getting out in transition. Without a doubt, the worst month that Hartenstein had was December, when Obi was out with the leg injury.
No doubt this is a highly risky strategy, but clearly Thibs gave it a test run on Friday, and with Toppin in and Randle out, pushing the ball worked. Maybe he doesn’t pull Robinson from the starting lineup because of all the turmoil that it would bring, but it sure looks like Hartenstein is going to finish games, at the very least until Randle gets back.
One thing you get with Obi is the potential for a transition game. I remember the end of last season the garden almost came down when Obi and Quick put on a transition clinic. Now you add iHart, Hart, and Grimes or Deuce and you got something.
Agree totally with the Hart appraisal you put up here. He's an amazing combination of energy, basketball instincts, and athleticism. Is there an award for that? How about "Ass-ache of the Year"?
Playing Deuce instead of a 6’9 guy is going small and does make a difference. There are pluses and minuses to all decisions but Deuce’s height does have an impact. Also there is no bell weather for Obi Toppin mins. They are something given out of desperation not in reward of any kind of play. I see a lot narrative building here.
From what I understand, If we win the Pelicans game and lose both Indy games and the Nets win out, we'll have the same: Head to Head, Division Record, & Conference Record. It's the 4th tie breaker that will determine it.
Put it this way, it’s all going to come down to results. If they lose to Cleveland, Obi Toppin will be shipped out this summer with his one remaining year of team control, and we go into next season with Randle and play half court next season.
However, if we beat Cleveland and then make a decent showing against Milwaukee, extend them to 6 games or better, I can’t fathom them keeping Randle and getting rid of Toppin and play walk it up next year.
Going up and down is a more entertaining style of play, and if it gets results in the league layoffs and the Knicks decided to get rid of Toppin to play walk it up with Randle next year, the fan base would be in open revolt and they might burn down Madison Square Garden.
Like it or not, if they win with Obi Toppin, there is no going back, and Julius Randle is the new Wally Pipp.
One potentially relevant point is that it looks like the Dallas pick probably won't convey. Assuming we aren't rostering a FRP and with presumably low trade value, I think it's worth keeping Obi around for another year to back up Julius. Also, with the all-NBA line being set at 65 games and the topic of his mental health being such an issue, maybe Johnny Bryant suggests he take a game off here and there to stay mentally fresh and optimized when he does play.
Macri, you probably know the answer to this. If the Knicks lose both Pacers games and end up in a tie with Brooklyn, they’ll have same division record and same conference record.
The next tie breaker is this: Higher winning percentage vs. playoff teams in own conference. How can we figure out if we are higher than the Nets?
Today’s newsletter is why I’m a subscriber. What a gift and a pleasure to read. 🙏🙏
Thank you so much James! Really appreciate you taking the time to say as much!
Congratulations to KFS and the KFS community on this fantastic season.
Before the Randle injury, I had suggested shortening the rotation to 8 players not including Obi because he seemed so lost on the court in limited minutes. With Hart's arrival, there was a minutes crunch among Grimes, RJ, Hart and IQ who have each individually been more impactful than Obi over the season. Grimes in particular was down to 20 - 24 minutes or so on many nights and RJ was struggling to get to 30. You just wrote about what Grimes has done over the last 6 games. Given a choice, I would rather get another 12 minutes of that than Deuce or pre-Randle injury Obi. Last night was a reminder of what Obi can do when given an opportunity. Let's hope it continues. T
Over the last handful of games, we have seen a little bit more flexibility from Thibs managing the rotations, including playing Obi the entire 2nd half last night and not bringing JB back in the 4Q when the bench was rolling. After Obi's performance last night, 8 of the 9 players in the core rotation have gone for 20 at least once this year. Season highs: Randle (57), Brunson (48), RJ(44), IQ (40), Grimes (33), Hart (27), Obi (21), Mitch (20). Other than JB, every player in the rotation has the ability to lock in on defense at least at some level. Looking at the playoffs, sometimes one player may be playing better than another player. If Thibs can continue to lean in to playing who ever is playing the best rather than sticking to pre-planned rotations, I think we have a really good chance against anyone in the east other than the Bucks.
I’m not too worried about the Pacers. At this late juncture it’s more in their interest to lose than win, and from that standpoint they are 1 Portland win away from being 5th heading into the lottery, meaning that they’d have the best odds at Wembamyama, outside the 4 teams which basically tanked the season, all of which who have flattened out odds under the new system. So try as the Nets may, with 2 games against the Pacers needing to just win 1, I’m not worried about it.
One thing that bears watching, is Mitch Robinson. The MSG cameras were intently focused in on him looking for a reaction at the end of the Cleveland game. Hartenstein is eating into his minutes, and the change to Obi Toppin with Randle out means that it’s a trend that’s going to continue.
We cannot win by just trying to plug and play, putting Toppin in in place of Randle. They are totally different players. Trying to win by going small, as some have suggested, will only result in us getting destroyed by Cleveland.
Our best chance of beating Cleveland is to play to the strengths of the lineup we have to put out there. So if we have to play Toppin, then we have to start Josh Hart over RJ Barrett to make up some of the rebounding that we lose without Randle. Furthermore, you also need to switch Hartenstein into the starting lineup for two reasons, Mitch Robinson and Obi Toppin are both lob guys, so there is redundancy in putting them on the floor together. Also, Hartenstein clearly has chemistry with Obi Toppin, together pushing the ball and getting out in transition. Without a doubt, the worst month that Hartenstein had was December, when Obi was out with the leg injury.
No doubt this is a highly risky strategy, but clearly Thibs gave it a test run on Friday, and with Toppin in and Randle out, pushing the ball worked. Maybe he doesn’t pull Robinson from the starting lineup because of all the turmoil that it would bring, but it sure looks like Hartenstein is going to finish games, at the very least until Randle gets back.
One thing you get with Obi is the potential for a transition game. I remember the end of last season the garden almost came down when Obi and Quick put on a transition clinic. Now you add iHart, Hart, and Grimes or Deuce and you got something.
Not sure it’s exactly cool to be a Knicks fan quite yet, but enjoying not being the absolute laughing stock of the league. Progress.
Macri, how nervous were you throughout this game at the thought of writing an entire newsletter about the Taj Gibson revenge game?
Man...IDK if I could have even been mad.
I, for one, was irrationally furious
Agree totally with the Hart appraisal you put up here. He's an amazing combination of energy, basketball instincts, and athleticism. Is there an award for that? How about "Ass-ache of the Year"?
Or player you hate but wish he played for your team award.
the Marcus Smart award!
Petition the commish.
Playing Deuce instead of a 6’9 guy is going small and does make a difference. There are pluses and minuses to all decisions but Deuce’s height does have an impact. Also there is no bell weather for Obi Toppin mins. They are something given out of desperation not in reward of any kind of play. I see a lot narrative building here.
From what I understand, If we win the Pelicans game and lose both Indy games and the Nets win out, we'll have the same: Head to Head, Division Record, & Conference Record. It's the 4th tie breaker that will determine it.
yes, and we win that one
Put it this way, it’s all going to come down to results. If they lose to Cleveland, Obi Toppin will be shipped out this summer with his one remaining year of team control, and we go into next season with Randle and play half court next season.
However, if we beat Cleveland and then make a decent showing against Milwaukee, extend them to 6 games or better, I can’t fathom them keeping Randle and getting rid of Toppin and play walk it up next year.
Going up and down is a more entertaining style of play, and if it gets results in the league layoffs and the Knicks decided to get rid of Toppin to play walk it up with Randle next year, the fan base would be in open revolt and they might burn down Madison Square Garden.
Like it or not, if they win with Obi Toppin, there is no going back, and Julius Randle is the new Wally Pipp.
One potentially relevant point is that it looks like the Dallas pick probably won't convey. Assuming we aren't rostering a FRP and with presumably low trade value, I think it's worth keeping Obi around for another year to back up Julius. Also, with the all-NBA line being set at 65 games and the topic of his mental health being such an issue, maybe Johnny Bryant suggests he take a game off here and there to stay mentally fresh and optimized when he does play.
Jeremy thinks that the pick not conveying could be very good for Obi's chances of staying
Macri, you probably know the answer to this. If the Knicks lose both Pacers games and end up in a tie with Brooklyn, they’ll have same division record and same conference record.
The next tie breaker is this: Higher winning percentage vs. playoff teams in own conference. How can we figure out if we are higher than the Nets?
it won't get to that if the Nets win out and the Knicks lose out because they'll have one more win. We will win any tiebreakers.