Potential in Portland
Today I explain why Portland is the team the Knicks are most likely to trade with this summer and what deals could be on the table. Plus, thoughts on the conference finals.
Good morning! The conference finals are set, the lottery is tomorrow, and we continue today with the 6th of our 29 Trade Primers. In other words, it’s a busy Monday.
Once we know where New York will select, the draft coverage will ramp up in full here in the newsletter. Speaking of the lottery, the Knicks need some long overdue luck, so to try and increase the good juju, I’m offering a subscription to the newsletter for just $4 a month to anyone that isn’t already a full subscriber:
Let’s get to it.
News & Notes
🏀 The Knicks announced their representative for tomorrow night’s NBA Draft Lottery: William “Worldwide” Wesley, who currently serves as the team’s Executive VP / consigliere.
Although the Knicks weren’t part of the event in 2021, this is yet another in a long line of forays into the draft lottery process, which always seems to bring a different face on the dais. Leon Rose appeared virtually in 2020, but before that it was Patrick Ewing taking the stage in 2019, Scott Perry in 2018, Walt Frazier in 2017 and Steve Mills in 20151. The only repeat rep I can find since the 90’s is Allan Houston, who represented them in both 2009 and 2003, although for the life of me I can’t seem to find who served in this capacity in either 2005 or 2002. Feel free to email KnicksFilmSchool@gmail.com if you know.
🏀 One of the more shocking NBA results in recent memory occurred last night, when the Mavs went into Phoenix and absolutely pummeled the top-seeded 64-win Suns, 122-90 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. Luka Doncic announcing himself as the most dangerous offensive player in the sport will take the headlines, but Dallas’ defense and Spencer Dinwiddie were the real unheralded stars. Give credit to Jason Kidd for having those guys ready to defend the Suns with a ferocity I don’t remember seeing in years, and to Dinwiddie for giving Luka the co-star he deserves, at least for one night. Hat tip also to Jalen Brunson, who did more of his work in the second half once the game was already out of hand but has nonetheless been a pivotal part of this Mavs run. The West finals against Golden State begin on Wednesday.
🏀 There will be a new NBA champion in 2022, with the Boston Celtics making more than five times as many 3-pointers as the Milwaukee Bucks, going 22-for-55 from behind the arc while the Bucks were 4-of-33 en route to a 109-81 win. Milwaukee simply ran out of gas without their swingman Khris Middleton, who missed the entire series due to injury, and Giannis finally showed signs of mortality after an otherworldly first six games. Boston, meanwhile, is firing on all cylinders.
This will be the second time in three seasons that the Celtics and Heat face off with a trip to the Finals on the line. This is also the ninth time in 26 seasons Miami has advanced to the East Finals with Pat Riley as a member of the organization, while it’s the the 8th time in the last 21 seasons Boston has advanced to this round. They have been the two preeminent teams in the conference since the Bulls dynasty ended, followed by Detroit (six consecutive appearances from 2003 to 2008), Cleveland (six total thanks to LeBron) and Indiana (five).
What lessons can we learn from the four teams that are left standing? I’m not sure we can take much of anything from the West. There is only one Luka and everything flows from him. Ditto for the Golden State attack that changed basketball and continues to chug along. As for the East, I’d argue that the Heat and Celtics prove that all things being equal, continuity is probably a good thing. Aside from Riley, Eric Spoelstara has been the coach for 14 years in Miami, while Danny Ainge and later Brad Stevens have had their fingerprints all over Boston’s run.
I’m more interested in how both Miami and Boston are constructed though. Each team has an All-NBA level wing engine who essentially runs the offense (Butler and Tatum), a solid secondary creator (Brown and Herro), a point guard who can create when necessary, but more importantly, excels at the little things that win games (Lowry and Smart), a switchable, playmaking big (Bam and Horford), and perfectly suited role players around those core guys. These teams aren’t perfect - Herro’s defense is a major liability, Derrick White can’t shoot, Miami probably doesn’t make enough threes, Boston’s offense can get sloggy, etc, etc, - but both the Celtics and Heat have pushed back on the notion that only superteams can succeed in the league today.
What does that mean for the Knicks in their current state? Not much, aside from the fact that they need to find their engine. The fact that Jaylen Brown might wind up being the second best player on a title team is a very encouraging sign for Barrett believers, but that still doesn’t get them their Jimmy or Jayson (or Luka or Steph, should they ever be so lucky). We’ll see if they make headway on that front this summer, and if so, how much of their core they need to sacrifice to make it happen.
After that, the nuance and expertise of team building really comes into play. That said, they have some pieces you could imagine playing significant minutes for a final four team. Immanuel Quickley certainly comes to mind. Quentin Grimes has the outline of a valuable two-way cog. And then there are the wild cards, Cam and Obi. Does either player emerge as a major piece next season? Even one popping in a significant way would be huge.
More thoughts on big picture stuff like this as the postseason continues.
Potential in Portland
My oh my how times have changed. A year ago, following a first round flameout at the hands of the depleted Denver Nuggets, all the talk was about whether Damian Lillard would ask out and whether the Knicks would become his destination of choice.
So much for all that. He didn’t, they weren’t, and after a 27-55 finish that saw longtime GM Neil Olshey fired back in December, the franchise has reportedly decided to double down on Lillard as he enters his age-32 season.
We’ll get back to Dame in a sec. First, here’s a look at the Blazers cap sheet, which has a lot more going on than initially meets the eye:
Before I touch briefly on Dame and then get into the juicier, more realistic possibilities, let’s quickly go through the pivot point for Portland’s offseason, which could see them enter free agency as an over the cap team, a team able to sign a max player, or anywhere in between:
Eric Bledsoe: Only $3.9 million of Bledsoe’s $19.3 million expiring contract is guaranteed, although this only matters if Portland intends on waving him to open up cap space. If he is traded to another team, his entire 2022-23 salary becomes fully guaranteed.
Josh Hart: Hart has a very unique contract in that his $12.9 million salary is fully non-guaranteed, but if it is picked up, he has a player option for the 2023-24 season.
Jusuf Nurkic: Nurk is set to enter unrestricted free agency and has an $18 million cap hold. If Portland relinquishes his cap hold in order to open up cap space and then uses all of that spending power, they’ll have no way to re-sign Nurkic. If they keep the cap hold, it will help them stay over the cap (more on the benefits of this in a few bullet points) and then re-sign him without using cap space. GM Joe Cronin recently called Nurk “the type of player that we definitely want to build around.”
Anfernee Simons: Like Nurk, his cap hold of $11.8 million is the important part here, with the key difference being that Simons is a restricted free agent, so keeping the cap hold on the books is the only surefire way to guard against another team stealing him away. I wouldn’t expect his $5.7 million qualifying offer to come into play, as you’d think Simons will want to get some long term stability coming off a cheap rookie deal. As for Portland’s interest, Joe Cronin called him “a core piece” of the team.
Exceptions: The Blazers have several: a $20.8 million trade exception from the CJ McCollum deal, a $6.5 million one from the Covington deal, a $3.2 million one from the Nickeil Alexander Walker deal, and then both their full mid-level of $10.3 million and the bi-annual of $4 million.
Let’s start at the end of these, and the $45 million worth of exceptions, all of which will vanish into thin air the moment the Blazers go under the salary cap. Why would Portland ever want to do that? Well that depends on just how far under the cap they can get.
If the Blazers go full scorched earth - non-guarantee Bledsoe and then stretch his guaranteed money, waive Hart, and relinquish both Nurkic and Simons - they’d have about $56 million in spending power assuming they wound up with the 6th pick in the draft. Trading the pick could get them close to $63 million, which is still $10 million short of two max slots for players with between seven and nine years of NBA experience.
Not that that should be a concern. This isn’t really the offseason to try and compile a “big three” through free agency, as all the major guys who can hit the market are guards and Portland already has Lillard. Moving heaven and earth only to watch Phoenix match a Deandre Ayton offer sheet probably isn’t the best use of resources either.
This really comes down to opening one max slot, with Zach LaVine being the recently rumored target. They can keep Hart or retain Simons cap hold and still have enough room for LaVine, but not both…unless they dealt away Justice Winslow and another small salary, in which case they could keep both.
All of those gymnastics would only be necessary if LaVine (or another one of the max guys) decided to come to the Pacific Northwest. If he doesn’t, it makes virtually no sense for the Blazers to operate as an under the cap team, which gets us back to those exceptions. Portland would unequivocally be in a better position with Hart, Simons, Nurkic, Bledsoe’s expiring contract and a bunch of exception money to blow on several different salary ranges than they would be with $50-plus million in spending cash and no one great to use it on.
The biggest of those exceptions - the one for $20.8 million - is part of the reason why Portland has been linked so heavily to Detroit’s Jerami Grant, whose 2021-22 salary fits snugly within that figure. If, however, the Blazers can’t swing a trade for Grant before the new league year kicks in and they instead go all in for LaVine, they’d have to send out salary for Grant, as the trade exception would go bye bye. According to Mark Stein, Portland already tried to go that route at the deadline, but their package of Hart and draft compensation was rebuffed.
Assuming the exception needs to be relinquished to open up space for LaVine and Detroit is still driving a hard bargain, might the Blazers be interested in Julius Randle as a backup plan at power forward? Lillard, LaVine and Randle is quite the motley crew as far as big three’s are concerned, but if the goal is to appease Dame, what would be more appealing: Hart, or Randle? The only problem there is that the salaries wouldn’t match up, and the Blazers would need to send back the salaries of Justise Winslow and Keon Johnson with Hart, and Randle would need to waive his trade kicker.
Some big threes weren’t meant to be I guess. Oh well. Worse news: Randle to the Blazers doesn’t become all that much more likely if the Blazers operate as an over the cap team either. Something built around Bledsoe and Hart wouldn’t work under the cap, nor does it feel like a deal the Knicks would take. Maybe Bledsoe, Winslow and a swap of first round picks, assuming neither the Blazers or Knicks sneak into the top four? New York would have to really love someone in the 6-8 range while the Blazers would have to be sold on Randle (and will have probably missed out on Grant).
I wouldn’t rule this out completely. I had also written about the possibility of a Randle / Simons sign & trade swap, but unless the Blazers decide to operate as an under the cap team and then don’t get LaVine, base year compensation issues will put the kibosh on that. Lastly, as I discussed a few weeks back, a sign and trade involving Randle and Jusuf Nurkic could be in play, but it sounds like Portland wants to retain his services.
What about non-Randle deals involving Portland? I’ll go back to Hart here, if only because he fits the profile of someone the Knicks might be inclined to go after: he’s not too old (just turned 27), offers good size and positional versatility, and might just now be hitting his peak, having averaged 20, 5 & 4 in 13 games with the Blazers to end the year, including making 37.3 percent on 6.4 threes per game.
So why would the Blazers give him up, especially since he’s the primary return in the McCollum deal after New Orleans’ pick didn’t convey2? I don’t really have a great answer other than maybe they want to try and flip Bledsoe’s expiring deal for something more useful and attaching Hart might be a way to do that. Does Evan Fournier and Derrick Rose (or Alec Burks, I suppose) for Bledsoe and Hart make the Blazers a better team? Probably. Would the Knicks do this? It would make sense if they wanted to lean further into the youth. They could also keep Bledsoe’s expiring contract on ice in case they needed to add expiring salary into a larger deal at the deadline.
I think ultimately a smaller deal between these teams would be more likely, where the Blazers aren’t sending out Hart (or anyone else that’s actually good) and the Knicks are getting back future draft equity from the Blazers. If we assume Portland is back in the playoffs next season, that means their outstanding pick obligation to the Bulls will be satisfied and they’ll convey their 2023 first. In that case, the Blazers can trade a first as soon as 20253. The Knicks might like this for a few reasons. For one, it adds another pick to the coffers that can be used in a larger trade down the line. It would also help clear up the rotation, and depending on who gets moved, get some long term money off the books. Some ideas:
Derrick Rose and the best of New York’s 2023 second rounders for Bledsoe and the worse of Portland’s own 2025 first and Milwaukee’s 2025 first.
Same trade as above, except Fournier instead of Rose
Same trade as above, except Rose and Burks go to Portland for Bledsoe and Greg Brown III for salary purposes.
And finally, the trade construction I think is probably most likely: if Portland can’t swing a Jerami Grant trade but still feels pressured to improve their roster before the free agency / trade dust settles this summer, they can inherit Fournier into the trade exception for a top-55 protected second round pick, thus allowing the Knicks to open up cap space for a run at Jalen Brunson.
This could work with Rose or Burks too. If it’s Rose, they’d be a Kemba waive & stretch away from being able to offer Brunson a starting salary just north of $23 million4. If it’s Burks, a Kemba waive & stretch allows them to start Brunson at just under $19 million and still top $80 million for the life of the deal.
I think Fournier makes the most sense though, for a few reasons. For all his faults, him and Lillard would instantly become one of the best shooting backcourts in the NBA. Defense would be a problem but with Hart and Nurkic back, it would help mitigate some of those issues. Hell, Portland could inherit Fournier into the exception and still acquire Grant using the Bledsoe contract, giving them another solid defender on the back line.
Mostly, this is about the Blazers being able to acquire talent - imperfect talent, but talent nonetheless - without having to give anything up, and the Knicks being in the unique position to accommodate. Looking around the league, there’s scant few players under contract who a) are good enough to help a team that is trying to win games and b) are currently with a team that simply wants to be rid of them. Devonte Graham? Richaun Holmes? I’d much rather have Fournier than either of them.
We’ve been searching high and low for the trump card Leon Rose can gain access to that would allow him to make an outright offer to Brunson without needing to engage the Mavs in a sign and trade, and this might be it. It hinges on that trade exception, and whether the Blazers are able to use it on Grant or someone else5.
With all of these possibilities in play, if you asked me to bet on one team that the Knicks are likeliest to do business with this summer, I’d pick Portland.
Oh, and Dame? Just because the Blazers are going to do their best to build around him this summer doesn’t mean it will work. I’d be surprised if they enter next season as a top-six team in the West, and if things go poorly again, don’t be surprised to see Lillard looking for a trade in the not too distant future. If that happens, might the Knicks be in play? Your guess is as good as mine, but if the NBA has taught us nothing, it’s that we should take the words of every GM with several grains of salt. They’ll build around Dame…right up until the point that the main building block wants out. And you know the Knicks would at least pick up the phone.
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New York’s pick in 2016 swapped with Denver’s in the Melo trade, and they subsequently traded Denver’s pick to Toronto in the Bargs debacle. 2014’s pick also went to the Nuggets in the Melo trade.
It’s now Milwaukee’s 2025 first rounder.
They can also get creative with this because of the Bucks first incoming from the McCollum trade.
Assuming they waive Gibson, retain Mitch’s cap hold and keep their first round pick.
Other candidates: Eric Gordon, Christian Wood, Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross and Josh Richardson. The teams that employ all of those players will want something decent back in the deal though.
I just want rid of Randle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!