Reality Check

New York dropped both games against star-led teams this weekend. Should we be surprised?

Good morning. Not a great Monday to wake up if you’re a New York sports fan, as this weekend was pretty humbling. But you take the bad with the good, and after six games, the Knicks are 3-3…not so terrible when you look at how some supposed contenders are doing around the league. Let’s digest both games, and then finish up with some bigger picture thoughts…

Game Recap: Knicks 108, Cavs 121

⌚️30 Seconds or Less: This was a really fun game for about 36 minutes. The Cavs tried to deliver a knockout blow early, with Donovan Mitchell converting 5-of-7 attempts from deep for 15 first quarter points. To their credit, the Knicks took the punch and stayed steady, with some fine shooting of their own and a far better defensive effort in the second quarter. The third quarter was the best of New York’s season, as they outscored Cleveland 34-22 behind a cohesive two-way effort by the starters (plus I-Hart for most of the frame). The fourth, however, was a different story. A 20-2 mid-quarter run in which all but three points were scored or assisted by Mitchell flipped the lead and put the game out of reach.

🔢 By the Numbers: 23

That’s the number of made 3-point field goals by the Cavs on 50 attempts - the second most makes the Knicks have given up in a game in franchise history, trailing only the 26 they allowed in their 112-100 loss to the Bucks last November, which also came on 50 attempts.

This was partially a night to tip your cap at Cleveland hitting almost everything they threw up, but this was also the result of some rough breakdowns. Watching Donovan go nuclear is one thing; allowing Kevin Love to get up 13 attempts in 22 minutes (and watch him make eight, several without a Knick in the immediate vicinity) is quite another. New York needs to clean up their execution at this end of the floor if they want to have any chance against the better teams.

🔑 Key Stretch: The Knicks entered the fourth quarter with a nine-point lead and held the Cavs scoreless for the first two minutes of the final period, but because they came up empty on five consecutive offensive possessions, they couldn’t expand the lead further. It felt significant in the moment, and proved to be exactly that.

📸 Play of the Game: Unlike a mostly ugly game on Friday, this one featured several highlights. I’ll get to a bunch of them in tomorrow’s newsletter, but today’s winner has to be - who else? - the latest connection between Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin:

These guys continue to be a cheat code when they’re on the floor together, and in particular when they share the court with Isaiah Hartenstein. In 73 minutes of court time, that trio is outscoring teams by 16.5 points per 100 possessions, the top net rating of any such Knicks grouping with at least 30 minutes of court time.

About Friday Night…

FINAL: Knicks 108, Bucks 119

⌚️30 Seconds or Less: This game was a reminder that against the league’s most well-oiled machines (who often employ the rarest talents), every imperfection is amplified. The Knicks weren’t crisp out of the gate, falling behind 8-1, and were seemingly playing catch up the rest of the night. Sound defense and some poor Bucks shooting kept it close until the Knicks finally let the dam break, giving up an 18-0 in just over three minutes of third quarter action that pushed the lead to 24. New York’s reserves got them closer and had a few chances to cut the deficit to single digits, but the big shot eluded them each time. One final scoreless Milwaukee cold stretch late in the fourth kept the door open, but the Knicks’ offense couldn’t take advantage.

📸 Play of the Game: You know you’re playing a top notch defensive unit when there was really only one candidate for this. In New York’s four prior games, the number of POTG possibilities often went into the double digits. Not so on Friday night. The Bucks know exactly what you want to do, and excel as well as anyone in taking it away.

Anyway, we did get this one gem, courtesy of Immanuel Quickley’s go-go-gadget arms, some nice passing touch from Cam Reddish, and of course, Obi being Obi:

🔢 By the Numbers:

⓵ 19: Milwaukee offensive boards. New York has played two of the biggest, most physically imposing teams in the NBA in the Grizzlies and Bucks and given up 39 offensive rebounds between the two games. On the bright side, the Cavs only pulled down 10 (but that was probably because they missed so rarely).

⓶ 15: The margin in points off turnovers, thanks to a 17 to 2 advantage, in favor of the Bucks. The Knicks only gave the ball up 13 times - right in line with their season average which ranks as the 8th stingiest in the league, but they couldn’t stop Milwaukee from capitalizing.

⓷ 10: Missed free throws for New York. The 32 attempts were easily a season high, but they are yet again missing too many at the charity stripe, ranking 29th in the NBA after a dismal 8-for-16 showing last night.

⓸ 35 / 15: The collective percentages of New York’s three leading scorers from the field and from deep. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle both went 3-for-10 overall, and Brunson made the only three between them on six total attempts.

As for Barrett, he ended up with a more respectable 7-for-17 line, but his performance was arguably the most detrimental. Of his four 3-point misses in the first half, the Bucks went under screens on two of them. The third was a wide open miss from the right corner (a spot from which he hit 43.4 percent of his looks two seasons ago on the fifth most such attempts in the league) and the fourth was with a defender running at him a few feet from that same spot. The culminating effect of all these misses is a moment like we saw late in the third quarter, when the Bucks went under three screens on RJ…all on the same possession.

Even after going 3-for-4 on triples last night, RJ is still hitting just 21.9 percent of his looks from deep on over five attempts a game. For New York’s offense to have any modicum of success, Barrett needs to become a reliable converter when his teammates drive and kick to him in these situations. Speaking of which…

Quote of the Weekend

Courtesy of the head coach after the Bucks game…

New York Basketball @NBA_NewYork

"Let it go. You're open, shoot…the more RJ shoots 3s – when he comes back at night & grooves his shot – the better he shoots…lot of confidence in him…done it every year. When he starts coming back at night & shootin only 3s, his shot's great" – Thibs on RJ's slow start from 3

Thibs publicly imploring RJ to get back in the gym for late night shooting sessions was reminiscent of what he said after last year’s loss to Denver, when he not so subtly implied that Barrett hadn’t been working on his 3-point shooting as much to start last season.

The difference is that while it was unclear whether Thibs was blaming RJ or his (at the time) recent illness for the shooting woes last year, there doesn’t seem to be any beating around the bush now. Thibodeau wants his young star to put in the extra work.

🔮 Crystal Ball

There are some issues that both Milwaukee and Cleveland exposed which we know the Knicks are going to have to live with for the time being…Mitch having some problems screening and guarding more dynamic bigs, RJ missing open shots, Dr. Randle occasionally reverting back to Mr. Hyde…things of that sort.

But the play of Evan Fournier and Cam Reddish is another matter. Through six games, Evan Fournier has by far the worst defensive rating on the team at 118.4, whereas they’re giving up just 100.9 points per 100 possessions when he sits. His defense has stuck out for all the wrong reasons, and his occasional flourishes from deep aren’t enough to make up the difference.

As for Cam, after that mesmerizing fourth quarter and overtime versus the Grizzlies, it’s been more of the same thing he’s shown through his first three seasons: a glimpse here and there of tantalizing potential surrounded by far more mediocre results or worse. In 17 minutes a night since Memphis, he’s averaging 5.4 points on 42.3 percent shooting overall and 33.3 percent shooting from deep. His shot selection still leaves much to be desired:

His first shot on Friday - an off-the-dribble 18-footer with ample time left on the clock - might have been even worse.

Grimes (we hope) will be back soon, and when that happens, one of these two players will likely take his place on the bench. The smart money says it’ll be Cam, and that’s probably what he deserves. At the same time, even though he hasn’t exactly presented an airtight case to remain in the rotation, there’s an argument for giving Reddish a longer leash.

My bet: Grimes comes off the bench for a few games before taking Evan’s place in the starting five, and Fournier runs with the backups. We’ll see what happens soon enough.

💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫

This is going to be an incredibly short “Stars” section, as there’s not a single player on the team who truly deserves stars for their collective performance over the weekend. Some guys had a decent game in one or the other, but no one was very good in both, and everyone left at least something to be desired. Alas, for record-keeping purposes…

⭐️ Immanuel Quickley: Throw a dart. I thought about Julius because he’s mostly doing what we want, but he was the worst shooter on the damn team this weekend. Derrick Rose shot it well but his defense is non-existent at the moment. I could not in good conscience give it to RJ after his first half on Friday. Jalen Brunson had one very good quarter and seven that were mediocre to bad. Fournier hit half his threes, had two nice moments on defense in Cleveland…and did nothing else.

So IQ gets the nod. He was arguably their best player against the Bucks even though he wasn’t scoring, and was average at worst yesterday. I would have loved to see him get more of a shot defending Donovan. Next time, perhaps.

⭐️ ⭐️ Obi Toppin: Got pummeled a bit on the defensive glass on Friday night, and then yesterday was not nearly as in tune with Kevin Love’s whereabouts as he should have been. He had arguably his worst stretch of the season in his third/fourth quarter stint against the Cavs. Like I said, slim pickens here.

Obi takes the penultimate spot though because the bright spots continue to be very, very bright.

If you’d have told me this time last year that Obi would pull out a step-back three in a game and Thibs wouldn’t immediately pull him from the court, have a staffer accompany him to the airport, and fly him back to Dayton, I’d have called you some unpleasant names.

But here we are. Credit to him for putting in the work. Toppin is the only Knick shooting at least 50 percent overall and at least 50 percent from deep this season. That shooting prowess has seemingly made its way into opposing scouting reports, and should continue to open up the sorts of opportunities like we saw last night:

Putting everything else aside, the biggest elephant in the room for the Knicks remains what they do about Julius and Obi. Both guys deserve time. There doesn’t seem to be enough of it to go around in New York.

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Isaiah Hartenstein: The Knicks’ starting lineup is going to have a problem on their hands against the league’s best defenses.

I’ll get into this a little more below, but savvy opponents have too easy a job guarding New York’s attack when they pair their three highest usage guys with a non-shooting, non-screening center. If Robinson’s impact on the offensive glass is neutralized and teams play him for the lob, it turns into 4-on-5 on offense that’s played within a shoebox. I sung Robinson’s praises against three middling opponents last week, but these two games were 180 degrees in the opposite direction.

Hartenstein, on the other hand, injects a liveliness that New York otherwise lacks. Defenses have to pay attention to him, and it’s no small feat that the Knicks were even against Milwaukee and Cleveland in the 55 combined minutes Hartenstein was on the court vs both opponents. That alone is worth top honors here even if he did struggle on the defensive glass and with protecting the rim at times.

Reality Check

You’d be hard pressed to find a more seemingly obvious referendum on a basketball team than the one delivered to the Knicks this weekend:

It’s a star’s league, and you don’t have any.

Two nights after former two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 30, 14 & 9 without breaking much of a sweat, Donovan Mitchell gave everyone an unnecessary reminder as to why New York’s front office cancelled their summer vacation plans to try and land this guy for a cost they deemed amenable.

The reason why they (and, by association, we) stressed so much over the Mitchell sweepstakes can’t simply be expressed by the numbers, even if 38 points on 20 shots, including 8-of-13 from deep, plus a dozen assists is undoubtedly a star stat line. But it doesn’t fully encapsulate the star performance Mitchell gave.

He made it look easy. That’s what stars do. It’s why they’re stars to begin with. You can have a great defense, but there’s no defense in the world good enough to slow down the Steph’s and KD’s and Giannis’ of the world when they have it going. And while we hemmed and hawed over giving up too much for a player who isn’t a no-doubt top-15 guy, Mitchell is someone who routinely enters the “unguardable” zone. If you’re ranking the top 10 offensive talents in the sport, Donovan Mitchell is right there, knocking on the door of the upper echelon.

But we knew that, or at least, we should have. What last night drove home was how large the gap is between that level of player and the guys one or two tiers down. Jalen Brunson is, right now, arguably a top-30 scorer in the NBA. He at least has a case. Two years ago, Julius Randle was definitely in that range, and was rewarded by seeing his name on MVP ballots. Even last year, RJ, at least by the counting stats, found himself alongside some pretty glitzy names over the last three and a half months of the season.

And yet all of those players, in their professional lives, have had maybe five games combined that were on par to the sort of night Mitchell had yesterday. And for Mitchell, this game wasn’t a once-in-a-lifetime performance; it’s the sort of output he’ll toss up a dozen times a season, if not more. That’s the difference between the cream of the crop and everything else that lies just below. It’s why Mitchell went for what he did this summer, while Dejounte Murray - a fine young player who just made an All-Star team - netted a return from Atlanta that was probably less than 50 percent of what Utah eventually got from Cleveland.

Really great player. Not Donovan Mitchell.

All this is not to say, to be clear, that the Knicks blew it by not trading for him. For all the reasons we discussed at the time and will probably continue to dwell on with every big performance he puts on the Knicks (spoiler alert: more are coming), there are very real reasons why it was not the time to make this deal. Perhaps just as importantly, it’s not time to judge it, as we’ve yet to see Quentin Grimes play a minute this season.

The Knicks need Grimes, not only to look a little smarter for passing on Mitchell, but to sure up some very real ailments this team has at the moment. That brings us to the actual referendum on this team that this weekend showed: right now, they’re a defense-first team that doesn’t have the personnel they need to succeed. RJ Barrett has been miscast as a point of attack defender when he’s far better suited to wreck havoc in passing lanes away from the ball. Mitchell Robinson is a worthy backstop, but this weekend exposed his limitations against more dynamic competition. And Evan Fournier, bless his heart, simply lacks the edge this team needs from that spot.

With Grimes back, hopefully in the starting five before too long, it’ll help put everything else into place. Fournier (maybe) heads to the bench, RJ moves to a less threatening defender, and Mitch isn’t as pressured to be perfect in every way.

Just as importantly as cleaning up the defense, the Knicks also need to start hitting some shots. Grimes should help here as well, but there’s only so much he can do to help a team that currently ranks 24th in the league with a 33.8 percent conversion rate from deep.

That’s the other referendum from this weekend: if New York is going to overcome their lack of star talent, their not-quite-stars on the roster have to be able to co-exist. As of now, that looks like it’s going to be quite the uphill battle. Spacing is key in the modern game, and the Knicks top three dogs are a combined 21-of-81 from deep, with Brunson topping the group at 33.3 percent on 24 attempts.

To their credit, the Knicks have the 12th ranked offense in the league despite their putrid 3-point shooting, scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions overall. The trio of Brunson, Barrett and Randle have been even better, scoring at a clip of 114.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s encouraging, but it’s notable that those three have just a 110.2 offensive rating alongside Mitchell Robinson and a far loftier 122.7 figure with backup Isaiah Hartenstein in about a third as many minutes. Of course, the Hartenstein-led units are also hemorrhaging points, as he’s nowhere near the defender Mitch is.

And around and around we go. Ultimately, the starting five isn’t going to be able to rely on too many minutes with I-Hart to juice their offense, and will need to start doing a better job of spacing the floor themselves. New York missed all five of its 4th quarter threes last night, as it’s clear their big three generally want to operate inside the arc, and especially so when the game is on the line.

That, far more than the lack of a star like Donovan Mitchell, is the most immediate question these Knicks have to answer moving forward. Their talent, depth and toughness should be enough to keep them in most games until the last five minutes. But at the very end of tight contests against good or great teams, when opposing defenses aren’t going to allow Brunson to work his magic, how will New York respond?

Last night, they gave up a 28-8 run to start the fourth as Mitchell put the finishing touches on his masterpieces. On Friday, Brunson, Randle and Barrett combined for one meaningful field goal over the entirety of the fourth quarter. They will have to do better moving forward. On the bright side, the road will get easier, at least where scoring is concerned. Of their next six opponents, only one - Minnesota - currently ranks in the top half of the league in defense.

But as they face off against Trae Young, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant over the next 10 days, they will continued to be reminded that they are a starless franchise in a star’s league. That is fine, for now. It just means they have their work cut out for them.

Not that it should be any other way, because when is it ever around here.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter