Thanks, as ever, for the great newsletter. Let's face it, as long as Randle and Fournier are on the team they won't be very good. Neither is capable of defending in the modern NBA and they both take up much too much space offensively with unsatisfying results. Signing them is on the front office. Randle has been the elephant in the room ever since he became a Knick, even the year he was good. RJ plays much better when Randle is on the bench. Obi needs minutes to thrive. That's so obvious. Team is only fun to watch when the young guys play. I am so sick and tired of watching Julius Randle and my patience is wearing thin. Essentially this is the same team as last year and the same team has the year before as long as Randle's usage is so high. Sure Brunson helps, but Randle still insists on bringing the ball up court when he gets the rebound. Cam was a mistake. His basketball IQ is a joke, despite his obvious talent. But really the bottom line is that this team will be in play-in purgatory until Randle and Fournier find new teams.
Feeling lately there's no way out of this mediocrity and yearning to know what it feels like to have a no doubt about homegrown star. Watching Mitchell's sensational offensive aresenal last night and seeing SGA's ridiculous early stats kinda sucks. Throw in other lottery pick Obi who Knicks brass knew full well defense was not strong suit but now Thibs has a problem with that (Obi and Julius together a big no-no)? RJ, enough has been said but it will be interesting to see in the coming years how HE reconciles in his own head that he may not be the NBA star he's expected himself to be since Montverde. Also still annoyed we passed on the lottery this year, keeping it would have made giving up the future unprotecteds for Mitchell a little more palatable and could have even been included in trade like Cleveland did. We're still too good to get a top pick in upcoming draft, and NEVER count on ping pong ball luck in lottery.
That was a depressing loss to Cleveland. I don’t fault the team for losing to Milwaukee - they are a legit championship contender, no one on the roster can guard Giannis, and Jrue is built to shut down Brunson. But the Cleveland game was winnable, until… Obi checked in to start the 4th.
Notable Obi plays in the first four minutes of the 4th quarter, after a third quarter in which the Knicks starters grabbed the momentum:
11:43 - Obi out of bounds TOV
11:02 - Obi missed 3pt shot
10:39 - Obi fastbreak one on none layup blocked by Mitchell because Obi didn’t see Mitchell and dunk it
10:23 - Obi traveling TOV
9:52 - Kevin Love 3, Obi late on pick and pop
9:14 - Obi offensive Foul TOV
9:02 - Kevin Love 3, Obi late
8:06 - Kevin Love 3, Obi gives way too much space in straight one on one coverage.
Obi crapped the bed and helped Cleveland, particularly Grandpa Love, get momentum and confidence to start the fourth. Three TOVs, two missed shots (one a fastbreak layup), three poorly covered Love 3pt makes in less than four minutes. People complain about his lack of minutes - games like this are why.
You mentioned the five possessions in the fourth where the Knicks came up empty. It was mostly (all?) Obi. It is nights like this where I struggle to envision him as a starter on a playoffs team. Surely Obi wasn’t the only reason for the lost weekend, but he wouldn’t have been the guy I called my second best player either.
To be fair, no one played all that well. This is a mediocre team and I think we will regret not trading for Mitchell for a long, long time.
Oct 31, 2022·edited Oct 31, 2022Liked by Jonathan Macri
The hero ball habit returned at the end of the game. No movement and guys trying to make a play on their own. It feels like every time down it is someones turn with the ball, instead of moving it to find an open look. The starters as a group are less than the sum of their parts.
Reminded me of what depressed me watching starter minutes last year. Brunson, for all his talents, hasn't changed that so far (and it is early).
It's hard to win on the road in the NBA against good teams. So, can't get too upset about the final result of this weekend's game.
I 100% agree with your point complaining about Fournier being bad and agree we should replace him with Grimes in the starting lineup when he is back. When Thibs started camp saying Fournier was the front runner for the starting lineup, that confirmed to me yet again that he is short-term focused on winning each game rather than developing players over the course of the season so we can be better at the end of the year or in future years. Since Thibs is focused on winning, he should be judged on winning. So far, we have protected home court and he is .500. He should get the benefit of the doubt. And, if we finish the year .500 or above in a tougher eastern conference, even though I won't be excited, I think it's fair for Thibs to continue to year 4. On the other hand, if he finishes below .500 and Grimes doesn't start and Randle continues to be prioritized over Obi, Thibs has to be fired and we need to move on.
You said that "Jalen Brunson is, right now, arguably a top-30 scorer in the NBA." I think it's fair to say that while Brunson has been really good in 3 home games against lesser competition, he has not been very good in 3 road games against better competition. On offense in the road games, Brunson has struggled with the length of the opposing team and the lack of spacing. Repeating ad nauseam, but Dallas played mostly 5 out / small ball last year and Brunson severely outplayed Donovan in the playoffs. As much as I like Mitch, he totally clogs up the spacing and was bad / ineffective in both games this weekend. If Brunson is our best player, our best chance is to play lineups that maximize his effectiveness. We know what works. We need to pair him with a center that accentuates what he does well like Hartenstein for most of the time he is on the court. Thibs can keep the same minute distribution between Mitch / Hart with Mitch getting more minutes but he should start Hart so he plays with Brunson most of his time on the court. Also, when we were getting torched from 3 in the 4q yesterday, it would be nice if we could try a small ball lineup where we switch on defense.
On defense, Brunson should be embarrassed that Thibs started the game with Fournier on Donovan. Does this mean Thibs thinks Fournier is a better defender than Brunson? That's scary. Brunson was put on Dean Wade instead and was outscored by Dean F...ing Wade. Brunson needs to accept the challenge, have some pride, and man up and insist he wants to guard the opposing point guard. Then, each player can guard their own man. If Thibs relents and starts Grimes, Grimes can guard the PoA. But, definitely not Fournier.
I like your stars for Obi but agree with the other comments that he was strangely really bad in 2H yesterday. On the other hand in 1H, Randle was bad and Obi made a number of great plays. There was no reason for Thibs to take Obi out after the highlight play you clipped. We have a lot of depth but no superstar. Some nights (most nights ??), the starters are better than the bench. But, sometimes the bench outplays the starters. Thibs says it is based on merit so it would be nice if he would show flexibility to ride the hot hand rather than following pre-planned substitution patterns. Also, as you noted, Obi is shooting 50% from 3 while Randle is shooting 24%. More time with Brunson and Obi together could be good.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Love the newsletter.
The front office needs to make a decision on whether RJ or Randle is part of this team’s future. They are both good/very good players, but there is too much redundancy in what they do and don’t do well.
As you mentioned in the newsletter, the lack of spacing is a big issue, but so is their inefficiency in general. You can get away with having one guy like that out there, but having two of them playing meaningful minutes means there is less of a margin of error on defense and on the boards.
The elephant in the room is Obi Toppin, he looks damn good offensively. At this point it’s probably good enough, and diversifies the offense enough, to outweigh any drop off from Randle in defense (is there a drop off?) and rebounding. They need to start figuring out a way to find more minutes for him.
That brings us back to the first paragraph, a decision by the front office needs to be made before the start of next season. Are they going to trade Randle to clear the way for Obi, and giving RJ more room to operate without Julius, or do they stick with Randle because they think they can get a better return from a package centered around a combination of RJ and Obi?
Thanks KFS! Did you ever get lost going somewhere? Starting out on the right path. Taking a wrong turn. And, having to double back and begin your journey again. While this is year three of the Rose [Leon] rebuild, it is also a new beginning. I don't worry about what the Knicks don't have. I am glad about what they have got.
It's not all bleak. In year three, there's a competent point guard in Jalen. A (somewhat) chastened all star power forward in Ju. A stronger, more capable [still relatively young] Mitch---with Hart, a very capable back up who'll be challenging for playing time. RJ, a, frigging 22 year old, 100 million dollar wing. A promising combo guard / wing---in Grimes---who'll [hopefully] soon join the fray. A developing 6th man in IQ. Several young, talents, Obi particularly---pushing for time---and bench guys, supported by a couple of established vets---who are quite capable if deployed properly.
Lost weekend to some. For me, no. Lessons taught, by two good clubs. Hopefully our young Knicks learned a thing or two [like getting out on threes and disrupting passing lanes]. Seventy-six games to go, Knicks nation. It hurts because we so foolishly care. Thibs has to figure out what he has and what works with this group. There's time. Try to enjoy the trip! And, as always, KFS, you all are appreciated.
RJ and Quick (at least ) are showing a lot of inconsistency in free throw shooting. If the coaching staff isn't looking for ways to increase their motivation to get in more practice and thereby improve their consistency, they should take a suggestion from Wally Serbiak: Make a game of practice. He recommends free throw golf. A Swish is a birdie, a Make that touches the rim is a par, and a Miss is a double bogie.
Nothing should surprise us. The shot the Knicks had at serious improvement was trading for Mitchell. For whatever the reason, they a;lowed those negotiations to become toxic and thus pushed Ainge to being more of a creep than he normally is. So outside of Brunson and Hart, we run back the same team that won 37 games last year.
It is very clear that the Knicks have two players who are low level starters on a championship contender (Brunson, TJ) and then a half a dozen guys who would be 7th or 8th rotational guys on a championship contender in Mitch, Obi, Quickley, Hart, and maybe Grimes. Randle and Fournier would fill out the bench on said team.
The Knicks should be a lottery team and hope for some overdue luck.
And Thibs is the wrong coach for this team. They need a Kenny Atkinson type who will help develop players and take the losses and then hope to get lucky in the lottery.
I feel like the Knicks are on a gerbil’s running wheel and it’s become quite tedious.
Thanks, as ever, for the great newsletter. Let's face it, as long as Randle and Fournier are on the team they won't be very good. Neither is capable of defending in the modern NBA and they both take up much too much space offensively with unsatisfying results. Signing them is on the front office. Randle has been the elephant in the room ever since he became a Knick, even the year he was good. RJ plays much better when Randle is on the bench. Obi needs minutes to thrive. That's so obvious. Team is only fun to watch when the young guys play. I am so sick and tired of watching Julius Randle and my patience is wearing thin. Essentially this is the same team as last year and the same team has the year before as long as Randle's usage is so high. Sure Brunson helps, but Randle still insists on bringing the ball up court when he gets the rebound. Cam was a mistake. His basketball IQ is a joke, despite his obvious talent. But really the bottom line is that this team will be in play-in purgatory until Randle and Fournier find new teams.
Feeling lately there's no way out of this mediocrity and yearning to know what it feels like to have a no doubt about homegrown star. Watching Mitchell's sensational offensive aresenal last night and seeing SGA's ridiculous early stats kinda sucks. Throw in other lottery pick Obi who Knicks brass knew full well defense was not strong suit but now Thibs has a problem with that (Obi and Julius together a big no-no)? RJ, enough has been said but it will be interesting to see in the coming years how HE reconciles in his own head that he may not be the NBA star he's expected himself to be since Montverde. Also still annoyed we passed on the lottery this year, keeping it would have made giving up the future unprotecteds for Mitchell a little more palatable and could have even been included in trade like Cleveland did. We're still too good to get a top pick in upcoming draft, and NEVER count on ping pong ball luck in lottery.
That was a depressing loss to Cleveland. I don’t fault the team for losing to Milwaukee - they are a legit championship contender, no one on the roster can guard Giannis, and Jrue is built to shut down Brunson. But the Cleveland game was winnable, until… Obi checked in to start the 4th.
Notable Obi plays in the first four minutes of the 4th quarter, after a third quarter in which the Knicks starters grabbed the momentum:
11:43 - Obi out of bounds TOV
11:02 - Obi missed 3pt shot
10:39 - Obi fastbreak one on none layup blocked by Mitchell because Obi didn’t see Mitchell and dunk it
10:23 - Obi traveling TOV
9:52 - Kevin Love 3, Obi late on pick and pop
9:14 - Obi offensive Foul TOV
9:02 - Kevin Love 3, Obi late
8:06 - Kevin Love 3, Obi gives way too much space in straight one on one coverage.
Obi crapped the bed and helped Cleveland, particularly Grandpa Love, get momentum and confidence to start the fourth. Three TOVs, two missed shots (one a fastbreak layup), three poorly covered Love 3pt makes in less than four minutes. People complain about his lack of minutes - games like this are why.
You mentioned the five possessions in the fourth where the Knicks came up empty. It was mostly (all?) Obi. It is nights like this where I struggle to envision him as a starter on a playoffs team. Surely Obi wasn’t the only reason for the lost weekend, but he wouldn’t have been the guy I called my second best player either.
To be fair, no one played all that well. This is a mediocre team and I think we will regret not trading for Mitchell for a long, long time.
The hero ball habit returned at the end of the game. No movement and guys trying to make a play on their own. It feels like every time down it is someones turn with the ball, instead of moving it to find an open look. The starters as a group are less than the sum of their parts.
Reminded me of what depressed me watching starter minutes last year. Brunson, for all his talents, hasn't changed that so far (and it is early).
It's hard to win on the road in the NBA against good teams. So, can't get too upset about the final result of this weekend's game.
I 100% agree with your point complaining about Fournier being bad and agree we should replace him with Grimes in the starting lineup when he is back. When Thibs started camp saying Fournier was the front runner for the starting lineup, that confirmed to me yet again that he is short-term focused on winning each game rather than developing players over the course of the season so we can be better at the end of the year or in future years. Since Thibs is focused on winning, he should be judged on winning. So far, we have protected home court and he is .500. He should get the benefit of the doubt. And, if we finish the year .500 or above in a tougher eastern conference, even though I won't be excited, I think it's fair for Thibs to continue to year 4. On the other hand, if he finishes below .500 and Grimes doesn't start and Randle continues to be prioritized over Obi, Thibs has to be fired and we need to move on.
You said that "Jalen Brunson is, right now, arguably a top-30 scorer in the NBA." I think it's fair to say that while Brunson has been really good in 3 home games against lesser competition, he has not been very good in 3 road games against better competition. On offense in the road games, Brunson has struggled with the length of the opposing team and the lack of spacing. Repeating ad nauseam, but Dallas played mostly 5 out / small ball last year and Brunson severely outplayed Donovan in the playoffs. As much as I like Mitch, he totally clogs up the spacing and was bad / ineffective in both games this weekend. If Brunson is our best player, our best chance is to play lineups that maximize his effectiveness. We know what works. We need to pair him with a center that accentuates what he does well like Hartenstein for most of the time he is on the court. Thibs can keep the same minute distribution between Mitch / Hart with Mitch getting more minutes but he should start Hart so he plays with Brunson most of his time on the court. Also, when we were getting torched from 3 in the 4q yesterday, it would be nice if we could try a small ball lineup where we switch on defense.
On defense, Brunson should be embarrassed that Thibs started the game with Fournier on Donovan. Does this mean Thibs thinks Fournier is a better defender than Brunson? That's scary. Brunson was put on Dean Wade instead and was outscored by Dean F...ing Wade. Brunson needs to accept the challenge, have some pride, and man up and insist he wants to guard the opposing point guard. Then, each player can guard their own man. If Thibs relents and starts Grimes, Grimes can guard the PoA. But, definitely not Fournier.
I like your stars for Obi but agree with the other comments that he was strangely really bad in 2H yesterday. On the other hand in 1H, Randle was bad and Obi made a number of great plays. There was no reason for Thibs to take Obi out after the highlight play you clipped. We have a lot of depth but no superstar. Some nights (most nights ??), the starters are better than the bench. But, sometimes the bench outplays the starters. Thibs says it is based on merit so it would be nice if he would show flexibility to ride the hot hand rather than following pre-planned substitution patterns. Also, as you noted, Obi is shooting 50% from 3 while Randle is shooting 24%. More time with Brunson and Obi together could be good.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Love the newsletter.
The front office needs to make a decision on whether RJ or Randle is part of this team’s future. They are both good/very good players, but there is too much redundancy in what they do and don’t do well.
As you mentioned in the newsletter, the lack of spacing is a big issue, but so is their inefficiency in general. You can get away with having one guy like that out there, but having two of them playing meaningful minutes means there is less of a margin of error on defense and on the boards.
The elephant in the room is Obi Toppin, he looks damn good offensively. At this point it’s probably good enough, and diversifies the offense enough, to outweigh any drop off from Randle in defense (is there a drop off?) and rebounding. They need to start figuring out a way to find more minutes for him.
That brings us back to the first paragraph, a decision by the front office needs to be made before the start of next season. Are they going to trade Randle to clear the way for Obi, and giving RJ more room to operate without Julius, or do they stick with Randle because they think they can get a better return from a package centered around a combination of RJ and Obi?
Thanks KFS! Did you ever get lost going somewhere? Starting out on the right path. Taking a wrong turn. And, having to double back and begin your journey again. While this is year three of the Rose [Leon] rebuild, it is also a new beginning. I don't worry about what the Knicks don't have. I am glad about what they have got.
It's not all bleak. In year three, there's a competent point guard in Jalen. A (somewhat) chastened all star power forward in Ju. A stronger, more capable [still relatively young] Mitch---with Hart, a very capable back up who'll be challenging for playing time. RJ, a, frigging 22 year old, 100 million dollar wing. A promising combo guard / wing---in Grimes---who'll [hopefully] soon join the fray. A developing 6th man in IQ. Several young, talents, Obi particularly---pushing for time---and bench guys, supported by a couple of established vets---who are quite capable if deployed properly.
Lost weekend to some. For me, no. Lessons taught, by two good clubs. Hopefully our young Knicks learned a thing or two [like getting out on threes and disrupting passing lanes]. Seventy-six games to go, Knicks nation. It hurts because we so foolishly care. Thibs has to figure out what he has and what works with this group. There's time. Try to enjoy the trip! And, as always, KFS, you all are appreciated.
RJ and Quick (at least ) are showing a lot of inconsistency in free throw shooting. If the coaching staff isn't looking for ways to increase their motivation to get in more practice and thereby improve their consistency, they should take a suggestion from Wally Serbiak: Make a game of practice. He recommends free throw golf. A Swish is a birdie, a Make that touches the rim is a par, and a Miss is a double bogie.
Nothing should surprise us. The shot the Knicks had at serious improvement was trading for Mitchell. For whatever the reason, they a;lowed those negotiations to become toxic and thus pushed Ainge to being more of a creep than he normally is. So outside of Brunson and Hart, we run back the same team that won 37 games last year.
It is very clear that the Knicks have two players who are low level starters on a championship contender (Brunson, TJ) and then a half a dozen guys who would be 7th or 8th rotational guys on a championship contender in Mitch, Obi, Quickley, Hart, and maybe Grimes. Randle and Fournier would fill out the bench on said team.
The Knicks should be a lottery team and hope for some overdue luck.
And Thibs is the wrong coach for this team. They need a Kenny Atkinson type who will help develop players and take the losses and then hope to get lucky in the lottery.
I feel like the Knicks are on a gerbil’s running wheel and it’s become quite tedious.
I definitely enjoyed it. Keep up the good work Jon!