Redemption
Just when we thought the Knicks were fading, they showed us what kind of a team they really are.
Good morning to all fans of .500 teams that were picked to finish dead last before the season began. If you’re not a full subscriber but would like to become one, feel free to change that:
Game 54: Knicks 102, Raptors 96 - “Where is my heart medication?”
⌚️ Quick Recap: The Knicks started like a bat out of hell, especially on defense, but despite taking a double-digit first quarter lead that they eventually pushed to 18 in the third, they could never put the Raptors away, and found themselves trailing late in the final frame, but thanks to a beneficial replay and another huge shot from RJ Barrett, were able to pull out the win.
⏎ Turning Point: With just over nine minutes to go and the score tied at 81, Malachi Flynn appeared to hit a corner 3-pointer to give the Raptors a three-point lead - their largest of the game to that point. However, during a timeout with six and a half minutes to go, the refs looked at the replay and saw he was out of bounds and negated the basket.
That took what had then ballooned to a seven-point lead down to four. Seemingly given a jolt of life after a very rough offensive stretch, the Knicks scored the next nine points and got the cushion they needed to withstand one final charge by the Raps.
🔦 Play of the Game: Following a Kyle Lowry free throw and made bucket to cut Toronto’s deficit to one with under a minute to go, Julius Randle got Pascal Siakam to bite just enough as he started driving towards the hoop, and Randle kicked to RJ Barrett in the corner. Barrett drained a three to put New York up by four.
🤔 Rotation Reflections: For all the frustration Knicks fans have been caused having to watch Elfrid Payton struggle mightily this season, last night was another sign that Tom Thibodeau may be seeing the same things we are.
For the second straight night and fifth time in nine games, Elfrid Payton played under 20 minutes. That his time was limited in a night he actually hit some shots reinforced the belief that Thibs isn’t under any false pretenses about his starting guard. Whether it has to do with maintaining sanctity in the locker room or not putting too much on Derrick Rose’s shoulders at age-32, it’s pretty clear that Thibodeau feels he has to play Elf out of necessity, not preference.
And in fairness, last night his decision to keep Payton in the lineup was rewarded, as his starting point guard hit five-of-seven shots and had three dimes to one turnover. That said, Thibs still went with Alec Burks at point guard with the other four starters down the stretch.
The move paid off. Even though New York’s sixth man gave up a potentially costly turnover with 15 second remaining - one that ended up being nullified by a Pascal Siakam double dribble - he also drew a couple key shooting fouls in the last six minutes and hit a massive three to give the Knicks a five-point lead with under four to go.
📈 📉 Stat Central: Barrett was the only Knick who really had a line worth noting, as he was an efficient 7-for-12, including 3-of-6 from deep, for 19 points, five dimes and two steals. He’s playing really well, you might say.
The braided Julius Randle was only 7-for-19, but thanks to a perfect 11-for-11 from the line, he ended up with 26 to go with eight boards and five assists. He was only 1-of-8 from deep though, and is now hitting just 30 percent from deep over his last nine games.
Reggie Bullock (4-for-11), Alec Burks (2-for-9) and especially Immanuel Quickley (1-for-8) also had off nights, while Derrick Rose (4-for-10, 11 points, two assists) again had a game where he was far better to start than towards the end. Really though, it was the whole team that again got stuck in the mud, as New York allowed the Raps to go on a 40-15 run at one point in the second half.
Last but not least, Nerlens Noel was impressive in 28 minutes, scoring nine, hitting the glass 13 times (including five offensive rebounds), and swatting four Raptor shots.
👍 Good Sign: After giving up just 96 points last night, the Knicks have now given up 102 or fewer points in 12 of 17 games since the All-Star break. It’s worth noting here that in their last game, the Raptors scored 87 points…in the first half.
🔜 Next Up: Game 55 - Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks
⌚️ When: 7:30 pm, tonight @ MSG
½ Halftime Zoom: Click here to enter.
📍 Recent Games: The Lakers just defeated the Nets in Brooklyn. They’re now 5-7 without LeBron if you include the Hawks game when he went down.
🤕 Who’s Out: James and Anthony Davis will not suit up, while Marc Gasol (hamstring), Kyle Kuzma (calf) and Wesley Matthews (Achilles) are all listed as questionable .
The Redeem Team
This.
F———.
Team.
I’m not sure when exactly this version of the New York Knickerbockers graduated from “fun story” to “wow, I might be telling my grandkids about this team,” but somewhere along the first three quarters of the season, it happened.
Is that in large part because of how putrid they’ve been for most of the last 20 years? Oh yeah. But the point remains: sometimes a team just etches itself into your soul as a fan. And this one just keeps deepening the engraving, night after heart-stopping night.
They started carving their initials before the season even started, when Immanuel Quickley scored eight points in the first three and a half minutes of a game that didn’t count, and we were hooked. Ever since then, with the exception of a couple handfuls of fourth quarters when the outcome was already decided one way or another, every game this season has seemingly come down to the last five minutes.
Sure, it’s taking years off my life, but then again, what is life for if not to live through seasons like this one?
Last night was no exception, of course, because it was the Raptors - winners of nine straight against the Knicks, and the team that has reminded us perhaps more than any other of how poorly this organization had been run for some time. Kyle Lowry? Nah. Andrea Bargnani? Sure! Masai? We good. Draft and develop? No, we like Knoxing around, thank you very much.
Outside of San Antonio, they have been the gold standard for how to opperate an organization for a while, and every time they’d kick our ass - by an average of 20.4 points over those nine games, with only two by single digits - it was a not so subtle reminder: We’re a lot better at this than you are, and you should be embarrassed.
So when the Raptors came into last night with the possibility of pulling within four games of the Knicks in the standings with 18 to play, it felt like it might be the latest insult to add to the list. Then, when Toronto was being thoroughly outplayed throughout the first half but never went away, it felt like it could be a precursor to a similar heartbreak that befell New York in Minnesota last week.
And when the Raptors came allllll the way back and briefly grew the lead to seven points - or so we thought - we started to get the same vibes as we did against the Heat and Nets and Wolves. When would this team learn to play with a lead? And why must they go through a stretch of basketball every…single…game when it seems like the hoop shrinks to the size of a golf ball?
Last night it was a nine-and-a-half minute stretch over the third and fourth quarters when New York scored just five points. Five. In over nine minutes. And this team is .500 three fourths of the way through the season. Madness.
But the team that carve out a place in your heart don’t make it easy. And they aren’t conventional And they certainly don’t give you what you expect.
And that, more than anything else, is the difference between this squad and the 2012-13 team, which is the only other contender for most memorable team since the 90’s. Not only was the talent discrepancy stark, but you always knew what you were going to get with that team: Melo being Melo, a lot of veteran savvy, and a ton of 3-pointers.
This team isn’t nearly as good as that one, and they’re a mixed bag every night, but they never leave you bored, for better or for worse.
And while they don’t have a Carmelo Anthony leading the way, slowly but surely, a leader of the pack is emerging. And unlike Melo, RJ Barrett is someone who has never played for another organization, and at the rate he’s going, hopefully never will.
Watching a young player you drafted make “the leap” in real time obviously adds to the magic of a season like this one, but it’s also not the thing I think I’ll wind up associating most with this team.
No, for me, more than anything, the indelible characteristic of this iteration of the New York Knicks is simply this: grit. Gritted teeth, gritty stops, gritted out offensive possessions, gritty comebacks, and most of all, a gritty, grizzled coach who wasn’t about to take his dream job for granted.
And low and behold, Tom Thibodeau - faults, thick-headedness and all - has gotten us here, right in the mix, with just a quarter of the season to go.
Beating Toronto, and perhaps even beating them in the way the Knicks did, was a necessary step in their progression. What comes next? Will it be pretty all the way through to the end? Will they reach their stated goal of the playoffs, something that has become a holy grail for an organization that has long been steeped in sin?
We don’t have a clue as to the answers to these questions.
And that is what makes this season the most magical we’ve seen in over 20 years. 54 games in, and we still don’t quite know what to make of this team, but I do know that they’ve made me feel like the last two decades were worth it to get to this point. Redemption is only sweet after its been earned, after all.
Sanity be damned.
This. F——-. Team.
About Friday Night…
In case you missed Saturday’s newsletter recapping the Memphis win, the Knicks came out sluggish and slow. Derrick Rose was the only guy who came to play in the first half, scoring 13 vital points and leading a bench unit that provided a bit of a spark, but the game was characterized by Grizzly counterpunches more than anything else. Thanks to six late points by RJ Barrett though, including 4-for-4 from the line, the Knicks sent it to OT, when New York went 3-for-3 from behind the arc and took the W. It was arguably the best win of the season, and probably in several years.
Rose, Obi & Tom Thibodeau’s Dilemma
It’s hard to argue that the play of the weekend (non-RJ division) wasn’t this rim-rattling put-back dunk on Saturday night, which came courtesy of the young man from Brooklyn by way of Dayton, Ohio:
The bench reaction says it all.
This got the Knicks closer than they’d been since the beginning of the third quarter, and even though the lead would again balloon back to 13, this was one of many shots in the arm that kept the game feeling like one New York could steal.
But it wasn’t the most important moment of the game for Obi Toppin, at least not where his long term outlook is concerned. That came a few minutes later, on a play that’s unlikely to make his highlight reel:
After initially failing to box out Brandon Clarke, the ball caroms off the rim and Toppin, instead of coming down with the board, merely tips it out to Xavier Tillman, who puts it back up and in for the and-one. As you can see at the tail end of the possession, Derrick Rose made sure Toppin heard about it.
“Keep rebounding, we need your rebounding!” That’s how Obi remembers it, as he relayed the play to the media on Sunday afternoon. “Him doing that just pushed me.”
Apparently it didn’t push him quite hard enough, as a few minutes later, both Rose and Taj Gibson got in Toppin’s ear after a similar miscue:
You could say this is life in the NBA as a rookie, but the truth is that this sort of vocal accountability isn’t always present for young players, especially ones taken in the top 10.
Think back to Kevin Knox, who had carte blanche to do whatever he pleased as a rookie. Who had the standing to speak up on that team? And even if someone did, the games didn’t matter in the slightest. It’s how a first year player with some fairly decent counting stats can wind up where he is. He never learned a damn thing about winning.
Whether Toppin eventually benefits from the tough love he’s being shown remains to be seen, but at the very least, he seems to appreciate the fact that real care and concern isn’t always warm and cuddly. “Derrick is a great vet,” Toppin said about the former MVP. “He pushes each and every one of us to be better every single day. Even during games, he’ll talk to me and Quick to tell us things that we can do to help our team win.”
Sure enough, a few plays later, Toppin had another opportunity to grab a board, and even though he didn’t come down with it himself, neither did Clarke:
Obi left the game shortly thereafter, but it was nice to see him go out on a high note. Even better was the fact that he played nearly 15 minutes in total - the most he’s seen in a non-blowout since January 24 - and was a solid if uneven contributor in that time.
The fact that 15 minutes is a total on the high side for Toppin just reinforces how important it is that he makes the most of the time he’s given1. It’s part of the reason why, for as much as Derrick Rose may be playing the role of vet leader and wise old2 sage, his role as a point guard who can get the damn ball to Toppin in situations he can do something with it is far more important.
A great example of this came on Friday night. The pinpoint accuracy of Rose to thread the needle here is not something any other player on this team possesses:
Rewarding the big man for running the floor hard and allowing him to flash his coordination, which he needs every bit of to reach back and grab this without breaking his stride, is exactly what we imagine when we think of what development looks like in action.
It’s been a not so subtle talking point over the course of the season that no player benefits from their time on the court with Rose more than Toppin. This is backed up by the fact that when the pair shares the court, the Knicks have blitzed opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions. They seem to have developed a legitimate on-court chemistry.
And thanks to our friends at PBPStats.com, we can actually see whether that’s true. Turns out that Obi is just slightly below the top of the list of guys who see their efficiency improve the most playing with the former league MVP. Here’s every Knicks who played at least 20 minutes with Rose heading into last night:
As you can see, Toppin benefits immensely from playing with Rose, seeing his effective field goal percentage rise by 6.6 percent.
Here’s the issue: the two other players who see their eFG% jump are the team’s preeminent cornerstones: Rowan Alexander Barrett Jr, whose number increases by 7.1 percent, and Julius Randle, who sees a 3.0 percent increase.
On the flip side, both Immanuel Quickley (2.9 percent decrease) and Alec Burks (7.6 percent decrease) see their numbers decline when they’re on the floor with Rose. These are all very limited sample sizes, but it’s interesting nonetheless. Obi, Randle and RJ are all players who pretty clearly benefit from having a more dynamic guard like Derrick there to help put additional pressure on the defense, whereas Burks and Quickley seem to thrive with the ball in their hands more, not less.
Obviously it would require some Olympic-level substitution pattern gymnastics from Thibs to take this data and turn it into meaningful rotations patterns, but here’s one suggested flow that might work:
Quick hook Elf so Rose gets run with the starters somewhat early in the first and third (which is sort of already happening). Then sub in Burks for Bullock shortly thereafter.
Pull Randle earlier, maybe with a few minutes left in the first. This gets him more rest and gets Obi on the floor with not only Rose but also RJ, with whom he has played just 80 minutes with all season.
Bring in Quickley for RJ to start the second, and then after a few minutes, bring in Bullock to replace Rose. This gets you some time where IQ and Burks can do their thing and at least maximizes the shooting on the floor for when Obi doesn’t get the benefit of playing with Rose.
Sub in Randle for Toppin a few minutes after that, and RJ for Burks shortly thereafter. This fills the nightly diet of Quickley as the primary flanked by the team’s two best players.
If things are rolling, leave as is. If not, you have the option to sub in either Rose, Burks or both for Quickley and/or Bullock.
The drawback here is that it’s a lot of moving parts, and the respective units might not have as much time to gel as you’d like. An obvious answer is “start Rose,” especially given the almost comical difference in when RJ and Julius play with Derrick (positive 10.2 net rating) and when they play with Elf (negative 1.7, albeit in a sample size six times as large), but then it becomes more difficult to get Rose time with Obi, so there’s really no easy answers here.
All in all, the kinship Derrick Rose and Obi Toppin have developed together is very important for both the present and future, but the current version of the Knicks also seems at its best when Rose is getting time with the best players on the team.
Just add this to the list of difficult decisions Tom Thibodeau has to make going forward. Then again, I’m betting he wouldn’t want it any other way.
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe for free to JB’s Metropolitan. See everyone soon! #BlackLivesMatter
Case in point: Toppin played a grand total of five minutes last night, as Thibs went to Kevin Knox in the second half to help combat the Raptor’s zone defense.
Yes I’m aware I’m nearly six years older than Rose, and it makes me cry on the inside.
Thibs just has a panic attack anytime the other team scores and Randle isn’t on the floor. Nice story though.
Another solution, get a better starting PG. :)