State of the Union

John Schmeelk guest authors today's overarching look at where the Knicks go from here.

Good morning! Very excited to share today’s guest piece to start off the week, courtesy of my good friend John Schmeelk. John has found the time to guest author a few newsletters over the years when he isn’t covering the local football team, and this is up there with any of them, giving a 10,000 foot view of where things stand and where the Knicks go from here.

Before we get there though, here’s a quick roundup of the weekend’s news, which I’ll have some more commentary on over the course of the week:

• Yahoo’s Vince Goodwill had a revealing behind the scenes report about how the firing of Tom Thibodeau went down. He described the process as “spearheaded by Knicks owner James Dolan,” with Leon Rose taking “a secondary role.” In exit meetings, there were some gripes about too many minutes and one player who stated he “didn’t feel like he could play for Thibodeau” if the coach returned.

• As of late Friday night, the Knicks still hadn’t requested permission from the Mavs to speak with Jason Kidd, although Mark Stein reported that such a request is coming. No word yet on whether such a request would be granted if it is made.

• Per Ian Begley, Ime Udoka and Chris Finch remain candidates of interest.

• Jay Wright will not be the next Knicks head coach.

• The Bucks are operating as if Giannis will be back.

• Precious Achiuwa and the Knicks were not a match made in heaven last year according to Steve Popper, with each side unhappy with the other. He’s unlikely to be back.

• And finally, Jalen Brunson IG’d a photo seeming to show support for his ex-coach.

If any news breaks throughout the week, be sure to check your email for a live chat notification from me, and as always, tune into the KFS YouTube channel for emergency livestreams when something big goes down.

State of the Union

by John Schmeelk

When Jon told me I could write something for Knicks Film School last weekend, it was supposed to be a story analyzing the season and figuring out how it should be viewed. Every fan will look at it a bit differently, which is fine, but the point was to try to figure out how Leon Rose, James Dolan and the rest of the front office viewed it, which would then dictate what the offseason might look like from a roster building perspective.

That exercise, however, now appears to be pointless because we now know a lot about how the season was viewed internally because Tom Thibodeau is no longer the head coach. Leon Rose was not satisfied. It was not good enough

Here’s what we know. After the season, the Knicks went into an evaluation period of the team and coaching staff. Ian Begley reported on The Putback earlier in the week that the season’s exit interviews with the team’s key players included ownership and the subsequent evaluation took place through the lens of whether those discussed were a positive factor towards winning a championship and nothing else.

There is never any reason to doubt Begley’s reporting, and logic does line up with the decision to move on from Thibodeau. In any traditional evaluation of success, it would have been hard to make the case to move on from the coach that helped elevate the team from a 20-year abyss, winning 50 games for two straight seasons, being one of the final three teams standing and being a historic blown lead in Game 1 away from a Game 7 at MSG and a potential trip to the NBA Finals. Tom Thibodeau is a very good NBA coach that consistently wins a ton of games.

But this decision, from what I have been able to gleam from the reporting out there, has much less to do with past performance than future returns. Tom Thibodeau has often been viewed as a floor-raiser, and when I praised his hiring five years ago, I openly wondered whether he would be the person to lead the Knicks to a title. I had little doubt he would make them competent again, which happened a lot quicker than anyone expected. But given his stubborn adherence to certain tried and true principles - but also and more significant in this circumstance, schematics and theories of play - there was justified concern as to whether he could maximize a roster ready to win championship with the way the NBA game is now played. I’m sure the front office also craved a coach that would be more willing to collaborate with them on ideas of how to alter strategy to improve results.

I have as little clue as to who the Knicks are going to hire as anyone else. The current situation, which is one of the reasons I would have probably held onto Thibodeau, points to no obvious replacement that has proven they can elevate a team to a championship level in the NBA beyond what the former coach was capable of. Leon Rose has proven that when it comes to front office hires, when there are no limitations like the salary cap, he has hired the right people, whether it is Walt Perrin to lead college scouting, Brock Aller to run the salary cap or even bringing Casey Smith and his Mvericks staff in to run medical. All of those people were widely considered to be at the top of their profession.

Jon, the Film School Faculty and the various insiders and beat reporters will do a fine job evaluating who might be the next head coach. That’s not why I am writing here today. Rose has taken a big risk in moving on from a tried and true coach and trying to replace him with someone that might be better. We will see who he selects.

What I do think is an interesting exercise is to take the same lens the Knicks used to decide whether to move on from their head coach and use it to look at the roster to determine what move may be next.

Other than Jalen Brunson, who understandably will not be going anywhere, I am not going to take any loyalty within the organization or dating back to CAA into consideration. Given how close Rose was to Thibodeau, if he was willing to move on from him, then no one is safe. The decision to move Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle last year would also fall into this category. It seems pretty clear that winning the championship is the only goal right now and all other priorities have been pushed aside. The question now remains who on this roster might be holding them back from reaching that goal?

I prefer to work in large sample sizes since the playoffs can skew statistics a lot in fewer games against specific opponents due to matchups. Since January 1st, the Knicks were 16th in both offensive and defensive rating during the regular season. They were 7th and 8th in those categories in the playoffs. Even accounting for the Jalen Brunson injury, that’s not good enough, and could very well be a bigger picture reason the Knicks decided to move on from Thibodeau.

Throughout the postseason, issues on offense and defense sprung up depending on the matchup. The Knicks were a more talented team than those overall rankings would indicate, in the same way they were probably more talented than Indiana, but still lost the series. Did the coach maximize the talent available to him?

Much like Thibodeau did not get fired for individual decisions like not playing Deuce McBride more in place of Josh Hart, I don’t think the front office will obsess over those types of micro-issues when deciding their next move. Instead, they will likely look at their structural makeup and figure out what parts of it are holding the franchise back.

The easy way to think of it is this: when another team gets ready to play the Knicks, what are the weaknesses they are targeting that dictate how they attack New York’s offense and defense? Let’s start on defense, given those struggles are what cost the Knicks in the playoffs against the Indiana Pacers more than anything else.

The Pacers, just like every other team in the NBA, looked at the Knicks defense, took the red sharpie out, and circled two names: Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players have defensive deficiencies but in slightly different ways. Brunson’s main issues are physical, with a lack of speed, quickness, and length. For the most part, the effort is there and he understands his assignments, though there were games in the Indiana series where execution on his hedge and returns was truly lacking.

Historically, NBA teams have been able to get away with covering for one poor defending guard in their starting lineup. The Pacers accomplished that feat with Tyrese Haliburton, who is also a defensive liability. Brunson’s value as the team’s Captain and his efficient scoring also makes any thought of trading him away or limiting his playing time a complete non-starter. He is a no-brainer top ten NBA player, 2nd team All-NBA honoree, and closes games as well as if not better than anyone in the league.

Aside from Karl-Anthony Towns, who we will get to in a second, teams are not targeting anyone else on the roster who plays prominent minutes. Could Mikal Bridges have been better against navigating screens against smaller and quicker guards? Absolutely. But pick and roll defense is a team concept. That teams were consistently trying to get Bridges off their primarily ball handler with screens should tell you all you need to know.

Karl-Anthony Towns is the elephant in the room. A seven-footer’s defense is always going to be more critical and impactful than a 6'0" point guard. Towns' issues on defense stem from a few different things. The first is a lack of elite athleticism, specifically leaping ability and a general fluidity. He doesn't protect the rim well or work well in space. To his credit though, he does flash the ability to switch onto smaller defenders from time to time.

The bigger issue with Towns is with the mental and instinctual side of defense. In addition to the lack of lift, his lack of instincts to put himself in the right position limits his ability to protect the rim. That same lack of instincts also makes it difficult to play drop in pick and roll coverage when the big has to mind the ball-handler and roller simultaneously. These issues also pop up when it comes to rotating quickly on defense when it is needed.

More discouraging are his mental lapses. These became glaringly obvious in the playoffs when he either completely disregarded the defensive game plan or failed to execute it properly. He wouldn’t step up far enough in pick and roll coverage, allowing open threes and earning glares from his teammates in the process. There were other times his teammates were clearly expecting him to switch but he failed to. Based on the reporting, the Knicks had to call multiple team meetings to address these issues throughout the playoffs.

His foul issues (on offense and defense) also indicate a lack of focus and discipline. He randomly grabs players for no reason, many times gaining him no advantage on a play. There are pushes in the back on rebounds or off the ball that make no sense. He does not always play smart basketball.

Some of these issues, like how you use him in pick and roll coverage, could be helped by a new coach. But many of them, specifically the discipline, instinctual and mental issues, have plagued him since his days in Minnesota. I see little reason to think those are going to be fixed by Thibodeau’s replacement.

Could his defensive weaknesses be mitigated by playing him with a center like Mitchell Robinson? Yes. But that brings other problems. He would then have to guard more athletic stretch fours that could exploit him on the perimeter. Teams can still bring him into pick and roll actions at their leisure.

The biggest impact, however, would be on his offense. If Towns starts with Robinson, he would never have a center guard him when they are on the floor together. Getting opposing centers on Towns is part of what makes him such an impactful offensive player. Towns putting opposing centers in pick and rolls with Brunson was one of the most efficient plays in basketball last year. Towns can also use his straight ahead drive skills to drive past those larger defenders, or space enough to find open three pointers.

History has shown that those advantages can often disappear when Towns is at power forward. If he is going to be guarded by an athletic power forward or a wing, teams will just switch the Brunson/KAT pick and roll, lessening its impact. Teams have also figured out how to limit KAT’s one-on-one ability by putting a wing on him. He can’t find open threes and struggles to drive around those players consistently. Most important, his post game and offensive rebounding has not proven dominant enough to take advantage of those mismatches.

The main player opposing teams “target” when they game-plan for the Knicks offense is Josh Hart. They are able to play a wing on Towns because he is unable to take advantage of a center guarding him consistently enough. Hart makes up for this in other ways, like his ability to get out in transition, rebound and do all the little things that don’t show up in the box score. With a new coach, Josh’s minutes might get reduced in favor of a player who can shoot a bit better, but with a very reasonable contract that averages only 20 million dollars a year, he still brings a lot to the team and will be a large part of what the Knicks do.

Aside from selecting the new head coach, the Knicks have three main decisions to make when it comes to their roster. We already discussed the dichotomy of Karl-Anthony Towns, a ridiculously talented and effective offensive player that was deservingly voted 3rd Team All-NBA. Can you maximize his offensive skills and minimize his defensive shortcomings to the point where he can help you win a title? Is this possible or is it a fantasy that will never be realized? In the postseason, the Knicks often looked better with Mitchell Robinson on the floor instead of Towns. Is that a product of Tom Thibodeau and his coaching style or just the reality of the two players on this Knicks roster?

The Knicks have to come to terms with the Towns dilemma, which will be the linchpin of their offseason. It will be easy to simply run it back with a new coach and see if a second year with the Knicks will make a difference for Towns. The fact that the same issues haunted KAT’s career before arriving in New York should raise real questions about whether figuring it out is likely, even giving the benefit of the doubt that rarely gel completely in their first season together. The Knicks are operating in a 2-3 year window, so wasting any time could be costly, which was probably another reason they moved on from Thibodeau now, rather than waiting another year. Kevin Durant is going to be made available this offseason and Towns is a logical trade fit from a contract and skillset perspective, though recent reports out of Phoenix suggest a swap like that would not interest the Suns.

The second question revolves around Mikal Bridges, who had some very frustrating moments in his first season as a Knick. The total point production should not be one of those given he has to share third option duties with OG Anunoby. There are only so many shots to go around. But how he got those points is a bit more concerning.

After averaging around four free throws per game the last two years he dropped down to only 1.4 with the Knicks, his lowest rate since his rookie year. He consistently eschewed contact around the hoop and passed on layups for fadeaway jumpers. His three point shooting dropped to its worst number since his rookie season (.354), 1.7% off from this career average.

On the other hand, he was dynamite from mid-range, which allowed him to shoot 50% from the field for the first time since 2022. He set a new career high for assists per game (3.7).

While his screen navigation guarding smaller and quicker guards left something to be desired in the regular season, many of those issues could have also been caused by not having consistent support from the big who was guarding the screener stepping up far enough to give the appropriate help.

While Bridges did have some of those same frustrating moments in the playoffs, he also made several game-winning defensive plays and showed that his help and one-on-one defense, especially against wings, was still close to elite. He also played his best in the biggest moments, making several critical shots late in games and carrying the offense as the primary ball-handler when Jalen Brunson was off the court. He feasted with his mid-range jumper in the first two rounds and with his post-up game against Tyrese Haliburton. The Knicks might not beat the Celtics without him. The ability to score in those middle areas of the floor become more important in the postseason.

Bridges is heading into the final year of his contract and can make as much as 156 million dollars over four years on an extension. You can argue about how much money Bridges is worth but there is no arguing that the Knicks have only two options with Bridges: extend him or trade him. If they simply let him walk after next season, they do not gain any cap room to replace his $25 million salary slot.

The Knicks should not extend Bridges just because they traded five first round picks for him. Don’t get sucked into the sunk cost fallacy. Those picks are gone. They need to either find a number that works for both sides, and if that’s not possible, trade him for a piece that will give the Knicks a better chance to win a championship next year. Trading him for picks makes no sense unless those would be turned around in a trade for Giannis Atentokoumpo.

I find it unlikely that the Knicks will find a player better than Bridges in that 25 million dollar salary slot, though turning him into two players is something that could be advantageous if they are impactful enough. I would suspect the Knicks will extend Bridges if he is willing to sign one, after which a primary focus of the new coach would surely be to get more out of him offensively and turn around some of the frustrating parts of his game. All of this is fixable.

It’s also important to note that Bridges is the perfect third option for the Knicks. He can defend the guards Brunson can’t, hit threes at a high enough rate, and has the ability to be the centerpiece of the offense when Brunson is on the bench. Anunoby also fits well as the Knicks third option. Are there enough shots to go around to get the most out of both of them as the team’s 3rd and 4th options and keep them happy? It’s a fair question that could guide the offseason.

The other decision concerns Mitchell Robinson, who is heading into the final year of his contract where he makes only 13 million dollars. Even accepting that he has had injury issues throughout his career, it’s an outrageous bargain given how he played in the playoffs, where he often dominated his minutes. If the Knicks move Towns, Mitch becomes critical to keep. If the Knicks keep Towns and decide his best fit is at center, does moving Robinson to improve a different spot on the roster make sense? The Knicks also have to manage the second apron and repeater tax in future years with both potential extensions for Robinson and Bridges.

The easy path for the Knicks is to bring back all the main cogs of the roster, extend Bridges and Robinson, and use the taxpayer mid-level exception to improve the bench. Developing the three rookies (Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet, Ariel Hukporti) and getting them into the rotation heading into their second seasons would also be critical to improving the roster. I would also see if players like Delon Wright, Landry Shamet and even PJ Tucker would be willing to return on veteran minimum contracts.

The Knicks chose not to do the easy thing with Tom Thibodeau so I wonder if they would make a similar decision with the roster and prioritize changes that they think can put them over the top. The Antetokounmpo decision will be the first one that will shape the NBA offseason. Does he request a trade? Does he demand a trade to a specific location? Every team in the NBA would make a phone call on him, and the only likely way the Knicks can field a competitive offer with their lack of pick capital would be if he specifies the Knicks as the only place he would sign a contract extension.

The only other option for the Knicks to get Giannis would be to bring in additional teams in trades to turn their players into picks or players that would interest Miwaukee. This gets very complicated very quickly and the Knicks should follow several ground rules when deciding if a Giannis trade makes sense.

I don’t love the trio of Giannis, Brunson and KAT. Offensively, the trio might be the best in the league, but if KAT remains on the team, that means Bridges, Anunoby and probably Robinson, Hart and/or Deuce were all sent out to make the trade. It would leave the Knicks with no wing defenders - heck, wing players - that could defense. The team would not be able to win at the highest level.

Any Antetokounmpo trade would necessitate KAT being sent out. Would KAT, Bridges or Anunoby and Deuce or Hart be enough to make a trade like that work? It might not be, but I’m not sure the Knicks could afford to make a trade giving up more and field a team with a real chance to win a championship. Anunoby or Bridges would have to still be on the roster. It shows how difficult making a trade like that would be.

Pushing that unlikely scenario aside, the Knicks would have to decide if they have a better chance of winning a championship in the next two seasons with Kevin Durant entering his age 37 season or with Karl-Anthony Towns. The Suns are looking for players, not picks, in return for Durant, and Towns and Booker fit from an age, play and personality perspective. Towns and Durant’s salaries are also close enough to make a trade like that easier to finalize. But, as I mentioned before, if Towns is of little interest to the Suns, I’m not sure a Durant trade makes sense.

When three elite scorers come together you begin to see diminishing returns. The third leading scorer on an NBA team is not going to average much more than 21 points per game. Just look at Klay Thompson’s and Chris Bosh’s scoring average when they were the third bananas on their super-teams. The leading scorers on those teams also never averaged more than 27 points per game. Thompson and Bosh were very impactful players on defense, something few would say about Brunson, Towns and a 37-year-old Kevin Durant.

Aside from a Durant or Giannis swap, I’m not sure there is a trade out there for Towns that makes sense. You would have to take back multiple players to match his $53 million contract next year and obey apron rules. A trade like that would be tough to put together but not impossible. If you can get a center and wing or guard back on the level of Bridges and Anunoby it would be worth exploring. I think the Knicks would still have enough scoring, and their defense would be much improved.

A potential trade of Bridges makes it tough to find a better player that matches his salary. Looking at the players who make $25 million in 2025-2026, I don't see a clear trade target that makes the Knicks better. Could the Knicks aggregate Bridges with Robinson or Hart and consolidate them into a better player? Sure, but then they hurt their depth and become even more of a top heavy roster, which probably does more harm than good. As mentioned previously, turning Bridges into multiple pieces might make more sense, but finding them and making the salary work could be even more difficult.

This is going to be Leon Rose’s most significant and impactful offseason as the Knicks main decision maker. He has gotten the Knicks right below the peak of the mountain, but the last couple hundred feet are often the toughest to traverse. With apron rules, a lack of draft picks, and no head coach, he is no longer ripe with assets. He cannot afford any mistakes. He must take full advantage of this window where the Knicks have the talent to be in the championship conversation. The pressure is squarely on his shoulders.

What would I do? I would make every decision understanding I am trying to build a championship winning team, and not simply make it about acquiring the most talent.

Assuming Giannis is not coming under the parameters I described, I would trade Towns for Durant if the Suns would agree to it. I would extend Bridges and Robinson. I love a starting lineup of Brunson/Bridges/Durant/Anunoby/Robinson with Hart and McBride as the main bench cogs. It would be an extremely versatile defensive team that could play four out with Robinson as a roll-man and offensive rebound threat. Spend the tax payer mid-level to improve the bench, try to bring back some veterans on minimum contracts and hope the second-year players develop.

But if the Durant and Giannis trades never materialize, things become much more difficult. It might make the most sense to return Towns and go about improving the bench and depth with the hopes a new coach can maximize the talent on the roster better. I would not have a problem with that decision either. If the trade market never develops the way Rose hopes, this may be the only logical path to take.

I would explore my options with Towns and Bridges, especially if the latter does not sign his extension. Anunoby should be good enough to be the third option on this team, especially if Bridges can return one good scorer and more help in a trade return. I would also see if Josh Hart could be turned into more helpful pieces. There are so many potential trades and permutations here that they are impossible to analyze in-depth, but Rose should look at his options.

The tick tock of the Knicks title clock must be echoing in the brain of Leon Rose. Windows do not stay open in the NBA for long and with a new head coach coming in and potential paths to move some top players before the Knicks hit the second apron, this might be Rose’s last chance to put a true contender together for the Knicks.

Best not screw it up.

John Schmeelk is the pregame & postgame voice and the official podcast host of the New York Giants. He also does play-by-play and sideline reporting for the Northeast Conference. You can hear his thoughts on the Knicks regularly on the KFS Pod. He is a longtime Yankees fan.

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“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”