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Martin Melamed's avatar

Terrific piece by a great writer. It’s interesting that John S is opining Leon as the catalyst for the coaching change, while Jon M starts the newsletter with more updates that this was Dolan’s move. The next move by us will take a clear vision of what our championship team would have to look like, and the patience to wait out the best option. Please let it be Leon. Pretty please may there be no reciprocity here. The Giants are messy enough without a Macri piece. I do love you Jon.

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Dbn123's avatar

This was a great article from my favorite NY Giants writer. And John shows impressive knowledge about the Knicks.

I wholeheartedly agree with John’s analysis, particularly the point about Towns being a key factor in the team not reaching the finals or even winning a championship. John astutely raises the question of what trade would realistically improve the Knicks. While I, too, would trade Towns for Durant without hesitation, I can understand why the Suns would be reluctant to agree to that.

Regarding Bridges, I believe extending his contract and keeping him would be a wise move. He's a valuable team player, capable of being the third-best player on a top-tier team, and his consistent availability is a significant asset that shouldn't be undervalued.

Finally, on the topic of Thibs, I had a feeling Dolan was involved in that decision. Rose typically plans several steps ahead before making any significant moves. This particular firing seems more impulsive, which feels like Dolan's style: ready, fire, aim.

As things stand, Thibs is probably the best coaching option available unless the Knicks can shake Kidd lose.

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Mikep@mepressman.com's avatar

Reeks of Dolan. Wouldn't trade Bridges

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Eben's avatar

I wonder if Kevin McCullers can be a sleeper? He was hurt to begin the season and when he played in Westchester, he showed some things but it's hard to translate no defense G League performance to understand how he will play on the first squad. He was a 3 and D in college at Kansas, his injury scared everyone off and he fell to us. Can we make the most of him? I have more faith in him than Dadiet.

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Jon Heller's avatar

We’re at the point where Knicks for Clicks is at its peak and will continue to be throughout the offseason. Vince Goodwill is a great journalist and I respect his work, but has he ever broken a Knicks story? Not really sure I’m going with his “sources” here, maybe a player spoke to him and that part of it I can believe. Trying to stick to the main Knicks guys to believe any reporting out of the Knicks camp right now. X is a dangerous place…

Thought John was using sound logic to his article and appreciated the words. Per usual, thought it was a little harsh on KAT. His defensive lapses are certainly maddening. However, he had the best plus minus of any starter over the playoffs (this should have been mentioned) He won at least 2 games with his offensive brilliance and was hardly ever put on the floor with a lineup that gave him the most advantageous matchups. The Brunson / KAT PnR decline after New Years is what ultimately got Thibs fired. A lot of that has to do with his lineups and insisting on Hart playing 35 mins a game. Trading KAT impulsively for a guy like KD doesn’t feel amazing to me. Giannis, I can understand, but that seems far unrealistic due to cap situation and assets + unlikely due to him prob staying.

As we have all said, none of us envy Leon’s position this offseason. One thing that is clear from watching the finals, is that we need a true backup point guard who can playmaker and create their own shot. I’m not sure the “beloved” Kolek gets there in year 2 but it is absolutely needed.

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JD Mamo's avatar

John is amazing. Love his Giants content as well. His analysis on Towns is exactly what my friends and I have been talking about for weeks. I guess it’s curious what the front office envisioned on defense? It’s maddening how he just has brain farts on D continually and won’t hustle up and down the court but is an absolute virtuoso at times on the offensive end. If we keep towns, we need to figure out how to maximize his efficiency on offense and stagger his minutes with Brunson. Otherwise I don’t see this working. With Bridges, extending him at 40m per can’t make sense. We will have two players at 40m and then Towns at 60m, the front office will have zero ability to spend for depth or to add any pieces. I therefore think the Knicks will trade one of OG, Towns, or MB this summer or in the future. I think we could get the most value for MB but I think trading Towns because of his defensive liabilities and horrible contract probably makes the most sense. I think I could get behind a KAT for KD swap bur seems like PHX would not be interested.

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Peterobin Sunshine-fuhry's avatar

That's a thoughtful piece, and it really highlights the difficulties Leon and co face going forward.

My theory of basketball, which I've never seen disproven, is that great teams need the following skills on the floor for as close to 48 minutes as possible:

1. Interior defenders

2. Perimeter defenders

3. Rebounders

4. Floor generals (starter and a backup)

5. Penetrators/Facilitators

6. Scorers that can hit tough shots even when the defense is locked in

7. Secondary creators (ball movers)

8. Off-ball players (moving without the ball)

9. 3 point shooters with range beyond the arc

The order I put them in is largely irrelevant. If you don't have all these things then it doesn't matter how "talented" some of your players are. Most fans and GMs for that matter seem to think that collecting scorers makes you a great team. That can make you a good team that gets eliminated by a great team in the playoffs. Or a team that has a hot start to the year and gets solved by the good teams by the second half of the season. Sound familiar?

There are only 5 guys on the floor at a time, so some or all of them have to have multiple of these skills if you're going to complete the chain. No team is perfect and very few players have ALL these skills, so you do the best you can to fill everything in.

With regard to the Knicks, they lost iHart (skills 1,3,7) and Randle (skills 3,5,6) and Donte (9,8, 2-kinda). They brought in Mikal (2,6,8), and KAT (3,6,9-kinda).

So compared to the January 2024 team, this year's team lacked in #1 (only OG until Mitch came back) , Lacked in #5 (Brunson is the only one great at it, the others like to drive but aren't great facilitators on the move), and lacked in #9 (Kat's ability there turned out to be mostly theoretical).

Thibs, bless his heart, will never accept that a player can't fill one of these skills, so he'll keep pushing, rather than exchange pieces. And it makes it harder when guys have a track record of being successful starters in the league. I think Thibs sat Payton and Kemba and Fournier and Rose only when he reached desperation.

So it's a problematic roster. If there's a solution, Thibs is not the guy to find it, it's just not in his DNA, like it's not in KAT's DNA to play drop and it's not in Mikal's DNA to hunt 3s.

I thought they were going to keep Thibs, and deprive him of one of his trio of interior-loving small forwards. But they jettisoned Thibs, so to me that tells me they don't want to be hamstrung by Thibs' peculiarities when deciding what to do with the roster.

Hey, if you could trade KAT and Mikal and Kolek and Dadiet for Giannis and Kuzma, and then re-sign Delon Wright and not Cam Payne, you could provide Thibs with the balanced roster that fits with his trust hierarchy. But KAT was considered an enigma for 10 years with the Timberwolves, and if he's on the block now, Giannis seems like a pipe dream. If the Phoenix suns don't want to trade 37 year old Durant for him, even if they change their tune, it tells you Kat's value is well below his salary.

So the idea of getting a roster that works for Thibs may seem like an impossible task to the FO, and attempting to do so could squander Brunson's prime. The Knicks may have just made the strategic decision that another coach without Thibs' tendencies might be able to work with a larger variety of roster possibilities.

The realities of getting good value for KAT after one season, and the difficulties of roster adjustment in the age of the second apron, including the necessity to rely on rookie scale players, introduces a serious risk in continuing with Thibs. Maybe if they had not made the Mikal and KAT deals, and had instead used all their picks to get another real center, things would be different. But that's not what happened and there's no going back.

So if a good KAT trade isn't there, what else can you do? Well, Mikal had a good statistical season, had some good playoff games and made some huge plays. Mikal, OG, and Hart are going to have value around the league commensurate with their salaries. None are supserstars, but I bet there's a trade to be made for one of them that gets you something you're missing, like Mitch insurance at the 5, or another initiator/distributor type of player, or a 3 point gunner. And in that case I would NOT extend Mikal - I think that means you can't trade him for a year, and that limits your options. Yes, you could lose him for nothing, and his 25m off the books won't get you under the cap, but it will get you significantly under the second apron which gives you a lot of options. I just keep thinking if you replace Mikal with Deuce the Knicks are a better team. Not because Deuce is better but because he's a better fit. So why do you want to commit to the wrong fit?

Meanwhile, I'd lean into KAT at the 4. He's had moments of good perimeter defense, and hopefully another coach can find a way to weaponize and prioritize his 3 point shooting.

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Peter Peretzman's avatar

I would be a little careful about the Goodwill report. I would trust it more coming from a Knick beat writer or one of the big national writers. I don’t know who is tight enough with him unless he covered Thibs in Chicago. In any event a grain of salt on that one.

Trading for a 37 year old Durant who is always hurt, has one year left on his contract and will surely want an extension is an absolute non starter for me. Also they have Brunson, KAT and OG signed for longer than a small window and add Bridges if they extend him which I expect them to do. So not really a tiny window.

This is a good roster that Thibs never maximized in 100 games. Trading wide open threes for tough twos, grinding the offense to a halt with no adjustments, and poor game management. A vastly overrated coach who raises the floor because he is super structured but is out of his depth at their current level.

I trust them to hire the right coach and would absolutely run it back with more game time for their draft picks. To me Thibs had to go and I am optimistic about what comes next.

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KW's avatar

Great guest piece . Stories about Dolan being involved are silly at this point IMO . Of course he spearheaded this ! He is agreeing to pay 30 million dollars to have Thibs not coach the team and would hope he would be involved. I get all the past Dolan hate stuff but i am willing to let this process play out this time .

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Ken's avatar

Great content. If no Giannis (i assume it would be Kat plus OG or Bridges and that Portis would be coming along with Giannis and I would do that trade but don’t know that the Bucks would) my next favorite trade partner is Detroit for Kat. They could use a scorer so they did not have to win all their games 91-89. In theory you could get four players back for Kat. One of Beef Stew or Duren, Tobias Harris and some of their youth like Ivey, Holland or Thompson. It would help depth and defense but it would be a real question whether that depth made up for the loss of offense.

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Chris bacon's avatar

Assuming they keep the core 4 of JB KAT OG & Kal, what archetype of player do you think best fits as the 5th starter and what names do you got?

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AG's avatar

Loved the article and I’m enjoying everyone’s comments. One of the big questions for me is if the FO sees the problems that KAT creates too much to overcome or a new coach can help. If they moved on from Thibs for his shortcomings, I’d hope they’d do the same with KAT if they feel the same way.

If they move from him, I do wonder what team(s) would be interested beyond including him in a KD/Giannis trade.

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Andrew Horne's avatar

Thank you for the article John Schmeelk.

In addition to the offensive problems with Hart, an under appreciated part of the defensive problems with Indiana specifically are that Hart couldn't really match up with a power forward like Siakam. Hart is a competitor and does well rebounding. But, physically, Siakam shot over him. Hart also was never tasked with point of attack defense either for whatever reason. Basically, the starting lineup didn't function with him because of the lack of shooting. He is also 30 now and relies on hustle. In thinking about the salary, it's very reasonable for a starter if you think of him as a starter but not necessarily reasonable if he's a bench player.

Similar point with Mitch's salary. Bargain for a starter. But, as a backup center, Hukporti while raw is giving you a lot of what Mitch does for a fraction of the cost.

It kind of depends on what the new philosophy is. If we are wanting a better offense, if you can trade Mitch and Hart for a three point shooter who is a PF sized player and a three point shooter who is point of attack defender, I think it would be a better fit for the roster.

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Peterobin Sunshine-fuhry's avatar

After what I saw in these playoffs, I'm extending Mitch. Let's say he plays next season and doesn't have another major injury. I think a lot of teams will be wanting to give him some bigger money than we'd be willing to pay. Maybe then we lose him. The guy is a difference maker that needs to be accounted for.

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Andrew Horne's avatar

He was fantastic in the playoffs for sure. To me, just a question of what the philosophy is. If we keep KAT, is Mitch a starter? If he doesn't start, then we have $65 million committed to the Center position ($53 for KAT / $12 for Mitch).

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Peterobin Sunshine-fuhry's avatar

You can call KAT a center if you like, but none of his 53M salary is committed to rim protection, because he doesn't provide any.

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Phil's avatar

Great post. Regarding the exit interviews, I would think it's fairly certain that Bridges is the one who said he couldn't play for Thibs. Regarding salaries, isn't it amazing /insane that 20 million for Hart and 13 million for Robinson are considered cheap:) Crazy world. You had talked about 3 of the rookies being developed. What about Kevin McCuller? I thought he was supposed to have promise as a sort of younger Hart. It's too bad that Walt Perrin really may have nothing to do for the next 3 or 4 years as he is a talented exec. Finally, if at all possible, I think they have to get rid of Towns and develop Hukporti. I liked what I saw of him. and while Durant is older, i think that would be the way to go if some team (maybe not Phoenix, can take him in a 2 or 3 way deal.

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Peterobin Sunshine-fuhry's avatar

I know this is a less sexy idea, but I don't think it was Mikal that said he wouldn't play for Thibs. I think it was Precious or Cam Payne. Or maybe Hukporti.

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Phil's avatar

I don't think any of those guys would have any influence on Thibs being fired.

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Josh's avatar

My understanding is that Huk fell in the draft because teams were scared of his knee issues. If we’re going with Huk and Mitch expected to play most of the 5 minutes we will need yet another centre not named KAT to play when they’re injured

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NB3131's avatar

Great article and insight.

‘ What would I do? I would make every decision understanding I am trying to build a championship winning team, and not simply make it about acquiring the most talent.’ - too bad Leon didn’t think this way, because if he did we wouldn’t be discussing KAT at all.

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Jonathan H's avatar

The Dolan angle sent my heart to the floor

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Drew's avatar

As for a possible Durant trade it should be noted that Booker and Towns were teammates at Kentucky. Between the hiring of the new coach and the roster questions Leon is in the VERY deep end. To mix sports metaphors he is at bat with the bases loaded and a 3-2 count needing to knock in some runs. Leon, please don't whiff.

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Peterobin Sunshine-fuhry's avatar

I think Phoenix is in kind of a fantasy world when it comes to what they could get for Durant at this point. I don't know if they'd get a better offer than KAT. Unless their looking for picks and expiring contracts.

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