I enjoyed this article, premature as it might be. But there is one dynamic trade possibility that you don't consider here, and it might be the most viable one of all. Perhaps it is unrealistic, but who knows? Despite Randle's excellent season, I still have huge doubts about his reliability, his defense, and his play down the stretch of games. I really, really hope I'm wrong about him. I do want him to succeed. But his explosive personality requires enabling, patience, and a double standard. Everyone in the league knows this. So does Thibs. So do the other Knicks. Jeff Van Gundy obviously said as much in the recent NYP article and as a good friend of mine said there is little daylight between what JVG says and Thibs is thinking. As long as he is a Knick, Randle will be the elephant in the room. The team must ask whether his sensitive (to be kind) personality, his negative behavior when things don't go his way, is worth his unique skills and talent. They also must ask whether his enormous ego could handle being third or fourth fiddle and whether he plays well enough with others if there are more so-called stars on the team. His immaturity is astounding at this stage of his career. We've all been wrong about him so many times now but his mercurial personality worries any observant Knicks fan. Once again his "assets" are at a peak. Isn't he really the Knicks best trade option? And we must ask about the extent to which his play diminishes RJ and Obi, and finally we should ask, does Randle really make other players better? Sometimes he does, but often he doesn't. Do we really want a team that relies on him as much as it does? These questions must be asked, as redundant as they might seem.
Mar 27, 2023·edited Mar 27, 2023Liked by Jonathan Macri
The Windhorst comments last week left me thinking similar thoughts - should RJ or Randle be the big player we move in these potential trades? Randle is hard to build around and find a complimentary star to play with. I don’t love the idea of a Towns trade, but there might be a world where a Towns trade built around Randle made team building sense. I like Randle, and maybe it’s foolish to bet against him at this point, but it’s hard to see his trade value ever being higher. If he makes all nba a second time in three years though... would be hard to see it unless it’s a guy the level of Towns or higher.
I would still rather trade RJ for Anunoby, personally. But there’s a case to be made trading Randle is the wise course. Maybe, per Windy, we do both. But yeah, hard to see another year of the RJ/Randle pairing making sense.
Appreciate these sentiments guys. Depending on how the rest of this season goes, it’s something I may explore, but I’m always a believer in “follow actions, not words” and the front office’s actions have been that they will stick by Randle through thick & thin, whereas they already tried to move RJ. Now, you could argue there’s a deal out there too good to pass up for Randle. If so, I agree they’d look at it. I just don’t happen to believe that trade exists. And the reason is simple: all the concerns you guys have (can this guy be a ball dominant option on a contender? Can he be a 3rd wheel?) are likely ones shared around the league.
My gut is that RJ would go out in that deal. Creates a great lob connection with Gobert, you continue to build your defense around size, and you eliminate the spacing concerns with Gobert / Randle. Plus, NY wouldn’t give nearly as much extra stuff on top of Randle. And in NY, on offense at least KAT is the perfect partner for Julius. Defensively...yeesh
I would stay away from KAT. He is another phony superstar and since he’s been in the NBA, he never seems to be on good teams. Plus, I like when the Knicks develop a tough-minded, defensive approach and KAT really is a very poor defender.
Yeah, I would have even more concerns if the idea were to pair KAT and Randle, that seems like a very bad idea. For that reason, I wouldn't do RJ in that trade. I'd only consider it for Randle.
The one hope/caveat to this take I’d toss out here is that the Knicks may have been protecting their investment by backing Randle and not looking to trade him as opposed to showing their loyalty to him and vision for the future. If they traded him last summer, I think “ham sandwich” was the value we’d assumed he’d return. If they traded him in-season, his value would have improved, but teams would still have massive amounts of skepticism. Now, his value is higher than his contract, and while everyone is still skeptical, the concern is that he’ll limit ceilings instead of drop the damn floor out entirely. I could easily see a team stuck in the mid-high lottery/play-in territory seeing him as a real benefit at a controlled, affordable cost, and giving up enough to move us forward (e.g., my favorite, a sign/trade for Grant w Portland).
My only counter to that is that the Wolves may legitimately view Randle as a better fit than Towns. He’s more able to cover the perimeter, he plays with a rim protecting big now in one of the best offenses in the league. And the Wolves already traded four firsts for an aging Gobert, so there’s some desperation there. And obviously the Rose connection is there with Towns. I would be highly skeptical of such a move, but I could see it happening.
Not crazy about Towns game (no motor IQ) as basketball pundits & minds have echoed. Imagine Towns wilting like Randle under pressure during the playoffs, Randle 2.0. No thanks. That Wolves team would be fun though and explosive. Conoley, Edwards, McDaniels, Randle & Gobert- whom I think the Wolves made a mistake acquiring in this era of basketball at that contract and declining skill.
Completely agree with you, re: Towns. But I just suspect Leon Rose will be interested in him. And as you said, I could see the Wolves talking themselves into a team built around Ant / Randle / Gobert. Just feels potentially plausible. I would not like getting Towns, though I'd probably talk myself into being excited before the season started and I was crushingly disappointed.
I don't mind trading him, but if the Knicks have issues with him, then so will every other team in league and that would diminish his value. I do think he has value. Overall he's been great, but no one wants to pay top dollar and other teams will point out all of those negatives you stated (even if they do want him). Teams over value their assets while the teams trading for them try to diminish them.
I would love to see us take care of business against the Rockets & Heat in MSG and head out to Cleveland with a hop in our step at 44-33 for a 1st Round playoff preview Friday night.
We need to shift our focus to “D” after the disastrous showings last week giving up 140 points on 61% shooting to the TWolves in MSG and 127 points on 57% shooting to the Heat in Miami. Our defense needs to improve, especially with late game “stops” or it is going to be a very short and disappointing post season (even if Randle and Brunson are scoring 40+ a night).
This is a perfect time to right the ship and get ready for multiple rounds of NBA playoff action which will be great for the development of our rotation players.
Obviously, all of this is speculative but I keep hearing the idea floated that if Philly flops in the playoffs Joel Embid might want out. Would Philadelphia though really view the Knicks as a viable trade partner for Embid? Seems to me that they’d want him as far away as possible if they’re forced to trade him. Wstching Embid playing for a conference rival (of sorts), in a venue less than 100 miles away, in the largest media market in the country, wouldn’t sound too appealing to me if I’m the 76ers. And while we have a quality collection of young players and draft assets, we don’t have the one young stud who Philly would think automatically makes it worthwhile to have to deal with him in NY over the next 5-7 years (imo). But perhaps I’m missing something here (wouldn’t be the first time-lol).
Must win game tonight! Knickerbockers have to stop losing at home to sub .500 teams in order to be taken seriously-if they lose tonight they’re headed for the play in.
Fair question. I’d guess it would be a factor but nowhere close to the primary factor. Ultimately the Sixers need to get the best package, but also Joel’s desire to go to the next destination may impact the packages that could be available. If he wants to come to the Knicks, that could factor significantly.
I know the Knicks are not Golden State but if second tier stars are only available, I rather continue to compete with our current roster which should continue to improve. I'd trade Randle before Grimes or Quickley. I like Barrett, but my guess he is the guy you trade...but not for DeRozan, maybe OG. I'd go after Jimmy Butler if Miami was rebuilding. My dream would be Mikail Bridges!
So, sorry for the sour note, but count me out on the star search. Most teams need stars to get their fans into their arenas, boost their broadcast value, and generate public attention. Those are not Knick concerns.The League favors a star driven narrative (with the referees making calls accordingly) because the media and the vast audience of casual fans are comfortable with it. And I am aware that in close games that is an issue. But, still, I would prefer the Knicks to be like a highly skilled rowing team. Everyone pulling together. You know the saying: There's no I in team. But, you all and the Knick Front Office, probably, too... keep chasing and wishing on stars.
Fantastic newsletter Jon and it couldn't of came at a better time. If someone is still looking for a reason to get off the ledge despite a nice weekend. This newsletter is the ticket right here. I will enjoy the rest of their season to the fullest. I do have a feeling that after last summer where you guys had an emergency livestreams on hold throughout. I think we'll finally see a positive one or two or maybe even three or four with IQ and Hart possible extensions in mind.
I cant wait but at the same time rationally speaking I can. They've been playing too well to worry about too far outside the present. At the same time, it's a very nice thought to have stored far in the back of my head in the meantime. Great stuff Jon as always. LGK tonight and take care of bidness lol.
I don’t think any team with Randle on it could ever be a serious contender. He believes he is better than he is and that leads to many turnovers at the end of shot clocks, half’s and games. When you add the fact that he is highly combustible (and over the two past years, he has lashed out at fans, his teammates and refs) just adds to the fact that most teams will not view him as a particularly attractive trade candidate. It also leads to the problem of what to do with him.
RJ’s numbers (both advanced metrics and old time stats) are clear to any team paying attention that he is not a very good player. Plus he is another guy who thinks he is better than he is. Thus, his trade value is probably fairly low. He is young, which helps, he’s a good guy, which helps, and as you note Jonathan, his contract is not terrible. So maybe his value is targeted around a first round pick with 1-10 protection. One potential advantage is he is a legend in Canada and thus Toronto will definitely be interested--maybe in an OG trade?
Thank goodness, we have Jalen Brunson, who can be an anchor star for the Knicks.
So to me, the big question is, can the Knicks trade Randle and RJ and build around Brunson, OG, Quickley, Hart, Robinson and Grimes? While that is not yet a championship contender, it is closer than they are today. And in trading two those players, perhaps the Knicks add positive assets and can retain most of their their first round picks and use the picks and expiring contracts to acquire a star level player
a la the Donovan/Cavs trade? (Side note: I still cannot believe the Knicks did not get a Donovan Mitchell trade to work.)
So Brunson, OG, Quick, Hart, Robinson, Grimes + superstar, now we are talking about a team that can seriously contend.
Oh..one last comment. I don’t think who Thibs plays in crunch time is any tip of the cards as to who the FO values most. Thibs is gonna Thibs and I don’t think he’s going to let anyone tell him who to play when the game is on the line. He’s earned that right.
Crunch time yes. But right now, for instance, RJ is getting his 30 minutes a night most nights. If he's having one of his off games early, might we see a drastic reduction?
Absolutely. My point is when the playoffs start, Thibs will do whatever HE thinks the game dictates (i.e. pull RJ off he looks awful). We may not agree. The FO may not agree. He does not give two shits.
Oof this newsletter makes my head hurt. As you noted, I don’t see that undeniable super-star that is going to say “Trade me to the Knicks. That is where I want to be.” Brunson & Hart were complete aberrations. Maybe all this mental gymnastics makes it even more painful that we didn’t overpay for Spida because he may be the only one that meets the two critical criteria of 1) a real superstar in his prime and 2) a guy that would love to come to NY. Playing for Thibs and alongside Randle is not many NBA mega-millionaires definition of their best life. If it’s me I may consider overpaying in trade value for an aging Jimmy Butler just because it would be fun to watch for 2ish years before his body crumbles and swing a RJ centered trade with Toronto for OG type deal as a complement. See where that takes us and blow it up and continue to draft well if it fails.
I hope I am. I think most superstars just want to play with their friends and deal with as little BS as possible on their way to the club. This is not congruent with an introduction to Thibs + Randle for very different reasons. Gimme Butler for 2 years and I may not care what havoc it reeks on any kind of plan that may or may not be in Leon’s head.
Assuming we make the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years, our perspective needs to change from what works in the regular season to what works in the playoffs. You are starting from the premise that we can't afford 4 players for 2 spots because Thibs wants to play a double big lineup at all times. That's just not how playoff basketball works.
Presumably, in the off-season, the front office will evaluate what we need to do to advance further in the playoffs. Depending on how things play out, a coaching change to someone who will emphasize playoff style basketball during the regular season may be more important than "star trade."
Brunson and Randle have been the best players this year. IQ, Grimes, and RJ have all had individual great games and are our next 3 best players IMO. I love the energy Hart has brought to the team but Thibs has been playing him too much at the expense of Grimes. I like Mitch and Hartenstein but, combined, they are averaging 12 ppg and we don't have a dominant defense. For sure they help with offensive rebounding and there have been some great defensive stands. But, they also clog the paint.
We saw Brunson outplay Donovan Mitchell last year in the playoffs in a small ball lineup. He can be unstoppable. Brunson has really grown this year. But, does it feel like Thibs is optimizing Brunson? Does he have another level offensively? If we play the Cavs, and Brunson struggles going up against twin towers of Allen / Mobley, can Thibs adapt to go 5 out? The Reggie Bullock / Theo Pinion comments about Thibs not holding Julius accountable on defense were concerning. We heard that Johnny Bryant was the one who visited Julius in Dallas over the summer. Against the Magic, when Julius melted down it was Johnny Bryant who went out on the court to try to help calm him down. If Julius is staying, don't we want a coach who will try to hold him accountable.
I love Hart's energy and he has been fantastic for us. But, he's just stopped shooting other than in transition. At the end of the day, he's a career 10 ppg scorer and he's now averaging 11 ppg for us on unusually high 3pt shooting accuracy which will probably revert to the mean. I want Hart back. But, I don't want to risk losing IQ or Grimes to pay an energy / glue guy $15-$17 million to come off the bench just because "he's a Thib's guy."
Masai Ujiri replaced Dwayne Casey with Nick Nurse after he won coach of the year because Casey couldn't win in the playoffs. If it turns out Thibs can't figure out playoff basketball is different, we may want to move forward with Johnny Bryant or another modern coach rather than try to pursue "star" trades to optimize Thib's pre-Warrior's era system.
Having said all that, I was a Thibs skeptic before the start of the year. He deserves credit for getting us this far. I really hope he continues to prove me wrong in the playoffs. I will be very happy to be wrong.
I think you criticism of Thibs is more a personnel issue. Randle can't protect the rim and they don't have a Draymond / Giannis pivot at the 5, nor do they have a bevy of wing defenders like the Clippers do (or did, at least) to survive without a true flex 4/5. Teams that don't protect the paint lose in the playoffs. This is not Thibs being an ld fuddy duddy; it's hoops 101. As for Hart, he's a sub on a great team but still a guy who could play 25 minutes a night for any team in the league. The hesitation hurts you in spots but that's a far cry from pigeonholing him as a Thibs guy. Thibs guys try hard all the time and make winning plays; i.e., Thibs guys are [insert name of literally any other head coach] guys as well. In general, the notion that Thibs isn't modern is probably my least favorite cop out / lazy analysis that has almost zero basis in fact. What makes a coach modern? And what isn't Thibodeau doing that prevents him from joining this elusive category? Pretty sure its fairy modern to take a team that can't shoot and turn them into a top 5 offense by leaning into literally every other possible advantage (low TO, high FT, high OREB). These are also the things that historically have translated into the playoffs. What doesn't translate? Fancy offenses from "modern" head coaches that don't look nearly as good because opponents have weeks to game-plan for one opponent. If you have a guy like Steph? All is well. If not? Better say your prayers.
Sorry to unload here, but this stuff gets under my skin like nothing else. Sounds great, makes you feel like there's this easy answer out there ("change the coach; all will be solved!"), positively evaporates under scrutiny. It's unfathomable to me that anyone could think that a 2-time COTY winner doesn't understand that playoff basketball is different. Has Thibs optimized Brunson? He's the 2nd betting favorite for Most Improved. Holding Julius accountable? Ahhh, yes...let's bench the soon to be 2-time All-NBA guy. Steve Kerr, Mr. Modern Coach himself, completely lost control of the Draymond situation starting in training camp. He just got his 16th tech and continues to fumble away games. But Kerr has a sterling rep and Thibs is everyone's favorite punching bag. Again, so many talking points that give fans the warm fuzzy blanket of "it's not the players, its the coach" when in reality he covers up far more issues than most people realize. Is he perfect? Of course not, no coach is. But the constant looking for excuses to peg him as the "real" issue here are the epitome of poor fandom, in the very humble opinion of this fan, at least.
It may be a personnel issue. But, it's also coaching decisions. Even though we held Grimes out of the Donovan Mitchell trade, Thibs started this season infuriating the fan base by proclaiming Fournier had the edge over Grimes. Before he benched Fournier, Rose and Cam and went to a 9 man rotation playing Julius, Brunson and the kids, the team was performing poorly to the point that you wrote it felt like Thibs was on the verge of getting fired. To his credit, Thibs changed the rotation and has turned around the season. But, clearly he wasn't optimizing the roster at the beginning of the season.
Saint Zach Lowe wrote this week that "Sigh. I'm still a believer in Toppin ... Tom Thibodeau won't use Toppin at center, or pair Toppin and Randle in smaller lineups, and it's pretty much impossible at this point to nit-pick that decision. The Knicks are winning, and their three-headed center brigade -- Mitchell Robinson (getting in that cardio!), Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims -- has executed Thibodeau's scheme."
Because we have been winning, I agree with Zach that it's not fair to nitpick Thibs at this point and I agree with you that I don't think Julius can protect the paint as well as Mitch or Hartenstein. But, I think it's also fair to recognize that in recent history you need to have the ability to play small to advance in the playoffs. Obi had a fantastic finish last year and didn't really get a shot at a bigger role this year because of how Thibs wants to play, how well Julius has played and partly due to injury. Before the last two games, Grimes had been languishing on the bench because of how Thibs preferred to play Hart and didn't want to go small. These are choices Thibs has made. But, when you note that Obi averaged over 20 down the stretch last year and Grimes has games like he had the last two, I think it's possible we could have successfully experimented more with small ball this season.
Finally, I was just commenting about the newsletter addressing the possibility of making a trade for two "stars" this summer which would presumably be something we would want to pursue in the event of a playoff disappointment. It is my great hope that we advance to round 2 and we can continue to build with this fun team and don't need to consider any "star trades" or coaching changes. If however, operative word if, round 1 is anything other than a victory or game 6/7 loss after a very competitive series, I think all options should be on the table and that should include evaluating both the players and the coach.
2 things...no one loves Grimes more than Thibs. He proclaimed Fournier the starter because the other option would have been to say Fournier is only the starter because Grimes was injured, which...umm...is not exactly something I'd advise. And you keep saying small ball, small ball, small ball...small ball only works if it makes sense at both ends. Either of Obi/Randle at center would be rough for this team. They lack size on perimeter defense. It's an issue, but we survive it because of the rim protection. You do NOT have to play small in the playoffs if your personnel doesn't lend itself to that.
My Brother...are you saying that it has been a mistake to play Hart over Grimes in crunchtime? And are you using that as an example of Thibs' poor decisions? Cmon brother! Grimes, as much as I love him, is still a young player and Hart was balling! Macri's point is that the Thibs narrative is waaaaaaay overboard and this is yet another example imo. And regarding Obi: never believe what your eyes see in April! I take his success at the end of last year with w 2 grains of salt!
THANK YOU AND WELL SAID! When I first moved to SO. Cal, every other sports radio call was Laker fans questioning Phil Friggin Jackson!!!! 🤣 Thibs is absolutely frustrating at times, but he is a very good seasoned coach that should get the benefit of the doubt! Note to all of us: he knows way more than we do! #thibshive
I enjoyed this article, premature as it might be. But there is one dynamic trade possibility that you don't consider here, and it might be the most viable one of all. Perhaps it is unrealistic, but who knows? Despite Randle's excellent season, I still have huge doubts about his reliability, his defense, and his play down the stretch of games. I really, really hope I'm wrong about him. I do want him to succeed. But his explosive personality requires enabling, patience, and a double standard. Everyone in the league knows this. So does Thibs. So do the other Knicks. Jeff Van Gundy obviously said as much in the recent NYP article and as a good friend of mine said there is little daylight between what JVG says and Thibs is thinking. As long as he is a Knick, Randle will be the elephant in the room. The team must ask whether his sensitive (to be kind) personality, his negative behavior when things don't go his way, is worth his unique skills and talent. They also must ask whether his enormous ego could handle being third or fourth fiddle and whether he plays well enough with others if there are more so-called stars on the team. His immaturity is astounding at this stage of his career. We've all been wrong about him so many times now but his mercurial personality worries any observant Knicks fan. Once again his "assets" are at a peak. Isn't he really the Knicks best trade option? And we must ask about the extent to which his play diminishes RJ and Obi, and finally we should ask, does Randle really make other players better? Sometimes he does, but often he doesn't. Do we really want a team that relies on him as much as it does? These questions must be asked, as redundant as they might seem.
The Windhorst comments last week left me thinking similar thoughts - should RJ or Randle be the big player we move in these potential trades? Randle is hard to build around and find a complimentary star to play with. I don’t love the idea of a Towns trade, but there might be a world where a Towns trade built around Randle made team building sense. I like Randle, and maybe it’s foolish to bet against him at this point, but it’s hard to see his trade value ever being higher. If he makes all nba a second time in three years though... would be hard to see it unless it’s a guy the level of Towns or higher.
I would still rather trade RJ for Anunoby, personally. But there’s a case to be made trading Randle is the wise course. Maybe, per Windy, we do both. But yeah, hard to see another year of the RJ/Randle pairing making sense.
Appreciate these sentiments guys. Depending on how the rest of this season goes, it’s something I may explore, but I’m always a believer in “follow actions, not words” and the front office’s actions have been that they will stick by Randle through thick & thin, whereas they already tried to move RJ. Now, you could argue there’s a deal out there too good to pass up for Randle. If so, I agree they’d look at it. I just don’t happen to believe that trade exists. And the reason is simple: all the concerns you guys have (can this guy be a ball dominant option on a contender? Can he be a 3rd wheel?) are likely ones shared around the league.
My gut is that RJ would go out in that deal. Creates a great lob connection with Gobert, you continue to build your defense around size, and you eliminate the spacing concerns with Gobert / Randle. Plus, NY wouldn’t give nearly as much extra stuff on top of Randle. And in NY, on offense at least KAT is the perfect partner for Julius. Defensively...yeesh
Let's hope Anthony Edwards asks for a trade! Then you trade the farm.
I would stay away from KAT. He is another phony superstar and since he’s been in the NBA, he never seems to be on good teams. Plus, I like when the Knicks develop a tough-minded, defensive approach and KAT really is a very poor defender.
Yeah, I would have even more concerns if the idea were to pair KAT and Randle, that seems like a very bad idea. For that reason, I wouldn't do RJ in that trade. I'd only consider it for Randle.
Yup. Not sure you can defend well enough with both of those guys on the court
The one hope/caveat to this take I’d toss out here is that the Knicks may have been protecting their investment by backing Randle and not looking to trade him as opposed to showing their loyalty to him and vision for the future. If they traded him last summer, I think “ham sandwich” was the value we’d assumed he’d return. If they traded him in-season, his value would have improved, but teams would still have massive amounts of skepticism. Now, his value is higher than his contract, and while everyone is still skeptical, the concern is that he’ll limit ceilings instead of drop the damn floor out entirely. I could easily see a team stuck in the mid-high lottery/play-in territory seeing him as a real benefit at a controlled, affordable cost, and giving up enough to move us forward (e.g., my favorite, a sign/trade for Grant w Portland).
You may be right, but they still won't trade him unless it is for a clear upgrade, which is sort of hard with a guy who is about to make All-NBA
If we value him at the apex of his achievements instead of the average we will most certainly have to hold on to him.
My only counter to that is that the Wolves may legitimately view Randle as a better fit than Towns. He’s more able to cover the perimeter, he plays with a rim protecting big now in one of the best offenses in the league. And the Wolves already traded four firsts for an aging Gobert, so there’s some desperation there. And obviously the Rose connection is there with Towns. I would be highly skeptical of such a move, but I could see it happening.
Not crazy about Towns game (no motor IQ) as basketball pundits & minds have echoed. Imagine Towns wilting like Randle under pressure during the playoffs, Randle 2.0. No thanks. That Wolves team would be fun though and explosive. Conoley, Edwards, McDaniels, Randle & Gobert- whom I think the Wolves made a mistake acquiring in this era of basketball at that contract and declining skill.
Completely agree with you, re: Towns. But I just suspect Leon Rose will be interested in him. And as you said, I could see the Wolves talking themselves into a team built around Ant / Randle / Gobert. Just feels potentially plausible. I would not like getting Towns, though I'd probably talk myself into being excited before the season started and I was crushingly disappointed.
I don't mind trading him, but if the Knicks have issues with him, then so will every other team in league and that would diminish his value. I do think he has value. Overall he's been great, but no one wants to pay top dollar and other teams will point out all of those negatives you stated (even if they do want him). Teams over value their assets while the teams trading for them try to diminish them.
Big week ahead for the Knicks!
I would love to see us take care of business against the Rockets & Heat in MSG and head out to Cleveland with a hop in our step at 44-33 for a 1st Round playoff preview Friday night.
We need to shift our focus to “D” after the disastrous showings last week giving up 140 points on 61% shooting to the TWolves in MSG and 127 points on 57% shooting to the Heat in Miami. Our defense needs to improve, especially with late game “stops” or it is going to be a very short and disappointing post season (even if Randle and Brunson are scoring 40+ a night).
This is a perfect time to right the ship and get ready for multiple rounds of NBA playoff action which will be great for the development of our rotation players.
Obviously, all of this is speculative but I keep hearing the idea floated that if Philly flops in the playoffs Joel Embid might want out. Would Philadelphia though really view the Knicks as a viable trade partner for Embid? Seems to me that they’d want him as far away as possible if they’re forced to trade him. Wstching Embid playing for a conference rival (of sorts), in a venue less than 100 miles away, in the largest media market in the country, wouldn’t sound too appealing to me if I’m the 76ers. And while we have a quality collection of young players and draft assets, we don’t have the one young stud who Philly would think automatically makes it worthwhile to have to deal with him in NY over the next 5-7 years (imo). But perhaps I’m missing something here (wouldn’t be the first time-lol).
Must win game tonight! Knickerbockers have to stop losing at home to sub .500 teams in order to be taken seriously-if they lose tonight they’re headed for the play in.
Fair question. I’d guess it would be a factor but nowhere close to the primary factor. Ultimately the Sixers need to get the best package, but also Joel’s desire to go to the next destination may impact the packages that could be available. If he wants to come to the Knicks, that could factor significantly.
I know the Knicks are not Golden State but if second tier stars are only available, I rather continue to compete with our current roster which should continue to improve. I'd trade Randle before Grimes or Quickley. I like Barrett, but my guess he is the guy you trade...but not for DeRozan, maybe OG. I'd go after Jimmy Butler if Miami was rebuilding. My dream would be Mikail Bridges!
Butler and Mikal are my pipe dreams as well!
So, sorry for the sour note, but count me out on the star search. Most teams need stars to get their fans into their arenas, boost their broadcast value, and generate public attention. Those are not Knick concerns.The League favors a star driven narrative (with the referees making calls accordingly) because the media and the vast audience of casual fans are comfortable with it. And I am aware that in close games that is an issue. But, still, I would prefer the Knicks to be like a highly skilled rowing team. Everyone pulling together. You know the saying: There's no I in team. But, you all and the Knick Front Office, probably, too... keep chasing and wishing on stars.
fair. I still think they need a talent upgrade of some kind.
Fantastic newsletter Jon and it couldn't of came at a better time. If someone is still looking for a reason to get off the ledge despite a nice weekend. This newsletter is the ticket right here. I will enjoy the rest of their season to the fullest. I do have a feeling that after last summer where you guys had an emergency livestreams on hold throughout. I think we'll finally see a positive one or two or maybe even three or four with IQ and Hart possible extensions in mind.
Thank you Dom! Definitely going to be a busy summer!!
I cant wait but at the same time rationally speaking I can. They've been playing too well to worry about too far outside the present. At the same time, it's a very nice thought to have stored far in the back of my head in the meantime. Great stuff Jon as always. LGK tonight and take care of bidness lol.
I love when the Knicks get mentioned on other podcasts... makes me feel like ppl are paying attention. Hoop Collective is on my weekly listen!
So focused on the next 2 games, yet I do have a question Sir Jon...
Do you think the front office has an approach or a plan in place for this off-season? Approach is probably the better word....
What can happen in the next 2 weeks and playoffs that can change that approach? Realistically happen!!! No #53 wins crap... lol
If I was a betting man, I’d wager that they already have their summer whiteboard set up and filled out.
I’m a big whiteboard guy... we have a few at home! Im sure you do as well
i do indeed!
I don’t think any team with Randle on it could ever be a serious contender. He believes he is better than he is and that leads to many turnovers at the end of shot clocks, half’s and games. When you add the fact that he is highly combustible (and over the two past years, he has lashed out at fans, his teammates and refs) just adds to the fact that most teams will not view him as a particularly attractive trade candidate. It also leads to the problem of what to do with him.
RJ’s numbers (both advanced metrics and old time stats) are clear to any team paying attention that he is not a very good player. Plus he is another guy who thinks he is better than he is. Thus, his trade value is probably fairly low. He is young, which helps, he’s a good guy, which helps, and as you note Jonathan, his contract is not terrible. So maybe his value is targeted around a first round pick with 1-10 protection. One potential advantage is he is a legend in Canada and thus Toronto will definitely be interested--maybe in an OG trade?
Thank goodness, we have Jalen Brunson, who can be an anchor star for the Knicks.
So to me, the big question is, can the Knicks trade Randle and RJ and build around Brunson, OG, Quickley, Hart, Robinson and Grimes? While that is not yet a championship contender, it is closer than they are today. And in trading two those players, perhaps the Knicks add positive assets and can retain most of their their first round picks and use the picks and expiring contracts to acquire a star level player
a la the Donovan/Cavs trade? (Side note: I still cannot believe the Knicks did not get a Donovan Mitchell trade to work.)
So Brunson, OG, Quick, Hart, Robinson, Grimes + superstar, now we are talking about a team that can seriously contend.
Oh..one last comment. I don’t think who Thibs plays in crunch time is any tip of the cards as to who the FO values most. Thibs is gonna Thibs and I don’t think he’s going to let anyone tell him who to play when the game is on the line. He’s earned that right.
Crunch time yes. But right now, for instance, RJ is getting his 30 minutes a night most nights. If he's having one of his off games early, might we see a drastic reduction?
Absolutely. My point is when the playoffs start, Thibs will do whatever HE thinks the game dictates (i.e. pull RJ off he looks awful). We may not agree. The FO may not agree. He does not give two shits.
I think that's fair
Oof this newsletter makes my head hurt. As you noted, I don’t see that undeniable super-star that is going to say “Trade me to the Knicks. That is where I want to be.” Brunson & Hart were complete aberrations. Maybe all this mental gymnastics makes it even more painful that we didn’t overpay for Spida because he may be the only one that meets the two critical criteria of 1) a real superstar in his prime and 2) a guy that would love to come to NY. Playing for Thibs and alongside Randle is not many NBA mega-millionaires definition of their best life. If it’s me I may consider overpaying in trade value for an aging Jimmy Butler just because it would be fun to watch for 2ish years before his body crumbles and swing a RJ centered trade with Toronto for OG type deal as a complement. See where that takes us and blow it up and continue to draft well if it fails.
I think you may be underestimating the allure of this Knicks situation to a star player. But who knows. Butler is a dream of mine.
I hope I am. I think most superstars just want to play with their friends and deal with as little BS as possible on their way to the club. This is not congruent with an introduction to Thibs + Randle for very different reasons. Gimme Butler for 2 years and I may not care what havoc it reeks on any kind of plan that may or may not be in Leon’s head.
I simply do not see Riles negotiating with the Knicks.
Unless he thinks he can pull off a heist. Sending a bunch of young guys or picks to him for a 34 year old may be tempting enough.
Assuming we make the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years, our perspective needs to change from what works in the regular season to what works in the playoffs. You are starting from the premise that we can't afford 4 players for 2 spots because Thibs wants to play a double big lineup at all times. That's just not how playoff basketball works.
Presumably, in the off-season, the front office will evaluate what we need to do to advance further in the playoffs. Depending on how things play out, a coaching change to someone who will emphasize playoff style basketball during the regular season may be more important than "star trade."
Brunson and Randle have been the best players this year. IQ, Grimes, and RJ have all had individual great games and are our next 3 best players IMO. I love the energy Hart has brought to the team but Thibs has been playing him too much at the expense of Grimes. I like Mitch and Hartenstein but, combined, they are averaging 12 ppg and we don't have a dominant defense. For sure they help with offensive rebounding and there have been some great defensive stands. But, they also clog the paint.
We saw Brunson outplay Donovan Mitchell last year in the playoffs in a small ball lineup. He can be unstoppable. Brunson has really grown this year. But, does it feel like Thibs is optimizing Brunson? Does he have another level offensively? If we play the Cavs, and Brunson struggles going up against twin towers of Allen / Mobley, can Thibs adapt to go 5 out? The Reggie Bullock / Theo Pinion comments about Thibs not holding Julius accountable on defense were concerning. We heard that Johnny Bryant was the one who visited Julius in Dallas over the summer. Against the Magic, when Julius melted down it was Johnny Bryant who went out on the court to try to help calm him down. If Julius is staying, don't we want a coach who will try to hold him accountable.
I love Hart's energy and he has been fantastic for us. But, he's just stopped shooting other than in transition. At the end of the day, he's a career 10 ppg scorer and he's now averaging 11 ppg for us on unusually high 3pt shooting accuracy which will probably revert to the mean. I want Hart back. But, I don't want to risk losing IQ or Grimes to pay an energy / glue guy $15-$17 million to come off the bench just because "he's a Thib's guy."
Masai Ujiri replaced Dwayne Casey with Nick Nurse after he won coach of the year because Casey couldn't win in the playoffs. If it turns out Thibs can't figure out playoff basketball is different, we may want to move forward with Johnny Bryant or another modern coach rather than try to pursue "star" trades to optimize Thib's pre-Warrior's era system.
Having said all that, I was a Thibs skeptic before the start of the year. He deserves credit for getting us this far. I really hope he continues to prove me wrong in the playoffs. I will be very happy to be wrong.
I think you criticism of Thibs is more a personnel issue. Randle can't protect the rim and they don't have a Draymond / Giannis pivot at the 5, nor do they have a bevy of wing defenders like the Clippers do (or did, at least) to survive without a true flex 4/5. Teams that don't protect the paint lose in the playoffs. This is not Thibs being an ld fuddy duddy; it's hoops 101. As for Hart, he's a sub on a great team but still a guy who could play 25 minutes a night for any team in the league. The hesitation hurts you in spots but that's a far cry from pigeonholing him as a Thibs guy. Thibs guys try hard all the time and make winning plays; i.e., Thibs guys are [insert name of literally any other head coach] guys as well. In general, the notion that Thibs isn't modern is probably my least favorite cop out / lazy analysis that has almost zero basis in fact. What makes a coach modern? And what isn't Thibodeau doing that prevents him from joining this elusive category? Pretty sure its fairy modern to take a team that can't shoot and turn them into a top 5 offense by leaning into literally every other possible advantage (low TO, high FT, high OREB). These are also the things that historically have translated into the playoffs. What doesn't translate? Fancy offenses from "modern" head coaches that don't look nearly as good because opponents have weeks to game-plan for one opponent. If you have a guy like Steph? All is well. If not? Better say your prayers.
Sorry to unload here, but this stuff gets under my skin like nothing else. Sounds great, makes you feel like there's this easy answer out there ("change the coach; all will be solved!"), positively evaporates under scrutiny. It's unfathomable to me that anyone could think that a 2-time COTY winner doesn't understand that playoff basketball is different. Has Thibs optimized Brunson? He's the 2nd betting favorite for Most Improved. Holding Julius accountable? Ahhh, yes...let's bench the soon to be 2-time All-NBA guy. Steve Kerr, Mr. Modern Coach himself, completely lost control of the Draymond situation starting in training camp. He just got his 16th tech and continues to fumble away games. But Kerr has a sterling rep and Thibs is everyone's favorite punching bag. Again, so many talking points that give fans the warm fuzzy blanket of "it's not the players, its the coach" when in reality he covers up far more issues than most people realize. Is he perfect? Of course not, no coach is. But the constant looking for excuses to peg him as the "real" issue here are the epitome of poor fandom, in the very humble opinion of this fan, at least.
No worries. I enjoy the unloading.
It may be a personnel issue. But, it's also coaching decisions. Even though we held Grimes out of the Donovan Mitchell trade, Thibs started this season infuriating the fan base by proclaiming Fournier had the edge over Grimes. Before he benched Fournier, Rose and Cam and went to a 9 man rotation playing Julius, Brunson and the kids, the team was performing poorly to the point that you wrote it felt like Thibs was on the verge of getting fired. To his credit, Thibs changed the rotation and has turned around the season. But, clearly he wasn't optimizing the roster at the beginning of the season.
Saint Zach Lowe wrote this week that "Sigh. I'm still a believer in Toppin ... Tom Thibodeau won't use Toppin at center, or pair Toppin and Randle in smaller lineups, and it's pretty much impossible at this point to nit-pick that decision. The Knicks are winning, and their three-headed center brigade -- Mitchell Robinson (getting in that cardio!), Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims -- has executed Thibodeau's scheme."
Because we have been winning, I agree with Zach that it's not fair to nitpick Thibs at this point and I agree with you that I don't think Julius can protect the paint as well as Mitch or Hartenstein. But, I think it's also fair to recognize that in recent history you need to have the ability to play small to advance in the playoffs. Obi had a fantastic finish last year and didn't really get a shot at a bigger role this year because of how Thibs wants to play, how well Julius has played and partly due to injury. Before the last two games, Grimes had been languishing on the bench because of how Thibs preferred to play Hart and didn't want to go small. These are choices Thibs has made. But, when you note that Obi averaged over 20 down the stretch last year and Grimes has games like he had the last two, I think it's possible we could have successfully experimented more with small ball this season.
Finally, I was just commenting about the newsletter addressing the possibility of making a trade for two "stars" this summer which would presumably be something we would want to pursue in the event of a playoff disappointment. It is my great hope that we advance to round 2 and we can continue to build with this fun team and don't need to consider any "star trades" or coaching changes. If however, operative word if, round 1 is anything other than a victory or game 6/7 loss after a very competitive series, I think all options should be on the table and that should include evaluating both the players and the coach.
2 things...no one loves Grimes more than Thibs. He proclaimed Fournier the starter because the other option would have been to say Fournier is only the starter because Grimes was injured, which...umm...is not exactly something I'd advise. And you keep saying small ball, small ball, small ball...small ball only works if it makes sense at both ends. Either of Obi/Randle at center would be rough for this team. They lack size on perimeter defense. It's an issue, but we survive it because of the rim protection. You do NOT have to play small in the playoffs if your personnel doesn't lend itself to that.
Well, you write a column called stirring the pot ... you succeeded I guess.
Anyway, good W tonight.
Love the newsletter and the podcast. Keep it up.
Thank you! Agreed. Necessary win in this fashion
My Brother...are you saying that it has been a mistake to play Hart over Grimes in crunchtime? And are you using that as an example of Thibs' poor decisions? Cmon brother! Grimes, as much as I love him, is still a young player and Hart was balling! Macri's point is that the Thibs narrative is waaaaaaay overboard and this is yet another example imo. And regarding Obi: never believe what your eyes see in April! I take his success at the end of last year with w 2 grains of salt!
If he starts shooting again, it's fine to play Hart though.
Hart won't shoot the ball. Watch.
THANK YOU AND WELL SAID! When I first moved to SO. Cal, every other sports radio call was Laker fans questioning Phil Friggin Jackson!!!! 🤣 Thibs is absolutely frustrating at times, but he is a very good seasoned coach that should get the benefit of the doubt! Note to all of us: he knows way more than we do! #thibshive
LOL on the Phil Jackson reference in the Knicks Film School Newsletter.