Team USA vs NBA

How would the Americans fare if they were plopped into the National Basketball Association?

Good morning, and happy Monday! As we near the end of August, this week’s focus will be on what’s going on with the various international Knicks, starting with a fun “Ask Macri” today.

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Team USA won their final tuneup before World Cup play officially begins later this week, but it wasn’t without drama. Down by double digits for much of the game, it took an 18-0 fourth quarter run to rally and ultimately seal the deal. The star of the show was Anthony Edwards, who finished with 34 points on 20 shots and had several big moments throughout the game.

As for Jalen Brunson, it was his most subdued outing of the prelims. He played 15 minutes and scored eight points with three assists as Steve Kerr went without a point guard for the key fourth quarter run before Tyrese Haliburton (18 points; 17 in the second half) came on for the closing moments. Josh Hart went scoreless in 10 minutes but chipped in three boards and an assist.

Team USA opens the World Cup on Saturday against New Zealand.

Final Schedule Thoughts…

Reader (and author) Mitchell Thomashow had an astute comment in response to Friday’s schedule deep dive and my fretting over the early degree of difficulty in New York’s slate:

With all the talk about how the minutes will be allocated, the schedule is a reminder of how grueling the season is. Between rest, injury, and match-ups, there will be plenty of time for everyone. The Knicks backcourt and wing depth will serve them very well.

What a great point. If there’s any team in the league that can withstand a game or two without one of their normal rotation pieces, it’s New York. Not only can they easily survive (and maybe even thrive) with an eight-man rotation, but they have Deuce McBride waiting in the garage, ready to be unleashed. At the center spot, we’ve already seen Jericho Sims positively impact game at the NBA level, so the Knicks should be able to withstand an injury to the center position as well.

Good thinking, Mitchell.

Team USA vs the NBA

Today’s question came from Mark Fischl last week (and notably, before yesterday’s Anthony Edwards explosion). With the FIBA World Cup slated to start later this week, Mark asks:

After reading your review of the US team going to Worlds, with Jalen Brunson being the best player, it got me thinking.  You are always saying that you need a true superstar to win an NBA title.  One of the top ten guys in the league.  A legit MVP candidate.  So my question is, if this current version of the US team played the entire season together, how would they do? Pretender?  Contender?  Favorite?

My goodness, is this right up my alley.

Couple things…

First of all, while I have thrown bouquet after bouquet at Jalen Brunson since his arrival in New York last summer, and most recently for his performance in Team USA’s warm up games, I never meant to imply that he was the best player on the roster. That designation goes to Anthony Edwards.

I haven’t written about Edwards much in this space, saving most of gushing for the podcast, but suffice to say, I’m a fan. Windy and the Hoop Collective guys were having a discussion recently about the next American-born player who could win MVP. I think a half dozen or so guys have an argument, but Edwards would get my vote.

(Scout’s honor: those opening paragraphs, and everything else you’re about to read, were written before Edwards went off for 34 against Germany yesterday. Watching that game and knowing I had this newsletter dropping today was one of those bittersweet moments where I wished I’d released a particular piece a few days earlier. Oh well.)

Of all the wings in the league right now, he’s the only one without an apparent weakness. He’s young. He doesn’t get injured. He can shoot the lights out of the ball, and he’s getting better by the day. He shot 32.9 percent from downtown as a rookie, then 35.7 percent, and then 36.9 percent last season, but he did so while taking the fifth most pull-up threes in the NBA, and the most of any wing. He hit 33.8 percent on those pull-ups - better than Trae, nearly as good as Luka, and far better than Tatum.

Speaking of Tatum, part of Boston’s catch 22 is that if they put the ball in the hands of their best player (Tatum), they’re giving it to someone who isn’t quite a good enough passer to consistently keep the offense humming, which is why the Celtics have had so many issues with offensive stagnation the last few years. Minnesota isn’t going to have that problem. Whereas Tatum may have topped out as a passer (4.3, 4.4 and 4.6 assists per game over the last three seasons), Edwards seems to have another jump or two in him, going from 2.9 to 3.8 to 4.4 dimes in his three years.

And then defensively, he’s big enough to body anyone, but at 6'4" and athletic as all hell, he’s capable of shutting down the point of attack as well as anyone. If he isn’t a top 10 guy right now (and he might be), he’ll get there very soon.

But even I, an unabashed Ant optimist, am skeptical about whether he’s ready to be the “best” player on a title team. He’s 22 years old and entering his fourth season. The last time someone this green was the undisputed lead dog on an NBA champion was more then four decades ago, when Larry Bird led the Celtics to the promised land in 1981. That was his second season, but he was also already 24 years old.

The big difference here is that Edwards doesn’t need to play the Bird role on Team USA because his supporting cast is so outstanding. For that reason, it’s fair to bring up the slew of younger players who were perhaps nominally the “best” player (or second best player by a slim margin) on title teams but who didn’t need to do all the heavy lifting. That list includes Kawhi Leonard in 2014, Dwyane Wade in 2006, Kobe Bryant in 2001-02 and Magic Johnson in 1980 and 1982.

Of all those comps, 2014 Kawhi is probably most fitting in terms of the role Edwards could/should play if Team USA were dropped into the middle of the NBA. But those Spurs had a decade and a half of muscle memory to rely upon, not to mention three future Hall-of-Famers. Team USA first stepped on a court together less than a month ago.

This brings us to Edwards’ supporting cast.

I don’t need to sign Brunson’s praises…but I will anyway. I keep trying to think of comps for him on great NBA teams - players that weren’t the “best” guy but who could be the best guy for enough of the most meaningful stretches of games to make the difference, and who were the undisputed leader and cultural bedrock of their team. Chris Paul on the 2021 Suns comes to mind, and they nearly won it all. Another Kawhi team, the 2019 Raptors, did get the chip, with Kyle Lowry playing second fiddle. Tony Parker won the 2007 Finals MVP over teammate Tim Duncan. And then of course there’s my favorite comp in terms of role/pecking order even though he and Brunson are very different sorts of players: Chauncey Billups, who didn’t make his first of five All-Star teams until nearly two years following his Pistons title.

I think if you paired Brunson and Edwards on an NBA roster, those two guys could be good enough together to lead a team to a title. Whether they could do it next season depends on the rest of the roster.

Brandon Ingram would easily be the best third banana in the NBA, at least on offense. The last time a player this talented had the luxury of playing off of two better guys was Klay on the KD/Steph Warriors, and they fared pretty well. Curry and Durant were obviously two all-time greats in their prime and Ingram isn’t the shooter that Thompson was (because few ever have been), but he’s a fluid enough offensive player to play off of Ant and Jalen. This team also needs his creation juice more than most contenders do from their third guys.

On defense, this team has the sort of anchor in Jaren Jackson Jr that several recent champs have had, and arguably need. Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard were all DPOY-level guys on recent winners, while Bam Adebayo has manned the middle on two of the last four East champs. Jackson doesn’t make the same offensive impact as those guys, but on this squad, he wouldn’t need to. More importantly, his ability to space the floor opens up driving lanes for Brunson & Co.

And of course I’m burying the lede, which is that this would be by far the deepest team in the league, to the point that Josh Hart - a $20 million a year player - might not make the healthy rotation in a tight playoff series. That’s the luxury you have with supporting pieces like Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Austin Reaves, who are all two-way wings with elite skill sets for ancillary players. Throw in Tyrese Haliburton as a perfect change-of-pace combo guard off the bench and solid depth at the center position, and there’s almost no weak spot on the roster.

Almost.

I wrote earlier this summer that the Denver Nuggets are as well-positioned for sustained, championship-level success as any team since the 2015 Warriors. The biggest reason why, somewhat obviously, is that they have the best player in the world about to enter his prime.

In this past postseason, Jokic took on three defensive big men who have dominated the sport over the last half decade and mopped the floor with all of them. Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo never stood a chance, let alone poor Deandre Ayton, who gave up 35, 13 and 10 a night to Jokic in the Nuggets Suns series.

Jackson might be a better defender than all of these guys, but he has a clear and obvious kryptonite: foul trouble. He’s fared pretty well in his matchups with Jokic over the last few years, at least in terms of staying out of foul woes, but over a seven-game series, this might become an issue.

That Jokic vs JJJ matchup might very well decide the series, because otherwise, these two teams are evenly matched. Denver just romped to a ring with a 118.2 postseason offensive rating, which equalled the scoring prowess of the 2017 Warriors during their title run. They had no weak spot.

But they also lost two key contributors in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. They’ll rely on young players formerly outside the rotation to step in and fill those voids, but that transition may not be seamless. Just as important, they should now put a fifth guy on the court that Team USA can hide either Brunson or Haliburton on.

Jamal Murray may still have another level to reach, but in Edwards, Team USA has a guy who can really frustrate him once he crosses half court. On the other side of the floor, Aaron Gordon can help neutralize either Ingram or Bridges, but not both. That means Michael Porter Jr would be tasked with guarding a real guy - not exactly a welcome sight for Nuggets fans.

The other team that might be favored against Team USA is Phoenix, but even more so than against Denver, the depth advantage of the Americans might prove too much to overcome. With Edwards able to guard Booker and no great option for the Suns to put on Brunson, my vote would go to Team USA.

(As an aside, how fun would it be to see Mikal Bridges guard the guy he was traded for over a seven-game series? Mikal isn’t quite the sort of big and physical defender who really frustrated Durant, but still, I’d love to see him take his best shot).

The last two teams I’d give a fighting chance are Milwaukee and Golden State. Jackson Jr vs Giannis would be almost as much fun as the matchup with Jokic, and probably more favorable to the Americans. The better question: who does Bobby Portis play for in this series? Can we clone him? If so, who would win a staring contest between Portis and the duplicate version of himself?

One of life’s great mysteries, I suppose.

That leaves Golden State, and the question that has plagued many teams over the last decade: how do we slow down Steph? It would be a team effort for sure, but unlike some Warrior teams of yesteryear, I’m not sure this one has the requisite supporting cast to punish a defense that really hones in on stopping the two-time MVP.

My final verdict: With a full training camp together, Team USA would finish the regular season with the best win total in the league by a comfortable margin, maybe even making a run at 70 wins. There’s never been an NBA team with their depth. What they don’t have in top end talent, they make up for in seven or eight guys who could go for 40 on any given night. One of the perks of a $200 million payroll¹.

In the playoffs, while I’d bet on at least one seven-game series, I think the Americans would have enough to go all the way. Moving forward, this roster is still young with a ton of upside (we haven’t even really discussed Paolo Banchero, who is freaking awesome). I’d put the over/under on 2.5 total titles over the next five seasons.

(Now if they can just go out and win the gold at FIBA so I don’t look ridiculous, it would be much appreciated!)

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. Also, a big thanks to our sponsor:

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1. Fun fact: Team USA wouldn’t have the highest payroll in the NBA. Golden State has them beat by about $2 million. That would change a year from now though, when extensions for Edwards, Haliburton and Hart would take Team USA over $260 million in total salaries. Still not too bad!