The Latest (& Greatest) Randle-sance

Guess who's biz-zack.

Good morning! And can I say one more time for the record, goodness gracious am I happy they got that win on Monday. It feels like it gave us a fighting chance for the gauntlet that lies ahead, although hopefully, tonight won’t be too tough a test…

Game Night

TONIGHT: Knicks at Jazz, 9 pm

Injury Report: Mitchell Robinson is obviously OUT but Immanuel Quickley is QUESTIONABLE. For the Jazz, Lauri Markkannen hasn’t played since November 22, while Walker Kessler missed the last game with a sore foot. Both players, along with John Collins (illness), are QUESTIONABLE, while Jordan Clarkson is OUT.

Halftime Zoom: Here’s the link for tonight

What to watch for: Can the Knicks log an easy win in the month of December?

After tonight, the next time the Knicks play a team with a losing record or a negative net rating will be when they face the Bulls on January 3. For that reason, it would behoove them to take care of business against a 7-16 Jazz team that has:

• a bottom-five offense

• a bottom-five defense, and

• the second worst net rating in the league over their last 10 games, ahead of only the Pistons, who are not an actual basketball team

Take care of business, boys. You’ll be happy you did.

Before we move on to today’s column, a quick tip of the cap to RJ Barrett, who I glossed over in yesterday’s newsletter. Barrett had a rough first three quarters but was absolutely instrumental to the victory, going a perfect 5-for-5 from the field in the fourth quarter for 12 big points. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 24 points while shooting 55 percent on twos and 35 percent on threes.

Slowly but surely, he’s working his way back to his early season form.

The Latest (& Greatest) Randle-sance

Going back and rewatching Julius Randle’s offensive performance last night - one that should force the 2022 Rookie of the Year to replace “BARNES” with “NOT HIM” on the back of his jersey the next time these two teams face off - I was struck by how it started off.

Even though the vast majority of Randle’s dominance occurred inside the arc, two of his first three shots came from behind it. Both times, the Raptors gave him room, and both times he fired without hesitation, making one.

This feels like an appropriate starting point from which to examine not only Randle’s game but his season, especially compared to his Knicks career as a whole. Starting out as a guy who was viewed purely as a paint-bound battering ram with elite skill when he entered the league, Julius has transformed himself time and time again, from a semi-regular small-ball five in his last season in LA and his lone season in New Orleans, to a mid-range maestro during the “We Here” year in New York, to one of the highest volume 3-point shooters in the league last season, to whatever we have now (Julius 5.0, I think?)

The one commonality through it all has been a shooting range that extended farther and farther. Each year he’s been in the league, save for one modest step back from year-three to year-four, Randle has increased his 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. Never was there a more drastic leap than last season, when he hoisted more threes per game than Luka Doncic, Paul George and James Harden, among other notable perimeter players around the NBA.

Now though, he’s scaling it back, to nearly as significant a degree as he leveled up last year. His 5.6 long range looks per 36 minutes are a shade over the 5.5 per 36 he hoisted in 2021-22, and over the last dozen games, it’s down to 4.5 per 36 - second lowest among non-center Knicks ahead of only Josh Hart.

Perhaps not coincidentally, after shooting just under 26 percent from deep over his first 10 games, that number has popped up to 37 percent.

Less, apparently, is more.

In the ongoing search for the idealized offensive version of Julius Randle¹, hitting roughly 36-37 percent of four to five 3-point attempts per game feels about right. The reason, as you probably guessed, has to do with keeping defenses honest.

But unlike last year, when the threat of Randle’s threes helped set up his own forays into the paint, this is more about maintaining spacing for the other four players on the court². That’s because Julius has ascended to a level where he really can’t be guarded, regardless of whether you respect his jumper or not.

Take this possession at the end of first quarter, where Scottie Barnes goes under the Sims screen not once, but twice: