The OG Anunoby Leap: a Deep Dive

Let's get into the weeds on exactly what we've been seeing over the last six weeks.

Good morning! The Knicks can clinch third tonight with a win or a Pacers loss against Washington. New York will close out their season series against the Celtics, although it’s anyone’s guess how many of Boston’s main guys will play. Tatum, Brown and KP are all questionable, while Al Horford is out. For New York, JB and Deuce are probable. Come say hi at halftime.

The OG Anunoby Leap: a Deep Dive

Part of the challenge in explaining OG Anunoby’s leap is that it’s hard to know exactly when lift-off occurred.

Going back and reviewing his last two months’ worth of stats, maybe the best analogy is that of an actual rocket launch. An inordinate amount of energy is used just to get the thing off the ground, but the efficiency, ahem…skyrockets once it’s flying through the air.

For a full understanding of what we’re witnessing, we have to go back to Anunoby’s return one game after the All-Star break, when he had three straight subpar outings before hitting the game-winning shot against Memphis. Anunoby did score 19 points against the Grizzlies, but on just 7-of-17 shooting. Notably though, he put up 10 threes, making four.

It was only the fourth time in 53 games he hoisted double digit threes, averaging just 5.7 long range attempts up to that point in the season. During the 20-game stretch beginning in Memphis though, that number has bumped up to 7.5. For context, Anunoby went into last night with the 10th most 3-point attempts in the league since February 28. Among the players ahead of him, only Devin Vassell is converting those looks at a higher clip.

This, I think, is the genesis of what we’re currently seeing from the former Toronto Raptor. By firing away so willingly from 3-point range and hitting those looks at such a high clip, teams are forced to guard up on him at all times. His season-long emergence as an above-the-break threat plays into this as well, as does the presence of a stretch five who opens up the paint for Anunoby’s forays.

OG is far from the only Knick who benefits immensely from KAT’s presence, but it’s still worth noting that they score 116.1 points per 100 when OG is on the floor without Towns and 121.6 when they’re together¹. Going back and rewatching all of his makes from the last 10 games, it’s amazing how much he benefits from KAT’s ability to see and pass over the top of the defense from the top of the key.

Getting back to that Memphis game, while Anunoby scored 19 against the Grizz and at least that many in six of seven after that, his effective field goal percentage was 53 percent or less in eight of the next 11 games. The 11th game, against Charlotte, saw OG tie a season high with a dozen 3-point attempts. Tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back with travel can be blamed for both that high number of threes and the fact that only three of the 12 went through the hoop. On the flip side, he was 4-of-7 from 2-point range, starting with a pump fake and go on his first score of the game.

The Hornets loss was just the third time in 14 games after the All-Star break when Anunoby made more than half of his shots inside the arc. To go back to our analogy, he was launching the rocket off the ground, driving relentlessly but not getting the proper payoff for the amount of energy expended. Now he’s in orbit, hitting above 50 percent of his twos in nine of his last 10 games, with a 4-for-9 showing in Cleveland the lone exception.

In total, exactly a third of Anunoby’s 99 made field goals in these 10 games have come from behind the arc. Of those 2-pointers, here’s the breakdown I found from watching all 66 of them:

• Transition or semi-transition finishes: 25

• Finishes off cuts: 13

• Half-court drives to the restricted area from above the break: 13

• Mid-rangers: 8 (2 vs Cavs)

• Offensive rebound put-backs: 3 (two of which came after own miss)

• Half-court drives to the restricted area from the corner: 2

• Post-ups: 1

• Miscellaneous: 1²

I picked 10 of the 66 to highlight some of the reasons why OG has been so effective, starting with this drive against the Washington Generals:

The key to this play is that KAT sets the screen, so Sarr can’t ignore his man after Anunoby gets rolling downhill. OG winds up rejecting the screen, which is something he does quite often, taking advantage of the fact that defenders play him to go right with his dominant hand. Lucky for the Knicks, Anunoby has become highly proficient driving the ball and finishing with either hand.

One thing to note on this play is that while Josh Hart’s defender is sagging into the paint, Justin Champagnie makes the business decision not to get involved once OG gets rolling. This won’t be the case in the playoffs.

Next up, we have a cut from the weak-side corner against the Dallas Mavericks: