The Process Beckons

We look towards the future in the West. Plus, Joel Embiid caused a stir.

Good morning to everyone, but especially to a certain MVP in Philadelphia…

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Joel Embiid said a thing, and it got people’s attention.

The video is worth a watch, but you get the gist. Embiid is a smart guy who doesn’t say things by accident. If Daryl Morey wasn’t already on notice, he certainly is now.

As for the Knicks, they’re already installed as the betting favorites to be Embiid’s next team if he’s dealt at 2-to-1, just ahead of the Nets (5/2), Mavs (7/2), Pels (9/2), Heat (11/2) and Lakers (13/2). I half-joked yesterday about a future where New York and Brooklyn are battling it out for the next superstar to hit the market. Guess I was onto something after all.

It doesn’t take much imagination to forecast the Knicks’ likely package. Mitchell Robinson for sure, RJ Barrett (or, should Philly prefer, the best pick New York can pry from a third team in exchange for Barrett, a’la the unfolding Miami/Dame/Herro scenario), one of Quickley or Grimes (my guess is that the Knicks would want to keep Grimes, although Maxey and Quick seem a bit redundant) and draft equity. I’d assume New York would relent and give Morey what he really wants - distant unprotected picks - in exchange for the Knicks being able to keep more near-term selections as a way to restock the coffers with cheap talent.

If this haul seems over the top, imagine being Leon Rose and looking across the river, thinking about what his legacy would be if he allowed the trade target he’s coveted all along to be dealt the fucking Nets. Brooklyn has better future picks than New York and more of them. One assumes they wouldn’t put Mikal Bridges on the table, because what would be left of the roster for Embiid to play with in that scenario, but who knows? Maybe Philly getting the hometown kid they should have kept when they drafted him five years ago would be important enough to bypass a haul of picks, which would in turn allow the Nets to keep enough draft equity to make a second blockbuster trade and bring aboard a fello star to play with Embiid. Four years ago, the Nets pulled off the once unthinkable “clean sweep.” Doubt their ability to do it again at your own risk.

(I understand Embiid could grease the skids to MSG by demanding a trade to the Knicks and only the Knicks. Even if he were to be that forward though - and there’s reasons to believe he won’t be - Morey won’t make a deal he doesn’t love. Also, I wouldn’t put it past the Nets to bet on their own ability to win Embiid over, even if they aren’t his first choice.)

All of this, of course, can be swiftly bypassed if Rose doesn’t fuck around. A core of Embiid, Brunson, Randle, Hart, DiVincenzo, Grimes/Quickley and Hartenstein could contend immediately. They’d pick up a ring chaser or two and count on Deuce and/or a first rounder next season to fill in the gaps.

Point is, Leon lived to tell the tale of the trade not made last summer because he knew Utah’s asking price would take him out of the running for that bigger, better star down the line. That bigger & better star just tossed the opening salvo of his exit campaign.

There is no next star. This is the guy they’ve been waiting for.

Forecasting the Future...Out West

You know the drill from yesterday’s preamble. I’m going through the teams in the opposite conference to see who is likeliest to be in the mix for a title between two and five years down the road.

In case you missed my East rankings, click here.