Forecasting the Future

Today we scope out the future of the East, examine a trade not made, and recap the final two games in Vegas.

Good morning! The dog days of the NBA summer are almost officially here, as play is set to wrap up in Vegas tonight. Fear not though: I have a bunch of fun stuff in store for the months ahead. As always, “Ask Macri” questions are always welcome…just hit me up at KnicksFilmSchool@gmail.com. Lastly. a huge thanks to Geoff Rasmussen (better known as Frank Barrett on Twitter) for penning all of the Summer League recaps over the last week and a half. Be sure to follow him and check out all his stuff at TheStrick.Land next season!

🗣️ News & Notes ✍️

🏀 It’s much ado about nothing now, as Cam Payne was traded to San Antonio yesterday, but Michael Scotto reported on Saturday that the Knicks had some exploratory talks with the Pacers and Suns about a three-way deal that would have netted them Payne and dumped Evan Fournier to Indiana. Per Scotto:

“New York, Phoenix, and Indiana had exploratory discussions on a three-team trade where Cam Payne would’ve joined the Knicks, TJ McConnell would’ve joined the Suns, and Evan Fournier and draft pick compensation would’ve gone to the Pacers, league sources told HoopsHype. There were also variations of the talks, which involved Jordan Nwora, HoopsHype has learned. Had the trade come to fruition, New York would’ve created a traded player exception of over $19 million.”

The only way this would have worked would have been for the Knicks to take Payne into the trade exception created when Obi was dealt to the Pacers. That, in turn, would have allowed the Knicks to create an exception for the full amount of Evan Fournier’s expiring salary.

Why might New York have been interested in such a deal, besides finding a new home for Evan Fournier? Simply put, creating a trade exception of this size would have given the front office one more useful tool at their disposal to try and swing a trade. For example: let’s say we get to midseason and some team in the luxury tax is performing below expectations and looking to dump a mid-tier player without taking any money back in the transaction. The Knicks would have been able to take such a player into the trade exception created in this deal, and because they’d be saving the other team a lot of cash, likely not have to give as much by way of assets in the trade.

Alas, it was not to be.

Vegas Recaps: Games 4 & 5

by Geoff Rasmussen

And just like that, the Knicks’ Summer League is over. What was supposed to be a short four-game stint was extended to five games when the Nuggets were added to the Knicks’ schedule at the last minute. What does that mean? For starters, we have two games to break down for you instead of just one. But were there any ramifications related to the Knicks’ impending campaign? Let’s dive in…

The Penultimate Game

The first of the two games was played Friday night against the Boston Celtics and ended up being the more exciting of the two for Knicks fans. Despite being eliminated from Summer League Playoff contention, the Knicks ran out almost their entire Summer League team against the Celtics. The only absent Knicks were Jaylen Martin and DaQuan Jeffries, two players the organization is apparently excited about.

Speaking of exciting, Trevor Keels finished his summer league strong. There is a surprising amount of pessimism around the Keels draft selection as if he represents a deviation from the norm for the Knicks’ Front Office. With Keels, it’s important to remember two things: 1) he was the 42nd pick, and 2) despite being drafted over a year ago, he hasn’t even turned 20 years old. It is unlikely Keels is going to be a home run, but with how he defends and competes, if he finds a consistent 3-point shot (33.3% in Summer League, 4-of-5 against Boston), there will be a place in the league for him.

The Knicks grabbed a stranglehold on this game early and didn’t look back. After the first quarter, the Knicks were up 11 points and extended that lead to 19 by halftime. It seemed as if everyone chipped in. Isaiah Roby, who is still trying to prove to Head Coach Tom Thibodeau he could be a backup power forward candidate, had 17 points on just nine field goal attempts. Charlie Brown Jr. led the way with 27 points (10-of-16 from the field), seven rebounds, five assists, two steals and a block. 

A Great Story

You may have noticed the role of QJ Peterson, who started the summer out of the rotation, grow after each game. Peterson, a 28-year-old undrafted guard out of VMI, was a late invite to the Knicks’ team. After their final game against the Nuggets, Peterson let his fans in on what the process is like for a guy trying to grind out a job as a professional basketball player.

Peterson is everything that is right with basketball. And sports. Over the past five years, Peterson has played basketball in Korea, Cyprus, Ukraine, Denmark, Turkey, China, the Czech Republic, and the G-League. Standing just over six feet tall, Peterson hasn’t been able to find a place to call home. But that has not deterred him from trying.

If you read Peterson’s Instagram post it appears he understands what far too many do not: Summer League is not about proving you’re a star; it’s about proving you can be a star in a role. After speaking with Thibodeau, Peterson understood that scoring would not be his ticket to prominence. Instead, it would be hustle, defense, and shooting. Against the Nuggets, Peterson’s effort jumped off the screen as he almost led the Knicks to a comeback victory. He had 25 points on just 17 shots, firing away from beyond the arc, all the while picking up the opposing offensive players from baseline to baseline, hounding them the entire way.

I don’t know what the rest of Peterson’s career looks like, and maybe he’ll continue to add new stamps to his passport. But with the emphasis the Knicks have placed on culture, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Knicks tried to keep him around. 

The End of Summer

It’s been over 100 years since J.M. Berrie wrote the famous line, “All children, except one, grow up.” The Knicks’ summer ended with a whimper. They did not appear in the Summer League playoffs and it appears unlikely that any player who took part will make much of an impact on the 2023-2024 Knicks. All is quiet on the northeastern front. A little too quiet.

Maybe there truly is contentment in paradise. Maybe the Knicks feel no pressure to do anything other than run it back. But all children, except one, grow up, and so too will this Knicks team. The core remains young, but the pail can only be kicked up the road for so long before expectations rise. This feels like the fork in the road for the Knicks. The East is as gettable at the top as it’s been since LeBron James was drafted in 2003. Will the Knicks continue to play the waiting game? Or will they cash in on the fantastic hand they’ve dealt themselves?

I don’t know, but I’m excited to find out.

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Forecasting the Future

Today’s “Ask Macri” comes from Jason A, who asks:

Who do you think will be contenders out of the east in the next 2-5 years? Obviously trades will happen and things will change with individual rosters, but taking every Eastern Conference team's infrastructure and current roster into account, who is projected to be at the top?

I usually scoff when I see a “Future Power Rankings” article on one of the major sites, mostly because the concept is too amorphous to have any real meaning. When you factor in unknowns like internal development, trades, signings, hitting on low draft picks (or missing on high ones), firing and hiring new coaches, front office staff, etc, such rankings seem almost meaningless.

And yet I’m leading the week with one today. The reason has to do with the conversation surrounding the Knicks this summer. Specifically, we’ve been able to digest six weeks worth of rumors and can now come to the following conclusion: New York will be in on just about every star, but won’t be all the way in on any star…unless its the right star. From this, we can draw a second reasonable conclusion, which is that the front office feels fairly confident in the hand they’re currently holding.

Should they be? That’s the question I’m seeking to answer today by zooming out and taking a 10,000 foot view of how well each team is set up for (as Jason asks) two to five years out. I cannot emphasize enough that this is anything by an exact science. My first team, the Celtics, was already in dire need of a floor general, and they just traded away their best one. Meanwhile, several team I have outside of the top eight could easily be atop this list in a year or two if they hit on a draft picks and/or their best player makes “the leap.”

With all that as context, here’s by best attempt at a list…

1. Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum is 25 and will almost certainly sign a supermax next summer. Assuming the Jaylen Brown extension gets done, Boston will have their Scottie Pippen under contract through his age-31 season. New addition Kristaps Porzingis seems like he’s been in the league forever, but will only be turning 28 in August. He just added two more years to the remaining season left on his deal. Finally, Derrick White is a tad older (just turned 29) and under contract for just two more years, but his game shouldn’t be impacted too much by age, and the CBA’s new allowance for a 140 percent extension makes it likely the Celtics can keep him from unrestricted free agency if they so choose.

Those four players alone will comprise basically the entirety of the salary cap for the foreseeable future, but they’re worth the price of admission. The benefit Boston has over so many other contenders is that they’ve managed to maintain their own draft stock as they’ve built out the roster, with only a top-one protected 2028 pick swap owed to San Antonio. They also managed to pick up a top-four protected 2024 Warriors pick in the Marcus Smart trade. That could be decent.

They’ll need to hit on some of those upcoming picks to maintain the necessary depth for sustained long playoff runs, but all in all, Boston remains as well positioned for both the present and future as any team in the league - even if they do still have questions on the point guard front.

2. New York Knicks

3. Brooklyn Nets

I have the local squads in a virtual tie, and I’ll get to why I have the Knicks a smidgen higher in a bit. First, those annoying gnats across the river…

Just as they laid the blueprint for how not to go all-in on an aging roster with the infamous KG/Pierce trade a decade ago, Brooklyn did about as well as anyone could have hoped for in the deal that sent KD to Phoenix.

In exchange for Durant, the Nets got a future swap and four unprotected first rounders, one of which turned into the 22nd pick in the 2023 draft. More importantly, they swapped one great wing for two damn good ones, and now sport arguably the third best wing pairing in basketball after Boston and the Clippers’ rickety duo. With Cam Johnson on a fair four-year deal and Mikal Bridges on one of the best value contracts league-wide, Brooklyn is set at the toughest positions to fill at a very nice price point.

They also have Dorian Finney-Smith on a good number for the next two years, but not too good of a number that he won’t consider an extension. Nic Claxton is expiring and will probably wind up a bit overpaid, but he’s 24 and still on the rise. Oh, and they have a protected pick owed by Philly from the Harden deal and a juicy future unprotected selection owed by Dallas from the Kyrie trade.

Even with all that going for them, this ranking probably seems high for Brooklyn because if you ranked every East team by their best player, the Nets would be no higher than sixth and might be outside the top 10. If they improve their ceiling by cashing in some or all of those owed picks for a star, they’ll sacrifice their future in the process because so many of their own picks are out the door from the first Harden trade. Even so, those picks might comprise the best pick-centric trade package in the NBA outside of OKC, and Brooklyn will be confident in its ability to retain any star they trade for.

I can see it now: five years after KD chose the Nets over the Knicks, it’ll be Brooklyn vs New York again when Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or whatever star decides he wants out next. Fun times, indeed.

Even so, I have the Knicks atop the Nets, albeit by a hair. Why? Jalen Brunson. That’s it. That’s the reason.

Thankfully, it’s the only reason we need. Ask yourself: how many 28-and-under stars in the East would you pick over Brunson, who turns 27 in August? There’s Giannis (we’re getting to him shortly) and the Boston duo (I’d take Brunson over Brown, but reasonable minds may differ), but outside of them, who is there? Even after their last two postseason battles, Donovan Mitchell is still arguably the superior player to Jalen, but it’s damn close, and the clock is ticking on Mitchell’s time in Cleveland. Maybe Paolo Banchero gets there in a few years, but that’s no sure bet either.

With Brunson at the helm, the Knicks may not have the best player on a title team, but they sure have a guy who can be the best player on the floor in the last five minutes of any game, anywhere, in any playoff round. Give that dude a real horse, and he’ll ride all the way to the title.

In my (albeit biased) eyes, that - plus the picks, young players, and bevy of solid contracts - is enough to have the Knicks second on this list. As for who that horse might be…

4. Milwaukee Bucks

If we put Giannis and his prodigious talent aside for a moment, there are three numbers that define this team, both now and in the years to come.

First, 101. That’ll be the total combined age of Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez on opening night.

Next, 91. That’s their total combined salary for next season. Or, when added to Antetokounmpo’s $45.6 million, the entirety of the salary cap.

Finally, 28. That’s the average number of games missed by Holiday, Middleton and Lopez over each of their last two seasons.

There are other unsightly numbers to point out, such as 30 (Jrue’s career postseason 3-point percentage in Milwaukee) or four (the consecutive seasons we’ve seen Middleton’s efficiency decrease, from a career-high 57.5 in 2019-20 to an unsettling 49.9 last year), but you get the point. Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton are good, but this team has no exciting young talent in the pipeline, and their big offseason addition, Malik Beasley, couldn’t crack LA’s playoff rotation. To top it off, Milwaukee doesn’t own a first round draft pick in two of the next four years, with swaps owed to New Orleans in the other two.

You can argue the Bucks are the title favorites next season, but looking out beyond the next 12 months, it’s impossible to put them higher than fourth here.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

I originally had them seventh, using the rationale that there’s no good solution to the Harden fiasco and that Embiid could easily ask out as a result.

I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt though and putting them here for one reason: regardless of what happens with Harden, I’m betting Daryl Morey maintains a clean cap sheet going into next summer - one that should include nothing besides Embiid’s $51.4 million, Maxey’s $13 million cap hold, and P.J. Tucker’s $11.5 million player option that can be waved and stretched if need be. That’s enough space to add one max salary and a second significant contract.

On the downside, getting to max space assumes they say goodbye to Tobias Harris in addition to Harden. Most of the best names that could hit the market are also old (LeBron, PG13, Kawhi, Klay, Jrue, DeRozan) or poor fits with Embiid (AD). Philly basically has to hope one of the Toronto guys shakes loose and that Maxey ascends to stardom.

On second thought, maybe bumping them to fifth wasn’t smart after all.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

As much as it would pain me to do so, I’d have them second if I knew Donovan Mitchell was going to extend and stay in Cleveland. Evan Mobley is too tantalizing a talent to have them lower, and Garland’s best might also be yet to come.

Alas, Donovan is a flight risk, and their future draft equity is shot because of the trade to get him from Utah.

7. Orlando Magic

Before we even get to the roster, let’s take a second to praise arguably the best cap situation in the league.

Thanks to the team options on the second years of Joe Ingles’ and Moe Wagner’s recently signed contracts and the fact that Jonathan Isaac’s 2024-25 salary is completely non-guaranteed, the only guaranteed non-rookie salary on their books past this season is that of Wendell Carter Jr, and Carter is a steal on a declining pact that pays him an average of $12 million over the next three years.

So why, with the league’s best young 3/4 combo in Paolo and Franz Wagner, aren’t they higher? Because there’s no premium backcourt player coming on the market in the next few years, and this team’s guards are still mostly question marks, at least if we’re talking players capable of making them a contender. Had they landed Scoot, I might have them second. Without that dude though, this is where they go.

8. Miami

Dame or no Dame, their timeline is now. Like Milwaukee, the Heat might be the title favorites going into next season, but their long term outlook is far bleaker, #HeatCulture and Bam Adebayo notwithstanding.

The Best of the Rest

Indiana is the most glaring omission from the top eight, but I just don’t know how to properly calibrate the ceiling of their current core. At the very least, they’re set up to be solid for a long time. Washington has great lottery odds to look forward over the next few years, but that’s about it. I have zero faith in Atlanta ever graduating from mid-dom, although if they can somehow swing a Siakam trade they’d warrant a spot in the top eight.

Speaking of Siakam, the uncertainty in Toronto combined with their egregious recent talent drain keeps the Raptors down here. Cade alone should have Detroit higher but his status as a no-doubt-about-it future star is, well…in doubt.

Respective womp womp’s for Chicago and Charlotte.

Conclusion

For as much uncertainty as there is around how and when the Knicks will get their hands on that elusive top banana, we know they have the ammo and a front office that won’t hesitate. At that point, assuming its the right guy, they might become favorites in the East.

That’s still a lot of mights and maybes for a second place ranking on a list like this, but the fact that they’re that high speaks to a few realities. First, there’s immense parity in the conference at the moment, to the point that even the presumptive favorites for the next half decade are anything but a surety. Second, the other current top dogs are either aging, on rickety foundations, or both. Finally, so many other would-be threats to trade for an Embiid or a Giannis have already emptied their chamber. New York, meanwhile, is locked and loaded.

We’ll see what happens with those best laid plans soon enough. For now, the Knicks just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing: put one foot in front of the other and be smart¹.

That’s usually easier said than done ‘round these parts, but under Leon Rose, “hope” hasn’t been the dirty, four-letter word it used to be.

Tomorrow: I rank the West.

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That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. Also, a big thanks to our sponsor:

See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. I have to say this one last time: with the amount of good accomplished by this front office and this coach in the last three seasons, it is positively astounding how much a very vocal segment of the fan base has yelled and screamed about the Obi Toppin situation. Was it an organizational failure across the board? Without question. But the reality of the outcome - that the Knicks selected a role player 8th overall and maybe didn’t give him as much of a chance to look like a higher end role player than he did - does not rank among the 25 biggest Knicks misfires of the last few decades. It’s unfortunate all around. So is spilt milk. Let’s not keep making it a bigger deal than it is.