Top 5 Remaining Summer Questions

What loose ends are left to tie up between now and training camp?

Good morning! Hope everyone had a great extended July 4 weekend.

As a reminder, today’s is the LAST free Monday edition of the KFS Newsletter this summer. I’ll be back sending out the Monday edition to all subscribers around mid-September. For full subscribers though, the fun is just getting started. You’ll still get three KFS Newsletters in your inbox every week, plus bonus editions if and when called for. I’ll be soliciting reader inquiries for many of those editions, so stay on the lookout for a call for mailbag questions very soon.

And if you’re not a full subscriber, what better time to change that than right now 👇

News & Notes

Associate Head Coach Johnnie Bryant, who was one of Leon Rose’s first hires when he took over control of basketball operations in 2020, agreed to take on the same position with the Cleveland Cavaliers working under new coach Kenny Atkinson. Bryant has been mentioned by several players as an influential voice over the years, although it’s unclear whether there was a path to a head coaching opportunity here in New York.

Top 5 Remaining Summer Questions

The heavy lifting has been done.

As things stand, the Knicks will enter next season as one of the main competitors to the Boston Celtics in the East, and among the handful or so of teams with the best odds for the 2024 NBA championship.

I gotta say, it’s a pretty cool place to be.

Even so, unknowns still exist, and there’s a lot that’s going to happen between now and the beginning of October that will not only shape the outlook for the Knicks in ‘24-25, but for years into the future.

On that note, here are my top five remaining questions for the rest of the offseason:

5. Do Any East Contenders Make a Big Move?

This is the only question that isn’t directly related to the Knicks, not because it isn’t highly consequential, but because it’s hard to see any of the East heavyweights doing anything seismic at this point.

Boston is locked and loaded. Philly has finished their shopping spree, give or take a Kyle Lowry. Likewise, Orlando used up their cap space, springing for KCP but otherwise running it back. Indiana will return the core that got them to the East finals. Despite early rumblings about Jimmy Butler’s discontent over the lack of a contract extension, Miami also seems poised to run it back with Alec Burks playing the role of Caleb Martin, who signed with the Sixers this weekend.

The two potential wild cards both reside in the Central division. The Bucks sured up their rotation with Taurean Prince and Delon Wright, but there have still been murmurs of Brook Lopez being on the block. It’ll be interesting to see how long those continue.

And then there is Cleveland, which breathed a sigh of relief when Donovan Mitchell decided to sign an extension, but still has what appears to be a redundant roster. Darius Garland seems likely to stay, but Evan Mobley hasn’t yet signed a rookie extension and Jarrett Allen may be taking up his ideal position.

Whatever the Bucks and Cavs decide to do, it’s hard to see either of them leapfrogging the Knicks in the East pecking order. Still, their remaining transactions bear watching.

4. Who Will Open Eyes at Summer League?

As of early last month, Stefan Bondy reported that 2021 draft & stash pick Rokas Jokubaitis would consider playing in Vegas, but only if Lithuania failed to qualify for the Olympics.

Well, they lost to Puerto Rico last night, opening the door for Rokas to appear in Vegas for the first time in three years.

But he isn’t the only point guard that warrants attention.

Tyler Kolek recently signed for more guaranteed money than any previous second round pick in the history of the draft, which bodes well for his Knicks future. Kolek probably can’t play his way into the healthy rotation, but he can certainly give himself a leg up on being the first guy off the bench if and when a guard has to sit out.

Beyond him, Pacome Dadiet will be New York’s highest draft pick to suit up in Vegas since Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes bullied their way through the draw two years ago. Because of his age - he doesn’t turn 19 until later this month - Dadiet doesn’t figure to make much of an impact this season, but we’ve seen surprises emerge from summer league before.

Last but not least, two of the last three picks from June’s draft should get a chance to impress. Kevin McCuller Jr and Ariel Jukporti both figure to snag two-way spots this season, but that shouldn’t cap their ceiling. Jericho Sims was on a two-way and still managed to play over 500 minutes as a rookie, which eventually helped him earn a full NBA contract.

If nothing else, the opportunity will be there for all these guys to make an impression.

3. Who Else Will Play Center?

At this point, I’m assuming Mitchell Robinson isn’t going anywhere, health risks be damned.

Once Isaiah Hartenstein left and they figured out the money on the Mikal trade, it was always going to be tough to find a Robinson trade that a) made sense, b) made them better and c) was necessary. For any concerns that exist about Mitch staying on the court, his fit and upside remain potent enough selling points for the team to be choosy about a trade involving their longest tenured player.

But that only fills part of the I-Hart-sized hole left in the middle of this roster.

Last year, Robinson played just 19.5 percent of the available minutes at the five. The season before that, it was 40 percent. The year before that - his healthiest season under Thibs - it was still just under 47 percent.

Point is, even if Mitch is mostly healthy, the coaching staff will have to account for some 2,000 minutes at center.

I’ll have a profile of Ariel Hukporti in an upcoming newsletter, but 58th picks are 58th picks for a reason. We know as much from watching three years of Jericho Sims, who is a nice enough fill-in but not a full time rotation guy on a team with title hopes.

Will they really bank on Precious Achiuwa to this degree? Do they have eyes for the recently released Paul Reed? Or is a trade still a possibility? My guess is that we find out sooner rather than later.

2. Will Jalen Brunson Extend?

Let’s lay out what’s at stake.

If Jalen Brunson decides to sign an extension this summer (he becomes eligible on July 12), he’d be opting out of his 2025-26 player option and signing a brand new four-year, $156 million deal. That would add $34.9 million to the books the year after next.

Alternatively, Brunson could bypass extending now and sign for a 30 percent max next June. That would pay him $46.4 million in ‘25-26, which is $11.5 million more than he’d be making on the extension he can sign right now.

How big a deal is $11.5 million?

If Brunson extends now, the Knicks will have about $184.1 million in committed salary between 10 players in ‘25-26: Jalen, Julius, OG, Mikal, Hart, Mitch, DiVincenzo, Deuce, Dadiet and Kolek. That’s nearly $12 million below the first apron and $33.7 million below the second apron. At Brunson’s larger number, they’d be right up against the first apron and about $22 million below the second apron, but that number is also deceiving.

As we’ll get to with our No. 1 question below, Randle’s salary represents a significant swing factor as well. He’s currently on the books for $30.9 million in ‘25-26, but that’s a player option he’s almost certain to opt out of. At the max number the Knicks can extend him on now, he’d be making $40.5 million in ‘25-26. If he’s on his full max, which is only available to him after the end of the ‘24-25 season, it’s $54.1 million.

You can do the math. If Brunson signs for his higher number, Randle (or whoever is occupying Randle’s salary slot) will almost certainly them over the second apron, and that’s before they even fill out the rest of the roster. If Brunson extends now, they’d be close enough to the second apron to avoid going over it. That is a massive difference.

Which brings us to…

1. Will Julius Randle Extend (and what happens if he doesn’t)?

Julius Randle isn’t as important to this franchise as Jalen Brunson, and I’m fairly certain that no one - even Randle himself - would argue otherwise.

But for all the looming second apron concerns that exist around Brunson’s possible extension, there’s little to no doubt that he’ll be a Knick for a very, very long time.

The same can’t be said of Julius, which is why this question tops the list. Even with the team’s performance in January, there will continue to be questions about Randle’s long term fit. Part of that is because of his game (defensive and shooting inconsistency) and part of it is because of his playoff performances, but as usual, the biggest part might come down to money.

Want to know the most underrated part of the Mikal Bridges trade, and why New York’s front office was likely comfortable giving up such a haul? Because his salary is so low over the next two seasons, if Brunson extends this summer (as many assume he will), the Knicks will probably be able to avoid the second apron not only in the 2025-26 season, but in the 2026-27 season as well.

The one wild card in that equation is Randle. As we detailed above, if Julius insists on waiting until next summer to sign for the most money possible, he might box the Knicks into a corner: pay up, go over the second apron…or risk losing me for nothing.

There’s also another way this could go. If he’s not amenable to a team-friendly(ish) deal come August 3 - the earliest date he can extend - will that embolden the front office to listen more intently if and when opposing teams call about his availability?

We’ll dive much deeper into that question later this week.

🏀

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”