Youth Movement?

Which young Knick is the hardest to let go of? The easiest? The one with the highest ceiling? I tackle those questions to start the week.

Good morning! Another week, another edition of “will they or wont they?” featuring Leon Rose and Danny Ainge. It’s been two weeks since the rumors first hit, and Donovan Mitchell is still in Utah. We’re at the point where the most significant news of the weekend is a Utah Jazz Team Store offering Mitchell jerseys at a steep discount. Sigh….

Hopefully news breaks soon so we don’t need to continue existing in this state of purgatory, but in the meantime, onwards and upwards we go with the Summer of Mailbag. Like I said last week, I’ll be tackling about three questions per week over the next eight weeks. If you’d like to submit and haven’t already, please send questions to KnicksFilmSchool@gmail.com. And if you’re not a full subscriber and want to change that, you know what to do:

Youth Movement?

We kick off the Summer of Mailbag with two-pack of related questions about New York’s young talent, starting with one from Rolling Stone’s Alan Sepinwall, who asks:

Assuming no other moves are made and one or both of Fournier and Rose go out in a Mitchell deal, which of the three main kids under discussion are you most willing to send to Utah, and which will Danny Ainge have to pry from your cold dead fingers?

On a related note, we have another question from Jordan M, who wonders:

Out of Grimes, Obi, and IQ who do you think has the highest ceiling as a basketball player?

I wanted to tackle these questions together not only because they’re related, but because they reveal something (to me at least) about the complexities of team-building. In short, the highest ceiling prospect may not necessarily be the one a team needs to hang on to at all costs in a trade.

Let me start with Alan’s question. I have answered it in different forms and fashions on recent podcasts and post-games, and my answer during each of those times has been Quentin Grimes. The primary reason should be obvious in that a player of Grimes’ archetype is the most valuable non-star commodity in the game today.

What is that archetype? This is as good an opportunity for a mini-rant about the need to retire the “3 & D” label, or at least add context to it whenever used. I may have used this comp before, but Reggie Bullock and Klay Thompson are two players whose primary value comes from 3-point shooting and defense, and yet Bullock signed for the midlevel exception last summer while Klay is a max player.

Post-injury and at this age, I’m not sure Klay would get that same contract if he hit the open market right now, but someone would still happily pay him two to three times what Bullock got, and that’s because he can do things Bullock can’t. Reggie, as we remember, was often transformed into a gargoyle behind the arc when Atlanta crowded him in the 2021 playoffs, whereas Klay has always been able to put the ball on the floor and make a play…and that’s only the tip of the iceberg. When you factor in the threat of Thompson’s pull up, his range, his shooting off movement and his quick release (although Reggie’s is damn fast too) you get the massive difference in value.

Grimes is not yet Klay Thompson and almost certainly will never be. We’ve seen almost no evidence of movement shooting from him and he was just 9-of-35 on pull ups last year. At the same time, his deep range and high release point make him an incredibly tough cover on the perimeter, and he seems impervious to slumps, continuing to shoot (and eventually make) with confidence. When you add all that to the defense¹ and his ability to put the ball on the floor like he did in Vegas, I think it’s fair to say that Grimes’ peak is a $20+ million a year player, and more importantly, a guy who could get 25+ minutes on just about any team in the league.

How rare is what we just saw from Grimes in his rookie season? Here’s the list of rookies who have made at least 70 threes at a clip of 38 percent or higher over the last 11 years, courtesy of Basketball Reference:

While there’s something fitting about Q topping a list that starts with Klay, the more important (and impressive) feat is the company he keeps. Outside of a few outliers, there really aren’t many duds here. Also notable: Grimes got far fewer minutes as a rookie than almost anyone else on this list. Fellow 2020-21 rookie (and reported Knicks draft target) Trey Murphy III is the only other player under 1000 minutes, followed by Alex Abrines, who is probably the worst player on here. Abrines was never cut out for a bigger role. Perhaps the same is true of Grimes…or maybe his lack of playing times is the only reason he’s flying under the radar to begin with.

In a different world, maybe it wouldn’t be vital for the Knicks to hang on to such a player, but thanks to some poor recent decisions (Knox over Mikal being the most obvious), New York has no one else on the roster who can do what Grimes does. That’s another reason why he has an argument for being ahead of Obi and IQ, especially with a starting backcourt as vertically challenged as New York’s would be. The fact that he’s on a rookie deal for an extra year doesn’t hurt either.

Getting to Jordan’s question, I was ready to write something about how Amar'e Stoudemire made five All-NBA teams and how there’s a world where Toppin is used the same way. If so, maybe he has a similar impact on the game, and thus, a higher ceiling than any other Knick. Part of me wonders if that is true, but for as much as Toppin creates havoc with his frenetic movement, verticality, speed and across-the-board effort, he is a play finisher more than a play maker. In other words, he seems like someone whose productivity will largely remain dependent on those around him.

When I think “ceiling” in the league today, I think creation and horizontal spacing (and, in the case of the very best offenses, creation produced by that horizontal spacing). While I’d bet on Obi making an All-Star team before either Grimes or Quickley, I have to go with Q for the ceiling argument as well. Helping that stance is the fact that he’s the youngest, greenest and highest pedigree² player of the group.

And yet, if this trade goes down and it’s Grimes instead of Obi or IQ, I gotta be honest…I think it’s going to be the easiest for me to deal with.

Logically, this makes zero sense given everything I said above. Immanuel Quickley, for as much as we talk him up as a shooter, has mediocre efficiency overall and from deep through two years…and that is supposedly his best quality. While the “can he be a starting point guard in the right situation” conversation is a valid one, even his most optimistic supporters would agree that the most likely outcome on a good team is off the bench. If the Knicks trade for a second small guard who will play around 36 minutes a game, it’s fair to wonder just how large a role Quickley will have in a deep playoff run.

The same could be said of Toppin, who will find transition opportunities harder to come by in April, May and (God willing) June. For the Knicks to ever get good with him as the starter, he needs to become a 40 percent shooter on open catch & shoot threes, full stop. Obi-at-center is also still highly theoretical for regular season success, let alone beyond that.

So no, this isn’t a position I can defend with my head; it is almost purely a pick from the heart. That said, here’s what I know…or at least what I think I know: Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley were born to play home games at MSG. I haven’t felt this strongly about any young Knick since Danilo Galinari, who would have been brilliant here in the long run if he’d had the chance. Few athletes are unequivocally undaunted by the bright lights, and neither of these guys is. Quickley in particular, while the most dispensable of the three on paper, has proven that he can take and make the big shot. More than that, these two seem to genuinely love not only being Knicks, but being Knicks together.

There is also a basketball argument to be made for both. Assuming there is a God above and Julius Randle eventually gets moved, New York needs a power forward who can thrive alongside Brunson and (in this scenario) Mitchell. If you buy the shot, which I do, Obi is about as good as you’ll find on the offensive end. As for Quickley, even under Thibs, Brunson and Mitchell would not play 48 minutes a night³. Derrick Rose, assuming he isn’t included in the trade, will be 34 at the start of next season. This team needs Quickley to provide quality depth at the guard spot moving forward.

Grimes, obviously, would be missed, and they would not be able to replicate his production this season. But - and this is a big “but,” but one I quite like⁴ - if Q goes out, there’s a decent chance that Cam stays. Reddish has a long way to go before he’s a consistently helpful player at either end, but he also has a higher ceiling than any of the three players we’ve discussed here. Dealing Grimes would force Thibs to give Cam a chance to thrive in a meaningful role as essentially the only rotation wing on the team besides Barrett. Would it go well? Who knows. But at least they’d figure out what the heck they have in the former 10th overall pick.

Some act like replacing Grimes will be easy. It won’t; teams don’t typically let players like this go. But if you’re a contender or quasi-contender, you can can meaningfully productive shooting and defense for the mid-level exception. It’s funny we’re ending up back at one, but Reggie Bullock is a prime example. As a starter, he’s under-qualified, but as a 7th man on a team with Brunson, Mitchell and Barrett? That’s about where he belongs.

I guess before we finish up, I should probably make a prediction. As of now, I’d say Grimes goes to Utah, Quickley stays, and Obi is a toss up. My best guess is that Leon Rose is fighting hard to keep Toppin in New York. I guess we’ll find out how successful he is soon enough.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. As Ben Ritholtz pointed out a few months ago, if Grimes was 6'7" instead of 6'5", then he’d really be untradeable. He’s a tad too small to guard the biggest wings in the game today.

2. At least if we’re going by high school recruiting rank.

3. RJ Barrett, on the other hand, if they trade Grimes…

4. And I cannot lie.