All In?
At some point, Leon Rose is going to cash in his chips. Is draft night the best opportunity he'll have? Or is Jaden Ivey a risk he can't afford to take? Plus, major news in Utah.
Good morning! Do we have a Monday edition for you…major news out of Utah, plus the prospect review you didn’t know you’ve been waiting for, all right below. Not a full subscriber? With the draft 17 days away and free agency a week after, there’s no better time to change that:
🗣 News & Notes ✍️
🏀 We have our first official seismic shift in Utah.
This is incredibly relevant to the Knicks for a few reasons, with the most direct one coming in the form of current New York associate head coach Johnnie Byrant.
Bryant, you’ll remember, was an assistant in Utah before being hired away by the Knicks two years ago. He reportedly has a great relationship with Donovan Mitchell, and as Jazz reporter Jeremiah Jensen of KSL 5 TV told me on the KFS Pod a few weeks ago, Bryant would likely be in the running for the Jazz job should it open up.
Turns out he’s not only in the running, but if we go by Shams tweet from last night, is literally at the top of the list:
What would that mean New York’s alleged pursuit of Donovan Mitchell?
We’ve heard in the past that the Knicks were foolish for ever believing that a coach could convince a player to come to New York, and history says that sentiment has been proven correct. At the same time, if Bryant were to go back to Utah, it would be one less draw for Mitchell to come to New York, not to mention the loss of what we’ve been led to believe is the handpicked successor to Tom Thibodeau.
(If you don’t think that Bryant is next in line here, recall that while Payne and Woodson have been allowed to leave for college head coaching position, when Bryant’s name came up in connection to the Utah Utes' job, he took himself out of the running almost immediately. Clearly he thought the Knicks were worth hanging around for a little longer.)
Based on the subsequent Woj report, stating that Mitchell was “surprised and disappointed” Snyder left and that the All-Star guard is “unsettled, unnerved and wondering what it means for the franchise's future," you know Donovan plays an integral part in all of this. Or, as Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen put it:
There is another way to look at this though: What does Snyder know that we don’t?
The reporting here makes it sound like Mitchell had nothing to do with Snyder’s decision, and in the technical sense, maybe he didn’t. But what does it say about Mitchell’s level of commitment to the organization that Snyder is stepping down when only one other NBA head coaching job - the Hornets, who are reportedly closing in on Kenny Atkinson - is available? What other reason would there be to leave now unless he thought there was a pretty good chance that next season was going to get ugly, and fast? Also, why did he wait so long to make this decision? Mitchell said in his final post-game presser that he’d re-assess his commitment to the Jazz organization in a few weeks. Perhaps he’s made up his mind, and Snyder caught wind of it.
Mitchell’s camp is extremely savvy. Onlookers questioned whether he’d have what it took to ruffle feathers in order to get his way out of Utah, and whether he’d be willing to suffer the same public retribution aimed at guys like Anthony Davis and James Harden after they demanded trades and pouted their way out of town. Making it sound like Utah needlessly failed to retain his preferred head coach, and that that ended up being a source of discontent rather than the other way around, would be one hell of a way to put lipstick on the pig.
Or maybe it’s as simple as Larsen implies, and Mitchell just wants to make sure the Jazz seek his input before making their hire1. Then again, wouldn’t they have done that anyway, especially given the reporting about how the organization has kowtowed to him over the last few years2? If this was just about keeping Mitchell happy - presuming, of course, the Jazz still have the ability to do exactly that - wouldn’t they have done everything in their power to keep Snyder3? And if they did everything in their power to keep Snyder and he still walked, I’ll again ask: what does he know that we don’t?
Right now, we have a lot more questions than answers, but if Utah wasn’t already a situation that deserved watching, it certainly is now. If nothing else, who they wind up hiring will go a long way in telling us whether Mitchell is long for the organization.
I’ll go a step further: if Bryant stays in New York, I’m betting Mitchell is a goner. If we presume, as I do, that Mitchell wants Bryant, and that he’ll be Utah’s top choice for that reason, what possible reason could there be for Bryant not to take the job? Would the Jazz really hire someone against Mitchell’s wishes? Bryant staying put would be a sign that he knows what many have theorized, which is that his best chance of coaching Mitchell for the long haul would be to remain right here in New York as the coach in waiting. If he leaves, then all the Mitchell noise probably goes up in smoke.
This is all part of the dance. As for who ends up with what partner once the music stops, that is anyone’s guess at this point.
All In?
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Gotta give it to the Roman philosopher Seneca, man. He was rubbing it in the face of Knicks fans a full two millennia before the draft lottery ever existed.
Opportunity? Oh, we’ve had opportunity. 11 chances in the last 21 years, in fact. That’s the numbers of times the Knicks have owned their own lottery pick with the chance to move up…and haven’t.
Preparation? Well, that’s a different story. There have been a number of years in which New York probably would have been better served going into the season with a roster built for tanking. The only time they did that, they ended up with RJ Barrett. Not a bad outcome.
They also could have made more overt efforts to tank once seasons started and then went awry, although that notion was turned on its head this year as the traditional pro-tank move - playing the kids and resting the vets - wound up being anything but.
Regardless of how they got to pick 11 this time around, here we are yet again, staring at a bunch of prospects who in all likelihood will not satisfy what ails this franchise the most: the lack of an honest-to-goodness, frontline offensive engine that every great NBA team needs.
And yet…
There may still be an opportunity staring the Knicks in the face - one that’s different from merely sitting back and hoping the losses pile up high enough or the ping pong balls bounce a certain way, but an opportunity nonetheless. It’s also an opportunity they’ve prepared for, even if we may not have realized it at first.
In the 27 months since Leon Rose was formally hired to run the organization, every move he’s made - every single one - has been made in furtherance of positioning the organization to land a star. From the rehabilitation of New York’s image to the structure of their contracts to the prioritization of future assets to the emphasis on developing young (and potentially tradable) talent, it’s all been done with one ultimate goal in mind.
Get…THE…guy.
We’ve thought, ever since March of 2020, that this star would come via trade, when one of Rose’s former clients would look at the Knicks and say “I want to go there.” Maybe that still come to pass.
Or maybe the star that was promised isn’t going to come via the means we assumed. That is the opportunity the Knicks have to assess right now, in the form of a 20-year-old guard from Purdue who looks every bit the part of a franchise cornerstone at first glance.
Speaking of glances…
(He’s looking at us, Knicks fans. HE’S LOOKING AT US.)
We’ll get to just how and why that opportunity is at Leon Rose’s doorstep in a bit, but to properly do that, we need to go a bit deeper on the young man who electrified college basketball this season.
I was planning on doing a traditional film-heavy breakdown on Jaden Ivey, but then I thought, why bother? What he is and what he isn’t can be summed up in a few sentences. He is, above all else, a freak athlete who will take a mile if you give him an inch, sometimes bombarding the rim with startling ferocity…
…while other times implementing more of a flair for creativity:
In addition to his bread and butter (0.919 points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler over 173 possessions according to Synergy, good for an “excellent” grade in the 84th percentile), Ivey has shown promise from deep, He’s done enough both off the bounce and on the catch to believe that the “unguardable” label isn’t far off. It would certainly be appropriate if he ever flipped this part of his game from theoretical to actual.
At the same time, he is anything but a complete player.
On defense, Ivey must fine tune his habits and become less of a gambler. As we’ve been reminded of in these playoffs, the best offenses will relentlessly hunt a weak link, and Ivey has a ways to go before he’s an asset, although with his quickness and a wingspan that is allegedly 6’9" or 6'10", he has the tools needed to someday be a force on that end of the court.
On offense, his most insane highlights are almost exclusively the result of straight line drives. This is catnip for mix tapes; not so wonderful when a good defense bears down and locks in on you. Absent an improved handle, he’s not going to be able to achieve anywhere near the same level of proficiency at the next level.
I was also being kind in reference to the shooting earlier. In a half court setting, Ivey made just eight jump shots inside the arc all season, with just one coming outside of 17 feet according to Synergy. His midrange game is nonexistent for all intents and purposes, which puts an awful lot of pressure on his ability to effectively hone a pull up three at the next level. For all the promise he showed there, we’re still talking about someone who shot just under 36 percent from deep last year on middling volume, and his 74.4 percent free throw percentage doesn’t exactly bode well for significant growth in this respect.
Most of all, he must become at least a passable playmaker along the lines of other first options once he gets to the NBA. Simply put, 3.1 assists per game isn’t nearly enough for someone who will have a significant usage rate on any team he’s on. That said, the signs he’s shown are encouraging:
(Kindly ignore the 3.0 turnovers per 36 minutes, please and thank you.)
Any team drafting him has to be banking on his passing to develop above all else. That said, there are successful case studies in the form of Donovan Mitchell (2.7 assists as a Louisville sophomore, 3.7 as a rookie, 5.3 last season), Devin Booker (1.1 assist in 21.5 minutes as a Kentucky freshman, 2.6 as a rookie, 6.8 and 6.5 a night in the two seasons pre-CP3 in Phoenix) and Bradley Beal (2.2 assists at Florida, 2.4 as a rookie, over five a game over the last five years, including 6.6 last season). True optimists might look at Dame Lillard (3.6 assists in 34.3 minutes a night as a Weber State sophomore) or Darius Garland (3.4 per 36 in his lone year at Vandy) and project even higher heights for Ivey after he averaged 3.5 dimes per 36 minutes last season. One step at a time though.
This progression, along with an improved handle/shiftiness and whether the pull-up/step-back game ever becomes a real threat, will determine just how bright Ivey’s star shines at the next level. Check one box, he’s probably an All-Star. Check two or three, and you can use your imagination. Maybe a team like the Thunder at 2 or the Rockets at 3 will buy the higher end of that upside and take him without fielding phone calls.
And who could blame them for taking that chance? While selecting a guard at the top of the draft doesn’t guarantee that they’ll ever end up being an MVP candidate, the likelihood of drafting a guard outside of the top of the draft who becomes a perennial All-NBA guy is essentially zero.
Don’t believe me? Here are the list of guards who have made All-NBA over the last eight years after having been drafted outside of the top seven picks:
Devin Booker: All-NBA 1st Team in 2022; 13th pick in 2015
Kemba Walker: All-NBA 3rd Team in 2019; 9th pick in 2011
DeMar DeRozan: All-NBA 2nd Team in 2018; 9th pick in 2009
Isaiah Thomas: All-NBA 2nd Team in 2017; 60th pick in 2011
Klay Thompson: All-NBA 3rd Team in 2015 & 2016; 11th pick in 2011
Kyle Lowry: All-NBA 3rd Team in 2016; 24th pick in 2006
Outside of Isaiah Thomas, who became the first NBA player since the 50’s to make an All-NBA team measuring under six feet, there isn’t really another “out of nowhere” guy on this list. Kyle Lowry is the next closest to that designation, and it took him three teams and 10 years to get his lone All-NBA nod. Booker will probably make a few more All-NBA teams, but after he fell to 13th, we’ve long since learned our lesson about taking the underperformance of Kentucky guards with a grain of salt.
This hasn’t been the case with forwards and centers, where guys like Giannis, Kawhi, Jokic, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Draymond Green, Pascal Siakam, Rudy Gobert, and Marc Gasol have all made All-NBA teams over the same span of time while being picked 10th or later.
Approaching this discussion from another perspective, how many of the guards who were taken in the top five over the last 15 years and fit Ivey’s general profile (uber-athlete with correctable holes in his game) made the organizations that selected them regret the pick? Here’s the list of comps I came up with:
Jalen Green - 2nd, 2021
Anthony Edwards - 1st, 2020
Ja Morant - 2nd, 2019
De’Aaron Fox - 5th, 2017
John Wall - 1st, 2010
Derrick Rose - 1st, 2008
Russell Westbrook - 4th, 2008
It’s tough to argue that any of these were outright poor picks. Westbrook is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer. Rose was on his way were it not for injuries, and Wall - a five-time All-Star - might have been as well. Fox is arguably the most disappointing player from this group, and he’s still just 24 and is looked at as a neutral value, at worst, on his max contract. Morant was an MVP candidate at 22. Edwards may soon join him. Green was a different player in the second half of last season after looking absolutely lost at the start.
With the exception of Westbrook, who rose up draft boards late in the process, all of these guys were viewed more or less as sure things as they entered their rookie seasons. Ivey isn’t as polished as any of those guys though, and as a result, isn’t quite seen in the same way. That’s part of the reason that consensus currently has him squarely outside of the top three even though none of Chet, Jabari or Paolo profile as a true No. 1 on a great team.
The legitimate questions about Ivey are why the most likely scenario is that he’s not only on the board at four, but that the pick will be available via trade as well. Would that be a bonehead move for Sacramento, given all of the above? Maybe, maybe not. Looking at FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric from last season, the highest “Wins Added” ranking for a guard who wasn’t an elite shooter, defender or passer was Jalen Brunson at 23rd, one spot ahead of Ja Morant in 24th.
The fact is that a guard in Ivey’s general mold hasn’t led a team to conference finals level since Derrick Rose, whose Bulls team showed itself to be pretty darn good even without him.
Speaking of Morant, he’s been the lazy comp for Ivey for a hot minute now, but Jaden is nowhere near the distributor that Ja was coming out of Murray State, where he led the nation by a country mile with 10.0 assists per game. Other comps fall short as well. The lightning fast Dejounte Murray has improved his passing by leaps and bounds, but he was an elite defensive prospect from day one. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, another long, lanky guard, is the size of a wing and averaged 5.5 assists per 36 minutes as a freshman. Donovan Mitchell might actually be the most hopeful comp, as no draft expert figured he’d be able to dominate games on offense running pick and roll after pick and roll. He fell to 13th as a result.
Ivey’s athleticism alone means won’t drop nearly as far, but it bears repeating: Ivey can be had. He isn’t a sure thing, he does require a fair bit of projection, and he might be a bust if the weaker parts of his game don’t continue to develop. All of this is why, unlike the selections that were used on Rose, Wall and Morant, and to a lesser extent Westbrook, Fox, Edwards and Green, the Knicks are going to be able to trade up to grab this one if I had to bet on it. Will it still cost a lot? Oh yes. Like, a lot, a lot. More than you think will be fair.
As I wrote about two years ago, a top-five pick has been traded eight times in the last two decades4, but five of those times it was traded for another pick in the top six, and in none of those trades were there a swap of greater than three spots. The other three trades:
2004: Devin Harris (5th pick), Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner to Washington for Antawn Jamison
2007: Jeff Green (5th pick) to Oklahoma City for Ray Allen and Glen Davis (35th pick)
2019: De’Andre Hunter (4th pick), Jordan Bone (57th pick), a 2023 second and Solomon Hill’s expiring contract for Jaxson Hayes (8th pick), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (17th pick), Didi Louzada (35th pick) and a 2020 top-10 protected first
Sadly none of these are relevant to the Knicks either. They don’t have a Ray Allen-level player on their roster, for one. Also, with all due respect to Devin Harris and De’Andre Hunter, those guys are not viewed in anywhere near the same light as Ivey is now, even with his flaws.
That means if the Knicks want this pick, one of two things is going to need to happen:
They’ll need to rope Portland into the deal, since 4 to 7 wouldn’t be nearly as steep a drop off as 4 to 11, or…
New York is going to need to put a major player and/or multiple future first round picks on the table
Re: the latter, RJ Barrett isn’t going anywhere, and Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin aren’t getting it done. That means multiple future firsts…unless you combine Option 1 and Option 2 and wind up with something like the three-team trade I proposed last week.
Maybe they get lucky and that’ll be an option. Or maybe they won’t, and this really would cost them an arm and a leg.
Either way, this could be that moment. The moment when preparation meets opportunity. The moment when the Knicks, finally, create their own luck. The moment that Leon Rose has been waiting for.
Is Ivey that guy? We’ll find out in 17 days just how lucky the Knicks feel.
🏀
That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter
He spells out the CAA of it all later in the thread, which is worth a look.
Jensen made sure to mention multiple times in our conversation: Mitchell’s happiness is far and away the number one priority in Utah.
Rememeber that he was entering the last year of his contract?
Not counting picks that were conveyed before the draft order was set; i.e, the LaMarcus Aldridge pick that originally belonged to the Knicks.
The key is what will Sacramento want and what are the Knicks willing to give up. If they are in love with Ivey...I'd give up the 11th plus a protected 1st rounder (having some confidence that the Knicks aren't terrible and it doesn't turn into a high pick!)...but which players. I love Quickley, Obi and Grimes...but I think you'd have to sacrifice one of them along with Reddish (hope Sacramento buys into his potential). If Ivey is a stud then I'd say it's worth it. At some point the Knicks need to make a swing for the fences! Having said all that I hope Sacramento takes less!
I would say if we have the opportunity to move up to 4 without giving up much assets then I would do so b/c we need a building block at the point guard position and I am not sold on Brunson enough to put that kind of $$ on him no matter what the connections we have plus I am not sure if Thibs would like a guy like DRussell if the wolves make him available for trade and we make a trade for him. This has been a problem for us forever no matter what band aids we have put in the past. I say move up to #4 to get Ivey if we have the chance or look @ Portland's pick @7 for either Mathurin or Daniels as Daniels could solve our problems as well at the PG position. Mathurin gives us a building block.