Back to Reality

Two tough losses after their 3-game winning streak have the Knicks postseason hopes on life support.

Good morning! The reanimation of the dormant postseason chase was fun while it lasted, huh? After tough losses to the Grizzlies and Nets, New York now has to face the harsh reality that their season will likely be over four weeks from today. How did it all go down? We’ll get get to it below, but first, our usual Monday reminder to upgrade to the full subscription if you haven’t yet:

Weekend Recap

If this were eight, six or even four weeks ago, you’d be tempted to call this weekend a moral victory. One great team, one great player, and two losses by seven points total. New York hasn’t quit, and just as importantly, played well enough to beat most teams, but the Grizzlies aren’t most teams, and Kevin Durant isn’t most players. The young guys continue to show signs of growth and are contributing in meaningful ways. Watching the team, for the most part, has become fun again.

But moral victories are never an easy sell for a team with aspirations of winning, and the Knicks - allegedly - still had eyes on the postseason going into Friday night. Those hopes, baring a miracle, are all but over, with New York 5.0 games behind the Hornets and 5.5 behind the Hawks with just 14 to play. Even a 10-4 finish would require a complete and total collapse by at least one of those teams.

Even if Tom Thibodeau disagrees with the current reality, the arguments about playing vets versus kids seem to be a thing of the past. Due to injuries, the Knicks only have 11 healthy bodies. Ryan Arcidiacono does not seem to be a threat to anyone’s minutes, and while Taj Gibson continues to see spot duty, Jericho Sims has a secure spot in the rotation. A healthy Quentin Grimes, who should be available sometime during the upcoming home stand, makes 10. Derrick Rose does not seem close to returning, and by the time he is, the Knicks may be mathematically eliminated. It seems as if over the final 14 games, youth will be served after all.

Knicks 114, Grizzlies 118

Behind some early Julius Randle three-balls, the Knicks hung with the Grizzlies early, and when Memphis looked on the verge of blowing things open in the second, New York fought hard to keep things close behind RJ Barrett’s best scoring stretch of the weekend. After halftime, the Knicks kept the momentum going and came out with an intensity rarely seen this season, going on a 12-0 run early in the 3rd and outscoring the Grizzlies 40-20 over the first 11 minutes of the quarter.

After New York took a brief 15-point lead against a team that has lost just twice at home in 2022, the game started to turn, and Memphis closed the third with a 6-0 run. The Knicks fourth quarter execution was better than normal (the NBA’s lowest bar, to be clear) but the Grizzlies slowly and surely continued to chip away. They took the lead for good with just over three minutes remaining, and while some late Grizzly misses from the line made things more interesting than they should have been, this one didn’t come down to a final shot.

Knicks 107, Nets 110

Brooklyn picked up right where it left off in the last matchup between these teams, scoring the first 11 points of the game thanks to a blah Knicks offense and a flame-throwing Kevin Durant. New York quickly got their bearings though and looked like the more energized team for most of the remainder of the half. After the lead changed hands a few times to start the third, the Knicks went into a brief malaise and fell behind by nine, with KD scoring or assisting on all but one field goal in the quarter. He was undeniable.

The fourth quarter started with back to back Obi Toppin triples in his return from a five-game absence, and after another Brooklyn push, New York used a 9-0 run to take the lead on an RJ drive and finish - the second of two straight Barrett buckets:

But just when we thought the Knicks had finally gotten over their late-game issues, New York could muster just one more field goal the rest of the way. Julius, RJ and Evan Fournier all went for over 20, but all also had a hand in the loss. After his make, Barrett traveled and then missed his next attempt, which was followed by Randle getting his pocket picked on a post up, and concluded with an Evan Fournier turnover. The more things change…

RJ Barrett Check in

On the bright side, Barrett continues to rack up points in these games, putting up 23 against Memphis before netting 24 against Brooklyn. As shown in the clips above, he is not frightened of the big moment, and has come through in the clutch as much as if not more than anyone else on this team.

This makes it 11 times in 13 outings he’s scored at least 20, averaging an even 26 in that time while leading the league in minutes per game. On the other end, RJ continues to get the defensive assignment on the opposing team’s best player, and while we’d politely call the results a mixed bag, there aren’t many players in the NBA who can try to cover Ja Morant one night and Kevin Durant two days later.

He also reminded us that he’s the best lob thrower on the team:

(although Jericho Sims sure does make this look easy. More on him in a bit.)

Because of his age and relatively recent elevation to being the co-engine for New York’s offense, the good means so much more for RJ than the bad at this point. He continues to adjust to being the guy for his team, and for all but the very best, that adjustment is often messy.

The messiness: 46 shots to get those 47 points over the weekend, with just five assists (and five turnovers). That the ball just wasn’t dropping is fine - RJ drives are almost always good offense for the Knicks given their bevy of glass munchers, as discussed last week - but the next level for him involves consistently good decision-making and making life easier for his teammates even when it may not necessarily be his night.

For example, on this possession late in the Memphis game, Barrett is such a load that Brandon Clarke instinctually digs into the paint when he drives the lane:

The play here is to kick it out to Immanuel Quickley, who had hit a three to give the Knicks the lead less than three minutes earlier. Instead, Barrett challenges Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jaren Jackson Jr. The resulting block and fast break took the lead the three, and New York would never get any closer.

It bears repeating that Barrett is 21, and unlike 27-year-old Julius Randle, there’s ample reason to believe he’ll continue to grow into a player who can be relied on in tight, late-game situations. To that end, possessions like the above, as painful as they are in the moment, are vital to that development. For all of the organization’s faults, they should be given credit for engendering that (hopeful) growth.

💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫

⭐️ Evan Fournier: In giving Fournier this star by a hair¹ over RJ, I’m going to shower him with the faintest praise imaginable: when he scores efficiently, he is - barely - a helpful player for the Knicks in his current role.

Fournier played one of his better offensive games on Sunday, going 9-of-13 from the field for 25 points while hitting several high degree of difficulty 3-pointers both early and late to rescue possessions that were going nowhere. Without his shot-making, the Knicks are probably not in this game late. His playmaking was also as good as we’ve seen, as he tied a season high with five assists.

(His passing proficiency was almost unnerving yesterday. Like, where has this been all season?

Better late than never, I suppose.)

Throw in another 12 points (on eight shots) and four more dimes on Friday night, and it’s tough to argue that he had anything other than a good weekend.

And yet, Fournier is the takeout Chinese food of the NBA: even when it’s pretty good and you eat a lot of it, you’re rarely left fully satisfied. The most glaring negative here was his turnover with time winding down and his team down by one:

The play design here was for Fournier to draw the double, which he did, and then kick it down to Mitch for an open dunk.

The problem is that Fournier rushed a tough jump pass instead of taking his time with the possession. Did it make a difference? KD was already coming off of Julius Randle to help on Mitch, and if Evan is able to get the ball to Randle, that probably results in more help, and then someone else could have been open behind the arc. We never got close to that string of dominoes though, as the ball got stolen, and Brooklyn won it on free throws.

It wasn’t just one play though. It never is.

I’ve watched this play a half dozen times, and I still don’t know how Fournier literally watches the ball bounce off the floor in front of him before Bruce Brown grabs the free gift. Making matters worse, he gives up baseline to Brown and then completely loses contact with his man, who draws the help and then dishes for an easy two.

In Fournier’s defense, aside from Alec Burks, he is the most glaring example of someone playing the wrong role on this team. He is perhaps the perfect sixth man for the way the game is played today, and whether it’s here or elsewhere, whenever he does start to contribute to winning basketball, it will almost certainly be in that capacity.

To that end, assuming the front office doesn’t find a workable trade for him this summer, I’d love it if Fournier gets moved to the bench next year and Quentin Grimes (the definition of someone who doesn’t need to shoot well to play well) takes his spot in the starting five. Contracts matter in the NBA, and it takes a strong organizational culture to bench a guy making $18 million for someone making about a tenth as much, but it would certainly make for a less frustrating experience - both for fans, and I’d imagine, Fournier himself.

⭐️ ⭐️ Jericho Sims / Mitchell Robinson: I had to split the baby here, because for as good as Mitch was on Friday night - 10 points, 16 boards (eight offensive), four blocks, three steals, and a career high four assists, all in the first quarter - Jericho Sims may have topped him yesterday.

Let’s start with Mitch. It is a broken record at this point: when he is on, he looks the part of a top-10 center - a rim protecting, offensive rebounding force that simply can’t be stopped from executing on his specialties. He blocked Ja Morant twice on Friday night - never an easy task - before doing the impossible yesterday and swatting an attempt from perhaps the most un-blockable jump shooter in NBA history:

Better yet, he’s been hustling his ass off, getting up the court with gusto and leaving behind the early season bugaboos that contributed to New York’s overall inconsistency. He dove on the floor for a ball in the Grizzlies game, and in an even more encouraging sign, had an instantaneous give and go that evinced a level of quick decision-making we haven’t often seen.

For all of those reasons, someone - perhaps the Knicks, perhaps the Knicks in a sign and trade, or perhaps another team with cash to spend² - is going to give Mitchell Robinson a massive raise this summer. The specifics of that deal will matter a lot (between three guaranteed years for $36 million and four for $70 mil is about where I have his range) but for New York, the emergence of Jericho Sims will now factor prominently into that conversation.

Sims played nearly the entire fourth quarter over Mitch yesterday, and with good reason. He outplayed his counterpart to a noticeable degree, and while his being a plus-20 in the game had a lot to do with being on the court for all of Brooklyn’s non-KD minutes, they weren’t a complete illusion. He had 10 boards in 26 minutes to go with six points and a couple assists, and showed his versatility on a key late game possession when the Knicks needed a stop:

It’s not easy to fly into a hard double 40 feet from the hoop and then get back to box out your man after the ensuing shot attempt, but Sims is damn good at boxing out and owning the defensive glass. His 7.7 defensive rebounds per 36 are a bit higher than Robinson’s 6.8, and second best among rookies who have played at least 200 minutes.

Is it possible to keep both? Of course, but New York will have to ask itself some tough questions about the allocation of their resources as they make that decision. In the meantime, it’s great to see both of these guys playing well.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Julius Randle: Let’s chalk up Randle’s first two post-All-Star games to his usual slow starts after a break. Even with them on his ledger, over his last 16 games, he’s averaging 26.7 points, 10.0 boards, 5.4 assists and a manageable 3.5 turnovers. He is fifth in the league in made free throws since January 5.

The big difference is his 3-point shooting, which is up to 36 percent in this stretch, up from 30 percent in the previous 50 games. He is taking and making them at the biggest of moments.

His weekend lines (36, 12 & 6 on Friday; 26, 4 & 4 yesterday) both came with solid efficiency. There are still a few too many tough long two’s for anyone’s liking and a handful of defensive possessions every night that make you wince, but overall, this is a version of Julius Randle everyone can live with.

The question now - assuming this turnaround continues, and Randle plays well through the rest of the season, or whenever he’s shut down - is what happens next. Does the organization look past whatever was wrong with him to start the season? Do they think Randle and RJ Barrett can co-exist as a partnership moving forward? Or do they use his improved play as an opportunity to strike while the iron is hot and see if anyone is willing to pay a real price for his services this summer?

Only 14 games to go until we find out.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. One of the few he has remaining.

2. Marc Stein had a report over the weekend that the Pistons will be hot and heavy for Mitch come the summer.