Catch a Spida?

Let's talk about Donovan.

Good afternoon, and Happy July 4 weekend everyone! You might ask, “why am I getting a newsletter late on Saturday afternoon? Shouldn’t you be off at a barbecue or something?”

The answer, obviously, is yes, but thanks to the ‘Rona infecting everyone else in my apartment, I’m spending my 4th of July weekend tucked in my oldest daughter’s bedroom, or as it has now become known in our household, “Sanctuary.”

I’m also happy I’m getting to write to you now, as a significant development happened in the NBA yesterday with wide-ranging implications, including (possibly) on our beloved Knicks. The Jazz traded Rudy Gobert to Minnesota for the haul of hauls, thus signaling to the league that a teardown may be imminent. Danny Ainge can say whatever he wants, but we know it’s coming. Donovan Mitchell will be on the move, probably sooner than we think.

As such, a debate has already started within the fan base over the wisdom of dealing for Utah’s star guard - a debate that is also going on internally within the Knicks. Ian Begley reported yesterday that “People in touch with the Knicks prior to the draft said the club was wary of trading the combination of picks and players that it would take to land a player like Mitchell. The thinking, according to people in touch with the club at the time, was that there wouldn’t be enough left on the roster to field a contending team.”

I’ve heard the same, for what it’s worth, although my understanding is that “wary” is not “won’t,” and that reasonable minds within New York’s decision-making body may disagree on the wisdom of making a strong push for Mitchell.

Hence, this newsletter, which I figured it’s better to get out before more news breaks. This will take the place of the normal Monday newsletter, and we’ll pick up again on Tuesday with a full recap of all of the events that have taken place since Friday morning, including full analysis of the Mitchell Robinson extension (hopefully with some contract details to discuss).

🕷Catch a Spida? 🕸

Donovan Mitchell is a star.

An imperfect star, but a star nonetheless. If you go by All-NBA voting - not a perfect barometer, but not inaccurate either - he is something like the 20th best player in basketball, and probably a little higher when you consider how valuable the skill sets of perimeter players are in the game today.

Which brings us to why Mitchell is a star, and what the difference is between him and Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett, two very good players who no one thinks can spearhead a contending offense. The reason can be boiled down to three numbers: 23, 25 and 147. The first two numbers are how many pull-up threes Barrett and Brunson hit last season, respectively. The latter is how many Mitchell nailed, which ranked fourth in the league behind Trae Young, Luka Doncic and Steph Curry - aka, half of the All-NBA guards from last season - and one spot above Jayson Tatum, an All-NBA 1st team forward¹.

It’s also not a coincidence that three of these guys were the best players on a conference finalist, as the ability to force a defense respect your off-the-dribble gravity behind the arc is the single most important weapon in the NBA today. There are paths to stardom for perimeter players who don’t possess this ability, but they are becoming rarer and rarer².

A star requires more than this ability, of course - the has to maintain a high usage, overall efficiency, the threat of getting to and finishing at the rim, getting to the line, a respectable mid-range game, and making plays for others when they present themselves - but Mitchell checks all of these boxes as well, in full or at least in part. Save for a bit of over-reliance on his jumper and not being nearly the passer that those All-NBA guards are³, he doesn’t really have a weak spot in his offensive arsenal.

For all of these reasons, the notion that the Knicks don’t need a star or that Mitchell isn’t the right star for them is poppycock. Mitchell, on the right team with the proper supporting pieces, can arguably be the best offensive player on a championship squad. Had he and Mike Conley not suffered injuries during the 2021 postseason, it’s entirely possible we’d view the Jazz in a different light and I wouldn’t be writing this very newsletter.

And yet here I am, because this Jazz team did run its course and it is clear that sooner rather than later, Mitchell is going to have a new home. Based on the package Utah just received from Minnesota - one that prioritized future draft equity from a historically bad team - it is also clear that the Knicks have the ability to trade for Mitchell if they so choose. One could even argue that Ainge is praying the Knicks get involved in this sweepstakes, at least considering the obvious alternatives⁴:

• Miami, a historically well-run organization that has rarely bottomed out, thus lessening the theoretical value of any pick package they can offer. They’re also pick encumbered, and the player they have to make up the difference - Tyler Herro - is essentially a worse version of Mitchell who is probably going to require a $25 million annual extension. It’s entirely possible Herro’s ideal NBA role is the one the Heat are using him in right now: 6th man. Not exactly an ideal building block.

• Brooklyn / Phoenix, in what would be a three-team deal sending KD to the Suns and Mitchell to the Nets. The Jazz, presumably, would wind up with some picks from Phoenix (I’m sure Brooklyn would wind up with some as well) and one or two of the Ayton/Mikal/Cam Johnson segment of the transaction (I’m assuming they split this part with the Nets too). That’s pretty good, and maybe those distant Suns picks will have some real value…but as much value as future Knicks’ picks? Most would disagree⁵.

That last bit is part of what makes this such a polarizing topic for fans, and why, almost regardless of whether New York trades for Mitchell or not, the Knicks are going to get clowned:

• Knicks don’t trade for Mitchell: “LOL Knicks! Leon Rose stockpiled all those picks, and when the moment finally came to put them to good use - for a guy they desperately need and wants to be in New York, no less - they can’t get a deal done. The Knicks are a joke and always will be! Pass the salsa.”

• Knicks trade for Mitchell: “LOL Knicks! Look at the haul they gave up just to top out as a four seed that might make the second round. They have nothing left to make the team any better. Watch Mitchell get sick of this shit, leave in three years, and Ainge is left sitting on a gold mine with those future picks. Is there any salsa left?”

Let’s stick with scenario two for a moment. Why would this perception exist if Mitchell is so good?

There are a few obvious answers. For one, Brunson and Mitchell would be the smallest championship backcourt since Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars⁶, and Joe D made five All-Defense teams. This also isn’t the same sport as it was 35 years ago. Perimeter defense is paramount to postseason success, and while the Jazz came close with a Mitchell / Conley backcourt, they had a generationally impactful defensive presence guarding the rim.

Mitchell Robinson has his moments, but Rudy Gobert he ain’t. No one is. Even so, I’m bullish on a Mitchell / Brunson backcourt being able to hold their own, provided some caveats. It would start with Mitchell giving a shit like he did at Louisville, when defense was one of his calling cards coming into the draft. Little guys - Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry, to name two - are capable of defending at a high level. Even Brunson, while not a good defender, isn’t a major liability either. There’s also a world where they’re backed up by two high level, big defensive forward.s RJ Barrett might be one. The other probably isn’t on this roster, although the theoretical 90th percentile Cam Reddish outcome probably qualifies.

But this gets us to the second major issue, which is that on paper at least, the Knicks would still be a star away, and that second star would seem to have to be a big, shot-creating wing. Unsurprisingly, these guys don’t become available very often. It’s why Shaedon Sharpe, a walking mystery box, just got picked 7th overall.

Aside from finding one, there’s the other issue of having enough left over after a possible Mitchell trade to be able to get one…or, I suppose, looking at the possibility of signing one in free agency. Neither would appear likely. Assuming all of New York’s best picks (their 2025, 2027 and 2029 firsts, maybe with minimal protections in the last year, plus swaps in 2026 and 2028) go out in the Mitchell deal, they’d have to rely upon significant internal growth from one of the young players so that player could serve as the centerpiece of the next big trade…and that’s assuming one or more of those young players don’t also go out in a deal with the Jazz.

As for free agency, there’s a path for New York to get to max space in 2023, but the market is thin for players of this ilk. Andrew Wiggins, who by all accounts maintains a good relationship with Tom Thibodeau and is RJ Barrett’s running mate on Team Canada, is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, but would he really leave Golden State? The Warriors print money and surely want to keep him, but they also have Jonathan Kuminga on a rookie deal waiting in the wings, and a Wiggins extension would further increase the largest tax bill in NBA history.

So that’s one idea, but Wiggins also isn’t really the ideal second star they need. The following summer, Jaylen Brown (who is rumored to want to test the market) and Pascal Siakam are unrestricted, but again, do we think either one is leaving a primo situation to come to New York? The Knicks also aren’t projected to have any money to spend in 2024 if they trade for Mitchell and assuming the cap holds for Obi and IQ are still on the books⁷.

SNY @SNYtv

Donovan Mitchell is at Citi Field today 👀

All in all, it’s safe to say that the Mitchell path is littered with landmines…which must mean that the non-Mitchell path is the way to go, right? Well if they don’t trade for Mitchell, the Knicks get to keep all of their picks and young players, so that’s good. On the flip side, they’d still have to come across a star somehow (and if the above diatribe is to be believed, a second star on top of the first one).

Might they be able to? Sure. Looking at their prospects for next season, regardless of whether they move on from some combination of Randle, Fournier and Cam between now and opening night, we’re probably looking at a team that tops out as a play-in participant and bottoms out at, well…bad. There’s always a chance they could draft a star next summer.

But even if things go horribly, horribly wrong, there will be significant competition in Tankapalooza 2023. San Antonio, Orlando, Houston, OKC and Indiana all figure to have other priorities besides winning games, and another team or two that suffers some bad luck is likely to join the fray.

And just like that, we’re back to hoping they nail a pick that doesn’t usually produce a star or hoping that one of the kids already here pops…which is the same hope as they’d have if they traded Mitchell. Unlike in the Mitchell trade scenario though, without Donovan, they’d be less appealing to the next star that gets wandering eyes. Aren’t the odds of success better with Mitchell, some remaining draft equity, and most of your high upside young players still on the roster to package together for that next guy?

Here’s the point: neither of these paths has anything close to a high likelihood of success⁸. There are arguments for and there are arguments against both, but at the end of the day, the Knicks are coming at this from a standpoint that contains one major deficit: they have not drafted a no-doubt-about-it star player themselves (or if they have, cough RJ cough, it isn’t apparent yet. See, Exhibit A: Barrett not joining Zion, Ja and Garand in getting a max extension).

Every team that was in the eventual playoff field last season drafted at least one star on their current roster with the exception of Chicago and Brooklyn. You can toss the Lakers and Clippers into that mix as well if you like, as injuries submarined their seasons and we’re just two years removed from LA winning it all without a homegrown star. Even so, it is nearly impossible to see a similar scenario unfolding to the ones that brought those LA teams or the Nets together. As for Chicago, good job by them getting LaVine on the cheap before he really popped. And yet, what does their ceiling appear to be?

For that reason (and I say this with hesitation, because boy oh boy would I talk myself into a Mitchell-led Knicks team in the 2022-23 season and fast), I’m on the side of bypassing a Mitchell trade, at least for now, given the likely cost. The non-Mitchell path doesn’t have an obvious upside in the immediate future, but I’m old enough to remember 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2016. There is literally nothing more depressing in sports than sucking absolute ass and knowing there is zero chance of a pot of gold at the end of the shit-colored rainbow. That’s where we’d be if a Mitchell trade happened and things didn’t work out.

That being said, I’m rooting hard for Miami to end up with Kevin Durant. If they do, there is no obvious Mitchell team on the board, and the Knicks can maybe, just maybe, negotiate from a position other than abject desperation. They also wouldn’t have to be in any rush, and best case scenario, the Jazz hold onto Mitchell for the upcoming season.

Why would that be good? For one, he’d get a year closer to free agency, and Utah’s leverage would decrease. Second, the Knicks’ young assets would have a chance to appreciate. Who knows…maybe RJ makes “the leap” and we can stop talking about him as a theoretical All-Star and instead as an actual one. Maybe Randle gets dealt and Obi looks like a stud in a bigger role. Maybe Cam actually sticks around and becomes the guy we’ve been promised. All of these are unlikely, but one? Who knows? Lastly, New York 2023 draft pick would increase in value without Mitchell on the team. That could wind up being a significant trade chip, or maybe they just use it on a guy they love. There’s good reason to believe next summer becomes the right summer to go all in.

Or maybe they won’t have that choice, and it comes down to trading for Mitchell now or not trading for him at all. If that’s the case, then this truly will be the week that defines Leon Rose’s tenure as Knicks President. A man brought here for his connections will be judged on his decision-making, with an impossible choice in front of him.

Because when does it ever work out the way we want it to? We’re Knicks fans, after all.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. Not to belabor the point, but his accuracy on these looks - 35.6 percent - was a hair below Doncic at 35.8 percent and not far off from Trae (37.0 percent) and Steph (37.4). It is not a stretch to say that Mitchell has firmly established himself as one of the five best pull-up shooters in basketball along with these three and a healthy Dame.

2. Jimmy Butler has certainly taken one of those paths, and we hope RJ follows in his footsteps, but he has a ways to go to get there.

3. The passing part can’t be overstated. That’s why Steph, Trae and Luka are three of the five or six best offensive players in the sport, whereas Mitchell falls somewhere in the 10 to 15 range.

4. It’s certainly possible a dark horse enters the chat here, but given how close Mitchell is to free agency - three years, which is nothing nowadays - I have my doubts that any other team would give up a massive package for him, especially considering it seems obvious he’d like to end up in Miami or New York eventually.

5. One other note: Brooklyn would need to send Ben Simmons out in this trade because the CBA prohibits teams from having multiple designated vets on their roster via trade

6. S/o KFS Patron Mensa

7. There are other wing players who can hit free agency in the next two years, but no one expects Kawhi, Paul George or Khris Middleton to go anywhere. Although there is also that LeBron guy*…

*(kidding)**

**((not kidding))

8. This may be the most “duh” thing I’ve ever written. One team wins every year. One. No path that any team takes has what would be defined as a “high” likelihood of success in an other context.