Go Time

The Knicks have laid their intentions bare. Now it's time to see if they can pull it off.

Good morning, and welcome to free agency week! Right now appears to be a calm before the storm. A few names are flying around, and fans everywhere are wondering what the Knicks might have up their sleeves. I’ll spend some time later in the week discussing those other options and why the Knicks will (or more likely, won’t) be in play, but for today, we’re dealing exclusively with the man of the hour: Jalen Brunson. Don’t forget, if you’re not a full subscriber and want to get all the week’s events sent directly to your inbox with full analysis and opinion, you can change that right now:

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Before we get to the big topic of the week, one more word on the draft: Brian Windhorst confirmed on his podcast what many suspected, which is that the Knicks were heavily exploring trade-down options in the week leading up to the draft, going so far as to call teams below them in the first round and seeing what deals could be put together. Based on the pod, it sounds like they wound up being able to play the Thunder and Cavs off of each other, as both had eyes for Ousmane Dieng.

🏀 One more non-Brunson note: according to Jake Fischer, talks between the Hawks and Spurs regarding a Dejounte Murray trade continue to progress. It sounds like there’s interest on both sides in getting something done.

🏀 Now for the main course: on the heels of New York clearing Kemba Walker’s contract from their books on Thursday night, thereby getting very close to being able to make a significant offer to Jalen Brunson in free agency, Marc Stein dropped a newsletter detailing just how real that pursuit has become.

Quoting “a source close to the process,” Stein said the threat of Brunson going to the Knicks is “very, very, very real.” According to Stein, New York’s four-year offer is expected to be “in the $100 million range,” which is in line with what Jake Fischer reported after the draft when he said that people around the league “are preparing for his offer to end up being for $110 [million].”

Stein added that when the season ended, the Mavs thought Brunson could be retained on a deal closer to $85-88 million in total value. Aside from the money, Stein notes “a growing belief among some close to the situation” that Brunson is “enticed by the opportunity to become New York's unquestioned lead guard on top of strong family ties” and that he “covets the new challenge and broadened responsibility with the Knicks.”

Stein concluded by noting that it is “not yet known how far beyond New York’s projected $100 million total Dallas is willing to go to try to keep Brunson.” There has been persistent talk of a walkaway number that the Mavs would be unwilling to match, and I heard from one source close to the situation who posited that walkaway figure to be the $25 million figure being floated as Brunson’s new annual salary in New York.

At the moment, the Knicks still don’t have the ability to offer that much money. Can they get there? And are there multiple pathways to getting it done? Let’s explore…

Getting Further Under the Cap

Given their current cap situation, assuming Taj Gibson is waived and Mitchell Robinson’s cap hold is retained, New York’s best offer would top out at four years and $70 million. Even if they relinquish Robinson’s hold from the books, it only gets them another $7 million or so in spending cash.

In other words, there is either another move coming or they’d need to engage in a sign and trade. Regarding option one, here are the three most likely moves I see on the table:

• Trade Cam Reddish into another team’s cap space, maybe getting a small asset: This would get them to an offer of four years and just under $96 million for Brunson. If they also unloaded Miles McBride in the deal or in a separate deal, it could get them over the $100 million threshold, but just barely.

• Trade Alec Burks into another team’s cap space, possibly with a draft asset attached, or possibly getting a small asset in the process:

  This gets them up to four years and $113.5 million for Brunson. You could tell me Burks gets them a pick or that he’ll cost them a pick. I’d believe either.

• Trade Nerlens Noel into another team’s cap space, almost certainly with a draft asset attached: This gets them up to four years and $110 million.

I think these are the most likely options because at the moment, there are no obvious rotation spots for any of the above players. Noel’s injury issues along with Mitch’s anticipated re-signing and Jericho Sims’ emergence leaves him as the odd center out. Burks is clearly a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, but assuming the franchise is committed to the continued development of Quentin Grimes and assumes Rose has more left in the tank, there is no spot left for Burks.

And then there is Reddish, who the Knicks are quite clearly ready to move on from a mere six months after dealing for him. If you’re wondering why Leon Rose would contemplate dealing Cam so soon after he got here, here’s a possible rationale: the pick used to get him is already a sunk cost. If the only obvious path to Cam earning rotation minutes involves moving on from both Derrick Rose and Alec Burks, might it make more sense to avoid investing another first rounder to excise Noel, and instead just trade Reddish before his value craters any further?

If you’re in the camp that believes dealing Cam to make room for Brunson is a fireable offense on behalf Leon Rose and the entire front office, I’m certainly not going to attempt to be the voice of reason. As I wrote on Thursday, the entire Reddish experience has revealed signs of miscommunication if not outright dysfunction within their decision-making framework. That being said, there’s a reason it took the Hawks six months to find anyone willing to give them a first rounder for the former 10th overall pick. There is some logic to getting out now before the value gets any lower.

Of course by this reasoning, moving on from Burks makes more sense than dealing either Reddish or Noel, but that’s complicated by his recent injury news. Assuming some team is still willing to take him on for nothing, that might be the best course of action. Then again, it still leaves Noel and Reddish on the roster without an obvious rotation spot.

My guess: they move on from Noel and then hold out on moving Burks and Cam until they get a deal they like, perhaps in a few days, or perhaps longer. I just don’t see a world where Noel is on this team come October.

Of course, there is one other possible option to getting Brunson in the door

Getting Brunson via Sign & Trade

Before we get to the different sign & trade possibilities that exist for the Knicks, I want to touch on a recent article by ESPN’s Zach Lowe¹ about the newly crowned champion Golden State Warriors. The piece, which dropped during the Finals, detailed a pivotal decision the Warriors had to make with the clock ticking on Kevin Durant’s time with the franchise.

The decision was simple. With Kevin Durant having officially made his intentions known that he just wanted to hoop and chill in Brooklyn, Golden State could either:

• Simply let him walk to the Nets for nothing, and move forward with their full pre-KD core mostly intact and make another run at the title that way, or…

• Rejigger and reload by executing a double sign & trade in which they’d be acquiring D’Angelo Russell on a new max deal. This move would require them to not only shed the contract of 2015 Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, but give up multiple protected first round picks in the process - one to entice the Grizzlies to take on Iggy, and another to send to Brooklyn as the cost of doing business

Ultimately, they decided on the latter, not because they wanted to, but because they felt they needed to. I bring this up because I believe that the Mavs may be in the same boat.

But first, back to Golden State: if Durant left for nothing, the Warriors wouldn’t be able to replace him with anything close to a comparable talent because they were already so far over the cap. It didn’t matter to the Warriors that Russell “might prove an awkward fit alongside Curry and within the Warriors' motion offense,” as Lowe noted in the piece. It was never about that. Lowe writes:

The safer route might have been letting Durant walk; keeping Iguodala and both first-round picks that went out; and filling out the roster with the midlevel exception. Golden State examined that path and asked one hard question, sources say: How does it get us an impact player who might be ready to help Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green soon?

Russell might not have been that player, but he was 23 and rising. With Thompson out, the Warriors needed a veteran to soak up minutes. Minnesota's interest in Russell would not dry up. Golden State believed the Knicks might have interest too, sources say.

We know what eventually happened. Russell came, Steph got hurt, the Warriors stunk, and they dealt D-Lo (thankfully, for New York’s sake) to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins. Less than two years later, they’re raising their fourth trophy in eight years. Safe to say things worked out.

I’m certainly not going to pretend that the situation Dallas may find itself in a few days from now is perfectly analogous to the one that the Warriors did back in 2019. For one, they had already won three championships, which is the sort of thing that gives you more than a bit of leeway in making bold decisions as an organization.

Perhaps more importantly, from a cap / asset acquisition perspective, they’re also in a very different place than the Warriors were three years ago. Unlike Golden State, whose only sizable salaries were those of their core three players, none of whom they intended on moving, the Mavs have a ton of fungible salaries they can toss into a deal or deals for star players.

Now as you can see, most of that isn’t particularly good money, but I bet they believe in their ability to flip the THJ’s and Bertans of the world into something better, as they did by turning KP in Spencer Dinwiddie in February. This is especially true with all of their own future firsts at their disposal, which will be the case after (barring something crazy) their 2023 first conveys to New York less than a year from now.

And then there is the most obvious difference between the two situations: while they may have (correctly) had concerns about the fit, D’Angelo Russell in 2019 was a solid asset. He had just turned 23 years old and was coming off an All-Star appearance, albeit as a replacement in a weak East. Russell could also shoot, meaning he was an easy (if soon to be expensive) fit on most teams as a threat without the ball in his hands. Then again, they didn’t even have to worry about a future trade market for D-Lo because there was at least one team and possibly two who were already hot on his tail². That doesn’t appear to be the case with anything the Knicks could offer in a sign & trade.

But this is where we get into the major similarity between the Mavs now, should Brunson decide he wants to come to New York, and Golden State then: beggars can’t be choosers.

Thanks to the Kemba Walker trade on Thursday night, the Knicks are now clearly in the driver’s seat on any Brunson negotiations. Perhaps he wants to remain in Dallas, in which case I’m sorry for wasting your time on this fine Monday morning, but if he wants to come here, New York is a Nerlens Noel salary dump away from being able to offer Rick’s son a four-year contract worth just north of $110 million. Replace Noel with Burks and the number goes up to $113 million. Replace Burks with Rose (which, again, I find unlikely) and you’re at Brunson’s max of $131.1 million. It’s that simple.

Dallas is smart enough to know that New York isn’t fucking around here. Even if it costs the Knicks another first rounder in addition to the one they paid on Thursday night, Leon Rose is in for a penny, in for a pound. As a result, like the Warriors did two years ago, they too have two choices: Let Brunson walk to New York for nothing, or engage the Knicks in sign & trade talks.

Two more related notes before I go through the possible deals:

• As best as I can tell from my reading of Larry Coon’s masterful CBA bible, the Knicks don’t really have to worry about matching incoming salary, because as long as the returning money (Brunson, on his new pact) doesn’t take them over the $122 million salary cap, the deal is legal under the CBA, assuming the money matched on Dallas’ end. Coon writes, “Teams under the salary cap may make trades as they please, as long as they don't finish more than $100,000 above the salary cap following any trade.” Putting this theory into practice, if we assume Brunson’s new deal starts at $25 million and the Knicks are only $16.3 million under the cap (the current projected number), that would mean that they could send out $8.7 million and have the trade be legal. That’s because they’d finish this simultaneous transaction dead even with the salary cap³. I will just add that Coon’s CBA bible is not the actual CBA, and there have been instances where minute details get lost in translation. That being said, I have no reason to believe this isn’t legal.

• The Knicks still don’t have to operate as an under the cap team. The Walker deal hasn’t been executed yet, and even if they waive Taj, they can keep his cap hold on the books⁴. Why would the Knicks ever want to do this? Simple: if Dallas relents and agrees to a sign and trade that appeases the Knicks and works under the cap for both teams even if the Knicks stay over the cap, New York gets to retain its full midlevel exception of $10.3 million. I don’t foresee this though, as it’s more likely the Knicks deal away a current vet, either in this Dallas deal or somewhere else, to create a comparable traded player exception.

With that out of the way, here are the possible Brunson sign and trades I came up with. Huge hat tip to Mavs Money Ball, who penned a similar piece on Monday morning and pointed out something I completely forgot to consider, which is that because the Mavs are a taxpaying team, it slightly alters the money in some of these deals⁵, which I’ve amended from the 5am edition of the newsletter to reflect those changes

• Cam Reddish and Alec Burks: The money works as long as Brunson’s new deal starts at at least $25.5 million, which shouldn’t be an issue. The Mavs pick up two rotation players here, including one with upside in Reddish⁶. This one would come down to what Dallas sends New York for their trouble. The Knicks can credibly go to Dallas and say that if you don’t give us something for these players, we’ll just send them elsewhere instead, maybe pick up an asset or two, open up cap space, and you get nothing. What would New York be able to get back from the Mavs in this scenario? I hesitate to say a future first because Dallas likely wants to retain its ability to put together a massive pick package for a star. At the same time, will the Knicks really get excited over, say, the Mavs lifting the top-10 protections on next year’s draft pick? Or some future seconds? Swap rights in a distant draft? We’ll have to see.

• Evan Fournier: This works under the cap in two ways: if Brunson’s salary next year is at least $28.8 million⁷, or if it the Mavs send out Ntilikina along with Brunson and Brunson’s new deal starts at $25 million or more. You could argue that Fournier is a perfect fit on Dallas. Imagine, for instance, those same side actions Fournier and Randle ran together, except instead of Julius, it’s Luka with the ball. On the downside, he might be a little duplicative with Tim Hardaway Jr, but it’s also easy to see a Mavs team with Fournier sporting the NBA’s best offense next season. For the Knicks, this would be a way to unload a contract that hasn’t aged well, although on the court, New York’s offense would undoubtedly suffer. It gets lost in the shuffle of last season’s frustrations, but no NBA player hit more threes than Evan after the calendar flipped to 2022. That he did it at a 40 percent clip despite a ton of tough attempts speaks to just how good he was. On the flip side, swapping Fournier for Grimes in the starting five would help the Knicks get back to their defensive ethos while also fostering the youth movement, not only by opening a starting spot for Grimes but potentially a rotation spot for Cam Reddish as well. Because of the uncertainty here, I have no idea what the Knicks would ask for or settle for to make this deal.

• Derrick Rose, straight up: Mentioning it even thought I think it’s highly unlikely. For one, I’m assuming the Mavs are going to get Goran Dragic on their taxpayer midlevel, so they won’t need another point guard. More importantly, I think the Knicks as an organization and Tom Thibodeau in particular still value Rose immensely.

• Cam Reddish and Nerlens Noel: The Knicks might be amenable to taking back less in this trade than Cam & Alec since Noel is a more negative asset than Burks. At the same time, there’s some ugly history between Dallas and Noel involving the extension he almost signed, leading to his current lawsuit against Rich Paul. The Mavs also don’t need another center with Christian Wood in house and Dwight Powell still there.

• Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel: Again, the Noel thing. Also, this is a deal that would need to include Frank Ntilikina coming back.

• Julius Randle, with Dallas trading other stuff. This works under the cap if the Mavs send out an additional salary. That salary can be Maxi Kleber, but only if Brunson’s new deal starts at $28 million. Perhaps both sides agree on a contract that has descending value - a Brock Aller Special - but the bigger issue is that the Mavs love Kleber. Reggie Bullock also works here, and allows Brunson’s new deal to start at $26 million. Again though, Dallas likes Reggie and probably doesn’t want to give him up. Powell, on the other hand, is far more expendable than both following the Christian Wood trade, and is on an $11 million expiring contract. This would give New York a surplus of centers though, and would likely only make sense if Mitchell Robinson wasn’t back. The other option would be to flip Powell to a third team, but that would likely require an additional asset to incentive whoever took him on.

This last option is probably just my we dream, but before we finish up…

Why Randle?

Let’s close the loop on Lowe’s Russell / Warriors article I referenced above.

The Mavs certainly know that Julius Randle is not the ideal supporting piece for Luka Doncic. In fact, someone with knowledge of their thinking told me as much a few weeks ago, and it’s not hard to figure out why. Aside from the concerns about his defense and whether he’s mentally fit to contribute to a winning team, Randle’s outside shot remains a massive question mark following his regression this season. The most important thing to put around a ball-dominant guy like Luka is shooting. That’s why the Mavs paid such a price for KP, it’s why they ran Kleber-at-center lineups throughout the playoffs, and it’s why they just made a deal for Christian Wood.

But the Mavs also know something else, and it’s that Luka will never have enough left in the tank to finish a long playoff run if he continues to do this much heavy lifting. That’s why Brunson and his 27 postseason usage rate would be so devastating to lose. They absolutely need to replace that, and none of the other sign & trade options provide that answer. Luka can’t play 48 minutes a night, and when he sat this season, Brunson was able to keep the offense afloat and then some.

Randle would feast on opposing bench lineups, especially surrounded by the Mavs’ shooting. Alongside either Wood or Kleber, Randle would serve as the functional center on offense, which is a role he’s thrived in before. With more space to work, it’s reasonable to assume he could have an offensive resurgence akin to two seasons ago.

There would of course be questions about his fit with Doncic, and it would require Randle adjusting his game to embrace more off-ball activity and become more of a roller - something he’s never done before. His previous season high in percentage of total possessions spent as the roll man is 11.2 percent, a woefully low number for a non-shooting big. This would have to go up.

For any other organization, it would be too great a risk to assume Randle gets his head on straight and figures things out to this degree, but Dallas is in a unique situation, for three reasons:

1. They cannot afford to let a single year of Luka’s career go by without making every effort to win it all. That’s especially true now, where losing Brunson could lead to an underwhelming season, which in turn could lead to whispers Doncic wants out.

2. Randle is from Dallas. Maybe some home cooking is all he needed to get straightened out.

3. The Russell corollary from above. This isn’t about Dallas finding the best option; it’s about picking the best of several bad ones.

Assuming the Mavs embraced my logic, the question then becomes whether the Knicks would be willing partners. Without question, they would demand a first round pick, maybe another top-10 protected first in 2025, along with the elimination of protections on next year’s selection. This would still give the Mavs the ability to trade away firsts in 2027 and 2029, along with swaps in 2026 and 2028. Or maybe the sides get a little more creative…New York could send Dallas back its 2023 first rounder, thereby giving the Mavs the ability to put together a better pick package to a team looking for immediate help, and instead acquire control of Dallas’ drafts in the more distant future (think a 2028 first with the right to defer to 2029) with minimal or no protections. That’s the sort of asset the Knicks might love to have in trade negotiations for a star player a little further down the line.

There are also, perhaps more importantly, basketball reasons for Randle being the outgoing piece in a sign and trade, but I’ll save my thoughts on those tomorrow.

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. drink.

2. I can’t be sure of this, but I suspect one of the final straws for James Dolan where Steve Mills was concerned had to do with his pursuit of Russell ahead of the 2020 trade deadline, and his desire to give up future draft assets to acquire him.

3. $16.3 million plus $8.7 million equals $25 million, or the amount of Brunson’s incoming salary.

4. Extending Mitch before free agency starts would be another way to operate over the cap.

5. Specifically, that the incoming money for Dallas has to be within 125 percent of half of Brunson’s new contract plus $100,000 and not within $5 million of half of his new salary.

6. While researching whether the Mavs had ever kicked the tires on Cam before, I came across this gem. The headline will make your Monday.

7. On a descending contract, this deal could still be as low as four years and $107.2 million