Knicks Answer at PG? TyTy, Ty Again…

There's a Kentucky point guard who will almost certainly be on the board when the Knicks pick. So whats stopping them from taking him?

Good morning! The draft is 10 days away, so today we check off a big box in anticipation of that day: can the Knicks find their answer at point guard, and how important is it that they do so? Much more on that below, plus some news, but first: if you’re not full subscribed…

🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 Kenny Atkinson, who was the preferred choice of many Knicks fans when Leon Rose was making his initial coaching hire two years ago, agreed Friday on a four-year contract to become the new coach of the Charlotte Hornets.

The Utah Jazz now sit as the lone open job in the NBA, and added two more names to their search over the weekend: former NBA player and current G-League coach Jason Terry, and Pistons assistant Jerome Allen. That makes over a dozen reported candidates, so it’s likely we won’t know the fate of Johnnie Bryant for several weeks. He remains one of the prime candidates for the position.

Knicks Answer at PG? TyTy, Ty Again…

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Knicks need a point guard.

As an aside, can we all agree on how to collectively finish the sentence “New York hasn’t had a point guard since…” ? I feel like there are a half dozen endings that get tossed around. If by point guard we mean “franchise cornerstone / one of the greatest two-way players ever,” than it’s Clyde, as some are fond of saying.

But aren’t those standards a bit lofty? Frazier’s replacement, Ray Williams, was good for 16 & 6 a night for half a decade. Micheal Ray Richardson played here for four years and made three All-Star teams, and then Mark Jackson was here for five and made one. Charlie Ward dutifully manned the position for a decade…shouldn’t that count for something, even in the face of middling stats? That Stephon Marbury guy was pretty good too. If he wasn’t in the midst of a dumpster fire¹, maybe his time here would be remembered differently. Linsanity was a moment, albeit a brief one. Most recently, Ray Felton brought his lunchpail to work every day and rarely left people complaining.

From this perspective, the Knicks have actually had quite a few point guards in the 45 years since Clyde was dealt to Cleveland…but that’s also part of the problem, isn’t it? Even more than New York’s failure to send a lead guard to the All-Star game since Jackson’s invite 33 years ago, the transient nature of the position and the seemingly constant shuffling from one guy to the next make all the “New York hasn’t had a point guard since…” critiques totally valid.

What’s the Point?

So why did I pick a perfectly fine Monday to take us down this little rabbit hole? Simple: as the draft approaches and the Knicks have yet another chance to draft a possible point guard of the future, I’ve been wondering how high on the priority list filling that void needs to be. As the game continues to evolve, we’re consistently being forced to re-evaluate exactly what a point guard is, and whether - contrary to some of our most ingrained beliefs - the outsized role in directing an offense that we instinctively attribute to point guards is now a relic of a bygone era.

In the NBA today, pretty much every team has either two or three guys who they rely on to initiate the offense. Let’s split the difference and say there are 75 total². By my count, about a third of those guys are nominal point guards. “Nominal” doesn’t mean “traditional” though, because in that sense, you could argue that just one initiating point guard - that lone wolf, Chris Paul - fits into our most classical definition of the position. The rest fall somewhere on a sliding scale that terminates into a muddled morass where positionality itself becomes blurred. For example, is Kyrie Irving a point guard? Jalen Brunson? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? All of these guys have point guard qualities in some sense, but what does that even mean anymore? And does the answer matter?

There’s no question that the preferred archetype for a point guard in the league today is one who is the size of a wing. It’s why top-three picks have been used on Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic, LaMelo Ball and Cade Cunningham in the last seven years alone. The bigger they are, the better, not only for the offensive advantages provided by a lead guard who can see over and around the length of a defense, but on the other end as well, where it becomes harder for an opposing offense to seek out a mismatch.

In the absence of a point guard the size of a wing, teams would just as soon have their wing take on the responsibilities of a point guard. It’s not an accident that LA became title favorites the second they paired Kawhi Leonard with Paul George. Those guys can score, but they also drop over five dimes per night apiece. The Boston Celtics are where they are because Jayson Tatum (over six assists a game in the postseason) and Jaylen Brown (3.5, a significant improvement for him) have been dishing as well as swishing. KD, Giannis, Jimmy, Draymond, even up and comers like Siakam and Ingram…it’s the combination of efficient shot creation with between five and seven dimes a night that had them all on or competing for spots on an All-NBA team. Their teams also benefited immensely from their well-rounded games.

This obviously isn’t a new concept - Micheal Jordan and Scottie Pippen combined for double digit assists six times and have some hardware to show for it - but it feels like with the evolution of NBA offenses and the prioritization of eliminating weak spots on defense, having multiple jumbo playmakers is more important than ever.

Which gets us back to the question: what is the point of a point guard in 2022 and beyond? This might seem like an odd question to ask after a season in which Alec Burks manned the position for large swaths of time, and in doing so, contributed to many a crash & burn fourth quarter implosions. I’d argue, however, that those debacles weren’t due to Alec Burks running point; they were due to Point Burks being relied upon to create offense. If Julius Randle and RJ Barrett were more efficient creators, few would have been complaining about Burks because he’d have had a very different role - one limited to hitting open jumpers, attacking closeouts and playing solid defense instead of initiating offense with pick and roll after pointless pick and roll.

Before you get frightened, this isn’t an argument in favor of bringing Burks back in the same capacity for another go ‘round of “why, God…why!?” I am, however, thinking about the point guard position as I look at yet another draft in which - stop me if you’ve heard this one before - there are no sure things where the Knicks select.

3 & D PG

In my very first draft profile this offseason, I highlighted Dyson Daniels. Daniels, as I noted in the writeup, is probably never going to be a primary or even secondary initiator on a good team, but has basically every other quality you could want in a nominal point guard who doesn’t create offense. I thought of that profile again as I read Fred Katz’ excellent piece from the end of last week, in which he spoke to an assistant GM and a scout about a number of draft prospects. Here was what the GM said about Daniels:

I do think he’d be a nice player to have if you have some wings who are going be your main creators and you just need a pseudo-point guard who is more of a secondary ballhandler because he’s big. I think he’s going to end up being big and physical and I like a lot of things about him. But yeah, he’s probably not the full-time offensive engine, so putting him alongside other guys who can do that is going to be where he’s more valuable.

When asked why he thought Daniels wouldn’t wind up as a main offensive engine, the GM was pretty blunt, saying that Daniels “doesn’t quite have the elite burst and doesn’t have a great creative handle to get by guys,” and while he showed promise from deep, “his shot doesn’t translate great to shooting off the dribble.” Translation: absent major unexpected growth in a key area or two, you’re not looking at a No. 1 or a No. 2 on a good team.

And guess what? Barring something unexpected, Daniels is still going to go in the top 10, probably somewhere between five and nine if I had to guess. If that seems high for someone that is unlikely to ever make an All-Star team, may I remind you that Marcus Smart - current starting point guard for the Eastern Conference Champions, recently named DPOY, and heart and soul of the Boston Celtics - was selected 6th overall in 2014. I doubt they regret the choice.

Smart reminds me a lot of Daniels in that the only major question about him was his jump shot. As long as he figured that part of his game out, he’d probably wind up as the third best guy on a really, really good team. He did, just enough, and now, he is. It wouldn’t shock anyone if Daniels followed the same path.

I’ve also been thinking about Smart because he was ostensibly the “worst” starting point guard among the final eight playoff teams. Five of the other seven - Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Chris Paul, and James Harden - were 2022 All-Stars, while Kyle Lowry is a 6-time All-Star and the second most important guy on Toronto’s 2019 title team. The seventh, Jrue Holiday, occupied much the same role for the 2020 champion Bucks as Smart does for Boston, albeit with more scoring punch and far better shooting.

Even so, there are commonalities between the three non-"star" point guards (I’m tossing Lowry in with Jrue and Smart at this stage of his career): incredible switchability on defense, late-clock creation if the initial offensive set doesn’t produce results, enough outside shooting, and perhaps more than anything, dogged, tone-setting toughness.

This archetype is perfect for a team that’s lucky enough to have multiple All-Stars (Giannis/Middleton, Tatum/Brown, Jimmy/Bam) elsewhere on the roster. Even if we expand our reach a little further and look at the other eight teams that comprised the eventual playoff field, we continue to find the same mix of guys. We had a few All-Star caliber shot-creators (Trae Young, Kyrie Irving), slightly poor man’s versions of that archetype (Fred VanVleet, CJ McCollum, Mike Conley, D’Angelo Russell), another player in the Smart/Jrue/Lowry mold (Lonzo Ball) and finally, filling in for the injured Jamal Murray, Monte Morris of the Denver Nuggets.

Great…for a Backup

At the moment, Morris is probably neck and neck with Tyus Jones of Memphis for a bit of damning praise they’ve nonetheless embraced: best backup point guard in the NBA.

Those two guys don’t share every trait - Morris is more consistent from deep, while Jones is a superior distributer and defender - but they do have quite a bit in common. Primarily, they might be the two best point guards in the NBA at taking care of the ball, consistently finishing amongst the league leaders in assist to turnover ratio. They also do the lion’s share of their damage from the midrange and don’t get to the rim nearly as often as most of the league’s top guards. Their respective skill sets may be imperfect but are valuable nonetheless, and it’s no coincidence that both guys signed nearly identical three-year extensions off of their rookie deals, paying each about $9 million annually³.

So it is perhaps no surprise that an assistant GM (again, hat tip to the excellent Fred Katz article here) recently tabbed Jones and Morris as the most likely comps for one TyTy Washington, who will perhaps be the best point guard on the board when the Knicks are on the clock 10 days from now. With all of the rumors that have circulated since the season ended, perhaps the most surprising thing is that until last week, the Knicks - in need of a point guard and constantly linked to any player who has ever stepped foot into the state of Kentucky - hadn’t been tied to Washington more heavily.

That changed a little bit after TyTy attended New York’s recent prospect workout, along with Daniels and Malaki Branham, and was wined and dined by Worldwide Wes the night before. Does that mean he’s on their radar? Or was this an example of New York doing a solid for a Kentucky kid, perhaps looking to raise his draft stock a bit?

(It’s interesting to note here that Washington shares an agent - Kevin Bradbury - with the aforementioned Tyus Jones, which is something that could cut both ways. Might Bradbury want to steer the young point guard away from a Thibideau-coached team, where his playing time might be scant? Or might the Knicks be trying to curry favor with Bradbury, as Jones is set to hit unrestricted free agency in less than three weeks?)

We won’t know what New York thinks of Washington until draft night, but assuming they’re unable to trade up - possibly for Ivey, or maybe even for Daniels - would trading down for someone like Washington make sense?

A Tale of Two Seasons

As with nearly every prospect in every draft, it’s impossible to know how a someone’s game will continue to develop at the next level. This is particularly difficult with TyTy because of the way his freshman year at Kentucky started…and then the very different story of how it ended.

Through 17 games, Washington was incredible, averaging 14.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 51.5 percent overall, 42 percent from deep and 82 percent from the line. That impressive stretch culminated in two monster outings in a 3-game span, the first of which saw Washington break John Wall’s school assist record with a 17-dime gem against Georgia:

That game was notable for several reasons.

Primarily, it was the first time Washington started at point guard all season long. With normal starter Sahvir Wheeler sitting out with an injury he suffered in the previous game, TyTy took the wheel and looked the part of a lead guard.

That included dropping dimes in a variety of ways, but perhaps just as importantly, not giving the ball away. Washington had just two turnovers against the Bulldogs. That stingy total wasn’t a one-game aberration, as TyTy finished the season with an impressive 2.35 assist to turnover ratio (and had this mark much closer to 3-to-1 over his first 17 games), a trait that bodes well if he’s to follow in the footsteps of guys like Jones and Morris.

Two games later though, Washington one-upped himself with a performance that had him looking like more than a caretaker-style, high level backup option at point guard.

On just 13 shots, TyTy put up a season-high 28 points in a 107-79 dismantling of Tennessee. In the game, Washington showed a three-level scoring profile that briefly had scouts pegging him as a top-10 pick. In addition to one glimpse of an off-the dribble three…

…he repeatedly got into the teeth of the Vols’ defense and executed almost to perfection when he got there, hitting 8-of-9 two-point field goal attempts and going a perfect 6-for-6 from the line.

Several of those makes were from Washington’s preferred real estate in the midrange, which is where he operated most effectively when things were going well. Again, it’s hard not to draw parallels with Jones and Morris. Like Washington, neither of those guys is an elite athlete, and thus struggle to get to the rim with any regularity, but they more than make up for their proficiency in other areas. Through those first 17 games, TyTy was doing the same:

Things were going so well after that Tennessee outing that the freshman was drawing comps to another Kentucky frosh who slowly but surely worked his way up draft boards before eventually settling in as a late lotto gem. Unfortunately for Washington, any comparisons to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander started to go out the window shortly after that game, when TyTy suffered the first of a couple of late-season injuries that resulted in missed time and decreased production.

Were those injuries responsible for a final 14 games in which he averaged just 10 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists while shooting 36.2 percent overall, 27.7 percent from deep and 70 percent from the line? The consensus seems to be that Washington’s limitations extend farther than just his playing hurt. As I mentioned above, he doesn’t have the sort of burst that allows him to get all the way to the rim and doesn’t have the handle to make up for it. In that sense, there’s an interesting dichotomy between TyTy and the other candidate to be the first non-lottery point guard off the board, Notre Dame’s Blake Wesley.

Higher Ceiling, Lower Floor?

Wesley has a ton of flaws, starting with an uninspiring .404/.303/.657 slash line, some rough finishing numbers, and a questionable feel for the game that resulted in many bad shots and a barely even assist-to-turnover ratio.

He’s more a point guard in theory than actuality at this point, but he also does things you can’t teach:

There’s some thought that if the 19-year-old Wesley went back to Notre Dame for a second season, he might be next year’s version of Jaden Ivey, who went back to school to work out the kinks in his game. If the Knicks were willing to be patient and bank heavily on their development staff, Wesley might be their best bet for a lead guard in the star mold that wouldn’t require moving heaven and earth to trade up for Ivey himself.

On the other hand, there’s not much of a track record of guards in Wesley’s mold falling outside the lottery and going on to big things in the NBA. Dejounte Murray is probably the closest thing, and at least with him, there was a defensive backbone to his overall portfolio that the Spurs knew they could fall back on if nothing else. Wesley is far more boom or bust⁴.

Given how the Leon Rose regime has valued certainty over ceiling with their draft record thus far, I’d actually admire and appreciate a Wesley pick. I’m not as sure about Washington. In addition to all of the other similarities between him and the league’s best backups, he has a low 3-point attempt rate (barely above 30 percent) and a very poor free throw attempt rate (just under 20 percent).

Hand in hand with all of that is a troubling tendency to be overly reliant on his midrange game. As I’ve noted many times in regards to Immanuel Quickley, this is a great tool to have in the toolbox, but it’s a slippery slope between that and overkill:

The last part to factor in here, especially in light of the roles that guys like Smart, Jrue and Lowry have occupied over their NBA careers and the role that Dyson Daniels figures to settle into, is defense.

Washington measures nearly 6'4" in shoes and has a decent 6'8" wingspan that allowed him to rack up 1.6 steals per 36 minutes, but he could still go either way as far as being a plus or a minus on that end of the floor in the NBA. As we watch guard after guard get hunted in these playoffs, TyTy’s questionable ability to guard up a position at the next level has to be a concern:

When you take all of the above into consideration - ceiling, floor, strengths, weaknesses, etc - I’m not sure if Washington has what it takes to outkick his draft coverage. If he does, he’ll have to tread a unique path. He doesn’t seem to have the defensive chops of guys like Jrue Holiday (taken 17th) or Kyle Lowry (taken 24th). He doesn’t have the speed of Dejounte Murray (taken 30th). He isn’t the shot maker that 33rd overall pick Jalen Brunson was over his last two years at Villanova. He’s isn’t the size of a wing like Malcolm Brogdon (taken 36th) or Spencer Dinwiddie (taken 38th). And he certainly doesn’t shoot it like Fred VanVleet (undrafted).

And then there is this final knock against TyTy’s case: New York has a pretty damn good Kentucky point guard already on the roster. Since being drafted but especially over the final quarter of last season, Immanuel Quickley sure looked a lot like what the fully actualized version of Washington figures to be. If that guy is here now, and TyTy doesn’t have an obvious “if he figures out X in his game, we’re definitely getting Y upside,” then does it really make sense to invest a pick in a likely high-level backup?

So even if the Knicks do trade down, I would be surprised if it is with Washington in mind. And if that means we still have to hear about how New York hasn’t had a point guard since Clyde? So be it. We’ve lasted this long.

What’s one more year?

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe to JB’s Metropolitan, or his new hockey newsletter, Isles Fix. See y’all soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. Some of which, granted, may have been his doing.

2. Recall my newsletter from late April where I went through the role of various “third bananas” in the league today. In that newsletter, I noted that 71 players this season had a usage rate of 23 or higher while meeting minimal minutes and games played requirements.

3. Jones signed his 3-year, $26.4 million offer sheet with Memphis in 2019, while Morris extended last summer for three years and $27 million.

4. Also, here is your obligatory “Blake Wesley is repped by CAA and participated in the pro day that New York’s braintrust were front and center for” footnote.