One Journey Ends, Another Begins

41 wins. The fourth seed. Home court. Who'd have thunk it?

Good morning! The regular season is over, but the fun is just beginning.

This week will feature a ton of content to get you set for the Knicks upcoming first round matchup, in which they’ll have home court advantage as the East’s fourth seed against the Atlanta Hawks. For today though, we’ll take a look back at the 2-0, heart-palpitation inducing weekend that got them here, plus some other odds and ends.

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Giddy up…

The Teflon Don

Game 71: Knicks 118, Hornets 109 - “My cardiologist says the season needs to be over.”

⌚️ Quick Recap: The Knicks shot out to nearly 20-point leads in each half, and both times, the Hornets went on an 8-0 run to keep the game in reach. While their offense looked unstoppable at times, New York’s defense wasn’t up to snuff, giving up 45 points over a 12-minute stretch in the second half and staking the Hornets to a 4-point lead with under seven to go. A rock fight then ensued, with 10 total points scored between both teams over the final 6:45 of regulation, but the Knicks dominated overtime thanks to Julius Randle kicking to open shooters to secure another triple double and win No. 40.

💪 Unsung Hero: The Knicks were in a world of hurt at the end of the third and early fourth quarter, allowing the Hornets to go on a 12-0 run to turn an eight-point deficit into a four-point lead. Thankfully, it was once again Alec Burks to the rescue, as he scored or assisted on 12 straight Knick points to get them back ahead.

Burks was New York’s de facto closing point guard in this game. Thibs tried to go back to that well on Sunday, but Burks had a few miscues and was replaced by Derrick Rose late in the fourth (who wasn’t exactly great himself, giving up an egregious steal to Tremont Waters that lead to an easy fast break, bringing the Celtics within one).

For as much as the Elf-ant in the room lingers as the biggest question hovering over the Knicks postseason, who Thibodeau turns to to run the offense down the stretch of games is arguably more significant. If we assume that Randle, Bullock and RJ will be on the floor with a center to close games more often than not, one figures that either Rose or Burks will be on the bench late.

Guess we’ll have to see which hand is hotter when it counts.

🕐 Like Clockwork: It’s hard to find a game this season where the Knicks don’t have an extended stretch of play where they can’t seem to throw the ball in the ocean.

On Saturday against the Hornets, it came in the last four and a half minutes of regulation, when they did not score a single point. On Sunday, it was five minutes with zero points in the middle of the fourth. On Thursday, they scored just eight points in the first seven minutes of the third. On Tuesday, it was six points over the final seven and a half of regulation. Sunday, three in five in the late third. Keep going back and you’ll keep finding more examples.

There’s little rhyme or reason to when it happens, but it usually starts with an open miss or two, which leads to a sticky ball, which leads to nothing good. Even so, the Knicks are a box out away from going 5-0 in the above games, and all of these teams are still alive, so maybe this is just New York’s lot in life: they can both stop and be stopped, but more often than not, they’ll come out on top.

Still, it would be nice if they could figure out these little sleep sessions before next weekend.

Game 72: Knicks 96, Celtics 92 - “My cardiologist quit.”

⌚️ Quick Recap: The Knicks started in an offensive lull, seemingly unable to get past the reality that they were playing a team missing almost all of its rotation regulars. New York eventually woke up and took a 15-point cushion into the half and managed to push the lead to 21 late in the third. They went up by 17 on a Taj Gibson layup with 7:38 to go…and then proceeded to give up 15 straight to Boston. The lead was briefly reduced to one, but the Knicks defense pitched a shutout over the final 2:13 to hang on.

😵 What, Me, Worry? Did I enjoy the fact that the Knicks nearly blew a commanding lead to a glorified G-League squad? No, no I did not.

Was I slightly concerned that a game with no Tatum, Brown, Kemba, Smart, or any other Celtic of note was a Luke F—— Kornet made-three away from being tied with under two to go? Why yes, yes I was.

Is this likely anything more than a team that had played 71.87 games looking a bit too longingly at the approaching finish line and briefly letting their guard down? I doubt it. Let’s start the playoffs already.

🚀🎅☀️ Substack Needs an Elf Emoji: It’s just cruel now.

The only question is who’s getting the larger brunt of the cruelty: Elf, who has to struggle in front of an entire fan base, or the fan base that has to watch him.

After going 0-for-4 for the second time in three games, Payton is now 8-for-33 over his last seven. He presents enough hideous monstrosities on a nightly basis to make P.T. Barnum blush.

The low point has to be a moment in the early third when, after driving on Luke Kornet earlier in the game and getting summarily dispatched, he thought the second time would be the charm. Nope.

This play actually prompted a small chuckle from newly minted Hall-of-Famer Mike Breen, not in a “ha ha” sort of way, but in a “I have to shake my head and laugh because I’ve run out of words” sort of way. Naturally, Payton was late getting back, and the Celtics got an open three on the other end.

I’ve run out of words to describe what we’re seeing from player who makes 2018 Emmanuel Mudiay look like Allen Iverson. He’s a man in the middle of the woods with neither a map nor a flashlight, and the sun has set hours ago.

The Knicks have survived it for 72 games, but we - and Tom Thibodeau - know things are about to get much tighter.

💫 Stars of the Weekend 💫

⭐️ Reggie Bullock: After going 5-for-9 from deep on Saturday and 4-for-7 on Sunday, Bullock went into last night’s games 12th in the league in 3-point attempts per game since March 4, and 3rd among those 12 players in accuracy, trailing only Steph Curry and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

That date is notable because as I wrote here a few weeks ago, I’m told that that’s right around the point in the season when Bullock was strongly encouraged by Julius Randle to shoot more whenever he was open behind the arc.

Bullock has become indispensable to Tom Thibodeau. Since April 14, he’s 6th in the league in minutes played¹, and now almost always closes games. It figures he’ll get the Bogey assignment against the Hawks as his two-way tour de force of a season continues.

⭐️ ⭐️ Nerlens Noel: The most frustrating part about New York’s bouts of defensive malaise is that there are periods of time when their ability to stop opponents is on par with any team in the league². No one exemplifies that occasional inconsistency better than Nerlens Noel.

On one hand, as a pick and roll defender, he’s not as physically imposing or as much of an athletic freak as Mitchell Robisnon (and really, this side of Rudy Gobert, who is?). It also feels like he can pick his spots too much at times, where a little more assertiveness could be the difference between a successful defensive possession or not. He can be faked out by savvy operators.

On the other hand, Saturday was Noel’s sixth game with at least four blocks³ and two steals this season, which ties him with Myles Turner for most in the league. No other player has more than three such outings.

Then on Sunday, he had three blocks and three steals, his third time pulling off that feat this season, which puts him one behind Anthony Davis, who has four such occasions.

And the craziest part? His most impressive possessions in each game didn’t go down on the box score.

Aside from the ground he covers on this play from the center position and the fact that he never detaches from his Cody Zeller, notice how Noel’s body position is always at the exact angle to the ball that it needs to be to prevent the Hornets from getting into their desired action.

Few centers who offer legitimate rim protection are also able to move this well. It’s why Noel was the No. 1 recruit in the nation and would have been the first pick in the draft had he not gotten injured at Kentucky.

Then on Sunday, Noel was the only thing standing between Carsen Edwards and an uncontested layup late:

About 30 seconds later, he swatted Tremont Waters’ attempt at the rim to yet again preserve a 3-point lead. In short, the Knicks are probably facing the Bucks next weekend if not for Noel’s heroics.

Nerlens will need to play at this level for every minute he’s on the court against Clint Capela. Noel missed the first game against Atlanta and the numbers suggest he was New York’s best option in the latter two⁴. If he brings the above level of play with him into this matchup, he may wind up being the most important defensive presence in the series for either team.

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Julius Randle: As Julius himself said, he wasn’t very good yesterday, shooting 5-for-17 for 20 points to go with seven assists and seven rebounds. Combined with 33, 13 & 10 on Saturday, it gave Randle just enough to finish the year with averages of 24, 10 & 6, which puts him in the company of Oscar Robertson (three times), Wilt Chamberlain (twice), Larry Bird (twice), Russell Westbrook (once) and Nikola Jokic this season to accomplish that feat.

So no, while he wasn’t at his best yesterday, its staggering to think about where this team would be this season without their MVP candidate. Against the Hornets, while he had some misses late, Julius also scored New York’s only buckets in the last six minutes, bringing the Knicks from behind. Then, after opening the overtime with two free throws, he kept drawing extra Hornet defenders and kicking out to the open man.

Randle assisted on all five of New York’s field goals in OT, and it was as good an example of any of how well the Knicks’ offense can hum when they draw the extra defender.

Even yesterday, while he had some miscues in the fourth that contributed to the comeback, the only points New York scored in the last three minutes were on a Randle drive, an assist to Reggie Bullock, and a free throw to put the game away.

Among the concerns for the playoffs, the proper balance between Randle calling his own number and trying to get his teammates involved has to be near the top of the list - specifically when its late in the game. He’s eaten Atlanta alive this season, which could be a gift or a curse where this is concerned.

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🗣 News & Notes ✍️

🏀 The Knicks have to thank Milwaukee for showing up and playing all of their guys on Saturday night against Miami, who was without Jimmy Butler and was never really in the game. Thanks to that loss, yesterday’s win allowed New York to grab the fourth seed and home court in the first round.

🏀 The final placement of the Knicks’ draft picks are as follows:

• The Dallas pick will be either 21, 22 or 23, and will be determined by a random drawing, as the Mavs finished with the same win total (42) as the Lakers and Blazers.

• The Knicks own pick will be either 19 or 20, depending on a random drawing with the Hawks.

• New York’s two second round picks, originally belonging to Detroit and Philadelphia, will be 32 and 58, respectively.

🏀 Thibs gave us another update on Mitchell Robinson, who is progressing well and according to schedule but “still has a ways to go.” While Thibodeau won’t rule him out for the postseason, the coach also said “we don’t want to take any chances with him,” and that there are a number of steps left before he can see game action. I’d be surprised if we saw him in round one.

🏀 On the weekend that Mike Breen entered the Basketball Hall of Fame, Marv Albert, the former voice of the Knicks and arguably the hoops entry on the sports announcing Mount Rushmore, announced he’s retiring after this season.

🏀 Adrian Wojnarowski dropped a piece in which he reported that “Jim Dolan made a case for suspending the league's revenue-sharing requirements for the year.” Apparently he has some backing within the league, including from some small markets, but according to Woz, the measure is highly unlikely to pass.

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One Journey Ends, Another Begins

72 games.

If you’d told me before the season that the Knicks would win 18 of those, I’d have been really surprised, but not shocked. Who knew if this regime would be above tanking, after all, especially with the top of this draft looking so promising?

22 wins, and I’d raise an eyebrow. I guess they fought hard but just couldn’t close out any of the tight ones down the stretch. It happens. Young team. What can you do. Did the kids get better at least?

26 wins? That was my prediction before the season started. What can I say….I’m an eternal optimist.

More than 30 wins, well…that’s a bit of limb to go out on. 30 means you’re in range of the play-in game, probably into May. 30 means winning almost all of the ones you’re supposed to win (which, by the way, included games against who exactly?) and quite a few that you’re not. But Thibs, man…the dude can coach. If anyone can pull an extra eight or 10 out of a rag tag group, it’s him. 30 was nuts…but not that nuts.

Now a .500 record? That’s where I’d have called bullshit. There’s reasonable, there’s optimistic, there’s overly optimistic, and there’s insanity. Far more talented Knick rosters than this have succumbed to the stink of the last 20 years and failed to win as many games as they lost. Why would this team be the one to break the curse?

Anything above .500 and I’d just have started calling you names. And not nice ones either. 36 wins? 38 wins? 40? You might as well have told me that I’d be sitting on my couch on the final day of the season, apoplectic over the fact that we might - might - not get home court advantage in a playoff series.

Because, you know, of course we’re going to make the playoffs. We couldn’t shoot, couldn’t defend, didn’t pass, and had the worst allotment of players at the league’s most important position. And that’s before you got into the serious issues.

Leon Rose, Worldwide Wes, Tom Thibodeau, a stable of handpicked (not by him) assistant coaches, a selfish, mistake-prone “best” player, a “core” piece that couldn’t even make an All-Rookie team, some unproven rookies and a bunch of retreads…

This was going to be the motley crew that accomplished what Phil Jackson, Larry Brown, Mike D’Antoni and a whole host of other accomplished hoops lifers couldn’t come close to pulling off?

Next you’ll tell me that a sixth round draft pick would go on to become the greatest quarterback of all time, or that a perpetually putrid baseball team that averaged 105 losses per season would go on to win the World Series in their eighth year of existence.

What is this, a fantasy?

No…it’s sports.

And the 2020-21 New York Knicks are why we love them.

What a season it has been. And hey…it ain’t over yet.

#WeHere

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And finally, as I promised on Saturday, I’ll be including my five favorite contributions about it what it means to be a Knick fan, one to close out each newsletter this week:

“Being a Knick fan means…”

I know many Knick fans, but my best friend from college is the one person in my life I considered a true die hard. In school, we got very excited when, for about two weeks, it looked like Eddy Curry might be something. Those were lean years, of course, but we vowed to go to the first Knick playoff game we could get to, which ended up being Game 1 against Boston in 2011 (the Garnett trip of Toney Douglas, Ray Allen dagger 3 game). In 2013, we road tripped to Indiana for Game 3, only to watch the Knicks meekly fall behind in the series for good. (Don’t worry, given our past luck, there are no travel plans in order this year.)

Over the last 8 years though, it started happening. My friend began to ever so slightly lose interest. And who could blame him? He certainly wasn’t alone. Maybe “losing interest“ is inaccurate—a bad relationship doesn’t make your interest wane, it makes you reevaluate your choices. Getting bent out of shape about every poor Knick moment, or spending energy trying to justify every move the team made as though it was a sign of a new era, over and over, like I continued to do? That was for the crazies. We’re getting older, with wives and kids and responsibilities. Why bother?

I tried one more time, this off-season. I’m no sage, but I texted my buddy after the front office and Thibs hires. “They finally have adults in the room. I think they might be in decent shape,” I pleaded. “I can’t get excited until they actually do something,” the measured, intelligent response went.

I don’t remember what game it was, but at some point he texted me that he knew the team was good again. We’ve kept in touch more often over the last several months as a result, the very packed schedule of games creating a constant back and forth. My favorite exchange:

It’s good to be back.

- Chris

🏀

That’s it for today! If you enjoy this newsletter and like the Mets, don’t forget to subscribe for free to JB’s Metropolitan. See everyone soon! #BlackLivesMatter

1. Before last night’s games.

2. And, it should be made clear, this is the epitome of a First World problem. The Knicks finish the season with the 4th ranked defense in basketball, which is the highest they’ve finished since placing third 20 years ago, in Jeff Van Gundy’s last full season as head coach.

3. He had five.

4. Robinson missed the final two games against the Hawks this season. During those games, the Knicks had a 113.0 defensive rating with Noel on the court and a 131.5 rating with Taj in the game.