Great points, and fwiw (not much), I think your view on the pick’s functional role in trades isn’t really that objectionable. Despite that, it seems like the context of an unusually crowded field (11-14 teams with +3000 championship odds, depending on the source, with 6 consistently ahead of the Mavs in the West) is quite noteworthy when considering this pick’s upside, even if an older team suffering injuries or imploding seems more likely. To that end, wouldn’t the pick’s current value as little more than a throw-in appear to have far more upside than downside relative to it’s expected outcomes (i.e., wouldn’t moving up ~5 spots to ~16th gain far more value vs. current than the pick would lose by sliding to 30th — sort of like a value * probability concept)? In that sense, it seems like trading DSJ or Knox (and avoiding their cap hit or cap hold next year) would be more useful in accomplishing the same goal.
In terms of the pick’s role in trades, I’m curious whether you think Marvin Bagley would be “gettable” with a 2020 pick swap, the 2021 Mavs pick and maybe some cap filler (Cory Joseph?). As you mentioned in a recent newsletter, it seems like there’s a chance he could be had, and I’d imagine adding another switchable big and jumbo playmaker at the 4 could be exciting. Maybe it’s a stretch, but I’d imagine the change in front office at least opens the door.
You skip the biggest issues with the 2021 pick. The front office is targeting the 2021 draft to get an impact player and you're failing to increase the value of that pick specifically to the Knicks for this specific purpose. The final piece of a puzzle is more valuable to whoever has the puzzle completed by that single piece. If they're targeting the 2021 draft they can't trade unprotected picks in that draft. You certainly don't do it to go to the racetrack.
I'd also disagree with the injury risk you identify as key. A Doncic injury gets you into the lottery.
A Porzingis injury gets you into the low to mid 20's. The lottery changes everything and while it devalues tanking it increases the value of lottery tickets like the Dallas pick and even the Clippers swap to a lesser extent.
I think you undervalue the pick to the team in terms of their plans and I think you should be protecting an asset that is strategically key to our best chance of getting a cheap star.
The idea that you're doing it to draft a Point guard that's never played defense or a full season anywhere and needs his shot rebuilt is almost mean. There is no way he helps the team for a year or two and the media will destroy him, the team and the front office before then.
Great points, and fwiw (not much), I think your view on the pick’s functional role in trades isn’t really that objectionable. Despite that, it seems like the context of an unusually crowded field (11-14 teams with +3000 championship odds, depending on the source, with 6 consistently ahead of the Mavs in the West) is quite noteworthy when considering this pick’s upside, even if an older team suffering injuries or imploding seems more likely. To that end, wouldn’t the pick’s current value as little more than a throw-in appear to have far more upside than downside relative to it’s expected outcomes (i.e., wouldn’t moving up ~5 spots to ~16th gain far more value vs. current than the pick would lose by sliding to 30th — sort of like a value * probability concept)? In that sense, it seems like trading DSJ or Knox (and avoiding their cap hit or cap hold next year) would be more useful in accomplishing the same goal.
In terms of the pick’s role in trades, I’m curious whether you think Marvin Bagley would be “gettable” with a 2020 pick swap, the 2021 Mavs pick and maybe some cap filler (Cory Joseph?). As you mentioned in a recent newsletter, it seems like there’s a chance he could be had, and I’d imagine adding another switchable big and jumbo playmaker at the 4 could be exciting. Maybe it’s a stretch, but I’d imagine the change in front office at least opens the door.
You skip the biggest issues with the 2021 pick. The front office is targeting the 2021 draft to get an impact player and you're failing to increase the value of that pick specifically to the Knicks for this specific purpose. The final piece of a puzzle is more valuable to whoever has the puzzle completed by that single piece. If they're targeting the 2021 draft they can't trade unprotected picks in that draft. You certainly don't do it to go to the racetrack.
I'd also disagree with the injury risk you identify as key. A Doncic injury gets you into the lottery.
A Porzingis injury gets you into the low to mid 20's. The lottery changes everything and while it devalues tanking it increases the value of lottery tickets like the Dallas pick and even the Clippers swap to a lesser extent.
I think you undervalue the pick to the team in terms of their plans and I think you should be protecting an asset that is strategically key to our best chance of getting a cheap star.
The idea that you're doing it to draft a Point guard that's never played defense or a full season anywhere and needs his shot rebuilt is almost mean. There is no way he helps the team for a year or two and the media will destroy him, the team and the front office before then.