Good morning. The Knicks are back in action tonight at home against the Magic. Tip off is at 7:30. KAT and Deuce are questionable while Jalen Brunson is probable. For Orlando, Paolo Banchero and the Wagner brothers are out, while both Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris missed last night’s game against the Jazz.
Game 36: Bulls 139, Knicks 126
The first half went well enough with Jalen Brunson leading the way on offense, but the defense never kept the Bulls down for long, and Chicago was down 72-63 heading into the break.
The third quarter of doom returned with a vengeance as the visibly exhausted Knicks were outscored 41-17. The Bulls hit 7-of-9 from deep against a Keystone Cops-inspired defense, while New York went 0-of-7.
Karl-Anthony Towns almost single-handedly led a fourth quarter comeback by the reserves, scoring 25 of his 44 points in the final frame, but it was too little, too late. Towns left in the final minute after a hard fall.
Deuce McBride missed his third straight game with a sore hamstring.
Longtime readers may recall that this is not the first time I’ve used the “Tired” heading for a newsletter, but I recycled it today for obvious reasons. Before I get to talking about those reasons and whether or not they should be cause for serious concern, let’s take a quick look back at the two previous missives with the same title.
“Tired” - December 9, 2021: I added insult to injury in this newsletter by getting the final score wrong, mistakenly writing that the Knicks had beaten the Pacers in Indiana 122-102 instead of the other way around. Wishful thinking.
This loss dropped the Knicks back under .500 after a momentary reprieve the night before (yes, this was also the second night of a back to back). They would go on to lose the next three games - against the middling Raptors, the defending champion Bucks and soon to be champion Warriors - before briefly resuscitating their season with a 10-5 stretch that got them back over .500. After that, the wheels fell off, Tom Thibodeau nearly lost his job, and the team was in the market for a new point guard the following summer.
In retrospect, while this loss was the latest piece of evidence that the ‘21-22 group had lost their #WeHere spirit, the reality is that they just weren’t very good. Even so, the season was far from over, and their best (and worst) was yet to come.
“Tired” - January 19, 2023: Re-reading this nearly two-year old newsletter, which recapped a 116-105 loss to the lowly Wizards, was a great reminder that history never fails to repeat itself:
The Team is Gassed and Needs a Trade. Since Thibs went to his current rotation a month and a half ago, out of all the critiques I could levy, that they’ve ever dogged it isn’t one of them. The effort has remained impeccable and it has largely produced wins, including seven of nine going into last night. That the team would suddenly pick yesterday to mail in a winnable game seems to go against everything we’ve been seeing.
The far more logical explanation is that this was a group feeling the effects of back to back battles on Sunday and Monday, including one absolute war that went into overtime. That would not only explain their being a step slow on defense, but being slow to pursue rebounds (Washington ended up with 20 offensive boards) and missing so many threes (7-for-26).
The issue is that Tom Thibodeau is between a rock and a hard place. The starters may be gassed from overtaxation, but the bench unit isn’t giving him enough to compete.
Sound familiar? Other than the offensive rebounds (a battle which the Knicks won 18-9 on Saturday), I could have copied and pasted this blurb as today’s header.
No one would ever accuse these Knicks of not giving full effort, and by and large, it has led to wins - far more than the ‘22-23 Knicks, in fact, who were 25-21 after their own “tired” performance. But just like those Knicks, the current crop is lacking on quality depth, which has resulted in big minutes for the starters.
Two years ago, the resolution came a few middling weeks after this Wizards loss, when the front office traded for Josh Hart and added an injection of jet fuel into the roster. That may not be an option this season, first because there likely isn’t a Josh Hart-level player available on the open market, and second, because the Knicks may not have the means or assets available to swing a trade even if there was.
The other big difference between now and then is that the expectations have been raised considerably. The ‘24-25 Knicks still have two wins for every loss, still have a top-five next rating, still have a top-three offense despite their worst shooting slump in nearly two years1, and still have a starting five that has looked title-worthy when they’re humming, but because so much is expected of this group, a loss like Saturday’s is capable of sending fans off a ledge.
The question now is the same one that comes up anytime a team that fancies itself a contender hits a speed bump: are there real problems here, and if so, can they be solved?
Let’s go through some of the narratives that emerged from an 0-2 weekend…
🏀 The defense is still occasionally a mess. The evidence here is pretty incontrovertible. Chicago’s 134.4 offensive rating over the weekend was easily a season high for the Bulls. We also saw New York allow 37 fourth quarter points to the Thunder and 132 points to Washington a week ago despite the fact that we thought they had righted the ship on D.
Is this as simple as bad shooting luck, or is it something more? Losing a game to a hot-shooting group isn’t necessarily worth hanging your head about (teams are 10-43 this season when their opponent hits at least half of their threes, and each of the 10 teams that won hit at least 37 percent from deep themselves). The problem is that this is happening to New York a lot. The Bulls became the fifth team to hit at least 50 percent of their 3-pointers against the Knicks this season. That’s the most in the league, followed by Brooklyn with four such games. No one else has allowed more than three.
While luck certainly has something to do with it. New York is in scramble mode far too often, and we can no longer blame it on poor point of attack defense or bad rim protection. When it gets bad, guy aren’t closing out, rotating or communicating nearly as well as they need to. As Jalen Brunson said, “we didn’t play a lick of defense.”
He’s not wrong.
🏀 The back to backs are a problem. The Knicks have now had three back to backs involving travel, resulting in a 124-123 loss to Chicago, a 136-132 OT win against the Wizards, and Saturday’s second half shellacking.
Overall, New York has 11 back to backs remaining2 with seven involving travel. Those seven games will come against the Raptors, Hawks, Hornets, Suns and - you’ll love this - three times against the Cavs.
The good news is that back to backs are purely a regular season phenomenon. Still, the fact that they’ve been so porous on these occasions leads to the final, and arguably biggest, issue facing the team at the moment…
🏀 The depth is unreliable. As Jeremy Cohen and I discussed extensively on yesterday’s KFS Pod, there was nothing more the front office could have done to address this issue in the offseason.
That doesn’t mean it can be glossed over.
With Deuce McBride hurting, New York’s current bench depth consists of two guards who weren’t likely to be a part of the rotation had the KAT trade not gone down and a center who remained unsigned until the end of July. Beyond them, it’s Jericho Sims and three rookies.
Tom Thibodeau’s solution has thus far been to play his starters more minutes than any five-man group in the league. The result is that the Knicks boast the league’s top two players in average minutes per game (Mikal and Josh) and the top three (add OG) in total minutes played.
After the loss, Josh Hart downplayed any potential criticism of his coach by saying it’s way too early to be talking about tired legs. Regardless of his attitude, it’s tempting to use the minutes load to connect all of these unsettling dots: the Knicks’ defense is inconsistent because they’re tired, which shows up even more on back to backs, and ultimately results in opponents getting comfortable from deep.
So what’s the solution? The easiest one is probably not the one people want to hear. My dad always used to tell me that patience is a virtue, which I not only didn’t understand, but hated every time he said it. Now I find myself saying it to my own children. I’m sure they’re just as thrilled as I was.
Deuce McBride, who was seen doing quick sprints before the Bulls game, seems close to returning even if the team is being extra cautious3. Mitchell Robinson will either be back at some point, or if the team doesn’t feel they can trust his health, they will bring in someone else using his salary. Beyond that, the summer will bring about some much needed apron reprieve, and this season’s rookies will become next season’s young vets.
But this summer is a long way off for a team with title aspirations this spring, and barring a miraculous trade deadline coup by Leon Rose & Co, the Knicks will probably need a little more from the players currently on the roster in order to give themselves a real shot at a deep run.
In the meantime, the volume on these questions will only get louder with each additional 40-minute game log or defensive walkover. Title teams aren’t supposed to give up 139 points to the Bulls or get shellacked in the fourth quarter of a big matchup, although by that logic, the Celtics would have to concede their own championship aspirations after yesterday.
The difference is that Boston has already scaled the mountaintop, which brings with it a fair bit of currency. New York is still building up their own asset chest, and each bad loss seems to take away the good will that it took half a dozen victories to gain.
Them’s the breaks when you reach this level of the NBA hierarchy. It’s a good problem to have considering the alternative, but it’s a problem nonetheless.
Time to start climbing back up that hill.
💫 Stars of the Game 💫
⭐️ Cam Payne: Now that’s the kind of performance that should give Tom Thibodeau some confidence.
Payne really came on in the second half and was on the court for New York’s fourth quarter run. It was good to see him take and make a couple threes and his activity level was a welcome sight, even if his offensive foul that vanquished a Landry Shamet three came at the worst possible time. Had it counted, the Knicks would have cut the lead to five with just under six minutes remaining.
⭐️ ⭐️ Jalen Brunson: Jalen had one of his best halves of the season (26 points on a dozen shots, five assists, one turnover) before losing steam after halftime. 33 & 8 isn’t too shabby, although it would be great to see him snap out of this prolonged shooting slump sooner rather than later.
⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ Karl-Anthony Towns: One night after OG Anunoby had a scare by falling awkwardly on his surgically repaired elbow, Towns gave us all a fright by getting up gingerly after getting fouled and falling late in the fourth quarter. He eventually headed to the locker room before the final buzzer.
The big difference between these two agita-inducing moments is that the Thunder and Knicks were in the midst of a nail-biter on Friday, whereas KAT’s fall on Saturday came when the result had already been decided. Even more notably, he was clearly feeling some discomfort a few moments earlier but remained in the game regardless.
Thankfully, per Stefan Bondy, Towns felt good enough to do an “exhaustive” postgame weightlifting session and seems to have avoided anything series. Still, he’s listed as questionable for tonight, which brings those final minutes in Chicago into question.
This isn’t the first time Thibs has been bitten by leaving a player in after a game was effectively over. We’re nearly three years removed from RJ Barrett’s late game injury in Denver, and then of course there is Derrick Rose. There is at least a hint of irony in Towns’ injury happening on the night Rose was honored by the Bulls. Then again, Rose has perhaps more love for Thibs than anyone in the NBA, which should probably mean something.
Regardless, as perhaps Tom Thibodeau’s greatest advocate, even I was wondering why KAT was still in the game late. Hopefully this is the last time we have to go down this unpleasant road. On the bright side, Karl-Anthony Towns’ supreme toughness has been perhaps the most pleasant surprise since his arrival. In the tradition of Willis Reed and Patrick Ewing, KAT leaves it all on the court and then some.
Against the Bulls, that meant 44 points on 17-of-29 shooting to go with 16 boards and five dimes. You have to go back nearly 59 years ago to the day to find the last Knick to hit all those marks in a game, when Hall-of-Famer Walt Bellamy did so against Jerry West and Elgin Baylor in a victory against the Lakers.
Towns’ effort didn’t come in a win, but it shouldn’t diminish yet another prodigious performance in a season that has already been filled with them. He is every bit the MVP candidate that Jalen Brunson is. More importantly, he’s everything the Knicks could have hoped for when they acquired him.
Final Thought
Watching the decimation unfold on Saturday, I couldn’t help but think back to the nine-game winning streak, and how quickly some observers were to dismiss the accomplishment as it was happening because of the quality of competition.
I didn’t, and the Bulls game is a perfect example of why. It’s hard to win in the NBA, with any team capable of going off on any given night. Winning consistently requires a confluence of events, some of which are out of your control, but many of which deserve praise irrespective of who you play.
If we’re going to overreact to the losses, we should at least react with the same fervor to the wins, not only because it’s fair, but because it’s more fun.
🏀
“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”
The Knicks have hit 30.5 percent of their threes over the last seven games, which is their worst seven-game shooting percentage from deep since they hit 30.5 percent of their threes from March 5 to March 18 of 2018. That group went 4-3 over that stretch.
I’m not counting travel to Brooklyn or the back to back against both LA teams.
The obvious question here is why Thibs plays the starters so many minutes when the real question has to be what are the alternatives. In close games I understand the logic because the starters give us the best chance to win. I still think Thibs needs to work in a few bench guys during those games in order to prepare them for a larger role down the stretch. Steve Kerr said this last season about his bench and it absolutely makes sense because you can’t expect a guy to come in and contribute if they’ve never been in a meaningful game. Huk has experience from his time in the Euro league and Kolek seems ready for a larger chunk of minutes too. Obviously we are not going to win every game, so some games have to-be conceded earlier in order to get our starters rest and our bench some reps. Just a thought.
You reap what you sow.
Thibs cannot keep playing the starters such heavy minutes without expecting the law of diminishing returns to take effect. Even if you need to sacrifice some early season wins, breaking in Kolek at the very least will prove long-term benefit.
And for the life of me, I will never understand games where the Knicks are up 15-20 points in the last couple of minutes and yet Thibs is still playing the starters.
Finally, the front office must have known dealing all those picks for Bridges and losing iHart, and two-for one in the Towns deal would leave the bench thin with very little in the way of assets to import a strong bench.